CHINESE COMMUNIST INTERVENTION IN KOREA

Created: 11/24/1950

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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national intelligence estimate

chinese communist intervention in korea

The Intelligence or gan traitors ol the Departments o! Slate, lh* Army, the Navy, and the Air Force participated In the preparation ot thi* estimate ond concur in It. Thisased on information available on

CHINESE COMMUNIST INTERVENTION IN KOREA

THE PROBIEM

I. To re-estimate the scale and purpose of. Chinese Communist intervention In North Korea

conclusions

Chinese Communists will

Chinese-Nocth KoreanIn North Korea.

or increase theirin Manchuria.

to obtain UN withdrawal fromby intimidation and diplomatic means.

case of failure to obtaine IncreasingIntervention lu Korea. At aChinese will conduct, on anunacknowledged operation* designedUN forces in Korea, to subjectprolonged attrition, and toorth Korean stale Inevidence Is not conclusive asor not the Chinese Communistsyet committedull-sealo offensive Eventually they may undertakedesigned to bring about the withdrawal of UN forces from Korea. It Is estimated ihnt Ihey do not have Ihe military capability of driving the Ujf forces from the peninsula, but that they do have the capability of forcing Ihern to withdraw lo defensive positions for prolonged and InconclusivenVh, Ihe Communists might calculate, would lead Mrcventual UN withdrawal fiom Korea.

So long as Chinese Intervention continues, the USSR will continue and possibly Increase Its support to the Chinese by furnishingplanes, technical advisers,ecessary to man the more Intricate equipment.

The riskeneral war will develop already exists. The Soviet rulers maythis possibility but Ihey appear to have allowed for it and to feel prepared to cope with it.

ai ear aaafasa

DISCUSSION

The Immediate situation with regard to Chinese intervention lu Korea Is as Iollows:_

mtlitary activity of ChineseKorea so (ar is not in Itself sufficientthe existencelan foroperations.

preparations being carriedManchuria and elsewhere In China arescale sufficient to support majorprolonged duration, cither offensivelyor defensively In Manchuila.

e. Prevailing opinion in China, Including opinion in circles close to Parly leadrt&hlp.to reflect expectations of hostilities,expectations of extensive air attacks on Chinese, particularly Mnnchurlan cities.

cittvr the Chinese Government nor Chinese propaganda has thus far committed tho Chinese Governmentpecific line of action in Korea. Discussion of preparation for support of Korea has been only In terms of "volunteer" action.

e. Ch'ncsc propagandists for the past three weeks haveying on an Interfile campaign centering on tho charge that US-inllllary action In Korea is an attack aimed at China and have called foe all-out sacrifices to meet ond defeat this threat through "support of the Koreanub-lhcme of the campaign has been American impotencear with China.

here has been no suggestion in Chinese propaganda or official statements that the Chinese support of North Koreaimited objective such ss protecting power plants,uffer tone on the border, or forcing thi UN forces back to the asmIn fact, none of these objectives has been mentioned by the Chinese. All Chinesehave been in tcims of the necessity of bringingithdrawal of foreign forces fiotn Korea.

f.'ttw Chinese decision to send ato tho UN has been announced Inanner aa to give no conclusive indication of Chinese Intentions with regard to Korea. The delegation has been reported to be willing toiplomatic settlement on Korea so long as It Is arranged buUldo the SecurityNo terms have been suggested, and there are as yet no indications that the Chinese would Accept less than the withdrawal of for-clgn troops from Korea.

ft Tbe Soviet prvis has reported withChinese support of North Korea.official statements and Soviet propaganda have iden'.lited the struggle ol the Northwith the Communist cause generally. However, neither source Indicated that the USSR Is In any way committed to any specific line ot action beyond moral support o! North Korea and of China.hile there Is no reliable Intelligencethe role that the Soviet Union has played In decisions reached by Chinese leaders In regard to Korea, Chinese Intervention in Korea furthers Soviet objectives. Although the USSK has made no open commitment to support the Chinese, planes drawn from the Soviet air force have been observed innumbers In Manchuria and over Korea. Soviet propaganda has recently calledto Soviet obligation* under the 8ino-So-vlet treaty to support China In case ofby Japan or by any power directly orassociated with Japan. Sovietand propaganda have recently stressed Alleged US use of Japanese troops lu Korea and US preparations to use Japanase for aggression.

Original document.

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