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SECRET
EASTERN EUROPE
SOVIET UNION
Propaganda Offensive Strenuous Soviet efforts to forestall
the proposed Atlantic Pact are, by their very Intensity, generally producing results opposite to those desired by the Kremlin. The recent speeches byLeaders Thorez and Togllarti can be expected, if anything, to intensify existing support In France and Italy for the Pact By publicly asserting that Communists in these countries would welcome invading Soviet forces, these leaders hoped to increase the fear of war and cf Soviet occupation of Western Europe and also to demonstrate the unreliability of both France and Italy as prospective Pact members. This type of attack, however, tends to reinforce other factors that have been weakening Communist influenceolitical force in France and Italy. Moreover, Communist leaders,eturn to Communist militancy comparable to that of thes, are preparing the way for greater emphasis on sabotage and subversion.
Meanwhile, Increased Soviet propaganda pressure on Scandinavia iz also having little effect. The USSR may soon revive the Spitsbergen Issue by asking Norway for assurances that no military bases will be built in the SpitsbergenThe Kremlin will probably claim that any defense preparations in the area wouldiolation cf the Spitsbergen Treatyhe Kremlin, anticipating Norwegian rejection of the Soviet-proposed non-aggression pact, is alreadyNorway of "aggression" and may use mis as an excuse for demands on Finland, possibly by proposing joint Soviet-Finnish defense discussions. These prospective maneuvers
SOVIET UNION
probably would not change Norway's desire lo join the Pact, and Finland's present Social Democratic Government would probably reject any such Soviet proposals. The Finnishmay be strengthened by the inclusionepresentatives of other non-Communist parties and thus be prepared to offer stronger opposition to future Soviet demands.
Merchant Shipping The USSR Is attempting more and more
frequently to force the masters of foreign vessels to open safes and sealed envelopes during calls at Soviet-controlled ports. Such Incidents have involved merchant ships of the US, the UK. and other western powers. The USSR probably hopes to obtain intelligence which would disclose the disposition of western merchant shipping if hostilities broke
Original document.
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