THE BREAK-UP OF THE COLONIAL EMPIRES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. SECURITY (OR

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THE BREAK-UP OF THE COLONIAL EMPIRES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR US SECURITY

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THE BREAK-UP OK THE COLONIAL EMPIRES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR US SECURITY

SUMMARY

The growth of nationalism in colonial areas, which has already succeeded in breakingarge part ol the European colonial systems and Incries of new, nationalistic states in the Near and Far East, has major implications for US security, particularly in terms of possible world conflict with thehis shift of the dependent areas from the orbit of thc colonial powers not only weakens the probable European allies of the US but deprives the US itself of assured access to vital bases and raw materials in these areas in event of war. Should the recently liberated and currently emergent stales become oriented toward the USSR. US military and economic security would be seriously threatened.

World War IIremendous impetus to the colonial IndependenceThe UK withdrew from India-Pakistan and Burma, while the Dutch and French, exhausted by war, appear unable to suppress tbe Indonesian and Indochlnese nationalists by force, or, despite any temporary compromise solutions, to be able to arrest their eventual achievement of genuine Independence. Growing nationalism in French North Africa threatens French hegemony. While thc colonial Issue in most remaining dependencies is not yet acute, native nationalism in many of these areas too will exert Increasing pressure for autonomy or independence.

This marked postwar development of the colonial Independence movement has resulted from: <l> the release of bottled up nationalist activities in the Far Eastesult of Japan's defeat of the colonial powers in World War II and Itsof local nationalism In occupiedhe postwar military and economic weakness of the colonial powers, which has made them less able to resist nationalist demands and led them to grant concessions or even independence lo theirhc increasing tendency of liberal-socialist elements In the colonial powers to favor voluntary liquidation of restive colonialidespread support of colonial independence movementsarge group of recently liberated and other sympathetic states, particularly the USSR,reation of the United Nations, which hasorum tor agitating the colonial issueechanism for Its liquidation.

Because ol these factors, further disintegration of the remaining colonial empires appears inevitable Belated concessions by the colonial powers, at least on the limited Note Tliehis icporl is asB

Tneorganizations ot tne Departments uf Slate. Ann', and the Navy havein this icporl. the Air Inlellieeacentelligence Directorate, Department ol trie An Force, had no comment.

'In thishe term "colonial" I* usedioad sense to denote the relationshipsUie metropolitan powers and their dependent and serai, dependent areas, whether theae be colonies, mandates, protectory tea. or treaty relationships Similarly irn> phrase "colonial Usue" Is meant to encompass all dlflerence* between the colonlel powers and Ihcir deprndenl aicas iminc from the development of local nationalism.

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scale presentlyed, do not meet thc baste nationalist demand lorand are unlikely to be more than temporarily effective, except in more backward areas. The colonial powers appear unwilling for thc most part to recognize fully the force of nationalism In their remaining dependencies and to take the leadership ln guiding these toward genuine independence or self-government.

esult of the rapid breaklng-up of the colonialew power situation is developing in the former colonial world. No longer can the Western Powers rely on large areas of Asia and Africa as assured sources of raw materials, markets, and military bases. In contrast to the ever closer integration of the Satellites into the Soviet system, there is an increasing fragmentation of the non-Soviet world. This process is already largely completed, with many uf the most Important colonial and sen iolonlal areas, like India, Burma, the Arab states, and thc Philippines already independent, and Indonesia and Indochina well on the road. These new states will be free to choose their future alignments, which will be largely conditioned by theof the Soviet and Western Power blocs toward the colonial issue and their economic demands.

The colonial independence movement, therefore, is no longeromestic issue between the European colonial powers and their dependencies. It has been injected into the larger arena of world pontics and has become an element ln the broader problems of relations between Orient and Occident, between industrialized and "underdeveloped" nations, and between the Western Powers and thc USSR. Thc newly independent and older nations of the Near and Far East strongly sympathize with the aspirations of still dependent areas, to which they arc bound by racial and religious lies. These nations are further bound together in varying degree by two other Issues which tend to set them off against the colonial powers and the US' namely, the growing economic nationalism of the "underdeveloped" areas and the underlying racial antagonism between white and native peoples. All Intensely nationalistic, the Near and Far Eastern nations tend to unite In opposition lo the Western European powers on thc colonial issue and to US economic dominance.esult there hasendency toward the formation in the UN and affiliated bodieso called "colonialhose members have already brought colonial disputes into the UN and will likely take thc lead in attempting in this manner to hasten the liberation of further colonial areas Thc colonial issue and economic nationalism, therefore, will continue toource of friction between the colonial powers and Ihc US on the one hand, and the states of the Near and Far East on the other The gravest danger to the US is that friction engendered by these Issues may drive the so-called colonial bloc into alignment with the USSR.

