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ZRAQ-XUWXXTt SITUATION REPORT4
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Saddam spoke on Iraqi television today for the first time since the ceasefire. He said he had waited until feelings had quieted down so his words would be better understood. He admitted to widespread domestic disturbances, calling the rebels "stooges and agents of foreign enemies." He said the sane people provoking sedition now had done so in the past, implying that Iran was behind the revolt in the south. ^|
Saddam said the domestic unrest was occurring while Iraq was still "bleeding from the consequences of the vicious aggression committed byeferring to the US-led coalition. He warned that if the insurrectionists succeeded, Iraq would become another Lebanon. But he said the rebellion was being mBBBm crushed and the Iraqi people rejected any division of Iraq.
Saddam reaffirmed some of the democratic reforms that were approved last summer but never implemented and said he wasew ministry to take on the tasjeof reconstruction and restoration of services to the citizens.
Comment: The rhetoric, intended for both domestic and foreign audiences, was vintage Saddam, and he appeared composed throughout the prerecorded speech, that the address will be viewed as
Iraq^ battered army struggles to cope with surging disorder.
The democratic reforms mentioned probablyew National Assembly which will be popularly elected and have an expanded religious and ethnic membership. Also, Saddam probably will offer popular presidential elections. However, Saddam gave no timetable for these changes in today's speech, and the reforms probably are cosmetic. Intended to fan his diminishing domestic support.
Senior Duty Officer, CIA Operations Center,
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Resistance Banging On in tba South
Reports *at continued fighting in southern Iraq indicate the opposition there survives despite strenuous efforts by the regiae
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Baghdad Regrouping survivors from Kuwaiti Theater
Special intelligence indicates Iraq's military leadership is trying to reconstitute the forces that escaped Operation Desert Storm. enior Amy official proposed combining the remnants of fivet, andinto one or two divisions and redeploying them to Qal'at Salih, where they will be closer to fuel end ammunition stocks. enior Iraqi military official revealed that two Republican Guard infantry brigadesuard mechanised brigade have been attached to the Hamnurabi Armored Division, probably in addition to the organic elements of the division that survived the war.
comnonti Baghdad is feeling hard pressed to send reinforcements to Kurdistan, but has been reluctant to move forces there from Mesopotamia so far because it fears the insurgents would re-emerge quickly after the troops departed. The regime almost certainly hopes to resolve this problem by reconstituting some fraction of the forces previously deployed to the Kuwaiti Theater. By" scraping together the remnants of several divisions into conglomerate forces, the Iraqis probably couldumber of brigade- or division-strength units. Baghdad probably would use these forces primarily to garrison the centers of unrest in the south, allowing the intact divisions that did not take part in thehave been bearing the brunt of the fighting against the insurrection in themove north and deal with the Kurds.
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Original document.
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