'JSP
MEMORANDUM
CROP CONDITIONS IN TIIE SOVIET BLOC
CIA/RR52
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
1
I.
II. European
Area (Eastoland, and Czecho-
slovakia)
Area (Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria,
and
III.
Tho following report on the condition of growing cropc In thc Soviet Bloc is the result of tbe analysis of Information on weather and other factors affecting yield that was available onune for the USSR anduly for the European Satellites and China. ualitative report it reflects,eneral way, the prospects for the food supply of the Soviet Bloc for the consumption2 through Quantitative estimates of production based on acreage as well as yield will be madeater report. Until then, these general statements regarding conditions affecting crop development ore indicative of the Bloc's field crop potential as of the dates specified.
chop cohdijiobs is the soviet bloc
Summary
Considering the Blochole, crop production2 la expected to be about egonl to that Production In the USSR and China naynd that of the Europeana expected to be lower. If car rent prospects arc realized, tho food position of tho DSSR and China will be relatively more favorable than in any year, since World War U. On the other hand, the current drought throughout thc European Satellites nay appreciably decrease their food supplies.
ussr.
Based on weather and crop inform!ion available as ofrop conditions in the DSSB.vere as favorable as, if not slightly better than, crop conditions as of the sane dote 1 crop was. the largest since the war, reachingercent ofverage annual production of grain.
During the sowing and growing season there was considerablein weather conditions among the various regions of the USSR. In . general, the late summer and fall1 wore characterized by below-normal precipitation. Snowfall during the first port of the winter, through January, appears to hove been light, but in succeeding months tbe amount of snow increased considerably ln many areas.
Growth of groins was retarded this spring by cool weather, and tho heading stagoweeks later than lost year. old spoil occurred ln mid-Hay, quite similar to that experienced in Tho cold spell does not appear, however, to have boon of sufficient intensity to damage grains, but it definitely had aeffect on crop development.
recipitation was below normal in July and August in much of the important potato and sugar beet area, and yields were thus adversely affected. Precipitation and temporature conditions at that time are critical in their effect on potato and sugar beet yields, and tuber and root formation occurs during these months. Asuly, growth conditions did not appear to be favorable In Belorussla and thc Baltic Region, which are Important potato-producing areas.
Grovth conditions In the Horth Ukraine ana Central European USSR, tepor-taat potato and sugar beet areas, were somewhat better.
European Satellites.
esult of an adverse growing season, the outlook, as ofuly, forood supply in Eastern Europe, lc not so good as the prospect was on the sase date Corn, sugar, neat, fats, and oils will probably be in shorter supply duringood consumption year than. ;
Agricultural production2 will beear in which grain production equaled -or nearly equaled tbe prewar level. The production of bread grains will be slightly less, and coarse grains (primarily com> may1 ehould the present drought persist. Yields of root, forage, and industrial crops also will suffer from this drought.
China.
Crowing conditions in China' end Manchuria through2 may be regarded as'having.been;average, or perhaps slightly above average. The, wheat harvest was*gooa> prospects are favorable for rice; and. If curroat growing and harvesting conditions-continue^ood production will probably excoed1 lovcl.
I. USSR.
In the Ukraine, precipitation in June was greater2 thanlthough amounts in May were slightly less than In view of the somewhat later development of tbe grainsheJune precipitation was beneficial. Crop prospects in tho Ukraine thus appear to be fully as favorable as last year. Information obtained from the Soviet agricultural press and other sources tend to confirm this favorable outlook.
In the North Caucasus, precipitation in May and June appears to have been sufficient to insure good yields. Crop prospects compare quite favorably with those Agricultural officials of the American Embassyrip to this area in early July reported that fall-needed grains in the Kuban appeared in excellent shape. In certain other areas of the North Caucasus, fall-seeded grains appear to be more
were at the corresponding time May and June precipitation was above normal Id much of this area and in places considerably above normal. There were reportsry fallut, during the winter, areas which normally have very little enovcover receivedamounts of snow.
Precipitation in May and June in the Central Black Soil Belt of Central European USSR appears to have been sufficient in most oblasto toood crop, perhaps better than The eastern oblasts of this belt in particular had substantial amounts of In the remaining oblasts of Central European USSR,in Kay was above normal in many oblasta. .Precipitation in Jane was less than in the oblasts of the Central Black Soli Belt but generally greater than in In view of the delayed season, an increase, in precipitation in July in this area would assume greater significance In determining tbe ultimate yield. The oblastsng the Baltic Region and Belorucsia had loss than normal precipita-tion, and crop conditions in these objasfcs are not very favorable.
In Belorussia and the Balticry fallollowed
by a. winter with less-than-normal snowfall and far-below-normal
precipitation in tbe critical months of May andreduced crop prospects. The combined precipitation in May and June in much of this area appears to have been less than 3 nches. OS Embassy agricultural officials traveling in Belorussia in mid-May commented on the delayed spring and the short uneven growth of fall-seeded rye. Pastures also were reported to be less lush than at the same time last year. All grain yields in this area probably will be less than last year, particularly winter grain yields.
