CONTENT:.
Page
Postwar Trends in Production
Satellites
e. Coraflunlst
3- Planned
u.
1*. Current
Appendix
Sources and Evaluation of
SECURITY INFORMATIOK PRODUCTION AMD UTILIZATTOH OF POTATOES IN THE SOVIET
Iiucrr.iU-y
The Soviet Bloc, which is the largest potuto-producing area in the world, accounts for aboutercent of the total world supply. Potato production in the Bloc has fluctuatedigh ofillion metric tons0 but droppingillionillion tons, respectively,12 because of adverse weather conditions in the USSR1 and in the Satellites Prewar production in those areas now constituting thc Blocillion metric tons.
Potato acreage in the Soviet Bloc? has remained at1 level of aboutillionhichercent above thc prewar Potato yields for the Bloc, however, have foiled to reach the prewar level ot any time during thc postwar period.
Thc USSR accounted for aboutercent of the total potatoin the Soviet Bloc2 and produced9 million metric tons. Whichpercent increase over1 levelercent increase above the prewar level.
The European Satellites accounted forercent of the total potato productionut because of severe drought and poor harvesting conditions, they produced only JiO million metric tons, whichecrease ofercent below1 total andercent below the prewar level.
* This memorandum contains Information availublc asThe data do not represent weighted quantities but are estimates and approximations. The range of fluctuation of estimates Is at least plus or minusercent or more.
** One hectare All acreage figures are in terms of harvested acreage.
Communist China accounted forercent of the total potatoin the Soviet Bloc2 and produced6 million
metrichichlight increase (lessercent) above1 totalpercent Increase above thc prewar level.
Host or the countries producing potatoes ln tlx; Soviet Bloc have plans Tor increasing production. arge extent, these production plans appear unrealistic. The itovlet Fifth Five Year, for example, calls- to ercent lncreaee. Becauselans for acreage incrcasen have been indicated, thc assumption is that any Increase in production will result primarily from increased yleldo. If acreage Is not increased, the planned output appears unattainableit wouldield lncreaee which even under the best of conditions could not be attained in soeriod of time.
During the prevar period the Soviet Bloc normally produced enough potatoes to meet all domestic needs andurplus left over for During moat of the postwar years, however, the potato supply has been inadequate in many of thc Bloc countriesesult or poor harvento und the resistance of the peasants in some or the European Satellites in ruirilllng their delivery quotas to thc state.
boutercent of theillion metric tons of potatoes available to the Soviet Bloc was accounted for as seed and2 percent was fed toercent was utilised by induotry, andpercent was made available for human consumption.
Potatoes represent an Important part of the daily diet In tho Soviet Bloc, ranking second ln importance after grainajor food ln the USSR and thc European Satellites. In some of tho European Satellites, besldeo being an Important food item, potatoes ore utilised extensively ln the feeding of hogs. The Importance of potatoeseed In the large hog-producing countries such as Poland and Kant Germany inby the fact that the decrease In the potato supply avalluble for Teed in those countries during theas reflectedubstantial decrease in hog numbers.
In spite of the critical supply situation during thc past few years, exports of potatoes from the Soviet Bloc have avorngedetric tons to all destinations annually.
Sweet potatoes account for about O5 percent of the total potato production in Communist China.
** On the basis of approximatelyercentandercent waste.
Because of the perishable nature of potatoes and the stringentnecessary for even short-term storage, it is highly Improbable that there are any reserves maintained in the Soviet Bloc forpurposes.
1. Postwar Trends In Production.
Potato production In the Soviet Bloc has fluctuated erratically since the war, when the averageillion metric tons. Productionighillion metric tons0 and then droppedercent1illion metric tons. This loss was due primarily to the poor potato crop in the USSR during1 season. roduction" in those areas now constituting the Soviet Blocillion metric tons.
Although potato production has fluctuated considerably since the end of World War II, yields for tho Soviet Blochole havebelow tho prewar level. Increased acreages have accounted for roost of the gain In production. Yields for the Bloc13 centners per hectare as compared with the prewar averageentners per
Potato production remained high during World War II because of the extensive cultivation of the crop in both rural and urban areas. In the USSR, for example, the city and village population planted every available plot of land in and around homes and factories and along roads, principally to potatoes, cabbage, or other vegetables.
Potato yields for the Soviet Bloc began to decrease soon after the end of the war because of fertilizer shortages throughout tho BioO and an opposition to the land reform program in some of the European Satellites.
See Table.elow. ** Potato yields indicated in this section of tbe memorandum are obtained by dividing potato production by the acreage figure.
2. ? Production.
