CENTRAL vimiLLiGSlCE ACBTOX
f amotion of nn ocot QiflMn yovonrKat idll binro only rirtor short-Seraroop oifharosel frcn th^oi-ct wnc ia pot lll;uly to folia: in tiiaat oro. PropofTxnde baaod on tho formtion of the mu- Gcrrisjs gcvern-neirCelll hare negligible results ia vast Goraauy ai. only alight success in Horlln end eastern Gemany, iiw croaharply affooted* thia ppvuiUMnb bo too nee-Grn acctoTs of Borlin, flbom it BlU. increase of Goroxj prca-oure for includes, cf ceot Berlin ac the twelfth Uv$ of the federal Ropuhllc.
The oxlotanoe of too govemmntc in Qcmany poses important probleoa. Despite the pooarful inflixnco nhich the and tha Uest will continue to oxort ovsr tboir resfootivo rcginoa, tho toe states are likely to proceed, withthout the ouppert of tboir respective occupation poacrs. rlth stter.pto to subvert osd absorb osoh other. Such action could involvo viclanoooalo nhloh would further ac^ravatc East-ftoat relationships in tho aro a.
Tho odairti.strativi and propaganda rpcwdwerl; far the oetnb-lirhnont of an oa.it Gomnn republic cas oorofully Thj veluno of Soviot pjxrpaganda chick ocoooponledvg two gr&ot, but tlto effectivoneos of ouch of it can bo discounted.
In nestoro Gcrnany the reperesaclone of tha establlahrient of the oast Garnsn otato trill bo negligible becauoo 'heit bso boon so long antici pa tod and generally rcgardod as of no groat slgni-fleorjQO. Tho Federal Govcmuant, preocaupiod with irternalnd difficultiestho lllgh Ccailsclon, olll linvr. Uttlr. concern
This noncranduu hax not boon 'jocrdinntad with ttoof thoof..
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uin; east Gamar statecnaidarabXo tine, aroa thoughvast- Geran gcveraaeiit Trt.ll continue to pay Hp-service to the concept cf national unity* Porder friction boteoen police unite of tbo twowill probably develop, however, and its intensity will depsnd oa tha extent to rbichR andestem Powers aro prepared to support thair respective regimes.
In saiitem Gerrany, tba formation of tho non state which Hill Include tho pro sent Soviet Zona snd tho eastern sector of Berlin mil. have little actual effect asjept to loner still further tho coraln of tha popjlatioo. Forear the present control aeohanisn kaaominal adninictrntion of Go roan affairs under the strict gjidance of the Soviet f'dlitary Administration. Under tbe nonncnt there will be llttlo chacgo in tho oparotlony of tlioso bodiou or in tho degree of Soviet control, though Torious ccopansnts cf tho osSnt-lag control mechanism iiU probably reappear as separata governmental oinlstrios. Tula government trill have little popular eupport, but -ill nevertholese bo able to enforce Ita authority by polico-stato ntttuns backed by tho Soviet occupation forocs. For isnedlater-poaos Soviet and Comnunlst spoke emeu trill continue toGeman hopeseparate peace treaty with tho eaBt German utato, earlyof troops and diplomatic recognition by the USSR and Ita satellite: Combined with ninhful thinking, those Soviet-Inspired ruoore acccapany-lag tho fornation of the nor government will probably leed the Gerocna toieabls decreeae or withdrsral of occupation forces. evelopment la not likely at present, oa according to current ootimotoe. Soviet troop withdrawal would rosult in loss of control of tho east acne of Germany. The ensuing disillusionment, plus the proapoet of an Indefinite continuation of prosont adverse conditions, will probably plugs the population into an increased apathetic acceptance ofdomination by tho USSR.
In western Berlin, the Immediate effect of tho announcement of tho nan government will produce demands for tho city's formal inclusion as tbe twelfth Land of the Federal Republic The presence of the nest Gernan capital In tho oast sector of Berlin will probably result in iaprovwiwnt of tba economic conditions in the east see tor. This improve-nont will exert considerable attraction on tho population and municipal administration of the western aeetere, if west Berlin continues to be deniedto the Federal Republic aa tho twelfth Land,
Friction between the two rcgiaos will develop, and the oast Gorman government may even ottenpt to harass tho Berlin garrisons of tho Western Powersnited degree. Inever, tho effect within Germany of the formation of an sastorn govnrnnent will, bo negligible until the too fionao"
a actio efcicb wild further ocsreraterelationships in crea. Shan Is? no EMNB tohovover,o fcraatf.cr. of an aaat Gerviraill hiTO any in;ortnni effect cufficial and unofficial relailueehips proceutly existing bcfcraan Gaxnstn IS both areas.
"iho fiSS rill atteopt to on tho east Garaon gavorrosntaosnshoa of tba) Rest dciiian SspubliCfeui^reu jot unity, he appeal ofast Gorcan state, tho USSR rill probably try to give ii tho &pfosr.:nots of Eioro indopandeiawi ihnu the Vfest has given tonorat Ciornai utate. IfR ssocoede in otrci^hocxtrvj its p'^si tioii ia Gorua-Ty, it cay ultLnatalyanat troops bo citbdrm.n.
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Original document.
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