FRENCH PROBLEMS IN INDOCHINA

Created: 9/4/1951

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

APPPCVED FOP BElEASr DATE: 5

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CENTRAL lit ILLXQBIOI iOBliC! t7 BOAKD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES

STAFF ISynaUOXHOt National Satlaatoe Board FROM i Chief, SetlnaUa Staff SUBJECTi Franoh rVobleaw In Indochina

Tba KetteaUo Staff baa prepared for your information the foUowinc Intelligence appreciation.

U The French have Indicated that they will eeek greater OS rapport ln Indochina ln the forthooalng iranoo-UTWE Despite aarted localsuccesses that have occurred in Indochina alnce Qenerel Da Lettre'e arrival lnhe French etlll face very aerlcua eeoBOsdC and military problems there. In the French view, they will require greater U3 assistance if they are to solve these probleaso

20 The French will juetlxy their appeal for greater US aid on th* contention (agreed to at the recent tripartite tdlltary conference In Singapore) that th* defense of Tonkin la the key to the defense of th*position throughout Southeast Asia. ill point acaningfully to th* Chlneae Communlat bclld-cp in South China. In farther eqpport of their position, they will undoubtedly repeat their recent warning that French defense cccBitaent* in Ecrope will be eerloualy eoeprocised ucleeearked lightening" of tbelr burden* In Indochina.

3* French military and civilian expensea In Indochinal will emount tc0 allllon0 ttlsing prices, the coat of the expanding Vietnamese Army, and th* Intensified military operations required to oops mlxl. the lnoreaelncly better equipped and trained Viet Hinh forces, will increase French

outlays during tbe coaJruj year* la addition, the civilianof French-controlled arses is so disrupted as to present Franceon-tinning net econoado lose.

Ii. The French, by and large, have succeeded In holding the line against Viet Ulnh opt rations since early eriod of at least is months without large-scale Chlneee Communist participation and duringietneoeae Any could be organised and trained, the trench nllltary position might be icprovodointarge part of the burden for the defenee of Indochina could be shifted to the Vletaaaase* However, the French are deeply concerned, and Justifiably so, that CocDunlat Chine will not only continue to play the role of"tifl to the Viet Minh, but may at any tisa ctccadt Its own forces* In anticipation of euoh an event, the French will attempt to obtain advance assurances of US ground, naval end air support,

5* There heve been several reports, almost all of doubtfulthat the French, falling to get greater Restern support end in an effort to eelvage what they can in Indochina, will attempt to reachpcxfaa vlvendl with the Vlat Ulnh. Howe var, the French have naturally denied such an Intention and, all things eonaidared,lt appears aoet unlikely that the French would sakeeal*

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Original document.

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