Warning Page
Terrorism Rciitvjjjf foj,
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Terrerlit Osrtua J
eventual US-lraoi thai would destroy Iraq'* eoihtarj- and eliminate furibcr reasonS preaence ia ibe ret ion Ai Umg ai Iran bethis mar happen without .it initiation, tt wiU probably refrain frocn ulna iuloy. Recent mflinunatnry staiemenu by aonve of id senior leaden, however, could snare hostile acu ataiast US interests without direct orders from Tehranl
Arncim
The fall of Cammuiuim in Eastern Europe hai not nintncantly dimlnirbed tbe ability of European tcrrornt groupa to carry out klhat cicieratioaa. In ipficcw cUmata of counicnarrorist cooperation, kftwinj and1 roups have to launch new terrorist campaiana. RifMwmi factiona may also become moreroblem.
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Review
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lo improve relations with the West, he may advocate usingo farce US troops out of Saudi Arabia. Tehran probably believes lhat terrorbl incldeau directedUS interests would be blamed on Iraq,ar. Although Iran is reaping political and economic benefits from lhe current crisis. Tehran probablyS-Iraeji rniliuty showdown eventually lhat would destroy Iraq's war machine and eliminate any further reason for tbc US military presence. gWMaaVaaaV^
Inciting tbc Mullen Mums
Supreme Leader Khamenei's call on II September for Muslims in carrybely war" againsi US uocca in the region underscored Iranian opposition to the multinational force gathering in Saudi Arabia. In hb speech Khamenei compared the present situation in Saudi Arabia to thai of tbe US Marines in Lebanon during the, possibly indicating Tehran believes an atuck oo US miliury penance! wouldS witndrawaL*JJgaa)ht /;
Khameneis message may incite radical Shin elements to carry out freelance aiucks againsi US laterals. In the past, simitar sutrmcnu by Iranian leader* have prompted Shia attacks on Saudi crTiciala and on organizations affiliated with Salman Rushdie's TA* Satudc Vtnti. Shia communities in the Gulf Arab scales and throughout Western Europearge pool of ready freelancers, puiiing US military bases and official facilities there at greatest risk, i
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Roi. of Iranian Somanta*
Khamenei's callihad aialnst US aggression might prompt extremist Shia and Palestinian group* with ilea to Iran to carry out terrorist attacks agalrut US faclllilei in (be Gulf or Wai tin Europe. Sbaykh Fadlallaa. the Spiritual Guide of Hizballah in Lebanon,given public support to Kharneoei'a callihad.
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Radical Shia clement* already appear to be punning terrorist attacks against US Interest! in Wettern Europe and the Gulf, with won threats coming from
previouslypapolice
have reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Justicea cover-nameiiballahplanning to attack Western and moderate Arab dlplomiu in several European countries.
Outlook
nTSMatBBtsjaa* the Iraniam want en eventual confrontation between Baghdad ar-.d
Washington, probably believing that it would cripple Iraq's war machine,removal of US and foreign troops from the region, and alienate thc Arablhe US and thc West. A* long as Tehran thinks this confrontationit will probably refrain from carrying out acts of terrorism thaiits improving relations with tbc West. Radical Shia freelancers witbTehran, however, may carry out atuck* against US inittcsis at anydtfectico from Iran. eaaaVJk
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Highlight* djpSlaBllkanl Dcialopi
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Trial of Appcl Group Uader War
Members of Denmark'* Appe! Croupn (rial inn September. The men Danes accuted of murder, attempted kidnapping, armed robbery, espionage, and illegal weapons possession allegedly funneled most of the funds gained from ibeir criminal activities to ibe Popular Prom for thc Liberation of Pal-esiine (PFLP) based in Syria. The (rial has attracted substantial attention because it underscores that even Denmark is vulnerable to terrorist-related aciiviiia
NoirmbcrPortrods Future Attacks
The mid-September publicationommunique by the leftwing Greek terror17Aral public document in threegroup will toorwemme operationsmrr.tr hiatus. Therecently publiiacd boot: alleging that a
veteran Creek leftist wasovember'* leadermear tactic by "Ihe CIA and other Hoot plaeon
ovember may have delayed publication of the communique until mid-September to avoid being upstaged by event* in the Persian Gulf. However, recent localaa pubucation of the controversial book on thc group and thereturnedo .ruber to the Cdmotlc center stage. Although references In tie communique to certain bigwig* and to various Greek politiceJ parties indicate thatovember has retained iu focus on domestic targets, mention of the CIA and of "agenu of the EC and IMP' icggeati ihat the group may also be planning operations against US and other third-country interests,f)
East Sawdl Arabia
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Amenta
Threat Increase*
The Morazanui Patriotic Front (FP.Mll
I* Hacks against USintcrcausince it firstsurfaced8ombing; of Peace Corps offlea in December of that rear.bui bombing wounding three US servicemen inn attackSiarenade niiack that wounded seven US soldiers in La Cetba In July IMS.us attack that wounded seven US servicemen in
[The group is closely allied witb the Popular Liberation Movement/Cinchoneroa radical left terrorist group and may actuallyartanother namesame org an! ration. These two groups directly threaten US interests in Honduras, aa well aa posing an indirect ibreat to US Oiirenswbo coight be caughterroriit operation againsi Honduran
non it small.