Potato production In the Soviet Bloc2 Is estimated ot aboutillion metric tens. This figure is an Increase ofillion metric tons (lessercent) above1 figure ofillion metric tonsecreaseU million metricercent) below the prewar average of9 million metric tons. (See Table
Potato production In the Soviet Blocistributedopulationillion,ross per capita supply"ilograms, which is almost equal toilograms per capita Indicated by the distribution of1 productionillion people. 2 gross per capita mipply is, however,ercentthe average gross per capita supplyilograms availableillion people during tbe prewar years.
Potato acreage In tbe Soviet Bloc2 If estimated at aboutillion hectares. This acreage Is approximately equal to1 total andercent above tho prewar average9 million" hectares.
Potato yields in the Soviet Bloc are estimated at5 centners per hectare as compared with1 yield4 centners per hectare and tho prewar average6 centners per hectare.
a. USSR.
Potato production in the USSR2 lo estimated at9 million metricpercent increase above1 figure7 million metric tonsercent increase above the prewar average9 million metric tons. 1 potato crop was extremely poor because of adverse weather conditions. Thc Increaseowever, ia not indicative or the ability of thc USSR to Increase potato yields.
ollows on p. 5-
** The gross per capita supply indicates the supply available perall purposes. Including industrial use, feed, seed, waste,and human consumption as contrasted with the netsupply, which Indicates tlio supply available per personthe exports, industrial uses, feed, seed, waste, and
Potato acreage In the USSR2 is estimated athectares. This-acreage is equal to1 totalercent above the prevar averageillion hectares. It Is estimated that the USSR accounted Tor aboutercent of tbe total potato production in the Soviet Bloc2 onercent of the total potato aereofie in the Bloc.
As seen inotatoes are grown throughout the USSR In varying acreage a, with the European areas of the USSR accounting for the largest share of the acreage and production. 2 the regions comprising the European USSR were responsible for aboutercent of the total Soviet production andercent of thc total Soviet acreage. Of these totals, the Central European Economic Regionccounted forercent of the production andercent of the area; the Ukraine'i percent of the production andercent of the area; end Belorussia5 percent of the production andercent of the urea. The largest potato-producing area in the Asiatic USSR2 was located ln Hontern Siberiahich accounted for onlypercent of both the production and the urea within thc USSR.
Potato production in the European USSR2ercent decrease below prevar production, although acreageercent over that period. In the Asiatic USSR, however, potatoand acreage Increased U6ercent, respectively, over the prewar average. This Increase indicates the shift In acreage and production from the western to the eastern areas of the USSR following the occupation during thc war of many important potato-producing arena In Western USSR.
Potato yields in the USSR Increased3 centnersn Increase ofercent above1 yield ofentners per hectareercent below the prewar averageU centners per hectare.
b. European Satellites.
Potatoes ore grown extensively throughout the European Satellites. Poland, East Germany, aad Czechoslovakia account for tlie largest chare of the acreage and production. (See* Potato
ollows on" The economic regions referred la this memorandum are those derined and numbered on CIASSR: Economic ollows on p. 8.
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Table 3
Percentage Distribution of Acreage and Production of Potatoes in tbe European Satellites Prevar Years Compared12
Percent
Area
rea^e
cc-ccticn
Geraany
Postvarverage'.
than one-tenthercent-
- fi .
production ln the European Satellites2 Is estimated st about UO million metricecrease ofercent belov1 figure ofillion metric tons andercent belov tbe prevar average3 million metric tons. (See This large decrease ln production resulted from bad veather throughout Eastern Europe during2 season. The combinationong summer drought and heavy rains, snow, and subnormal temperatures during the fall harveating season resulted ln one of the poorest crops of the postwar period.
Potato acreages In the European Satellites2 were estimated to beillion hectares, whichercent below1 totalillion hectaresercent belov the prewar average ofillion hectares. (Sec The slight decrease In2 acreage belov1 level vas due primarily to the abandonment of the sown acreage destroyed by spring frosts.
The European Satellites accounted for approximatelyercent of the total potato production ln the Soviet Bloc2 onercent of the total acreage.
Potato yields in the European Satellites2 dropped,3 centners per hectare,ercent below1 yield ofentners per hectare andercent below the prevar averageentners per hectare. Potato yields in the European Satelliteshole during the postwar period have foiled to reach the prewar level. Bulgariaf andndA8ere thc only countries either to equal or to exceed their prevar yield during the postwar period. hows that potato yields in Poland end East Germany arc generally higher than In the other countries of thc Soviet Bloc. This Is due primarily to the more favorable weather and soil conditions for the cultivation of potatoes which prevail in these two countries, as well as the experience in growing the crops and the development of better varieties suited to their climatic and soil
c.. Communist China.
