INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS SITUATION REPORT

Created: 1/8/1992

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Directorate of Intelligence

WOTMICROFIIMED

International Narcotics Situation Report

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International Narcotics Situation Report I-

Perspective Hate Cocaine Flows to the United Statesj

A review of admittedly imprecise cocaine production, seizure, and other data for ihc past four years suggests tliat the cocaine flow to the United States may have contracted by aboutercent8 and the end

Indicatorseduction in Flows

Seizures of cocaine and European cocaine consumption have been rising faster than cocaine production:

of cocaine8 represented abouterceni of estimated Una! production potential;eizures had risen io more thanercent of potentially available cocaine.

Twoandfor nearly two-thirds of Latin American seizures and almostercent of worldwide seizures

Wc estimate that the cocaine market in Europe, though significantly smaller than in the United States, has nearly tripled

In contrast, cocaine production potential in Latin America lias grown relativelyour eslimalc. rising less thanercentSNF)

This pictureontracting cocaine trade to the Uniled Stales is consistent with other tentative indicators that trafficking is stagnating or declining:

Surveys by the National Institute of Drug Abuse show an overall decline in cocaine users8 ioaercent reduction in past-month users, forsome upturnhile the surveys do not provide estimates of cocaineecline in users plausibly suggests that consumption is Hat or falling.

According to Drug Enforcement Administration reporting, cocaine prices in the United States have risen somewhathough price trends are difficult to interpret, this increase,ackdrop of stagnant consumplion, couldightening of cocaine suppljcs.1

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Projections2

Indicators2 arc mixed so far but pointhc probability of flat or declining cocaine supplies lo ihc United States. Welight fall in coca production this year the resultownturn in cultivation0e also believe that the European market is continuing to grow, and we expect seizures to surpass the record figure reachedowever, cocaine seizures in Latin America have fallen off Ihis year. Mexico, which has had equipment problems,

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ocnina lasteizure pace. At trie present rate, they willombined lotal of aboutetric tons of cocaine, downetric tons lastthough seizures may rebound at the end of the year, much as they did in the last quartern the other hand, according to preliminary Drug Enforcement Administration data, US fcderalwide seizures arc upmetric ions in Ihc first half of fiscalomparedetric tons for all off this rule continues, US seizures would more thanecline in Latin America and would resultet drop in cocaine available for the US market.

Mexico: Salinas Grapples Wilh Corruption

President Salinas hastrong stand against official corruption, much ol it narcotics related, to polish his image, rebuild public confidence in tbe ruling Institutional Ro-olaikriary Partynd garner support for major economic reforms,ree trade pact svith Washington Salinas's anticor-ruption measures, more extensive than thoseby previous administrations, include both major institutional reforms and specific Heps toopportunities for graft among governmentOverall, Salinas's activist stance is paying dividends; the ruling party's recent rise in popularity is partly attributable to tbe administration's tight against corruption, and businessmen al borne and abroad sec these reforms as part of Mexico's commit-

The Campaign Against Corruption

President Salinas has made war on officialey component of his effort to modernize Mexico. The campaign is designedncrease government

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and efficiency, improve (he business climate, and rekindle popular support in the ruling Instnution-al Revr>luUorMr> Party (PRIX Salinas also realizes Ihat cracking down on MKJXscs-related corruption is necessary to boost his irytxrTtraciils antidrug pertor-rrtance. Tbe campaign encomcaaacs both high-profile direct lnliutrvca, such as renvoi :ng suspect pexsceineJ frotn office and rcorgamiirtg entirend indirect measures like changing governmental procedures and regulations that have cut into oprsortu-nitics lor revenue skimming by federal and state

Direct Mease re

To drive home the seriousness of his anticormptton stance. Salinas, early in bis tenure, moved against several powerful and corrupt individuals, netting both pablk orBciaLs and privaie-sectort-Jiio tbe ant several monihs of taking Ofncc. for example. Salinas jailed tbe corrupt leader of the large and influential oil workers' anion, and the directorajor Mexican stock brokerage bouse, wbo ptirported-ly bad embezzled millions oforrnerSecretary alto was barred from government service forean for failing to rnoci federalfor full disclosure by public officials of all

Wc: olice officials have been fired or jailed on charges of impropriety perhaps as tnaoy asthethree years of Salinas's term tbaa during the entire sis-year administration of his rrrcdecessor. Miguel de La Madridj

Assessing the Reiult*

Measured against Salinas's originalhis own and the ruling party's image and helping improve Ihe tavestmealadministration's amsccrrvpuof) campaign has paid sabauniial political dividends. The public percept ton thai Salinas is doing more on this front than his predecessors probably aided the ruling party's strong performance in mid-term elcctioas lim year.)

The private lector, in particular, has given Salinas's amicurruptlon campaign high marks, hailing theof official ovcrstalting and redtnpe Many businessmen say that they have seen corruption levels recede measurably in the past two years and have cited Customsarticularood eiampie of "aa agency that has cleaned up itsusiness leaders also have expressed satisfaction wiih tbe results of Salinas's port reorganization, saying that the move has reduced cargo-handling costs while increasing duty revenues fot the government!

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