TOR:
of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT:
L. Barrows
National Intelligence Officer for Africa Special Warning and Forecast Report: Rwanda (U)
pecial meeting held onctober, Intelligence Community analysts warned that the fighting in Rwanda holds growing potential for grave domestic and regional consequences.
o Followingctober incursion by Tutsi exiles based in neighboring Uganda, the military situation appears headedrolonged stalemate that will progressively weaken the regime of Rwandan President Habyarlmana.
o Ethnic tensions are rising, and large-scale reprisals against Tutsisf the population) would ensus if Habyarlmana is no longer able to restrain hia Hutu majority.
e utsi refugees in neighboring countries are
vulnerable to expulsion andotential source of manpower for the rebellion. Moreover, refugee burdens would increase manyfold were widespread communal violence in Rwanda to erupt.
e Spillover from Rwanda could destabilize the regimes in neighboring Burundi and Uganda.
All portions
o Libya may be attempting to play both sides of the conflict in Rwanda.
SUBJECT: Special Warning and Forecast Report: Rwanda
Military Standoff. The Tutsi-dominated rebel force that invaded Rwanda from Uganda early this month now seems well entrenched in the northern part of the country*trong, it includesombatants, many of whom suddenly defected from the Ugandan army and are capable soldiers. They are well-led and appear toogistics chain that leads back across tbe Ugandan border.
Facing them areembers of the Rwandan armyan gendarmerie. As long as deliveries of supplies from foreign patrons continue, the security forces vill be capable of preventing tbe rebels from threatening the capital city, Kigali.
Government forces are tiring, however. Zairian troops sent to bolster them performed poorly and have been withdrawn. In contrast, the rebels seem capable of holding on as long as the Ugandan border is not sealed. Moreover, their numbers may swell aa Tutsi exiles in the region join their cause.
and Belgian troops deployed to Rwanda almost certainly will not operate beyond the Kigali area. Their role is primarily to protect their respective citizens as well as the main airport. Belgium in particular ie wary of prolonged involvement and would withdrew if widespread reprisals against Tutsis flared up. Bruseels ieaase-fire, hoping the requirement for its troops will be removed.
flabYflrimana Pndtr tho Sun-
The.Incursion has magnified the President's already serious problems. Weakenedorsening economy and factionalism among the majority Butus, his regime is now under serious challenge frost Hutu allitanta aeeklng reprisals ageinet Tutsis. Habyarinane has little room for maneuver:
o Meeting the rebel demand for repatriation of refugees would be extrenely difficult given Rwanda's high population density and consequent land pressures.
o Prolongation of the rebellion vould strengthen hie domestic opponents and raise cbancee for ethnically baaed atrocities, which in turn vould seriously jeopardize external support.
Regional Raalficatlons. Neighboring states are anxious to unburden themselves of
SUBJECT: Special Warning and Forecast Report: Rwanda (U)
refugees who arrived in waves following successive ethnic upheavals in Rwanda since thes. On tha otherresh outbreak of communal violence would sea these political and economic burdens snowball.
Moreover, renewed civil conflagration in Rwanda would have serious political repercussions elsewhere in the region, particularly:
the northern or eastern parts of Uganda could test his leadership. Moreover, his international credibility (especially as Chairman of the OAU) may have been tarnished.
Libyan Meddling? Tripoli say be seeking to exploit Habyarlmana'a desperation by offering military assistance, although the Rwandan government denies making any overtures. Libya has in recent years noticeably increased Its presence in Kigali.. It has also long provided assistance to tha Ugandan armed forces and may wall have contacts with tha Tutsi rebels. In short, Qadhafi may attempt to play both sides of the conflict.
here tha ethnic makeup is identical to Rwanda's, albeit with the minority Tutsis in control of the regime. President Buyoya's efforts to restrain Tutsi hardliners will ba undermined the longer the Rwandan crisis persists.
o Uganda. where there le strong suspicion that President Musevenilind eye to the incursion despite losingoldiers as deserters, among them some of his bast. Further defections of key officers coupled with an upsurge of insurgency in
Nolo.
SUBJECT: Special Naming and Forecast Report: Rwanda <U)
(External)
Dr. James Lord, Ofc Vice President
AMB David c. Miller, NSC
Robert Erasure, NSC
William W. Working, NSC
Michael A. Sheehan, nsc
Robert Kimmitt, State/P
AMB He man Cohen, 8tate/AF
AMB Jeffrey Davldow, State/af
AMB Irvin Hicks, State/AF
Alison Rosenberg, State/AF
Anthony Dalaimer, State/AF/c
John Davison, State/af/e
William Dameron, State/AF/EPS
David Halated. State/af/ra
Robert Perlto, State/af/s
David Rawson, State/af/W
Michael R. Arietti, State/HA/BA
Vincent Farley, State/INR
Jo Lozovlna, State/IHTt
Joseph R. Dickie/State/IHR/ec
John Stremlau,
William Bums,
Edward L. Saiers, AID/AFR
David Lundberg, AID/AFR
Donald Sittler, NSA
James L. Woods, DASD/af
James R. Locher, ASD (so/LIC)
Vincent Xem, osd/isa
BO John, OJCS
BGen Frank Partlow, DIA
William Thorn, DIA
Dr. Barry Schutz, DIA
Joseph Fenrick,IA
Margaret Greenwood, DIA
Joanne Johnson, dia
Thomas P. Ofcansky, DIA
DIA/DB-B (J. Moore)
DIA/DB-5E3 (Mike Culloty)
DIA/DB-5E2 (Thomas Belota)
DIA/DAH-6
2 copies)
dia/DE-NE
DIA/JSI-5B
Col. Thomas d., jcs Capt Donna Kennedy, Air Force-Nancy KcCabe, Army
John Turner, Army
Dr. Susan D. coronis, Army
Maj. T. B. McClelland,arine
corps Norman Last, Navy SA/Sec (Kat'l Security)
DO/DEI/Troasury Ed Rush, Department of Commerce National Warning Staff
Original document.
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