PotatoCommunist China2 is estimated at
6 millionwhichlight increase (less than
1 percent) above5 million metric tons and a
ercent increaseprewar average7 million metric
tons.
Potato acreage in CoanunUt China2 ia eatlnated to beillion hectares. Thio acreage is equal to1 total andpercent Increase above thc prevar averageillion It is estimated that Communist China accounted forercent of the total potato production in the Soviet Bloc2f the total potato acreage in the Bloc-
Sweet potatoes are grown extensively in Ccamunist China and account for aboutercent of thc total potato crop. The principal growing area includes the provinces of Bopeh, Hoc an, Shantung, Szechwan, Kiangsl, Hunan, Swantung, and Puilen. Because Irish potatoesather nev food crop in Communist China, they are not widely cultivated, but the area of cultivation la increasing annually. Thc principal regions Tor growing Irish potatoes are located on the plateaus of the northeast, north, northwest, and southwest, where Irisn potatoes arc an Important food of the farmers. In the south, Irish potatoes are grown in the mountain valleys at higher altitudes, where the temperature is lover.
Potato yields In Communist China, estimated on thc basis of both sweet and Irish potatoes,9 centners per hectare This figurelight Increase (lessercent) over1 yield6 centners per hectare endercent increase above thc prewar average3 centners" per
'} Planivd Troduction.
All Soviet Bloc countries, with thc exception of Hungary, Bulgaria and Coomiunlst China, have published plans for increasing potato pro- uction. These plans, in most cases,highly unrealistic, since the increases are apparently to be obtained largely through an increase in yields. PortUlmer shortageb, the lackufficient area ofsoils, and in someeneral resentment toward tbe land reform program will tend to hold yields dovn.
a* UggB'
As shown in+ the Fifth Five Yearf the USSR Intends to increase potato production by aeons of increasing
Fnelude* both sweet and Irish potato acreage. ollows on
Table k
Planned Production of Potatoes In the Soviet Bloc Including Percentage Comparisons with Prewarnd Estimated Production5
Area
Planned Production5 (Thousand Metric Tone)
of Prewar
1
2
Productionens;
Germany
a/
European Satellites
.A.
China
Soviet Bloc
3 Plan.
thc yields. This increase is to be achieved primarily through thc use or better agrotechnical methods. The Planoincrease in gross potato production over this span of years. Ouch on increase would resultotato production5illion metric tons,percent Increase above2 figure9 million metric tons. Because there are no plans for the acreage, this Increase would require, on the baslB of)ieldentners per hectare. This yield would amount to an Increase4 centners per hectare above2 yield3 centners per hectare. It la highly unlikely thatarge increase in yield con be realized overhort period of time even under thc best, of conditions. It appears likely that the potato acreage in the USSR will not tend to expand materially above15 million hectares). It is probable, therefore, thatnless there is an exceptionally favorable combination of veather factors, potato production will not exceedmillion metric tons.
b. European Satellites.
The European Satellites, with the exception of Hungary and Bulgaria, also have plans for Increasing potato production, primarily through an increase in yields. Becauoe of tbe lack of suitable arable lund and fertilizer and becauseeneral resentment on the part of thc peasants toward land reform program In some of the Satellite countries, it is unlikely that these plans can be accomplishedotal production of more3 million metric tons can not
C. CoecBinlst China.
No plans have been published concerning planned potatoin Communist China. Because of acreage limitations end the inability of the Chinese to increase yields in the past, it Is doubtful that potato production In Communist China will increase materially within the next few years above2 level6 million metric tons.
k. Current Utilization.
During the prewar period the Sovietormally produced enough potatoes to be self-sufficient and, in addition, tourplus
for export. Generally, all segments of the economy, Includingagricultural, und Industrial consumers, received sufficient quantities In their allocations. During most of the postwar period, particularly1ecause of the poor potato harvest in various parts of the Bloc, the potato supply in those countries was inadequate to meet oil the needs of the economy, and serious distribution problems resulted.
Out of the total potato supplyillion metric tons available to the Soviet Bioc countries*6 million metricercent) were accounted for as seed and waste,**
illion metricercent) were fed to livestock,illion metric tonsercent) were utilized by industry,et supply available for food of4 million metric tons
ercent). (Sec*
The shore of the potato supply available for feed in the European Satellites has been higher than that available for human consumption, mainly because of the Importance of potatoes as the principal feed for hogs in some of these countries. Because of the poor potato harvestho potato supply available for feed in the European Satellites wasercent below the available supply The decrease in2 supply under1 level wob reflectedecrease in hog numbers by3 ofillion head below the2 level.