Thc USSR is effectively exploiting the colonial Issue and thc economic nationalism of the underdeveloped areaseans of dividing the non-Soviet world, weakening the Western Powers, and gaining the good will of colonial and former colonial areas. Ever since Worldlie USSR has sought to infilttate thc nationalist parties inareas and. more recently, lo play up the colonial issue and the so-calledimperialism of the Western Powers in the UN. The poverty and underprivileged

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position of the population In these areas,atent hostility toward the occupyingorthe existence of leftist elements within them, make them pecullaily susceptible to Soviet penetration.

Consequently, the good will of the recently liberated and emergent independent nationsital factor Ln the future strategic position of the US in the Near and Far East. In addition, the restoration of the economic contribution of their colonics is important to thc economic stability of thc Western European powers, which the US is endeavoring to create. Short-sighted colonial policies, however, will In the long run cause the colonial powers to lose the very economic and strategic advantages in their dependencies which they arc anxious to retain. Unless, therefore, thecolonial powers can be Induced to recognize the necessity for satisfying theof their dependent areas and can devise formulae that will retain their good will as emergent or independent states, both these powers and thc US will be placederious disadvantage in the new power situation in the Near and tho Far East. Moreover, unless the US itselfore positive and sympathetic attitude toward the national aspirations of these areas and at least partially meets their demands for economic assistance, it will risk their becoming actively antagonistic toward the US.

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THE BREAK-UP OF THE COLONIAL EMPIRES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR US SECURITY

1. Dk-VELOPMBNT Of THI COLONIAL INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT.

A major trend in the twentieth century world power situation is the developmenttrong colonial independence movement which is in process of breaking up the colonial systems andcries of new, nationalistic stales. The primary cause of the break-up of the European colonial empires is thc growth of native nationalism In these areas, simultaneously with the decline in power and prestige of thc colonial powers. This striking growth of local nationalism is primarily the result of: (a) the rising level of poliUcal. economic, and social development In dependent areas, with resultant growing sensitivity to inequality of treatment; (b) the short-sighted policies of the colonial powers, whose discriminatory treatment of subject populations andof colonial resources without attendant benefits to these populations have aroused strong resentment;eep-seated racial hostility of native populations toward their white overlords, due largely to these policies, which has taken the formeaction against "whited) the exposure of colonial areas to Western ideas of nationalism and the right to self-determination, which has made them Increasingly conscious of their dependent status; and (c) the meteoric rise of Japan, whose defeats of the European powers in the Russo-Japanese War and especially World War II punctured the myth oi white superiority. Thc colnnial powers, while exposing their dependencies to the technological advances and democratic Ideals of the West, failed to reckon with their aspirations to achieve the same type of national self-cxprcsslon which the West exemplified.

While nationalism In dependent and quail dependent areas first reachedproportions in the early twentieth century, it was given its greatest impetus by Worldnd II. These conflicts, particularly the last, greatly weakened the colonial powers, thereby reducing their ability lo contiol their colonial holding by force At thc same time, reliance of these powers or. colonial resources and manpower forced them to grant concessions which greatly advanced the nationalist cause. In Worldreat Britain also fanned Arab national aspirations tn Older to hasten the downfall of the Turks President Wilson's insistence upon the self-determination of peoples and the creation of the League ol Nationsowerful stimulus to colonial aspirations for independence.

The period between wars saw further development of nationalism in dependent areas, particularly In the Near East and India. The repercussions of the worldof, which forced the colonial powers toolonialand shattered the world raw material puce structure, increased colonialand led to pressure for self-governmentarger share of the proceeds ol economic exploitation Indigenous nalionolists, resentful of political, economic, and social discrimination against them, tended to attribute thc depressed state of colonial

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ecou>nics to thc ineptitude of thc great powers. Stales like Iraq and Egypt, which had been under British tutelage, tended toore independent course in their affairs. The US groomed the Philippines for independence, while Britain was forced to make some concessions to the growing pressure of Indian nationalism. Thepolicies of Japan, whose propaganda stressed lhe racist doctrine of "Asia for thereatly stimulated the racial hostility of East toward West.

