CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW: SINO-SOVIET TACTICS ON EAST-WEST ISSUES

Created: 8/7/1958

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intelligence weekly review

Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLKiENCE AGENCY

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY8

THE WEEK IN BRIBE

P IMMEDIATE INTEREST

SINO-SOVIET TACTICS ON EAST-WEST ISSUES Page 1

Id his lettersugust to tbe three Western heads of government, Khrusbcbev do longer called forimmediate five-power summit conference On tbeBast but demanded that this problem be consideredpecial session of the UN General Assembly as soon as possible. He sought, however, to offset any negative free world reaction by reaffirming his desire for summit talks on general East-West problems, as first proposed last December. This shift In tacticsreflects Kbru8bcbev's recognition of the failure of Soviet efforts to force the United States andto accept Moscow's terms for five-power talks on Lebanon and Jordan and his desire for an immediate world forum in which to denounce American and British actions lo tbe Middle Bast before the crisisdissipates further.

Tbe Chinese Communista bad endorsed Khrushchev's call forummit talks on the Middle East in the communiqueugust following the Khrushchev-Mao talks In Peiping. Khrushchev, however,decided to drop this line after studying the latest British and American notes. The Chinese Communistsugust promptly supported his new proposals for aAssembly sessionummit conference on general world problems.

Khrushchev and Mao Tse-tung probably coordinated Sino-Sovlot policy On general East-West Issues andIntrabloc problems. Pulping Is maintainingon tbe Chinese Nationalists by moving air unitsPuklen Province opposite Taiwan. Any Nationalist counteraction could be used by tbe Communists as grounds for Insisting on tbe Inclusion of tbe Taiwan Issue on the agenda of any future summit conference. The Chinese Communists, however, are unlikely to start majorin the near future, although there Is aof serious air clashes in tho area.

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THE WEEK IN BRIEF

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CUBREfcT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY8

T IMMEDIATE INTEREST

SINO-SOVIET TACTICS ON EAST-WEST ISSUES

etters

Soviet Premier Khrushchev calledugustpecial session of the UN Generalto discuss theof Western forces fromand Jordan. Bis letters to the three westorn beads of government reflect Moscow'sfor an Immediate world forum in which to denounce American and British actions in the Middle East boforc theatmosphere dissipates

Khrushchev's tactical shift away from his standeek ago for an immediate conference on tbe Middle East within the Security Council framework of the Big Pour beads of government, plus Indian Prime Minister Nehru and UN Secretary General Hammarskjold, represents atemporary suspension of Moscow's efforts to exploit the divergence of Western views on imaodiatw sum-Bit talks and probably reflects Moscow's views that the aease of "extreme emergency" isdespite Sovietand propaganda attempts to maintain this atmosphere.

Moscow may feel that Brit-lab and American recognition of the new Iraqi Governmenttbe plausibility of its allegations that aattack oa Iraq is However, Moscow is attempting to keep this fear alive with reports ofWestern troop movements and charges that westernof the new Iraqiisactic to gain

time for preparationnew attack on the Arab peoples."

Although Khrushchev'snote onuly bad not cloned the doorompromise formulaummit meeting within the UN framework, his notesugust repeated his earlier objections to anmeeting of the Security Council, wblch be attacked ascommittee"American domination with China represented by acorpse." In aa Interview the same day with Adlalthe Soviet premierthat it was "unthinkable" that he sitonference table with Cblang Kai-shek.

ugustalso renewed the Soviet callummit meeting on world issues as first suggested last December. He urged that It be "composed as we hadbetween Westorn and bloc countries, but not including Communist China.

Soviet UN delegate A. A. Sobolev In the Security Council deliberations oa the Lebanese crisis in July had Indicated that Moscow would hold off pressing for an immediatemeeting pendingresponse to Soviet ummit meeting. Moscow apparently now feels that General Assemblyof recent Westernaction in the Middle East will mobilize Arab and Asian neutralist opposition toMiddle Eastern policies and contribute to the appearance

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Ioscow's vigorousmwmsures protectwd tbs Arab world froa furtherIntervention.

Ia the event of aof Western troops froa Lebanon and Jordan, the USSR could also clala credit for forcingove. Moscow appears to believe thwre Is little danger now of an attack on Iraq or the UAR and probably la aore Interested Is dlplo-aatlc aad propagandaof tbs continued presence of British and Aaerlcan troops than la "forcing" their early withdrawal.

Soviet notesugust to Italy and Israel protesting the use of their territory or air space for facilitating the aovemeot of troops and Military supplies to Western forces In Lebanon aad Jordan wers deslgnsd to keep alive publicover recent Westernmoves and to put pressure on pro-Western elements In tbsse governments for theirla Weatern militaryIn tbe Middle East. earlier bad protested to the governments of Turkey. Greece, West Garaany, and Auatrla In an attempt to harasa Western defense arrangements by attaapt-lng to exploit each country's peculiar national interests.

Talks

Soviet Premier Khrushchev's talks with Mao Tse-tuag lawere tbe fourthSlno-sovint discussions heldthe establishment of the Chinese Communist reglae. Tbe two partners, who claimed they reached full agreement,according to their joint communique, tbe strengthening of the Moscow-Pelping alliance

md "mutual assistance." Tha Chinese and Soviet defensewere in attendance.

