HEREWITH SUPPORT CABLE FOR LATIN AMERICA BRIEF OCPAS LAB 90/291 FOR SATURDAY, 1

Created: 12/15/1990

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

BEGINHIHG OF SECTION

ANr^OCIA^RDE^. H:

HAVE RALLIEO BEHIND HIS CAMPAIGN PROMISES TO SHEEP AWAY EHTRENCHED REMNANTS OF THE DUVAL IE RI ST REGIME AND TO USHER EW ECONOMIC HIS APPEARANCES HAVE ATTRACTED THOUSANDS. AND HE HAS BROADENED HIS BACKING AMONG THE URBAN RANK-AND-FILE LABOR

ARISTIDE'S OPPONENTS GENERALLY HAVE CONDUCTED LACKLUSTER CAMPAIGNS. ALTHOUGH j BELIEVES HIS CHltf PlvAL. CENTRIST BAZ IN i IS GAINING ON

BELIEVES HE CAN EXPLOIT RISTIDE SENTIMENT AMONG BUSINESS, LABORi AND MILITARY LEADERS TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY. ALTHOUGHICTORY FOR BAZIN IN THE FIRST ROUND APPEARSIUNLIKELY, HIS WELL-ORGANOALITION PROBABLY WILL WIN A LEGISLATIVE PLURALITY. ij^B

KEY ARMY OFFICERS REMAIN COMMITTED TO HOLDING THE ELECTION. DESPITE THEIR CONCERNS THAT A ARISTIDE PRESIDENCY WOULD LEAD TO PERSECUTION OF THE ARMED FORCES. THE MILITARY QUICKLY ARRESTED IGHTHING THUGS FOR BOMBING AN ARISTIDE RALLY LAST WEEK. THE MILITARY'S STRATEGY REPORTEDLY STEMS IN LARGE PART FROM FEARS THAT AHY MOVE AGAINST ARISTIDE AT THIS TIME COULD.PROMPT AN UNCONTROLLABLE POPULAR BACKLASH. I

THE BALLOTING PROBABLY HILLNLESS VIOLENCE BECOMES SO WIDESPREAD THAT THEO0-MAN MILITARY CANNOT CONTAIN IT.

Original document.

Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: