a^/ MEMORANDUM
MANPOWER ASPECTS OF THEIVE YEAR PLAN
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
MftKPQWERf THEIVE YEAR plak
s
Theive Year Plan announces that the total number of workers and employees in the state economy will increase8 million). According to the Plan, the volume of industrialwill increaseercent and industrial productivity will increaseercent, indicating that employment in industry will3 percentillion).
These increases will not cause any strain on the manpower resources of the USSR, as is indicated by tbe rapid Increase in working agethe ccaparison of the projected trends with those of the immediate past, and the operationumber of factors sustaining productivity. In fact, if the expected increases in productivity are not attained,manpower over and above the planned increment is available.
The planned increases in civilian goods and services will outstrip the increase in population,ubstantial improvement in per capita consumption.
1. Availability of Manpower.
The hypothesis that Soviet manpower is ample to carry out the announced goals of theive Year Plan may be tested by four methods: (a) the population potential; (b) the past trends; (c) the accomplishments to date, during the first year of the Plan; and (d) the numerous factors sustaining productivity.
a. Population Potential.
The population of the USSR of workingill increase overillion0rillion more than the planned increase in workers and employees. Since few, if any, new workers will go Into collective farms, much of this increase in the working population is available for the state economy, if needed.
Furthermore, the ratio of males inear age group will increase substantially, since the annual increments to the labor force will be balanced between males and females, whereas the working ogee at the close of Worldere severely depleted by male war locoes. esult, it will be possible to roduco tho percentage of women who are working and to eliminate from tho labor force most youth underears of age, leaving then in school.
b. Fast Trends.
hows the annual rates of increase in industry ofproductivity, and employment7
Table 1
Industrial production, Productivity, and Employment in tbe USSR
Workers
l
The rate of increase announced for the latter years of the Fourth Five Year Plan was more rapid than that, planned for the Fifth Five Year Plan (see Table
oilown on p. 3.
CQHHiiaSgU,
Table 2
Average Annual Rates of Increase (Compounded) In Industrial Production, Productivity, and Employment in the
Percent
Production Productivity Employment
Thus the increases, while as substantial In volume, will belower rate than those of the postwar years. (See also
to'Date.
The first full year of the present Planl) has already elapsed, and announcements of the accomplishments of that year exceed the annual rates planned. Instead ofercent, industrialincreasedercent; Insteadercent, employment5 percent.
Sustainlnp; Productivity.
The factors beginning to operate in the postwar years05 which willubstantial gain in productivity are the following; the increasing proportion of males in the Industrial labor force cited above; the elimination of prisoners of war from the labor forcerobable slight decline In slave labor; the continual expansion of the program for training engineers, technicians, and skilled laborers (seend the probablein efficiency of organization of the labor force. Add to these manpower trends the continuing high rate of investment in capital goods and the projected increase in productivity appears feasible.
2. Civilian Production Increases.
There will be an estimated total population Increase ofillion,ercent. Comparable increases In civilian production wouldthe USSR to sustain the present level of living.
In most linos this rate of growth could be secured fron gains in productivity without additional workers. The announced Increases In civilian goods, however, are far moreotably the new constructionillicn square meters of civilian housing and the following Increases in production: cotton goods,ercent; woolenercent; footwear,ercent; neat,ercent; and canned goods, U0 percent.
0 the production of civil Inn goods had, ln cost lines,prewar total volume. The Increases planned5 willprewar per capita production, although It does not necessarily follow that per capita civilian consumption will reach prewar levels, since the increased supplies nay be stockpiled, diverted to military use, and exported.
It is also planned toubstantial part of the new workerr. In civilian servicoB, particularly health and education.
Explanatory Rote
Itethod of Projection of Soviet, trial Production, Productivity,Employment,7
projection of industrial production, productivity, andln tbe DSSR from7 (given In tabular form lnnd in graphic form in Figure l) has been derived in themanner.
The projection of industrial production has been made1 from the official DSSRndy0 productionercent (as per Five Year Plan announcement). The67 continuerend.
Projection of industrial employment for the base0 has been estimated from thc Soviet announcement that0 production
increasedercent and productivityercent, Indicating anincrease ofercent. Changes in employment70
have been estimated by subtracting0 base employment changesby production and productivity announcements. The projection
KXKC
05 has been made on the basis of the Fivepercent increase in production and of ain productivity. The67 continue the
A crude productivity index has been obtained by dividing tbeindex by the employment index.
Original document.
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