INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
CROP CONDITIONS IN. THE SOVIET BLOC,3
CIA/RR33
THISL. CONTAINS information affectNATIONAL BEFENSR OF'TiiE^tJITEU STATES-WTTHIN THEHE ESPIONAGESC,IE jrjttNSBTSSrON OR ^REVELATION OF WHICH IN AHt-MATTHEK TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office o( Research and Reports
I.
II. European
Area (East Germany, Poland,
and
Area (Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria,
and 5
III. Communist 6
Appendix
7
ft
l.-ir
The following memorandum on the condition of growing crops in thc Soviet Bloc Is the result of tbe analysis of information on weather and other factors affecting yield as of ualitative memorandum it reflects,eneral way, the prospects for the food eupply of the Bloc for the consumption3 through. Quantitative estimates of production based on acreage as well ae yield will bo madeater report. Until then, these general statements regarding conditions affecting cropare Indicative of the field crop potential of the Bloc as of
cta/rr
SSCJJRIT: INFORMATION
CROP CONDITIONS IK THE SOVIETummary
Crop production*n"-the Soviethole Is expected to be slightly less than Production* in the USSR and Communist China probably will be slightly below1 productionostwar high was attained in both countries. In the European Satellite, :however^produbtion is certain to'be higher this year than in the relatively poor year If. current crop prospects are realized, the food situation (not Including animal products) in the European Satellites should be, appreciably relieved" ttfi compered vith:the'previous year, although' therestill' will be local-shortages. It is estimated that in the'USSR and Communist China the food situation will be slightly less favorable thanut the situation should not be criticalation-wide Scale in either country barring large-scale 'grain exports to obtain desired consumer goods and industrial
I. ussr.
Based on weather and crop information as ofrop prospects in thc USSRhole3 production level slightly lower than the postwar-high level attained
y ccr.ir.r. i- , ,
sugar beets.
ncluding the ussr, Conmunist China, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Gernany, Poland, ilur.gary, and Rumania.
Normal to above-normal precipitation occurred In much of the USSR during the fall2 and the winterekingan accumulation of relatively abundant reserves of soil moisture, as contrastedelfi*.iveiy dry fall1 - The
Kay and June precipitationowever, appears to have been less than in theonthsnd. in some areas, particu-
larly in June, the amounts;
Considering the effect of the more favorable reserves of soil moisture3 and weighing this .effect against the driermonths of Kay and Juneaa compared with theperiodt is believed 'that the average grain yield inhan thc relatively high
on
- flufiar.,beets will dependargeJuly, and August, as will the .extent of .
of,or* the jt
) USSRegional basis, the Ukraine (Economic irmal or. above-normal precipitotion,.duringndhus accumulating .reCraM*peeded An'thc-fallTor harvest in. ,curvivcd;pbc wintereat herowever> Indicate that.precipitation In,moat ofn May and June2 and ,bclow normal
0f l
the yields2 but yields than? because of the drier Hay and June.
rip through the Moldavian SSR have reported that the corn crop was near failure becauseack of July rains. Other sources confirm low rainfall In this urea in the name month.
In Central European USSR (Economic Regionhc accumulated reserves,of'soil moisture probably were somewhat greater3 thanut the May and June precipitation appears to Iiavc been considerably Jess than Incomplete weather data for3 indicate more nearly normal precipitation, which shouldeneficial effect on crop yields, nevertheless, in view of the smaller amounts of precipitation In the critical months of Kay
* Thc term region in this memoranduin refers to the economic regions defined and numbered In CIASSR: Economic Regions.
and June, it in believed that yields of grain will be slightly less than Representatives of the American Embassy in Moscow have reported some winter kill of winter grain In certain areas of the southern part of the region (Central Black Soil
In the Volga (Economic Regionields of spring grain3 probably will be slightly less than the relatively high yieldsrimarily because of less rainfall in May and Juneields of winter grain may approximate those2esult of favorable reserves, of. soil moisture.
In the Lover Don-North Caucasus (Economic Regionields of grainere-exceptionally good, and on' the basis of available current Information it is believed that yieldslthough fair, will almost;certainly not attain the2 level. Reserves of soil moisture from the fall2 and winter3 appear to have been fairlyut precipitation In May and June apparently was not sufficient to give yields at the2 level. Agricultural officials of the American Embassy In Moscow traveled through tbe Kuban in mid-July and reported that the grain this year appeared tolighter yields than Corn prospects, however, wereas good-as'or better than those
The Baltic ank BeloruseU'(kcoboi^^ nd lib,are believed to have ban generally below-average yieldsend prospects for3 crop do not appear to be muchprobably-.will approximate .those of last year. . V
In the Trans Caucasus (Economicields of grain may be slightly less than Embassy travelers in July reported grain harvests were poor in the areas observed ln Azerbaydzhan SSR, although, earlier in the season, winter grain crops in the Georgian SSR wereto be In fair condition.