World War II delivered another blow to the declining colonial empires. When the colonial powers proved unable to defend their Southeast Asian possessions against the Japanese onslaught, Japan, capitalizing on local feelings, set itself up as liberator of the Asiatic peoples from white oppression. Although the Japanese actuallyight rein on Southeast Asia, theyhadowy "independence" to Burma, the Philippines, Indochina, and Indonesia which further stimulated their nationalAt thc end of the war most Allied Far Eastern dependencies were wholly unwilling to revert to their former status, and the exhausted Allies have been unable to re-establish the status quo ante. The UK labor government, no longer willing or able to hold off the violent demands of the Indian nationalists, granted independence to India, Pakistan, and Burma and dominion status toeakened France was forced to recognize thc independence of its Levant mandates, Syria and Lebanon. The US fulfilled its promise of freedom to the Philippines Korea was freed from Japanese bondage. France and the Netherlands, unwilling to relinquish their rich Southeast Asian possessions to the native nationalists, became embroiled In an uneasy struggle with indigenous regimes established in these areas.

2. Current Status ok the Colonial Independence Movement.

esult of lhe stimulation of native nationalism in the chaotic war and postwar periods, the remaining colonial world iserment of nationalist activity. This movement is in varying stages of growth in different areas, depending largely upon the level of local political, economic, and social development, but in most of them thcidoj^nd.nce. In thesia and Africa, which are al aearly stage of political and economic growth, nationalism is still inchoate On the other hand, in relatively highly developed areas like Indonesia, Indochina, and French North Africa, it has readied an advanced stage.

The two most critical colonial issues are in Indonesia and Indcchina. where the Dutch and French, exhausted by war, have been unable to suppress the localby force and, despite temporary compromises which may be worked out, areto be able to arrest the eventual achievement of native independence. The Dutch and the Indonesian Republic are attempting loctilement designed lo bring the Republicetherlands-dominated United States of Indonesia while allowingarge degree of autonomy in all bul foreign affairs and defense. In Indochina the French have been unable either lo suppress thc nationalist Viet-Minh Party or to reach mutually acceptable agreement with it. In view of thestrain of pacification expenditures on lhe unstable French economy, it is likely that France eventually will have lo make sweeping concessions to the These will constitute but another step along lhe load to independence.

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nationalism in French North Africa lias not yet reached the fighting stage, the development ol militant native independence movements in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisiarowing threat to French hegemony. In Tunisia and Morocco, both protectorates, the nationalists have concentrated on restoration ol national sovereignty under thc existingureau has been established at Cairo where exiled North African leaders like Abd-el-Krim coordinate the nationalist program. French North African nationalism Is stimulated by common Moslem ties with thc chauvinistic Arab League, which, while as yet giving little overt support to North African nationalism, may be expected to step up Its activity as soon as the more pressing Palestine problem Is settled. Mounting nationalism in Libya, particularly among the Cyrenaican Senus-si tribes. Is complicating the disposal of this former Italian colony.

Although nationalism In other dependent areas has not yet attained critical proportions, there exist well defined movements in several regions which foreshadow similar problems. In most of these areas the demand at present is not so much for immediate Independence asreater measure of self-government. In Maiaya the heterogeneity ol the population and thc relatively enlightened British colonialso far have retarded rapid growth of nationalism, but thc success ofareas In achieving self-determination cannot help but stimulate it to some extent. France's suppression of7 rebellion in Madagascar has set back the Malagasy nationalist movement several years, but tension will recur. In the relativelyCentral African colonies the low stage of development has limited the growth of nationalism, and will do soong period. The Zlk movement In Nigeria and the United Gold Coast Convention, though neither very strong, are examples of rising nationalist movements in this area.