Thc potato supply available for industrial consumptionery small part of the total available supply. The principal industrial uses of potatoes In the Soviet Bloc are In the manufacture of starch and alcohol. At present, potatoes are ranked second in importance after grainsajor source of alcohol in the Bloc.
Potatoes, second in Importance only to grainood commodity in the USSR and European Satellites, normally account for aboutoercent of the dally per capita caloric intake, whereas in CODBunist China they account forercent. (See Table
* Baaed on original productionillion metric tonsons which were exported to non-Bloc countries.
** On thc basis of approximatelyercent seed andercent waste.
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Per Capita ConBuaption of Potatoes ia the Soviet Bloc Prevar
Area
Per Year
Per Bay
Dally Calorie Intake h/
Per Year
Per Day <y
Daily Calorie Intake
Per Year
Dall Calories Calorie Perntake
c/
d/
Germany
5/
f/
0
ay
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37
d/
European
m
China
e/
Soviet
Footnotes forollov on
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If
Ill
I It
It
lis SS8
Because of thc Importance of potatoes an an integral part of thc daily diet ln the USSR and European Satellites, any decrease In their availabilityource of widespread dissatisfaction among the general population.
The Soviet Bloc Is estimated to have consumedU million metric tons of potatoes as food duringonsumptionan increaseercent aboveigureetric tonsercent below the prewar average1 million metric tons. In terms of net per capita supply, this amounts toilograms per years compared3ilograms per year, respectively,nd in the average prewar year.
The potato supply available for food in the USSR duringonsumption year is estimated to be8 million metric tonsilograms per capita per year). This amount Is greater thanvailable net supply9 million metric tonskilograms per capita per year) and comparable to the prewar average net supplyI Billion metric tons (but less than the prewar averageilograms per capita per year).
The potato supply available for food in thc European Satellites duringonsumption year Is estimated to be aboutillion metric9 kilograms per capita per year). This amount is less thanvailable net supply of approximatelyillion metric7 kilograms per capita per year) and also much less than the prewar overage net supply8 mi Hi on metric3 kilograms per capita per year).
The decrease lnotato supply available for food resulted from the2 potato harvest and the reluctance of the farmers to fulfill the delivery quotas to the state. Because of this situation, potatoes have been practically unattainable in the market places. Conditions have become so critical in Poland, East Cennony, and Czechoslovakia that the governments of those countries have resorted to the capitalistic system of offering extra incentive cash bonuses to the people for getting out the harvest and Increasing deliveries to the state.
The potato supply available for food in Communist China duringonsumption year is estimated6 million metric tons
onsumption year extendsuly toune.
ilograms per capita per year). This amount is about the name aset available supply5 million metricer capita per year) and considerably greater than tbeaverage net supply2 millionilograms per capita per year).
Thc statistics giving the per capita potato supply for food arc averaga figures, end they arc thereforerue reflection of the consumption patterns vithln the various Soviet Bloc countries. Forin thc Soviet Bloc the producers of potatoesarger per capita shore of the supply than do the nonproducers, since part of the payment to the producer Is usually in kind. In addition, vhen potatoes ore in short supply and placed on thc ration list, certain categories of the population are apportioned their ration according to party and vorklng status. This generallyery small ration for theof the population vho ore neither party members nor workers. Such potatoes vhen they ore available are nt higher prices.
alio Soviet Bloc countries during the prevar period exported en average ofillion metric tons ofear to all In theears, however, they have been unable to supply enough potatoes to meet their ovn domestic requirements. esult, only negligible quantities, averagingetricear, have been exported, principally from Poland and Kost Germany to both Bloc and non-Bloc destinations* In many instances, eveti these small quantities havetrain on the domestic supply.
/
IVcuuce of the perinhnble nature of potatoes and the stringent storage conditions necessary to preserve them forhort period of time, it is highly unlikely that any potatoes are placed ln reserve in thc Soviet Bloc for stockpiling purposes.
SOURCES AND KVAliiATIOSC&5
Evaluation uf Sources.
Except for th< sources noted bclov, all data reining tc potato acreage and production are based on cuticiutes made ov Clitlio Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations, US Department of Agriculture. These estimates, in turn, are based upon Soviet statistics collated and used in previously published CIA and OFAR studies.
2. Sources.
Evaluations, folloving the classification entry and designatedave the folloving significance:
Source of
A
Completely reliable
Usually reliable
c
Fairly reliable
Not usually reliable
Not reliable
Cannot be judged
not otherwise designated are those appearing on the cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this Ho "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees vith the evaluation of the cited document.
1. The Soviet Fifth Five Year Plan is basedeport published by ORR which vas abstracted from the NewTimes U. .
2* Plans for Albania are based on FBIS, R..
Original document.
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