SFjjrrflTOCO*TTRCT TOi PRIORITY EUROPEANE. FROA: CPAS/ISS SLUGS 1
TOTi BUG 91
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SuBJECTi EAST EUROPEAN BRIEF CONTENTS
USSR! SITUATION REPORT
USSRi REPUBLICS' INOEPCNOENCE DRIVES ACCELERATE
JUGOSLAVIA: SITUATION RIPCBT ^BjjVfe
CANJJOOlAi PEACE TALKS RESUME NEXT WEEK
LEBANON: NEW FRICTION IN SOUTH
FRANCE: MITTERRANDre^
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SEpflET
UG 91
CNINAi US EXPORTS LOSING SHARE 2
IN BRIEF
I. USSR: SITUATION REPORT
YEL'TSIN ON TOP
GORBACHEV YESTEROAY APPEARED TO BE ACCEDING TOROLE. WHEN GORBACHEV ADDRESSED THE RUSSIANMEETINGS WITH YEL'TSIN AND THEN WITH THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENTOTHER REPUBLIC LEADERS. YEL'TSIN CLEARLY RAN THE SHOW.THE AGENOA AND CAVE GORBACHEV STAGE DIRECTIONS. ALTERNATELY APPLAUDED ANO BADGERED. THE SOVIETTHE FLOOR. GORBACHEV PLEQfEO TOECREE APPROVINGDECREES YEL'TSIN ISSUED DURING THE CRISIS. IN ADDITION.AN AGREEMENT WITH YEL'TSIN THAT IN CASE EITHER HE WOULD BE REPLACED BY THt OTHER. RESERVATIONS. HOWEVER. ABOUT YEL'TSIN'S STEPS TO ROOTPARTY OUT OF RUSSIAN, INSTITUTIONS ANO SAID THATNOTlTCH HUNT.
IS THE MAIN POLITICAL FORCE SHAPING POLICY
IN THE 'uTSRrGCRBACHEV HAS ACCEPTEDOALITION GOVERNMENT THAT EVENTUALLY MAY OINT CENTER-REPUBLIC EXECUTIVE BODY ANO PERSONNEL CHANGES THAT PUT REFORMERS IN CHARGE OF THE CENTER'S KEY INSTITUTIONS. CONCESSIONS THAT SUGGEST HE REALIZES HE CANOLE ONLY BY COOPERATING WITH YEL'TSIN IN TRANSFERRING POWER TO THE REPUBLICS AND BY IMPLEMENTING MAJOR REFORMS. IN COMING OAYS. HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE PRESSURE 'OR MUCH GREATERNS, INCLUDING REPUBLIC OEMANOS FOR GREATER POWERS UNDER THE UNION TREATY AND FOR THE REMOVAL OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY FROM STATE. SECURITY. AHO ECONOMIC STRUCTURES NATIONWIDE. GORBACHEV'S RELUCTANCE TO HELP HASTEN THE PARTY'S DECLINE SHOWS THAT HE DOES NOT YET FULLY UNDERSTAND THE PUBLIC'S DEMANDS OR THE INEVITABILITY OF DRAMATIC CHANGES. aagMaaX .
>ERSONNEL CHANGES
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THE GENERAL STAFF
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ONLY THE TIP SF
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PAGE OOi TOTi I'OBOBZ AUG 91
YEL'TSIN YESTERCA* TEMPORARILY SUSPINDEO Thi PUBLICATION OF i INCLUDING PPAVDA. AND FIRED THE OF TASS ANO TmE HEAD OF THE NOVOSTl NEWS AGENCY. MET AND PROMISED TO REFORM THE AGENCY AND BECOME APRESS. TkE ACTING CENTRAL MEDIA CHIEF YESTERDAYACTIVITIES OF ALL POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE OFFICIAL COMPANY.
ANY
PUBLIC HAS BECOME SO DISGUSTED WITHHAT THEY PROBABlY'FACE IMMINENT BANKRUPTCY IN
YEL'TSIN CRABS FOR CONTROL OF RUSSIAN ECONOMY
. .VU.MSIN MAS-MOVED QUICKLY TO FURTHER WEAKEN CENTRALVER RUSSIA'S ECONOMY. ISSUING OECREIS THAT CALL FOR THE TRANSFER OF MOST UNION PROPERTY AND ENTERPRISES TO REPUBLIC JURISDICTION BY THE DECREES ALSO CALL 'OR-RUSSIAN JURISDICTION OVER THE ALL-UNION SUPPLY ORGANIZATION. WHICH STILL CONTROLS MOST WHOLESALE CrSTRiBUTiON. THE CREATiqn qf USSIAN GOLD RESERVE ANO DIAMOND ANC
CURRENCt FJSjS. AND SITS UPUSTOMS SERVICE. YEL'TSIN ALSO mas iSSUECECREE THAT EMPOWERS HIM TO APPOINT ANO DISMISS
Mr
DMINISTRATIVE HEADS THROUGHOUT THE REPUBLIC AND THAT SbecifjcalLY DISMISSES EIGHT EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE CHAIRMEN FOR THE
AMBOV, TULA, ULYANOVSK.
