INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS SITUATION REPORT

Created: 10/1/1990

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

APPROVED FOR HELEASE UBTl;1

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NARCOTICS SITUATION REPORT {MONTHLY! OCTOBER :';

ITEM I: PERSPECTIVE--COLOMBIA; GAMBLING WITH THE ANTIDRUG OFFENSIVE

ITEM b: HIGHLIGHT: ITEMAMBLING WITH THE ANTIDRUG OFFENSIVE

SIDENT GAVIRIA, FOLLOWING THROUGH ON HIS CAMPAIGN PROMISE TO

PRIORITIZE NARCOriCS CONTROL. HAS MARKED HIS FIRST MONTHS in OFFICEOLITICALLYTACTICALLYGAMBIT: Or-FERING PLEA BARGAINS TO TRAFFICKERS MHO SURRENDER MHILE PRIVATELY ASSURING US OFFICIALS THAT HE WILL INTENSIFY OPERATIONS AGAINST THOSE WHO DO NOT. GAVIRIA'S INITIATIVE PROVIDES THE GOVERNMENTAJLY NEEDED MEANS OF ENCOURAGING DEFECTIONS IN TRAFFICKER RANKS AND OF SHORING UP POPULAR SUPPORT FCH THE ANT INARCCTICS OFFENSIVE. BUT THE COSTS COUIJ) BE HIGH. IF SOME TRAFFICKERS SURRENDER, THE rNITTATIVE WILLEAVY BURDEN ON COLOMBIA'S WEAK JUDICIARY WHILE ALSO THREATENING TO REFOCUS TilP. OFFENSIVE AWAY RACKDOWN THAT HAS LARGELY L'ESN DOMINATED BY THE SECURITY FORCES OVER THE PAST ONTHS. I

DESIGNED TO DESTABILIZE THE LEADING DRUG ORGANIZATIONS, THE INITIATIVE PROCEEDS ERIES OF GOVERNMENT DECREES OFFERING TO CUT TRAFFICKERS' SENTENCES UP TO ONE-HALF IF THEY VOLUNTARILY SURRENDER, CONFESS, AND PROVIDE INFORMATION ON ACCOMPLICES. GAVIRIA INITIALLY VOWED TC EXTRADITE TRAFFICKERS WHO FAILED TO MAKE A FULL CONFESSION 3UT IATER RESCINDED THIS REQUIREHFNT, VIRTUALLY GUARANTEEING THAT ANY TRAFFICKER WHO SURRENDERS WILL NOT HE

ATTEMPTING TO DEFUSE THE VIOLENCE ANJ EXTRADITION ISSUESIME WHEN RESENTMENT IN COLOMBIA OVER THE OFFENSIVE'S MOUNTING COSTS AND CASUALTIES IS GROWING, GAVIRIA STANDS TO GAIN IK SEVERAL IMPORTANT AREAS:

EFFECTIVELY SEIZES THE PUBLIC RELATIONS INITIATIVE BY PLACING THE ONUS FOR PROLONGING THE DRUG WAP SQUARELY ON THE TRAFFICKERS. IN OUR VIEW, INCORPORATING INTO THE DECREES THE DEMANDS PREVIOUSLY MADE BY THE TRAFFICKERS TO BE SPARED EXTRADITION IN EXCHANGE FOR INCARCERATION IN COLOMBIA REMOVES THEIR PRIMARY JUSTIFICATION FOR RESISTING THE CRACKDOWN AND UNDERCUTS THEIR MOTIVATION FOP VIOLENCE.

X--ADDRESSING THE EXTRADITION PROBLEM WINS GAVIRIA SUPPORTTRONGLY NATIONALISTIC POPULACE THAT INCREASINGLY OPPOSES THE POLICY AS AN AFFHONT TO COLOMBIANENTIMENT MOST RECENTLY FANNED BY THE COLOMBIAN PRESS, WHICH CONTRASTED THE OUTCOME OF THF. MARION BARRY TRIAL WITH THETE OF COLOMBIAN TRAFFICKERS EXTRADITED AND IIICAPCEPATEO IN THE UNITED STATES.

