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YUGOSLAVIA:
Presidency Order! Army Our. of Slovenia
ordtted tht Army to withdraw fromdeadline for demobilization of
uit
paramilitary forces postedrsterdav. and Crrrrrrinm/tor an imminent Army arrack, jfl
The federal Presidency yesicrday ordered all-Army Slovenia wiihin ihrcc monihs.. -
implemented, lhe decision win produce deof Slovenian independence. It will also isolatealmost certainly will do nothing to aid Croatia for fearin progress toward full independence. Theagreb and reinforce belief there thai anto establish full control Over Serbinhabiicd areasi| imminent.rgj
Developments
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Angles for Foreign Capital
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finance minister yesterday claimed his republic
desperately needs foreign loans and said he will ask the Austrians for
as muchillion in trade credits.
He added that Ihe republic has7 billion in warholds onlv iJIUi
W) Ljubljana almost certainty is exaggerating itshope of developing financial links with foreignprobably is countingresh flow of international capital toiransinon to independence.
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Situation Rrpnn
Ytftsin and Landsbrrgis hartilateral accord; minority groupshe breaka-ay republics ore giring Supreme Serinretext for opposing. m M
Agreement
I Landsbergis and lion treaty ioccess ih rough for ethnic Russians
concerned thai Vilnius faces economic and po.iiical isolation if the union treaty is signed, probably views this accordolitical coupignificant bulwark againsi pressure from the center Yelisin wants to show continued Russian suppon for the Baltic repuW.es bui needed explicit guarantees of Russian ty rights to ensureapproval by hisegislature.
Regions Ask To Sign Union Treaty
of procentcr minority groups in ihe One.tr and Cagavz regions of Moldo-a. in Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossein, and in Lithuania's Salcininkai region, as -ell as Estonia's anti-independence interregional council have asked thc USSR Supreme Sovic: foi permission to sign the unionJB
MaVassMI Tradinonnliits. especially (he Soyui faction in ihc Supreme Sov,et. almost certainly will claim this request proves there is signihcantsupport in these breakaway republics for staying in theBBBBBm
Lithuanian radioomb exploded in the Latvian republic Jrocuracy building Wednesday afternoon, injuring one official.
Procemer forces may have targeted the procuracy symbol of Latvia's asscruoi mat republicake precedence over
imon laws
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USSR: Polilical Developments In Georgia
Georgian President Gamsakhurdiyas Round Tabic polilical group last week wonf ineeals in the Supreme Soviet of Adzhana. an autonomous republic in souihwesicrn Georgia. Round
" tia- iu Uvli Willi, aiiiullK
OthCrSMhe CommuniSIS. WhO won SCaiS atSstsSSSSBSsBBBBBBBaSil
^lakhurdiya's most prominent opnoncms is charging inai ihe Georgian Presidem pcrsccuiei political foes; in an inierview iaiurday. Gamsakhurdtya siresscd lhc current need for order over democracy in Georgia
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ataaaaaaaaal Gamsakhurdiya. concerned about his image in thc West and among Sov,ei reformers, has beeness heavyhanded -approach toinority regions but probably is not ready to tolerate significant ethnic Georgian opposition. Round Table's mediocre showing indicates that the Adzhar eleciions probably were lair and that at least some democracy exists inierner test, however, will come in Abkhazia, where an clcciion.is set for .Seniemher.
BOLIVIA: New Antidrug Approach May Limit US Role
Bolivia's Foreign and Interior Ministers are to visil the US earlyto seek acceptance of La Paz's new antidrug stralegy. Ilwno surrender to avoidrovision thatpopular support bui ijai odds wiih Washington's plansthc-extradition of drug kingpin Erwm Guzman, whoThc Army commander has said his service mayto lake on an antidrug mission if key traffickers give;or US aid
I La Paz has been lookingolivian solulioruo theand Ihc strategy responds lo callseduction in Ihein anhdrug
It probaoty wni resist any requesTOcxiraditc
.uaman. whoseees as key io persuading other major traffickers to surrender, and congressional supportermanent ban on extradition may grow.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Slovak Na.ionalists Eying Slovenia
Slovak nationalists are becoming more strident and are likely to look
repubi.emost popular polmcaaa. has cited ith. and cwrren,
wuropcan icacers toendn their declarations of -
7 week called for i
ie deputy chairman of the Slovakian legislature (his ic creationepublic home guard, andor Public Againstonly paeUJEstreamtrongsunk 10
succeiitu! separation from
would encourage those pushing for greater Slovak autonomy:fln.rnum increased Slovak atsenivcoesj will strain Ctechnegoiiailonsew federal constitution.
fret
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In Brief
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legislature has diluted Prime Minister Sharif's bill seeling extraordinary powers to curb criminal. ends Sharif's politxa) honeymoon with legislative allianceill unlikely to improve law-and-order situation. tM B
.Allies of Afghan resistance leaders Gulbuddin. Sayyaf slill holding two recently kidnapped US relief workers.elief facility robbed
i fgeh attacks likely
as West reduces aid to rebels.