ultirmcralitt. rig^twing.^and jnti-Semitic.r.sy rave received some tuppori
frompublished an anti-Semitic
tnemthly newspaper, Atene National,5ts activities have been
limitedcnr-lcvd bombing* and distribution of propaganda, and Ii hat been fairly Inactive sincehenkey members were arreatcd and another kill
Caanpalgn Con da urn
Miliiary dissidents are continuing cheir bombing campaign in Manila in an effan to drive out foreign investment and to show President Aquino's Inability to
Commuaists Bomb Voice of America Sit*
The Communiat New People's Army (NPA1 bombed tbe Voice of America station aiTlnang oneptember, causing minordama
| The NPA pubhely claimed rmpomiblllty for the attack which was timed to coincide with tbc stan or base negotiations between the US and ihe Philippine Governments. Although damage to the station waaprobably because tntxperienced NPA ondre wereNPA hasrowing proficiency In the use of eiplosives over the pasi few years. Inor enample. an anicana waa destroyedecond one damaged by several bombs planted by Communistsoint US-PWIippina radio relay nation at Mount Cj'^ybo jtfjjan
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Outlook for European Terrorism {aMa**
fall of Communism in Eastern Europe has not *ign*ficanily diminished ihe willingnesses abilityuropeanoups tonhalOn the contrary, many Icriwing and separatist organisations have over the past year initiated new terrorist campaigns and have broadened the scope of their targeting.ocrariiaiion in Eastern Europe and the new regimes' thift in attitude toward the terrorism problem haveitnatc of counterterroritm cooperation with the West, it has also opened the region to greater domcatic andterroriiturope may also become more susceptibleighlwing terrorist activity as East-Wcit tensions continue to team aad European Integration progresses.JflaVaNVV
Leftist* Rebound
Contrary lo the speculation of some observers, lhe fall of East European Communism has not ledecrease In leftwing European terrorist activity. Some of thesenotably Ihe West German Red Armyactually inicniincd their attacks and demonstrated considerable shrewdness intheir ideology and targeting to the changing European political landscape. OnVaW
The Red Army Faction (RAF) hardcore, wbkh had notethal attack since aneal German Finance Miabiry State Secretaryew round of (erroriam wiih thc9 aaaasainatioo of Deutsche Bank Chairman Alfred Herrhausen. Actions this year attributed to thc RAF hardcore include aa aborted atiack against lhe West German Agriculture Mioitter in April and on assassination attempt agaiast aa Interior Ministry State Secretary in Joly. The current RAF campaign appears to be aimed primarily at West German officials and institution* involved in German reunification. East European economicand European integration. We believe thai the RAF hopesse these theme* to unite ihc
radical German left behind its cause, to expand operations into East Germany, and to sucngihen tics to other European terrorist groups:
and East European reconstruction may prove to be effective theme* around whicharner thc support of the Gerrrsun far left. Antircun-iBcnilon rallies have been held throughoutand various radical leftist g'oups have openly approved the use of violence to oppoie "German nationalism, the colonization of thc East, and an-nesation of the GDR."