3. The Colonial Issue ih Would Politics.

The colonial independence movement is no longeromestic issuethe Individual European colonial powers and thelt dependencies It has been injected Into thc larger arena of world politics and has become an element in the broader problems of the relations between the Orient and Occident, betweenand "underdeveloped" nations, and between the Western Powers and lhe USSR

a External Support o] Colonial Independence Movements

The newly liberated and older nations of the Near and Far East strongly sympathize with the aspirations of still dependent areas, to which they are bound by racial and religious ties All intensely nationalistic, these countries resent lheand economic domination of adjacent areas by European powers. States like Indiapt have already brought colonial issues into lhe UN and may be expccled increasingly lo lake the leadership in attempting to hasten in this and other ways the liberation of remaining colonial areas Moreover, many of these Mates are exploiting the colonial Issue in iheir own self-interest,iew to supplanting lhe Western Powers in certain areas India and China both have ambitions to dominateAsia, and trie latter also aspires to replace Japanthe major poacr in thc Far

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East. Some of the Eastern states covet portions of the moribund colonial empires:Sudan and Cyrenaica;adjacent former Italian colonies; andKong.

The colonial issue, therefore, willajor source of friction between the Western European powers and the rising nations of the Near and Far East. To the extent that the US supports the European powers on this issue, it too will incur the ill-will of these new, nationalistic states.

b. Economic Nationalism and the Colonial Issue.

The nations supporting the colonial independence movement are boundby another major issue, closely related to the struggle for political Independence, which also tends to build up antagonism toward the Western European powers and the US. This is the development, more pronounced since World War II, of economic nationalism in the "underdeveloped" countries. These countries, most of themolonial background, find that though they have achieved political Independence, their undcvclopcd economies, producing mostly raw materials and agricultural products, are still tied to those ot the industrialized Western1 nations which provide markets for their goods. They arc in essence still semi-colonial areas, for their economicupon thc metropolitan economies tends to vitiate their political Independence. Therefore native nationalists have not been wholly satisfied by thc achievement ofIndependence; they demand economic Independence as well.

The aim of this economic nationalism is to attain greater economic self-suffi-ciency through developmentiversified economy, usually by industrialization. It has led the underdeveloped countries to favor tariffs, import restrictions, and other trade barriers to protect their Infant Industries. This attitude has characterized not only thc recently liberated countries but many long since independent, like thc Latin American nations, which still have serai-colonial economies. It was most clearly displayed at the recent Havana Trade Conference, where thc underdevelopedstrongly opposed multilateral free trade and charged that the US and othernations were stunting their economic development in order to keep them permanently dependent.

With the largest segments of the colonial systems either already liberated or in the last stages of liberation, this aspect of the colonial problem becomesimportant. Thc economic nationalism of the underdeveloped nations conflicts sharply with US trade objectives and these countries tend to resent US economicOn the other hand, they urgently need external assistance in their economic development, ami the US is at present the only nation able to supply it. Thc desire for US loans and private investment will have some effect in tempering the antagonism of these slates toward US policies. However, the underdeveloped countries display an increasing tendency to demand US aidatural right, irrespective ot anyon their part, and to feel that the US will be forced to invest abroad because of insufficient internal demand for its existing capital resources, c. The Colonial Issue in thc UN.

Colonial problems have been brought increasingly into the UN, which native nationalists and their supporters have found an ideal forum for agitating the colonial

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issue Thereronounced tendency toward the formation in the UNolonial "bloc" consisting of formerly dependent states like India and the Arab nations, others like China and Iran with strong racial and religious sympathies toward colonial peoples (also characteristic of the firstndhird group like many Latin American republics and Australia, which sympathize on liberal, humanitarian, and economic grounds. The colonial bloc has consistently sought to broaden the UN trusteeship system. China, India, the USSR, the Philippines, and the Arab states contend that Articlef the UN charter, which binds members to promote thedevelopment of self-government in their dependencies. Implies that the UN should have broad supervisory powers over these dependencies. Critical colonial situations like thc Indonesian question and Egypt's demand that Great Britainher troops have been brought before the Security Council as potential threats to world peace. The underdeveloped countries have insisted on emphasizing their own economic problems in UN economic bodies. Thus, through the UN, the colonial issue has been placed squarely on the world stage and local colonial problems have become matters of global concern. The colonial "bloc" and the USSR may be expected to bring more and more of such problems before thc UN and to attempt to use Itechanism for liquidating the colonial empires

d. Soviet Exploitation ol the Colonial Utue

The USSR Is effectively exploiting the colonial issue and thc allied Issues of economic nationalism and racial antagonism In an effort to divide thc non-Soviet world, weaken the European allies of the US. and gain the good will of the colonialn pursuit of these objectives, the USSRiving active support through agitators, propaganda, and local Communist parties to thc nationalist movements throughout the colonial world;onsistently Injecting colonial and Alliedinto UN and affiliated activities.

The Soviet regime has always looked upon the so-called "depressed areas"ertile field for penetration, ond8 the Comintern has stressed the importance of stirring up discontent in these areason-colonial power, thc USSR is In the fortunate position of being able to champion the colonial cause unreservedly andbid for the good will of colonial and former colonial areas Its condemnation of racial disc rim malion pleases native nationalists and tends to exciudc thc USSR from the racial animosity of East toward West. The Communists have sought to infiltrate thc nationalist parties In dependent and formerly dependent areas and have been, as in Burma. Indonesia, and Indochina, among the most vocal agitators for independence. The Soviet Union has lound thc World Federation of Trade Unions an effective weapon for penetrating the growing labor movements in Asia and Africa and for turning them against the colonial powers.

At the -San Francisco Conference in which the UN Charter was framed the USSR foughtrovision categorically demanding eventual independence for all colonies Since that time. It has frequently Injected thc colonial issue into UNand has strenuously supported the colonial "bloc" on all colonial and allied questions brought Into the UN. Persistent Soviet support ol thc colonial "bloc" on

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purely colonial issues may win adherents from the colonial "bloc" for the USSR on other major Issues between the USSR and the Western Powers In the UN. Thus the Soviet Union clearly recognizes the potential of the colonial issue for weakening itsand has made of it an important element in the power struggle between the Western Powers and the USSR.

4. Inevitability or Fuxtuer Colonial Disintegration.

Under these circumstances, some further disintegration of the remaining colonial empires appears inevitable. Native nationalism In these dependencies will Increase as the inhabitants, spurred on by the example of thc already liberated nations, seek to emulate them. Indonesia and Indochina are appaiently already in thc final stage before full Independence, and crises will arise In other colonial areas as local nationalists clamor Increasingly for self-government. The USSR and the colonial "bloc" will lend external support to these groups and utilize the UNeans of assisting them. The weakened colonial powers, stricken by war and economic crisis, will And it difficult to cope with these insistent nationalist piessures.

The colonial powers, belatedly aware of the threat to their empires, have shown some willingness to liquidate the most troublesome of their possessions and to make concessions in others. The Western European socialist parties,ajor Influence ln many governments, appear more willing than their conservative predecessors to adopt colonial reforms although their colonial policies to date have shown little change. Some of the colonial powers have adopted more progressive colonial policies, offering concessions to their dependencies in an effort to stave off the demand for Independence. Thc UK In particular, after recognizing that Independence for India and Burma was Inevitable, is cautiously promoting greater self-government in its remaining colonies and has earmarked large sums for their economic development (although Britain's present economic weakness has prevented full development of thesehe Netherlands has granted substantial concessions In Indonesia, although clearlyto make every effort to keep this rich area under her control. France, too. while making minimal reforms in critical areas, seeks lo draw her dependencies closer to the mother countryrench Union.

Theseowever, at least on the limited scale presently contemplated, appear unlikely to do more than temporarily placate local nationalism and at most delay the demand for liberation. Differences in race, language, andtrong East-West antagonism, make Dutch and French plans for integration of their colonies into French and Netherlands Unions unlikely to succeed In areas like Indochina. Indonesia, and French North Africa where native nationalism is already well advanced Moreover, stimulation of colonial economic and social development and granting of greater political autonomy may well promote local nationalism rather than weaken It As the colonies become more highly developed, they will become more conscious of their dependent status and more insistent upon independence. They also will be better able to create viable economies and to function as Independent states. Under these circumstances limited concessions arc likely to be effective, in

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thc long run, only in relatively small or backward areas which would in any case be likely to remainrotecting power.

5. Emergenceew Power Situation in tile Former Coionial World.

As Lhe result of the gradual disintegration of the colonial systems and theof young, nationalisticew power situation is in the making in the former colonial world. No longer will the western colonial powers control large areas ol Asia and North Africa which are sources of manpower and raw materials and providemilitary bases. The economic and political policies formerly imposed by the colonial powers on their colonies will give wayelter of conflicting national policies. This process is already largely completed, with many of the most important dependent and semi dependent areas, such as India, Burma, the Arab stales, and the Philippines already Independent, and Indonesia and Indochina well on thc road These new and

emergent slates will be free lo determine their own economic policies ond future

ong period, however, these new stales will find it difficult to stand alone. Though actively promoting their own political and economic development, they will remain for some time semi-dependent areas, forced to rely on the great powers for protection and assistance. Their relatively backward stage of political, economic, and social evolution, their lack of developed resources, and the absence of technical skills and education among the mass of their peoples make them dependent upon outside help in their development Militarily, they will be unable to withstand any major power. Economically, they will still be undeveloped countries, lied to the largereconomies. The effect, therefore, of the disintegration ot the colonial systems and the withdrawal of the colonial powers is the creationower vacuum in the Near and Far East.

