up plans for the raid.They ran two complete rehearsals in the United States
during the fall of 1997.
National Security Advisor Sandy Berger through the basic plan on February 13.
One group of tribals would subdue the guards, enter Tarnak Farms stealthily,
grab Bin Ladin, take him to a desert site outside Kandahar, and turn him over
to a second group.This second group of tribals would take him to a desert land-
ing zone already tested in the 1997 Kansi capture. From there, a CIA plane
would take him to New York, an Arab capital, or wherever he was to be
arraigned. Briefing papers prepared by the Counterterrorist Center acknowl-
edged that hitches might develop. People might be killed, and Bin Ladin's sup-
porters might retaliate, perhaps taking U.S. citizens in Kandahar hostage. But the
briefing papers also noted that there was risk in not acting. "Sooner or later,"
they said, "Bin Ladin will attack U.S. interests, perhaps using WMD [weapons
of mass destruction]."
NSC staff then told the CIA planners to go ahead and, among other things,
start drafting any legal documents that might be required to authorize the
covert action.The CSG apparently stressed that the raid should target Bin Ladin
himself, not the whole compound.
operation as "somewhat embryonic" and the CIA as "months away from doing
anything."
would keep Bin Ladin in a hiding place for up to a month before turning him
over to the United States--thereby increasing the chances of keeping the U.S.
hand out of sight. "Mike" trusted the information from the Afghan network;
it had been corroborated by other means, he told us.The lead CIA officer in
the field, Gary Schroen, also had confidence in the tribals. In a May 6 cable to
CIA headquarters, he pronounced their planning "almost as professional and
detailed . . . as would be done by any U.S. military special operations element."
He and the other officers who had worked through the plan with the tribals
judged it "about as good as it can be." (By that, Schroen explained, he meant
that the chance of capturing or killing Bin Ladin was about 40 percent.)
Although the tribals thought they could pull off the raid, if the operation were
approved by headquarters and the policymakers, Schroen wrote there was
going to be a point when "we step back and keep our fingers crossed that the
[tribals] prove as good (and as lucky) as they think they will be."