mention of the "new power elite in East Oermany"AF communique issued In July indicates that East German leaden arc nowtargets, t
RAF action may Intensify in the months preceding the all-Germanurrently scheduled for December. Although there has been no specific mention of the United States in recent RAFtbe group bas made numerous references to NATO and, in the minds of the icrroriits. thc United State* remains ibe embodiment of Western imperialism. Dei pit* thc group'* current focus on GermanUS interest*rinany will remain targets of RAF viol
The RAF ha* sought to expand lis tie* to the Spanish First October Antir**cti( Real, tone* Croup (CRAPO) and Ihe Italian Red Brigade*:
Both Use RAF and GRAPO have demanded coloca-tion of their incarcerated members, and imprisoned RAF oembersjiavc held hunger strike* in luppott
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of hiaftgci . GRAPOprovided
mors! and monetary supportheir Spanish eouo-lerpar
The Red Brigade* remain dormant since the arrest of several leadersowever. Imprisoned Red Brigade* members have issued communiques cipr casing solidarity with the goal* of the current RAF camps lan; these communiques also indicate thu theroup may be mimicking the RAP'Sto marshal 1
Although tberc arc currently no indications that the RaF is planning joint operations with cither GRAPO or the Red Brigades, these groups might cooperate against commoo targets, auch as NATO
ime
Left wing terrorist groups in the Aegean have also continued violent operations over tbc past year:
Greek terrorist organizations,ay Organization, and Revolutionary Profile's Struggle (EJLAt, have carried out attacki agiinst tocak US. and olher third-countryommunique recently issuedhich has carried out assassinations against both Greek and USthat the group is cow prepared to resume operationsummer Om as I
Leftwiti) Turkishnotably Devrlmcl Sol" Dotiaict Vol. and lhc Turkish Peasant and Workers Liberation Armyalso eon-tiaued to carry out bank robberies, bombings, and
assassinationi. Some leftiti groups have recently conducted low-level bomb anacks againsi USin Turkey lo protest against what iheyto oe the growing influence of Western
Separatist Acdtlilt*
Some separatist icrrorist group* have also broadened their targeting and stepped up operation These groups may have been moiisaicd to launch freshl least in part,esire to underscore some sort of parallel between the liberation of Eastern Europe from Communism and the effort to liberate Northern Ireland from Britain and ihe Basquefrom Spain. They may also hope to lake advantage of lha accelerated pace toward European integration ta focusttention on their goals,T)
There ba* been an unprecedented (ncrcsac in Prorl-slonol Iriit Republican Amy (PIRA) activity this year both in mainland Britain and on the European
Continent:
Some PIRA operations this pasithe bombings of the Carlton Club and the London Slock Exchange and tbe assassination of parlianmi .iihift In thc group's primary targeting from militaryand facilities to more spectacular attacks agiinst political and economiche Indlscrlminant nature of some rcecai attacks may also indicate that PIRA Is now more willing to risk Innocent casualties In exchange for headlines.
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eipanded id targeting beyond lhe polite end security forces and. Tor lhe hill lime, tarried out aiiacka against Spanish liucieiia abroad:
Last September, lhe groupemalenru Judicial figure, and only the second woman the group haa ever targeted. It bat alao bombed rail ban aad threatened workersIn enrutriicMnighway linking Pait Vatco (Batqvc Country) to the Navarra region. Lata UK mi. an ETA kttcr bomb tent to the EXPOrganizing eommiiiti in Sc'dlaeerctaty.
Thc group In alto claimed cicdlieriei of bombingt Im Tall of Spanith diplomatic facilities ia the Netberlandi and for aiiacka againil Spanith intereiu there0
nd other terroritt groupa may target ihc major eventa in Spain duringincluding the World's Fair, the Olympic Camel in Barcelona, and celebration* ofth anniversary ee Columbus's discoveryublicity tuaattt ky
Hotbed
I Democratism ion and lhe recent tblfl in ii'rii'ii.'Ti policy have, however, opened lbc region to greater domestic and International tenor illpen bordcri may allow Weat European terror .it orgafuaalioes to suppori the cstabt librae at of local group*
With tbc lot* of the modus Vivendi eiubhthod between thc Gammoaiit* and various "revolutionaryany urroriai group* probably now ooniider Eastern Europe to be open territory for terror tit actlvit)
The CMeblisameflt of diplomatic relations between thc emcrgini democracies and Israel, their willing-nest to facilitate the emigration of Soviet Jews, and their condemn*tion ofggression agaimt Ku<-ait also mark East European intermit astargets far Middle Easiern terrorism.
el hole rivalries,f CommunM diets tort hip. have already rccmcrgcd and sharpened ia ltvcral Eaai European countries. Tbe Balkan region "ill be particularly tutccpiibtc to
daNcaiaen caused by taiicru Europe's gradual thift In* centtallj planned lyitems to marketand the rciullant rift between hava and hatay favor thc incabaUco of leftist terrorat
TbuDflVr on tbt RightI
Europe mayrowth in rightwingatm tension* ooatinucubside and as European inieimion
Both rightwiai and (cflwlng tcrtoiiii groupa may step up attack* against NATO targets as thePact continue* to dissolve. In the rearsfollowing reunification. German rightwing ex-trcmiits mayoury out attack* agnail NATO and Soviet intereiu in opposition lo "infringement" on German sovereignty.
Rigbiwing (iirtmuti in wealthier EC itatca may become] if European iniegra-tioo results ia indue aortal and temomac disruption fromj iafluiet of cheap foreign good* and labor.
