The DCI Strategic Warning Committee's
Afghanistan: The Taiiban may be engagingeliberate program to eliminate potential opponents, (page 3)
Angola: Increased fighting puts population at risk, (page
Burundi: The security situation is declining rapidly, (page 4)
DROC: The power vacuum creates an emnronment conducive to atrocities, (page 5)
Iraq: The government continues to systematically repress large segments of the Iraqi populace,
Liberia: Increased insurgency threatens ethnic-based retaliation, (page 6)
FROM: Nalional Intelligence Officer for Warning
The DCI Strategic Warningn conjunction with the National Intelligence Officer for Economics and Global Issues, is issuing the third quarterly Atrocities Watchlist.
Walchlist includes countries where there is evidence of or the potential for significant political repression or systematic human rights abuses that could leadeliberate pattern of widespread atrocitiesajor hunutnitarian emergency over the nextonths. "Atrocities" include killings, maiming, or forced expulsions of the population. The list also includes countries in which ongoing violence could escalate and leadeliberate pattern of atrocities against unarmed civilians.
Current Level of Concern
(As compared to the DCI Strategic Warning Committee's Atrocities Watchlist,
forces conducted a
he Taliban may be engagingeliberate program to eliminate potential opponents.
DCI Suaicgic Warning Comnriuee is chaired by (he National lntelligejtce Officer for Warning andof representatives of Ihc Directors of the National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence(he National Imagery and Mapping Agency; ihe Assistant Secrwary of Staie for Intelligence andthe Deputy Director for Intelligence. Central Intelligence Agency. Comments and inquiries mav bethe National Intelligence Officer for Warning
humanitarian emergency causeduturul disaster oronflict where only incidental or random human occur is not included on this list
"scorched earth"or destroying thousands of homes and buildings north of Kabul in early August. Press reports indicate thateople have been displacedesult of Taliban actions. The forced evacuations may have specifically targeted ethnic Tajiks, presumed to be loyal to opposition leader
New lo Watchlist
Masood. Last year, the Taliban were similarly accused of committing atrocities against the Shiite Muslim Hazaras. In addition, Taliban forces did kill large numbers of POWs following the capture ofharif.
forces haveecond offensive lo cut Masood line ofand reportedly are assembling tractors and other heavy vehicles to support another "scorchedampaign. p
fl Angola: The government's offensive against UNITA base areas has caused the additional displacement of noncombatants, severely hampered humanitarian relief efforts, and further disrupted the country's commercial and agricultural systems. Major military operations arc likely to continue for several weeks as the government tries to press its early advantage in this round of fighting to improve its position in possible peace talks, while UNITA is almost certain to counterattack for the same reason.
fighting has forced tens of thousands of Angolans to fiee the central highlands and otlter areas, some to neighboring countries. Althoughside hasolicy of targeting civilians in this longstanding civil war, relief supplies to civilians have been disrupted or cut off. and relief workers have been threatened and
t Burundi: President Buyoya's government has taken steps to better protect Bujumbura's predominantly Tutsi population from Burundi Hutu rebels by rearming Tutsi militias, giving the Army free rein in conducting counterinsurgency operations, andampaign that has forcedesidents intoegroupment sites south of Bujumbura. Although ethnic violence is not yet on the same scale asHutu rebels shelled the capitalhumanitarian and security situation could worsen if large numbers of well armed Rwandan Hutu insurgents return from the DROC and the government fails to restrain Tutsi extremists from torpedoing the peace process by killing Hulu politicians and increasing the frequency of discriminate attacks on Hutu civilians.
severe lack of food, water, shelter, and medical care have been reported in these sites. Uputve been displaced in Burundi over the course ofthe six-year civil war.
ROC: The power vacuum (hat currently exist throughout most of the country creates an environment conducive to atrocities by rebel forces, pro-Kabila troops, and armed groups beholden to neither side. Rumors of atrocities, however, may proliferate as rival sides accuse each other of genocide.
Despite the shaky cease-fire, reporting from multiple sources indicates that it is likely to be short-lived. The government and the rebels view it primarilyiatus to be used for preparing for the next round of hostilities. Also, the factors ttutt led to the raping, torturing, and killing of noncombatants and members of rival ethnic groups over the past year have not been resolved. Lawlessness, ethnic luttreds, and poor troop discipline are likely to remain serious problems for months to come, regardless of whether the fighting resumes, or the cease-fire holds and protracted negotiations soon follow.
reviously on Ihc Watchlist as Indonesia-East Timor.