Precipitation in the Orals in2 was greater than in1 but precipitation in May was lees throughout the whole area. In June, precipitation was greater than1 in tbe northern oblactc but less in the south. As ofune, conditions on the whole do not appear to be quite as favorable as they were at the corresponding time However, in view of the delayed season, the precipitation in July will assume greater significance this year.
In West Siberia and northern Kazakh SSR, precipitation in April was slightly higher2 than1 but less in May and June. Reports from this area are more sparse than In thc arcac described previously, but on the basis of reports received thus far the crop
prospects on the whole do not appear to be exceptionally favorable. Increased precipitation in July could do much to remedy this
H. European Satellites.
In order to simplify the presentation and to group countries having similar cropping systems, conditions,he European Satellites havu boon divided into two areasorthern and southern. Thc northern area Includes the following countries: East Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia; the southern, Hungary, Rumania,nd Albania.
1. Northern Area (East Ger&Lny, Poland, and Czechoslovakia).
A drought ln the fall1 (September and December) reduced the sown acreage and adversely offected germination of winter-sown grains (wheat and rye) throughout most of thc area. .Poland probably suffered more than East Germany oreep-plowing plans were not fulfilledhat is, official Czech statements claimed that the machine-tractor stationshad completed onlyercentheir work as1 -
Spring plowing and planting operations wore delayed by snow, rain, and cold weather in February, March, and the first part of April. Favorable planting weather prevailed fromprilay, when ancek period of cold and rain with frost swept over most of the area. The frost damaged early vegetables and fruit crops and retarded the grovth of cereals. '
Incomplete weather data Indicates normal and below-normal amounts of precipitation far thc months of Juno and July, respectively. Although low precipitation and high temperatures In July were favorable conditions for harvesting, the lack of soil moisture could prove serious for late-planted vegetables (some replantedesult of Mayorn, forage, and root crops. Toland, as ofuly, hadeek period with little or no rain.
Grain yields probably will be slightly less thanf the unfavorable planting and growing season for winter grains. Should the present dry spell continue Intoevere reduction in yields of corn, potatoes, sugar beets, and forage crops will occur.
2. Southern Area (Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria, nod Albania).
The fall1 was characterized by below-normal This Bade deep plowing difficult and conditions for tbeof fall-sown grains unfavorable. However, fall sowing plans vera claimed by the respective governments to have been fulfilled.
Unseasonable cold and rainy weather during March and the first half of April delayed spring field operations. Frost occurred in various sections of Hungary and Rumania in the middle of May, causing damage to vegetables, fruit trees, root crops, and corn. In manyof Hungary, and probably Rumania, corn had to be replanted. Tho low temperatures retarded the growth of small grain but bad no serious effects upon yields.
Tbe last week in June and the month of July were characterized by low precipitation and high temperatures, which vere particularly good far the development and harvesting of bread grains, barley, and oats. With reserves of soil moisture low, however. If this dry spell continues, yields of root crops, com, forage, and sunflowers may be materially reduced. Corn damaga will be particularly serious in Rumania and Albania, since in these countries the farm population is dependent upon corn for human food as well as for animal feed.
The yields of all crops probably will be less thanhen above-average poctvar yields were obtained because of very favorable growing conditions, particularly for both bread end coarse grains.
HI. China.
Weather in China and Manchuria through July may bo regarded as havin been average, indicating that production may be equal to and probably greater than that The wheat harvest was good, and prospects or favorable for rice.
inter with little ruin and snowfall, which Is normal, favorable wcathor prevailed throughout the country in May, producing what might beumper wheat crop in Horth Kiangsu, Hopei, Honan, and Anhwei provinces which produce about UO percent of China's wheat. Weather ia SAcbvan, an important wheat-producing province in the Southwest, has been average. Floods in Horth Szechwan and drought In South Szechwan are common, and than is no evidence that crops have been materially reduced.
The Cotnnmlatff' attributed the good wheat harvest to higher yields and an Increase In acreage. Production and acreage 'percentages announced by the Chinese Coaanmists do not, however, substantiate the data of botter-than-average yields. It is thought that sane successes in the water conservancy programs (for example, the Hual Bo proiect) haveto the successful harvest, although the extent cannot .be
Previous fears of drought ln East ChinaIn Kiangsu andwore dispelledesult of constant rainfall daringfew days of July, which vas conducive to the early growthsown
The early crop in Hunan, the rice bowl of China, was at itsstage in mid-June,ays earlier than in previous years. wasigorous condition, and the yield is expected to beccorparatively largo floods occurred in parts of Hunan betweenpart of April and the latter part of May. Floods ere cobbiobat this time of year, however, and damage to crops isbe unusual. Seas anal rainfall in early July led to anticipationabundant early poddy
A serious dry spell developed in Bonan following the wheat harvest, but sowing of summer crops con be delayed In most of 'the wheat region untilruly. As ofuly,-it was announced that summer sowing bad been successfully completed in Bonan, North-Kiangsa,-Bbrt^ Snantung, Plngyuan, Bopsi/ Shansl, and ShensiTLmnar crops includs corn, millet, kaoliang, sweet potatoes, endaseanS, which occupy over k5 percent of the total farmland in most of the above-named
Original document.
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