In the Urals and'West Siberia (Economic Regions VIII and IX, respectively) and ln the adjoining grain areas of Kazakh SSR (Economic Regionrop conditions as of3 appeared somewhat more favorable thanhen grain yields were below normal. Agricultural officials from the American Embassy in Moscow, on tho basis of travel to Kurgan in West Siberia In late June, have reported that yield prospects for3 harvest were generally good. weather data for3 Indicate that precipitation was sufficient to makeetter harvest than that
II. European Satellite*.
On the weathercrop informationtexpected that' the crop production of. the3 will certaljiiy^borxeed; the'but .viil; not attainthe prewar1arring very unfavorable weather during the-latter part of July'of spring-seeded grain, especiallyre expected tofsbov the most Improvement' over the yields-achievedields-of root crops*are-expected
to,be bettera,weeding difficulties may reduce yleldilbelow' expectations."
/The fallr1*ty"ih'WP-nnrmi;preelpltAfclnn}
delaysame time accumulating
reserves':of'* Conditions 'In the spring and early"were'better, on^the .'whole,hus accounting for the';.
ps were' retardedeffects'of
u*.V(r.r^
.tt^ie's having ciroilar cropping?systems,;'ytbe European Satellites,
Southern
; Northern Area^ifs^^
Available weather Information and reports from the American Embassy In Moscow indicate that cold and lack of rain characterised the spring in touch of Poland, although more abundant rainfall appears to have occurred In June. Favorable conditions for spring work were reported in East Germany and Czechoslovakia. Rainfall oppears to have been generally adequate to abundant In the late spring and summer months, and in July heavy rains were reported to lave causeddifficulties for grain ond cultivation difficulties for root and vegetable crops.
It la expected that yields of grain vlll be slightly better thana but generally less than the prewar average. As for potatoes, sugar beets, and other vegetables, there have been reports of heavier Insect Infestations than Yields of these crops will depend on the true extent of this infestation and on weather conditions In July, August, and September, available weather data for these months.not as yet being complete.
Southern Area (Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria, and Albania).
In the southern area of the European Satellites,In the fall2 was considerably greater than in Albania reported over-fulfillment of the faU sowingRumania and Bulgaria Indicated at least
Hungary, however, with considerably above-normal precipitation, failed substantially In fulfilling its fall sowing plan. To cosroen-sote for this deficiency In winter grain crops, Hungaryoal for increased spring wheat acreage.
Spring weather favorable for plowing and sowingmost of the_southern area of the European Satellites, butfield work were occasionally reported, In some cases as aseedrost occurred In mid-May In Hungary,damage to.vlneennd fruit trees but apparently notand vegetables."
In*'
Early summer rainfall appears to have been generally ode-ouate, and ln Hungary there wore Indications of excessive rainfall In some areas ln June and July, causing lodging of grain andharvesting difficulties. Wet weatherertain amount of peasant apathy also have caused difficulties in the cultivation of root and vegetable crops ln parts of Hungary. ag in harvesting and threshing ln some of thc other major grain areas in the southern
area of tbe European Satellites has been reported, wbich, if serious.
would increase harvesting losses.
The yields of all crops in the southern area of the European Satellites will almost certainly be better than2 but it Is not anticipated that they will attain thc prewar1 levels.
elieved
tohanlio uy'le elightly
It le still tcKj.early^to sake"crops, to be hexyoBted; later-thlc-:'
provinces of Anhveiy. Kiangsu, Jlj..anK Honan were reported to have been hit
. .The, Shantung,
by! heavy frostV(betweeo'lQ^andold speUs,nd.haii"6tor*a'. Much of the area was reported sufferingfron' drbughV; Sdiiclr lasted, untilune. The central .portion.hls'area*een affected mootondlllonSj VlnJ Ssechwarieighboring important wheat-growing
BOORWhatn .thef June, 'heavy "rainst.fuid.caus^ soee flooding.
floods have been" greater thenn;-thisice-graving area. Flooding appears' to have beenwnngtung province .in the double-cropping'Jjlce area, takinghe.first*rice crop of the'year"wll<ihelarge ;obli is^tcc'early to Indicate what tneice*"In-the clhgfefcropping areas* and the yields of the second crop of the year in the. double-cropping area will be, since these dependonsiderable extent on weather conditions ln the latter part of July, August, and September.
.SrB^-Ji-JJ-T-
SOVBCKS
Climatic Suanarlesrom Air
Weather Service, Andrews Field.
grans and despatches froa American Embassies in Soviet
Bloc countries. 3- FBIS, daily and weekly publications.
k,'translations of Soviet Bloc agricultural newspapers.
Original document.
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