Iraq: Baghdad continues to repress large segments of the Iraqi populace as part of its efforts to reestablish total control and stifle the activities of Western or Iranian-supported polilical opposition groups.
has recentlyolicy of collective punishment for combating unrest, intended to coerce local tribal leaders into supporting the regime. Tribal leaders have been threatened with the destruction of their homes, villages, and fields if they fail to control antiregime forces operating in tribal areas, and numerous villages have been razed in recent months
'Opposition sources in recent months have accused Baghdad of massin response to continued unrest.
reporting on Iraq's increased child mortality rates has ted to charges that Baghdad is purposefidly denying resources to the Iraqi people to use their plightropaganda weapon against sanctions.
o Liberia: The risk of atrocities against civilians, especially civic leaders and ethnic minorities, is growing as President Charles Taylor and his security respondsore active insurgent threat. Although the security situation in the northwest of the country has been stabilized, ethnic violence in Liberia over the past several months reached its most serious leveloreover, the rebels continue to recruit and train as they prepare for further attacks. Renewed unrest would threaten to plunge Liberia into another civil war and could also sink the fragile cease-fire in Sierra Leone and spill over into Guinea, where Taylor has launched attacks against suspected insurgent bases. Tlie violence could easily escalate.
udden humanitarian crisis.
Most ofthe security forces are underpaid, undisciplined, and prone to over-react. They would target unarmed civilians if social order broke down.
olombia's internal security situation has deteriorated substantially during the past several years as the insurgency and the rival paramilitary groups grew in size and strength. The increasing lawlessness and declining ability of government to maintain order have created an atmosphere conducive to major human rights abuses. In particular, paramilitary expansion throughout the country has substantially increased the number of displaced persons, and clashes between paramilitaries and insurgents have taken their toll on civilians.
have impressed boys and young men from rural areas and therespond by killing those who are suspected of supporting FARC and ELN. The cycle of forced recruitment by insurgents and reprisal killings by paramilitaries is causing many to flee areas being contested.
RY-Kosovo: The arrival of KFOR has ended for now the ethnic cleansing and other atrocities against Albanian Kosovars. However, the ethnic-based hatred and strong tradition of vendettas lurk just below the surface; revenge killings can be expected from both camps. The situation would likely deteriorate should KFOR be reduced or withdraw from Kosovo.
minorities elsewhere in tlieAlbanians in Montenegro, Slavic Muslims in the Sandjak, and the ethnic Magyars in thecould suffer human rights abuses at the hands of the increasingly isolated and hostile Serb majority.
o North Korea: Although the food situation has improved somewhat in recent months because of foreign aid. large pockets of the population continue lo face starvation conditions. This situation will not improve as the regime adamantly refuses to reform its "chuche" system of self-reliance. The North, therefore, will remain dependent on outside assistance to feed ils people indefinitely. It will continue to experience cyclical shortages, especially in tlie spring and summer, that result in widespread malnutrition and, in some areas, starvation. Any hard currency Pyongyang obtains from the easing of US sanctions or South Korean investments in the North may alleviate these conditions but will noi change ihcm fundamentally.!-
Moreover, the Community hastudy of the North's penal system that defectors and escapees claimgulag" reminiscent of the Soviet model. Thus far, intelligence reporting appears lo corroborate their claims that, if accurate, indicate P'yongyang has for many years engagedeliberate pattern of widespread atrocities. Further investigation is required, however, to determine the number of camps involved, how they are administered, and the number of prisoners incarcerated in them.
U Sierra Leone: Renegade fighters continue to attack civilians, abduct foreigners, and clash with each othereace agreement between rebel leader Foday Sankoh and President Kabbah. Numerous sources report cases of rape and impressemenl of civilians, and major parts of the country are inaccessible to the government and international observers. Forces on both sides remain armed and Ihe Nigerian peacekeepers arc planning to pull out over the next several months, although they may be replaced by or resubordinated to UN forces.
hundreds of thousands of displaced persons-receiving humanitarian aid are potential targets for atrocities by undisciplined ex-combatanls.
* New to Watchlist
V Macedonia: FYROM's political and economic health continues to deteriorate and ethnic Slav and Albanian communities maintain an uneasy coexistence with the Albanian community continuing to press for expandedollapsing economy and growing concern about Albanian nationalism could prompt Slavs and pro-Serbian groups in Macedonia to turn against the local Albanian minority.
Slavs are increasingly fearful that Macedonian Albanians ultimately want to become partreater Albanian state. Although ethnic Albaniansare not clamoringreater Albania, this view eventually could change, particularly if Albaniareater degree of stability and Kosovoiable independent entity.
Russia-Northussian military operations against Chechen-based Islamic rebels haveumanitarian crisis in the region. Russian bombing has killed civilians and causedivilians to flee, most going to Ingushetia.opulation of, Ingushetia and other neighboring republics are among Russia's poorest areas and cannot support the influx. Refugees riskroblem not only for adjoining Russian regions but for neighboring Georgia and Azerbaijan. Aid is only trickling into the region and as winter sets in the situation will get worse. Moreover, continued fighting will complicate relief efforts. Experience from the first war in Chechnya indicates that Russian forces may indiscriminately persecute local residents in the guise of cracking down on terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism. I-
* New to WaichltstOriginal document.