LIPETSK, AMUR, AND VLADIMIR
TRUCTUREECONOMIC REFORMS.
ll TAKING ADVANTAGE Of Thi POSICOUP POWER ITY HI HAS BEEN SEEKING IN UNION TREATY NGThEnI NO IXICUTIV! POWIR. YEL'TSIN HOPES TO OF POLITICAL ANO ICONOMIC REFORMS THAT HAVE LY ELICTEO COUNCILS DOMINATED BY HARDLINERS. BABLY BELIEVES THAT IMMEDIATE STRUCTURAL ENSURE COMPLIAMCI WITH ECONOMICRUSH FRAGILE. EMERGING MARKETS AND STIFLE
[Wlfll*llNSTAI
regime remove kim ani communists. they proi who are committed to on through repressivi
MIM; HIS OWN SECURlT' BE LESS WILLING TO Al
SHAKEUP IN FOREIGN RELATIONS
PRESIDENT GORBACHEV SAID YESTERDAY HI HAD FIRED FOREIGN MINISTER BISSMERTNYKH FOR HIS FAILURE TO OPPOSE THE COUP, 8ESSMERTNYKH CLAIMEO HE HAD DECLINED THE EMERGENCY COMMITTEE'S
SECRET
IECSj^ET
TCI:
PACE COS* AUG SI
RTTVER
AUTHORIZES SlWUtt Ol O'hEh PARI* PROPISTr. Li t'LCS . . . LENIN STATU! IN VILNIUS DISMANTLED,
Ai PART* BANNED FRQPi WORKPLACES . . .LCHIN STATUE TOPPUD.^J
ACTCRHS. STATE AGENCIES . SSR POLITBURO . . . LARGE SSEO RESOLUTION CALLING IOR
UKRAINE: PARTY HEA03UARTERS IN LVOV. IH WESTERN UKRAINE, BLOCKADED BY CROWDS . . , OTHER PARTY BUILDINGS IN REGION CLOSED . . . SOME USK NATIONALISTS DEMAND CAN 01 PARTY AND NATIONALIZATIONASSETS. APPEAL FOR ANTi-COMMUNIST RALLY TO REINFCRCE DEMANDSRGENCl SESSION 01 PARLIAMENT TODAY
MOLDOVA: PRESIDENT BANS PARTY FROM FA PARTY'S TlRST SECRETARY RESIGNS FROMALLY IN KISHINEV CA OUTiAwIO
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PRESIOINT CAMSAIHURD*ta ECHOES CALLS BY OTHERS inSECUT^^UrT MEMBERS WHO SUPPORTED COUP. NATIONALIZE
A"JARTIES BANNED PROM LAW-ENFORCEMENT. SECURITY AGENCIES . . .PAID PARTYD FROM GOVERNMENT JOBS y TO LEAVE t
KTRGYZSTAN: CENTRAL COMMITTEE BUILOINCS. LENIN nuSCUM NATIONALIZEDFROM PRESIDENTIAL CABINET . ACERS P** MEMBER; DEMANDING RESIGNATION OF PARTY'S TOP
TAJIKISTAN: BANS PARTIES AT MVD. JUSTICE MINISTRY . . . ALlOwSRj^RS TO CONTINUE POL IT ICALR AFTER HOURS, CIS.I!
ARMENIA: PARTY PROPERTY NATIONALIZED LAST APRIL.
TURKMENISTAN. UZBEKISTAN: NO ACTION REPORTED
BUORUSSIA. *Zf AGAINST PARTY
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PARTY TOTTERING ACROSS USSI
A'TER SEALING COMMUNIST PARTY CENT SEIZED THE HEADQUARTERS OF THE RAT) IMPOUNDED DOCUMENTS. WHICH WILL Bt COMPLICITY IN TNE COiJP ATTEMPT.