Rightwing tcnunit iroupt in Eaticin Europe may alto resurfaer il tbc new drnocractc* prove unable to handle political orillcngci. or if tbc new regimeeiorivod a* Cragg>ng it* Icet on "de-
: apanBr
Chronology of
uotoorthy foreign and internationalieiY-
' 'Arerroelil tactic I.eii occurredor toonlint, our Ion litot. lit torn, row. ihe perpetrtior, and theirnot (Vdevelopment, thai hove already heen dercrlbtd
tlte-htre la Ihlt publication art moi included. AW fr^
Ewopc
> StJOtmber
Spain. Cot aaanh txplodtting Civil Caardlmoa omd
Tht Batque Fat air lane and Uttrty (ETA) Claimed rnponubUn, Jaffa
. dultrthip la Zeraal aadAipettta. ETA claimed rctponiibdiiy fffa
Turkey. Tueklth reporter omd author ,hot aad killed oatilde hi, home iaroup rolled "lilomle Flghttrl" claimed retponitbiUiy. fjft
Two gunmen rhoot and kill retired police lieutenant ouliide eajjee thop la Sirlnevler. Tat Dcv Sol flroup claimed reipoiui Silly fWa.
Norther* Ireland: Ttrroeitn Injure two brothert -. ambuih alminibut In Magherofelt. Tha Pto.Uional Ir iah Republleaa Artay (PIRAJ claimed rcapoanbd-
uvdm
Ireland: PIMA bomb. ctmceuJed Loagbmmll pedlee uatlon Injuring ttveral
5-rte* Letter bomb killi Kuwdith mama* from Iran Inba ettUotittfUcnoed fo- be* bui band, tbcof (be KurOuh lodepeftoene* Pany. No aremp "as ciaiaaod fMpoiuibthty. Iff
Spain: four leparata bombing, at tht Madrid trod exchange. Ml mil iry of Economynct. and Cotuliturlonal Court bulldiugt lajurt itvtral people.
Tbe Oac Ociobor AoU-Faacltl Resistance Group(GRAFO)claimed responsibility.
Spain: Bomb detonate/ at pateo-ehtmleal complex la Tarragona.
claimed tcaponub litj
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Spelt; Car bomb tsplodet at Clrll Guard barracks im Cartagena lajarlagenont. ETAclaimed reipeamp
Waited Kingdom: Off-duty pollee officer killed, euro badly beaten, aad three thers escape duriag PIRA ambmh aa the group while returningishiag
eptember
Lebanoni Unidentified ganmea assassinate former gaard ofAmglicaaarry Waite Im hit affiee in Beirut.
Lebanon: Raadilde bomb explode! la AI-Mi'Mariyah tillage, Sidon, hilling two fteopte.atg.
much
Lebanon: Bomb eiplode, am Ztfla-Mutaylih eoad in Am Nabatlyah, Ulllag aa Amal mljjtary ajfklal and hit two passengers. Amil iecuied Hizblllth of the
Lebanon; Bomb esptodii near the affice <tf the Deputy President of Ihe American niversity ofarning aa casualties. Earlier,xplojivc device in Zt pack of eigar.iiea wti found io lhc AUB president'* office, age
Septembereptember
Weil Bank; Telkatm resident tuspeered of collaboration it nabbed to death, fgh
bVert Bank: flftcea masked youths tub and wound impeded Informer In
Sadim Skadid, member of the Syrian Social Watlanalltl Party 1
amergemcy commaad. ia aaianlnated while driving berween the SIVII and Qabb Ltown,.
Gate Strip: Suspected collaborator from Bani-Suhaylas it killed. m%
Wen Bank; lirael Deftmse Forcet toldierabbed amd slightly wounded in Tulkerm. Theyear-old girl, wat captured, tjBj
21Bomb eiplodei nearettautenCin Burl al Boralinah, killing
two people aadamber of others. Tne Amat Movement tod Hizballah accused each other of tbc bombing, djp
is
AlU J Auguu
lapaa CAna-Aa-a* claim, etipoailbiltlp fat incendiary bombiagmpair tam Kamiai Imtormaiiomat Airport la Oimkm Petfttturt. ffff
ied Prim*tiajslmoilom
public meeung I, lahoee. Pointimpedrcnadei
India Itrrariai tbaot amd kill eight ptrion, im Curdaapur Dittrict, including
four memberi of,
tS September
Somalia: Srtln of bomblngi ar mialmlee. Mini,try of Information relating Otfltt, hiinlilry of Inrtrlor, aad lotal National StcurltyU md Injure al leoil eight,'
Africa:ftodet at Notlemal Pony afficei im Waitekloof,iudoJpn claimed
South Africa: Bomb txplodti at Baeaa-amatk lani iremd im Smweto,ccmd attack, thru pcitont -til loot and killedaxi ttand ia Undo East, and theit umaai at..
Xe-t'ir
Original document.
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