X--BY ENCOURAGING DEFECTIONS, THE INITIATIVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REDUCE THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE ASSOCIATED WITH GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO WEAKEN TEE DRUG NETWORKS WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL INTELLIGENCE AND EVIDENCE TO APPREHEND TEE KINGPINS. FI

WHETHER SOME TRAFFICKERS WILL, IN FACT, SURRENDER REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT, SHOULD THEY CHOOSE THIS OPTION, THEY WOULD FACE LITTLE

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INDICATES THAT SPORADIC EFFORTS OVER THE PAST

OPCON,WNINTEL SEaRET

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THE JUDICIARY AND INCREASE PROTECTION FOR JUDGES HAVE NOT STRENGTHENED THE INSTITUTION'S ABILITY TO CONFRONT TRAFFICKER CORRUPTION AND INTlMID/iTION. THIS ASSESSMENT WAS REINFORCED LAST MONTHEDELLIN JUDGE RELEASED SIX OF PABLO ESCOBAR'S ALLEGED INTELLIGENCE AND COMMUNICATIONS SPECIALISTS SHORTLY AFTER THEY HAD BEEN ARRESTED, FOLLOWED DAYS LATER BY THE ESCAPEOGOTA PRISON OF THE ACCUSED ASSASSIN OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE LUIS CARLOS

ftND EVEN THE LOWER-LEVF.I. TRAFFICKERS JVERHMEN1

COUNTING ON TO SURRENDER ARE, IN OUR JUDGMENT, LIKELY TOISSUADED BECAUSE OF THEIR FEAR OF THE CARTEL'S POLICY OF SWIFT RETALIATION AGAINSTMOST RECENTLY BY THE KILLING OF THE MAIN WITNESS, TURNED INFORMANT, IN THE GALAN ASSASSINATION CASE.JJ

"AVIRIA IE- ALREADY TRYING TO SHORE CP THESE WEAKNESSES.

I HE PLANS TO REPLACEsTERoF^USTICES-STYLE PROSECUTORIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE THE POLICE AND OTHERTHAN POOR, YOUNG, AND UNPROTECTEDPOWER TO INITIATE AND PURSUE CASES. HE HAS ALSO PROMISED TO REDOUBLE EFFORTS TOORE OF SPECIALIZED JUDGES AND PROSECUTORS TO HANDLE THE MOST IMPORTANT CASES AND TOORTIFIED "SECURITY VILLAGE" WHERE THEY CAN LIVE AND OPERATE FREE FROM THREATS AND VIOLENCE. NEVERTHELESS,ELATIVELY SAFE JUDICIAL ENVIRONMENT HILL ONG-TERM PROCESS AND, IN OUR JUDGMENT, THERE IS LITTLE LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY ACTION STEMMING FROM GAVIRIA'S RECENT INITIATIVE WILL DIMINISH THE TRAFFICKING PROBLEM OR, FOR THAT MATTER, THE THREAT OF VIOLENCE.

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THERE IS, WE BELIEVE, SOME CHANCE THAT THF. TRAFFICKERS, SEEING AN OPPORTUNITY TO CAPITALIZE ON GAVIRIA'S INITIATIVE, MAY PUSH FOR EVEN MORE CONCESSIONS. INDEED, THE RECENT KIDNAPPINGS OF SEVERAL COLOMBIANS RELATED TO PROMINENT MEDIA AND POLITICAL FIGURES, REPORTEDLY BY TRAFFICKERS LINKED TO PABLO ESCOBAR, SUGGEST SUCH PRESSURE IS ALREADY BUILDING. GAVIRIA WILL PROBABLY RESIST MAKING FURTHER CONCESSIONS 3UT IN SO DOING FACES HAVING TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON HIS STILL UNPUBLJCIZED PLEDGE TO STEP UP PRESSURE ON THE KINGPINS. RECENT REPORTS DETAILING NEW ARMS SHIPMENTS INTO THE COUNTRY MEANWHILE INDICATE THAT TRAFHCKEKS ARE MAINTAINING THEIR CAPABILITY TO INITIATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF VIOLENCE AND CORRUPTION

Original document.

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