There is danger that unless the Western European nations, and with them the L'S. can secure the good will of these newly liberated and as yet dependent areas, they may become aligned with the USSR. Several factors' friction over the colonial issue,nationalism, and the racial antagonism between East and West, may tend to orient these areas away from the US and the Western Powers The newly liberated states will entertain some hostility toward the former colonial powers, and as these powers belong to the Western bloc supported by lhe US, this hostility will extend in some degree toward the US also US support of the colonial powers in Uie UN also has tended lo make the dependent peoples and their supporters suspicious of US motives. In the economic sphere, the new and undeveloped countries tend to resent US economic dominance and to fear that lhe US and other industrialized nations Intend to keep them economically dependent The USSR, pursuing an assimilative racial policy and able to represent itself to colonial peoples as largely Asiatic, escapes much of thc resentment of colored toward white peoples; while US treatment of its Negroes, powerfully played up by Soviet propaganda, embarrasses the US on this issue. Racial restrictions in areas like South Africa and Australia also arouse colonial resentment. Moreover, the poverty and backwardness of lhe colonial and former colonial woild, combined with lhe restrictive policies of the colonial powers, has en-

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hanccd the appeal of radical political philosophies and tended to place leadership of indigenous nationalist groups In the hands of extremists. This tendency is evident In the existence of active pro-Communist patties in such areas as China, Indochina. Burma, and Indonesia. Thus the basic backwardness of these areas, their resentment toward thc past or present dominating powers, and the existence of strong leftist elements within them, make them peculiarly susceptible to Soviet penetration. Should the USSR In turn, however, become in the eyes of thesehreat to theirthey would actively oppose Soviet domination loo.

6. Implications fob US Security.

The break-up of the colonial systems and lhe creationcries of newslates may adversely affect the present power balance of the US and Western Europe versus the USSR, particularly it Ihcse new slates become friendly toward the USSR and hostile toward the US and its allies.

a Thc loss of their dependencies weakens thc colonial powers, which are lhe chief prospective US allies. These nations rely upon their colonies as sources ot raw materials, military manpower, and revenue, and as strategic military bases. Prance, for example, draws heavily upon its North and West African empire in most of the above respects; and the breaking away of these areas, especially North Africa, would seriously weaken its strategic position. UK withdrawal from India and Burma already has substantially affected its strategic capabilities in the Middle and Far East. The Netherlands would be weakened economically by the defection of its rich Indonesian possessions.

o. Thc drift of the dependent areas away from thc orbit of the colonial powers deprives the US itself of an assured access to bases and raw materials in many of these areas, an increasingly serious loss in view of global US strategic needs and growingon foreign mineral resources. Bases in French North Africa and the Middle Easl. for example, would be strategically vital In event of conflict The growing US list of strategic and criticalof which like tin and rubber are available largely in colonial and former colonialthe dependence of the US upon these areas. The US has heretofore been able lo count upon the availability ot such bases and materials in the colonial dependencies of friendly powers; but the new nations arising in these areas. Jealous of their sovereignty, may well be reluctant to lend such assistance to thc US

c. Possible Soviet domination of certain former dependent areas or theirtoward the USSR wouldajor threat to US security.ossibility is strongest In Asiatic peripheral areas around thc USSR, where the danger of Soviet penetration is acute. Soviet control of areas like Iran. Burma. Indochina. Indonesia, or Korea, whether through occupation, alliance or friendly neutrality, would helpSoviet control of thc Asiatic continent, make thc USSR more invulnerable lo externnl altack, assure ils access to vital materials like oil. tin. and rubber, and place It astride strategic sea lanes.

d Colonial antagonism toward the US would hamper the US In its relations with

areas should their metropolitan power* fall within the Soviet orbit in event of

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war. While govcrnmcnts-in-cxile probably would be formed, they might prove unable to control their dependencies, which might seize this opportunity to further their own nationalist aims by revolt. Were the US forced to occupy these territories for strategic reasons, its task would be much more difficult if they were hostile.

e. Thc colonial issue also tends to create recurring crises which promote world unrest. Increasing resort to the UN to deal with the swelling chorus of colonialand the pressure in behalf of dependent peoplesarge bloc of sympathetic states tends to magnify these grievances out of all proportion to their local significance. The USSR, seeking to promote any unrest In colonial areas, will quickly exploit its disruptive possibilities.

