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Lebanon's Legislativereliminary Assessment
Summary
recent ippomtment ofainly pro^yriin deputies io tbe National Assembly brings the last political power center in Lebanon firmly under Syrian control. Tne majority of the new legislators are relatives of deceased deputies, senior Lebanese Government officials, or are closely affiliated with militias. The large number of Syrian supporters now in tbe National Assembly will allow Damascus to control important legislative matters, including the timing of nationwide elections and the ic lectionresidenthe absence of an appointee from Hizballah among thc new deputies suggests that despite the recent electionew Hizballah leadership, opposition to official participation in the government remains strong. ^
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Lebanon's Legislativereliminary Assessment
une, (he Ubarwse Cabinet appointedew deputies to theThe legislative appornuraenti fulfill one of lhe mostof lhe Ta'if aceord-reconsrituuTii the Nalional Assembly sohave equal rqwr^tation wiihrtdwTunant Christians.this, nine new scats have been created for Muslimi. The accordfor fillingcats thai had become vacant due lo death2 before the civil
war.'
dominant role in the selection of lhe new legislators parallels its involvement In ill major Lebanese political and iccurity matins gince the rcroova] of Christian General Awn last October. The negotiations surrounding
ratified. <#
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Syra successfully pressed for small Carployments ofForces (LAF) uniu to South Lebanon in February despiteof LAF Comrruuxter Uhud. Damascus ramrxied ihnxighcbariesc Cabinet and rbbotul Assembly the new bilateral TreatyCoc^erauoo, and Coordination" in the course or only(3)
New Iatpotlesiaoce
Moat of the new lespslauns are laAanesc polibcians in tbe traditional mold.
f the new deputies ly roembers. andave some mTutia background. The Cabinet alto tookportunity to appointf iu roemben to the legislature, bringing tbe total Dumber of Cabinet mrrasters la the Naborul Assemblyhe proportion of Cabinet mini pen who also are deputies (four-fifths) is uDDTTxedentednese history. Wenajoriry-pcrobly as manyof ihe new legislators are pro-Syrian.
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All of the Shia appomtees have strong ties to Syria. They nave tittle credibility among their coreligionists, however, and lack independent power bases. Agriculture Minister Muhsin Dallul, for exairiple, rqjortcctly is more often thought ofruie by other Shias because of his pas association with the Progressive Socialist Party. Other new Shia deputies lack credibility because of their association with Amal militia leader Nabih Barri. wtaose own standingoeted because of his perceived corTuyxion and pjbafavierjce
The Maronite Christian appcanurkents exclude represenotives from the nuirtstrearn Maioaite cooununiry. Alraofi all of them have close ties with Syria or tbe Lebanese Forces militia, which is disliked by much of Maronite populace. TV seJccrsesioile^
leader Tlie Hubuyoa are
o most Maronites. They were appointed to the symbolically important seau of former President Caunille CJumoun and Pnalange Party founder Pierre Gemaycl. urkkascoring Syria's efforts to punish iu former Maronite adversaries. HLaaV
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Otber Lebanese Reactions
the criticism about the large number of Syrian supporters airrortg the new deputies and iheir lack of credibility, most Ubanese appear to have gsXapted thc appointrnenoense of resigrujtion or apathy.
[most Lebanese, including many poUtical j
kaders. anticipated that Damascus would use lhe deputy appointment process to reward iu Ixbanese lilies and help foster the developmentewithin the Muslim and Christian communities. WktWH
issue lacked the cnttOooal impact of )
new bilateral treaty with Syria, which provoked street; protests from some prominent Quinism. MaW
The reaction from anti-Syrian Lebanese and those not represented by any of the new appointees has been generally rxedjctable. Those deputies who were elected in2 legislati ve races and were closely altrned with Iraq and General Awn criticize the appointment process, arguing thai there should have been open democratic elections lo fill thc parliamentary vacancies. The Lebanese Communist Party maintains that its lack of representation will set bade lhc march towards greater democracy in Ubanon. Some imfcpendent Shia figures have been critical of the Shia appoint mam because some of these deputies allegedly*do not reside in the neighborhoods that they axe supposedesenL**yJ|^
The reaction of the major militias varies:
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Druze leader Junblan said thai although the appointments brought several prominent politicians into the National Assembly, representation for some districts is poor.
Amal leader Barri lauded the process, saying it will speed imptementation of thc rernaining provisions in Ta'if.
rnudangc Party leader Sa'adah stated thai his party nowegislative bloc of respectable size lhat willrominent role in the National Assembly, but he complained that traditional Phalange constituencies were not allocated seats.
Hizballah radio called theharade. It characterized the appointrnents as another Ta'if catastrophe and described the peopie from -chic magazines, opium dens, and cabarets.
Oollook and Implications
The appointment of thc new deputies brings the last major Lebanese polilical
power cento under Syrian control,
count on Ihe support of aluyonty. poinbly as many as two-thirds, of he members of the kcgislature. Ai leastf Che new deputies have such strong tics with Syria that they almost certainly will side with Damascus on all issues of importance racing the legislature. There is little chance that many of
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the new deputies will stray from the Syrian line as long as ihe Syrian miliiary and security services control much of the country. tHfe )
Syrian control of the Lebanese legislature will enable Darnascus to strongly tofluence leadership dcvelcaxnents in Lebanon. With Its controliajority of the deputies, Damascus probably win be able to manage rhe, timing as well as tbe eventual outcomeesidential elections. In addition, because thc Assembly has tbe responsibility under the Ta'if accord loew pailuunentary ekction law, Damascus may attempt to Innuence the process to further redistribute .power in favor of its allies, particularly at the expense of tbe Mammas.
The large number of Cabinet tncrnbers now in the National Assembly probably will ensure that tbe legislature actsibberstanrp for Cabinet decisions, reinforcing the Cabinet's preerninenl policymaking role in the government. We believe the Cabinet mini gen will be parucularly attentive to efforts by other legislators to challenge the authority of tbe new joint Lebanese-Syrian ministerial cotrrminees that are bang set up as part of Lebanon's bilateral treaty with Syria. These committees are tasked with coordinating policy between the two tuitionside range of issues that seemingly infringe on traditional prerogatives of the National Assembly in budgetary, trade, commerciaJ. and agnculturalff ft rgj
The absence of an appointee from HubalUh among rhe deputies indicates that Damascus and Beirut failed to convince the group to participate in the poUtical process at least In tbe short term. Syria had unsuccessfully pressed Hizballah toabinet portfolio last
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who at one
raaa^SgjtjprSlrJnena to Ir> legislature were denxHedLeadership Council elections" fa-May.decufion to remain outside tbe govtaTiment will ran forceon Syria to press Hiiballah to accept the ex tension of tbcauthority into areas of southern lebaaon and the Bekaaare finder
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