Middle East
USSR
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Special Analysis
Up to Hiiballah
itood chant* oj following up Us suites* inif
nittiMti unarming rnitiuas ay worstingaccommodation with Hizballah. Tht group may allowmilitary dtptaymtnts in Hizballah's operating artasa step wotdt^not seriously weaken its military
Th* Harawi government hai mo-ed slowly but methodically to extend in authority since itimetable last March for disarming militias and deploying the Lebanese Armed Forcesl Ii: plan requires militias to turn In or remove from Lebanon all heavy and medium weaponry but lets them keep small arms. Its last major item calls for reestablishing control j- the Hiiballah stronghold of ihcs Valley by late Sepiembci ffffJB
Tfc. I riHUMB
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eirut and southern Lebanon.tne group are no longer permitted io brandish weapons in* myof pan of ils
Jn Betruit's southern suburbs.
vi- 1fi -
other Hizballah facilities in thc south and prevented some g'icrrilli operations, according to press reports
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he government's expanding role. Hizballah's military and apparatus is well suited to adapt to the c' cnv.ronment in Lebanon. It has few medium and nea
of lma"o hide and will continueblcthc Broup to launch guerrilla attacks against Israe
pecial Case
, .wu, nummm
tcrronst apparatus is well suited to adapt to the changing security
)
d neavy weapons: its
could conduct milit Shia -illages in thc Bekaa.
_ ven wuhoutove, and terrorist training in remote
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f^Wy believes its Iranian support and Ihe cominued detention ofWesicrn hostages willonfrontation with the
i!ba,lah lcadc"ehran last month for consultations about the situation in Lebanon and almost
certainly urged Iranress Syria for assurances on the group'secent Hirballaa itatement implied that attempts to forcibly disarm the group may threaten the hostages, suggestingelieves holding hostages will deter Lebanese military action. *BaaH
i vnran wants to avoid oral least delay the disarming of(3)
and is linking the issue publicly to an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The Tehranoften reflects President Rafsanjani'sthis month called the move to disband militias detrimental to thc Palestinian cause and argued that the presence of milium groups in southern Lebanon helped piQiect Syria and Lebanon from the Israeli threat. Tehran probably will try to use its close tics to Damascus lo intervene on Hizballah's behalf but would agree tot compromise arrangement allowing Beirut Tb declare nominal control in the Bckaa assilics J'C notnailcd
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Outlook
Beirut almost certainlyannoi end Hizballah's resistance activities any lime soon, thelready stretched ihin because of recent deploymentsouthern Lebanon. Since Hizballah has virtuallyheavy weapons io turn over. Beirut can claim victory while avoiding military confrontation The LAF almost certainly will mike some symbolic deployments in the Bekaa Valley, as it has elsewhere, in the hope of eventually consolidating its hold. Beirut probably will claim Ihat tie large Syrian miliiary^ the Bekaa obviates thc needarger LAF deployment, sf]
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Special Analysis
TURKEY:
rtlttiotu hart improved steadily tittet
amnumi ixr
end of World War II
d Turkish President Ozal signed an -adc. technical, and scientific
The USSR* deteriorating economy appeane its primary motivation for pursuing close relations wiih Ankara. Soviet leaden see expanded tieselatively inexpensive way to secure much-needed goods,cnise. and some capital, as wellridgeest European markets. Moscow probably believes thateographic proximity and willingness to enter barter arrange men is. can make up for some lost East European trade andeviaic its severe cash mini
since
svtcts more thanillion in export credits for consumer goods, food products, and telecommunications equipment.
Greater Secant) >IMj Stability
Moscow's pui|0ul from Eastern Europe. CFE-mandated force reductions, and rising regional instability also have spurred the Soviets' desiretable, friendly relationship with
the past year, the USSR and Turkey haveumber of agreements to ease tension along their border. Foremost among theseycar friendship and cooperation treaty pledging both countries not to interfere in each other's affairs, to respect each other's territorial integrity, and to hold regular consultations at all levels of
COr.linued
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Republics' Relations Wiih Turkey
Soviet leaders have allowed and even encouraged greater Turkish contacts wiih lhc USSR's republics. The Soviets apparently believe thai secular Turkeyors positive model for (he Muslim republics
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beiween Turkey and the republics can help stabilise the situation along the USSR's southern border. Moscow may also be using the republics to attract greater Turkish investment in the USSR and to secure increased regional economiccooperation without arousanit longstanding Turkish suspicions.
Republic leaders sec expanded relaiions with Turkeyay to - attract investment, increase trade, and show growing authority over Iheir own foreign relations. Thc inhabitants of thc Sovjei Muslim tepublics. for the most part, share ethnic and linguistic links to ihe TufEs and view Turkeyodel sccuhw Islamic state jasssHB
Of the Soviet republics. Aterbaijan hasMic moll developed
visits, concluded comprehensive economic, scientific, and cultural agreements, and arc restoring transportation and communications links severed in the. Thc Russian and Ukrainian republics hosted separate visits by Oral in mid-March during
which several agreements were signed. Turkmeniya. Kazakhstan.
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Kirghitiya. and Uzbekistan also recently concluded economic
agreements with Turkey,
Outlook
Mounting economic problems undoubtedly will lead Moscow to seek greater barter trade and more economic assistance from Ankara in ihe future. It also win continueuffer against Balkan and Middle Eastern instability and reduced tension atony its southern bordr
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Original document.
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