Consequently, the good will of the recently liberated and emergent independent statesital factor in the future position ot the US in the Near and Far East. The breaking up of the colonial systems and the gradual withdrawing of the colonial powers from these areas has faced the US itself with thc problem of filling the gap left by their withdrawal. The US stand on thc colonial issue and economic nationalism willajor effect on the attitudes of these colonial and former colonial areas. Yet the US is currently in an unfortunate positionis the USSR with respect to such issues. On the one hand, the US has historically sympathized with the aspirations of dependent peoples for self-government and has pledged itself to this end in thc Atlantic Charier and in the United Nations.esult, lhe dependent and seml-de-pendent areas have come to expect and demand US backing in their struggle forTo the extent that the US acquiesces In or supports restrictive colonial policies on the part of the Western European nations, it will jeopardize its position in these areas.olicy will lay the US open to charges of inconsistency andand may lead to loss of the voting support of the colonial bloc in the UN. It will allow the USSR, in particular, to pose as champion ol the colonial cause and thus gain the good will of the dependent and former dependcrU areas.

On the other hand, the European colonial powers are lhe chief prospective US allies in ils power struggle with thc USSR and it is difficult for the US to oppose these powers on colonial issues These nations are anxious to retain as muchold as possible on their dependencies, partly for economicliategic reasons, but also for prestige Should these countries lose the benefits ol Iheir colonial empires, it would hamper their cr.onnnilc recovery and possibly threaten Uie stability of governments friendly lo the US.

If, however, thc colonial powers do not basically modify their present colonial policies, they will in the long run lose the very strategic mid economic advantages in their dependencies and former dependencies thateeking to retain Suchpolicies will not arrest the development ofonslism but may in fact so

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taining any benefits whalsocvcr. Moreover, attempts a: forcible retention of critical colonial areas in thc face of growing nationalist prossuie may actually weaken rather than strengthen thc colonial powers. French and Dutch efforts to suppress local nationalism by force in Indonesia and Indochina, lor example,rain on funds

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urgently'norded for reconstruction and may create such anUrjciiism that no profitable economic development will be feasible for an extended period

The colonial powers must fully recognise the Irresistible force of nationalism In their dependencies and take leadership in guiding these dependencies gradually toward eventual self government or independence. If they are to retain their favored position in theseolicy of far-reaching colonial reforms, designed to foster colonial political, economic, and social development, would do much to neutralize the more violent aspects of native nationalism and to substitute orderly evolution toward the Inevitable goal of independence for the violent upheavals characteristic ot the present situation Only throughew cooperative relationship can the colonial powers In the long run hope to retain their close tics with these areas and the maximum of political and economic advantage. Unless thc colonial powers can be Induced to recognize this necessity for satisfying the aspirations of their dependencies and can devise formulae which will retain their good will as emergent independent states, both these powers and the US will be placederious disadvantage in the new power situation in the Near and Far East.

In the economic sphere, since the USominant role in world trade and Is thc nation currently most capable of supplying the capita) needs of thecountries, the altitude of the US Itself toward lhe efforts of these areas to achieve greater economic self-sufficiency willreal effect on their goodwill. US failure toore sympathetic attitude toward the economic nationalism of the underdeveloped countries or at least partially to meet ilielr demands for capitalwill stimulate the charges, already heard, of US economic imperialism and seriously affect US relations with these areas.

The US. therefore. Is facederious dilemma On the one hand USof colonial self-determination and economic development may itself incur the charge of US imperialism and run the risk of alienating the colonial powers On the other hand, the US may be unable to afford to let its policy on colonial issues be swayed by the colonial powers it such support cf its allies lends to alienate thepeoples and other non-European countries, lay lhe groundwork for future disruption, and in the long tun weaken the power balance of both the US and the Western European nations visa vis the USSR

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Original document.

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