ANO MOLDOVAN COMMUNtST PAF
ANO POLITBURO MEMBERS CLEG SHENIN WIRE ARRESTED. ThI Ml NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS Qff ICIALL1ERI0 "Its WITH THE PARI ShAPOSHNIKOV HAS ANNOUNCED HIS If AMD HAS ORDERED THE GENERAL STAFF THE MILITARY. wiYh GORBACHEV LOOK
suspending *ll communist party ac investigation of thi coup. in an party leaders issued disclaimerscrbachev warned tne rlommunist
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TMt PARTY SEiZEO. II
INVESTIGATION IS CERTAIN TO REVEAL SIGNIFICANT PARTY COMPLICITY IN THE COUP ATTEMPT. WHICH WILL LIAO TO THE ARRESTS OF MORE PARTY FIGURES ANO ACCELERATE ITS DECLINE. FURTHER PARTY DEFECTIONS AM PROTES'S ARE LIKELYCUT THE COUNTRY. DEFECTIONS WILL HIT THE
NARCEST IN THE PROVINCES. THE LAST REMAINING BASTION OF PARTY INFLUENCE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL FORCE GORBACHEV TO RENOUNCE THE
PARTY CR RISK CFQING MUCH OF HIS REMAINING LEGITIMACY'TSIN OTHERS
2. USSRi REPUBLICS' INDEPENDENCE DRIVES ACCELERATE
ESTONIA. LATVIA. LITHUANIA. ANO GEORGIA. EMBOLDENED BV THE COLLAPSE OF CENTRAL AUTHORITY. ARE LIKELY TO PUSH FOR IMMEDI INDEPENDENCE! ARMENIA AND MOLDOVA WILL PROCECO MORE SLOWLY._
THE BALTIC REPUBLICS HAVE MOVEO WITH PARTICULAR SPEED AGAINST THE REMAINING" VESTIGES OF CENTRAL HE LATVIANS AND LITHUANIANS HAVE TAKEN CONTROL OF THE IR REPUBLICS' COMMUNIST PARTY HEADQUARTERS. THEHS ARE ASSERTING THEIR AUTHORITY OVER MAJOR CENTER-CONTROLLED ENTERPRISES AND HAVE DEMANDED THAT ALL KGB PEfiSCNNIi BE WITHDRAWN FROM THE REPUBLIC. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS. MEANWHILE. MOLDOVANENT SHE CURALLY EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT HE WAS CONSIDERING OiSCUSSICN OF MOLOOVAN INOEPENOENCEEXT LEGISLATIVE SESSION. ARMENIA iS PLANNINGO Aft AO" WITH ITSTlt SEPTEMBER INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM. BUT PRESIDENT TEfl-PETROSYAMO THIS WEEK THAT REPUBLIC OFFICIALS MAY RETHINK CERTAIN ASPECTSHEIR INOIPEHOINCE.STRATEGY. PERHAPS WITHO SHORTENING THE SECESSION Jfg
^HflBB-THC DRAMATIC SHIFT IN POWER AT THE CENTER AND THE ASCEwTjANCY OfYEL'TSIN. WHO HAS PROVEO SYMPATHETIC TO REPUBLIC INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENTS. OFFER THE BREAKAWAY REPUBLICS THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEAVE THE UNION MORE QUICKLY ON MORE FAVORABLE TERMS THAN WOULO HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE. RUSSIA WILL BE THt CRITICAL PLAYER. EITHER BY ACTING AS AN INTERMEDIARY IN INDEPENDENCE NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE CENTER OR BY PUSHINGNION TREATY THAT GREATLY EASES THE TERMS OF SECESSION. WITH CHANGEOVERS AT THE INTERIOR ANO OEFENSE MINISTRIES ANO THE KGB, THE CENTER WILL BE MUCH LESS ABLE TO SUPPRESS REPUBLIC INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENTS. AND HARASSMENT OF THE EPJ3LICS IS LIKELY TO END. ^Pfe
IF GRANTED INDEPENDENCE. THE BALTIC REPUBLICS COULD FUNCTION AS INOEPENOENT STATESEW MONTHS. ALTHOUGH FINALIZING ARRANGEMENTS CN SUCH ISSUES AS SOVIET TROOP STATIONING WILL TAKE LONGER. CECRGIA PROBABLY WILL ALSO CLAIM INDEPENDENCE AS SOON AS THE CENTER ALLOWS IT. TERRITORIAL DISPUTES AND DETERIORATING ECONOMIES. HOWEVER. MAY LE AO ARMENIA AMO MOLOOVA TO HESITATE. HOPING THAT YEL'TSIN WILL USE HIS INCREASED POWER TO ACHIEVENION TJUATi THAT CREATES THE MUCH LOOSER CONFEDERATION THEY MIGHT PREFi
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TUOJHAN ISSUES ULTIMATUM '
PRESIDENT TUOJHAN ON THURSDAY ISSUED AN ULTIMATUM TM TNE COLLECTIVE PRESIDENCY THREATENtNfi TO TAKE ALLJi" TO DEFEND HIS REPUBLIC UNLESS MILITAHY OPIRATIONS AGAINST IT UGUST. NTiNG BETWEEN CROAT ANO SERB FORCES CONT-SuEO
ATL'M
ROAY IN THI SLAVONIANN OF CROATIA ANO SOUTH OF EAGRES.
COES NOT COMMAND THE MILITARY STRENGTH TO AGAINST THE SERBS OR THE ARMY. BUT MIS
DESPERATION MAY LfAO HIM TO APPROVE ATACKS THAT WOULD BROADEN THE CONFLICT. ARMY AND SERB FORCES ALMOST CIRTAINLY UQULoVtaiTaTF
EAO. "SiS I r,
AUSTRI
EXPORT CUAtANTEES TO
cess-as fiz.ztKiz Milosevic TO RETRACT CONCESSIONS WAS COMPELLED TO GRANT ID THE SERBJZJER DEMONSTRATIONS LAST MARCH IN BELC-PAOE. JM
GUA
ENNA NEXT MONTH WILL EXWO WEEKS AGO
VIENNA AND BONN ALSO MAY RENEW EFFORTS TO GAIN EURO-TAN CONSENSUS FORNO POSSIBLY CROATIA. PARTICULARLY IF THE BALTIC REPUBLICS NOW MOVE OULCKLYlTPllAHB INDEPENDENCE AND WIN INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION?
AHBOOIA s PEACE TALKS RESUME NEXT WEEK
THE MEETINGAMBODIA'S SUPREME NATIONAL COUNCIL NEXTLAND APPEARSflTAXKUWO TOUGHEST OF THE
t-A
SECRET
CSS
is
HAESENCE
CONTROL .
IPRtNCC SiHANOUR ON WLOKl SUAT JtSKClT THE"SlDMALLY
, H!ELI-BACKED ARMY OF SOUTH LEBANON YESTEROAY DEMANDED THAT RESIDENTS EVACUATE THREE SHIA VILLAGES IN AREAS Tlt.HBAjESI ARMY NORTH OF THE ISRAELI SECURITY ZONE. lafl-ptfHlTHE AS. AND LEBANESE ARMY TROOPS DEPLOYEDE i M FORCES AlSO
AlTHOUmH THE LEBANESE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT WANT TORAEL I VCLVEHI NT. IT CANNOT IGNORE THE ASL'S PROVOCATION FOR 'EAR THAT ITS OWN EFFORTS TO RECAIN CREDIBILITY WILL SUFF?R. actTon AGAINST THE ASL WOULO INCREASE MUSLIN COMPLAINTS. ESPECIALLY S'NCt THE ARMY BEGAN DOOR-TO-OOORR WEAPONS LAST THURSDAY i" AREAS INCLUDING THE PALESTINIAN CAMPS. BEIRUT ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL TRY TO USE DIPLOMATS CONTACTS TO CALM THE SI TuATi ON BUT W NOT HESITATE TO RESPOND MILITARILY TO FURTHER ASL AFFRONTS. THE LEBANESL GOVERNMENT HOPES TO BEGIN SHUTTING DOWN HIZBALLAH FAC ILITiJ FALL BUT PROBABLY WILLORMAL CO-AHEAO FROM SYRIA.
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TOTi UG
7. FRANCE: HITTERRAN'] UNDER
PRESIOENT HITTEBRANO IS IE ING HEAVILY CBITlCIZFC FOB
HESITAMT REACTION TO THE SOVIET COUP. ANO HIS RULING SOCIAL 5
COULD SUFFER IN REGIONAL EL ICTIDNS NEXT YEAR ASESULT HE APPEASE0 WILLING TO ACCEPT THE COUP MONDAY BUT TNEN TOUGHIC HIS STANCE WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COUP UNRAVELED. Twt BIGHT I$ alSC ABGUING
vPHpMfeHITTFBRAND NOW APPEARS VULNERABLE ON FOBEICN .
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LI ST DIVISIONS OVER BUOGET01 ACADE Of UNITY .FOR THE ELECTIONS.
B. CHINA, US EXPORTS LOSING SNARE*
uN,
INCREASED ZS TOAPID INROADS. ALBEIT fROH SMALLER BASES?
HE KEY* US EXPOBTS--CHEMICALS. TIMBFB. AHO PLASTICS"fi U* BECAUSE Of CHINA'S BAPIO INDUSTRIAL GROWTH. BECAUSE ARE CONCENTRATED EW PBODUCT LINES HOWEVER, IMPORT ONS HAVE Di SPROPCBT: CNATELY ha-bfrti nrnio mpnafiuT uc
THE US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION, THE CONCESSIONAL FINANCING BY EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS THAT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
JfTuiurePEANC^HPANiES Sh IoGE. BEIJING ALSO WANTS TO IMPROVE TIES TO EUROPE BEFORE EC INTEGRATION
MONG KONG. /
TRENGTH
INNO IS ANXIOUS TO COUNTER TAIWAN'S ACTIVE ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY TO BEIJING IN OVERCOMING ECONQMII
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--ALBANIA'S ThREI MAIN OPPOSITION PARTIES ON THURSDAY JOINTLY .
Original document.
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