They apparently alaoSino-Soviet views oa Kast-Waat issues, summit talks, and the long-term problem of cementing bloc unity andthe threat ofparticularly as embodied la Tito's heresies. The Cbi-nese Communist* endorsed'a call for "big-power" summit talks in the communique. Kbrusbchev, however,decided to drop thia Una after studying the lataatand British notes, which arrived in Moscow during bis absence. ugust Peiping promptly supported bisugust.

The Khrushchev trip was first rumored to be scheduled In early July, prior to the Middle East crisis and during the height of bloc attacks on Tito, and It Is clear that one of the laportant reasons for Kbrusbchev's visit waa the need to discuss tstrabloc Included In theware Boris Poaoaarev and Wang Chla-halaog. both leading apeciallata In bloc affairs. The communique agread that the fight againstermed tha most serious bloc problem at the moment, would continue. Tito's herealas wsra condemned, and attention was probably givaa to tbsof the future handling of the potentially divisiveof aomulka and Kadar.

The -mutual aaalstaoce" phaae of the conferencecentered on military, and perhaps scientific, Tbere was mo known participation by economic experts.

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW

7 August8

and Chinese sources have been dropping sordthat an earth satellitebe launched "in the near future' from China, and Peiping's spokesman have intensified their call for Chinesela nuclear, electronic, and missile fields.

ClUaesu c'oBmuQlst Moves

Prior to Khrushchev's visit. Peiping bad begunjet fighters to coastal bases opposite Taiwan and had beenew emphasis to its propaganda urglog theof Taiwan. The Slno-Suvlet chiefs and tbalr defense ministers almost certainlythe Taiwan quaatlon, but tbe communique contained ao reference to thia of aay other Par East issue, and Pelplog has drastically reduced Its propa-

be talks

ganda barragended. Polplng'a air moves along the coast appear to have beenrofessed concern that theNationalists are planningaction against the mainland and by the need to tighten coastal air defenses.

Peiping, with Moscow's knowledge, may have planned the air unit movements, hoping to provokw Chinese Nationalist reaction which would contribute to tbe atmosphere of crisis and demonstrate that Far Easternare proper subjectn for summit discussion along with other International Issues.

ChIneae Milltary Situation

MIG interceptors are at Swatow and Lungchl, previously unoccupied coastal airfields, and there are reports that Llen-cheng has been occupied also. The deployment to theseindicates that tbeare willing to incur some military risks to achieve their objectives) as thehave reportedly stated they would bomb these fields If thsy become The Communists may believe, particularly in view of the present situation In the Middle East, that the United

State* will restrain the

Despite the Chineseview that occupation of

tbese fieldsirectthreat to Taiwan, tbs move is apparently being

undertaken ostensibly forreasons. Ho bombers seem to be involved, and tbe deployment falls into aof actions taken recently to deny tbe sir space over tbe Cblaeee mainland to tbe These have included tbe addition of osw Soviet helght-flndlng radsr to the ground intercept system andD)'s to the fighter squadrons, as well as aof sir defense Tbe recent lacreaae In the number of Nationalist planes shot down Indicates the success of these efforts.

Other sir activitythe flight ofegiment ofs Into Theee flights, however, may be part of aormsl training exercises.

The Nationalists aresir patrols over the strait with protective high cover sod with instructions to svold engagement. However, tbe aggressiveness of Chineset air patrols conducted against dally Nationalistflights since thsof the coastal air-fislds may load to clashes by forces of squadron strength. An sir battle on this scale could develop Into an engagementolvlmg Taiwan sir space,either side so Intending.

There has been no evidence of large-scale troop movements in East Chios, althoughfrom Korea continue. Two srmlss have returned to China and two are now in the process of returning. Tbe ground forces opposite tbeIslsnds have sot been ootlceably augmented. Motroops are needed,to tske the Hatsu Islsnds nesr Foochow.where thealresdywo-to-ooe superiority. Attack against lbs Quemoys. near Amoy on ths

other band, wouldroop build-up as theforces there are about equal to the Communists. Tbe recently completed Tlngtau-Amoy railroad couldapid, and perhaps undetected. Communist build-up In this area.

The Coswjualnts could try to take tbe offshore Islands by means short of an outright They have the capability of Interdicting Nationalistlines by sir snd see sttsck sod by shore-bssed artillery and rocket fire. They also could undertake to proboand Nations list intentionsnited attack against the lesser Islands, Tstso or Krbtsn. An ssssult against Taiwan proper seems highlyat tblm time because of tbe presence of tbe Seventh Fleet, the shortage of Communist landing craft, sod insufficient supply build-ups in mainland port areas.

There la thus littlethat the Communists Intend to initiate any major hostile action at the preaefit time, but the possibility of Increased

sir clashes makes the situation volatile.

Chinese Nationalist Position

At preacol. there are no positive Indications tbat the Chinese Nationalists Intend to take preventive air action against the Communlst-occupled airfields. However,

a high-level conference dealing wltb this

subject was held on 5 Augustecision Is expectedugust. The conference was called by Chiang Kai-shek to decide whether to attack or to liveituation in which Communist air superiority would extend over the offshoreand the entire Taiwan Strait.

Prior to learning of tha occupation of Lungehi airfield, the field close to Quemoy. Chiang Kai-shek stated he would continue to honor his treaty commitment* to the United States, which require consultationordering sir sttacks against mainland targets. Chiang also teraedof thegreat threat" andrelude to sn Invasion of Taiwan Chlaog probably would st least Inform United States officials of hie intentions and seek the tacit approval of Washington before ordering air attacks.

Althougb genuinely the Nationalists are

also exploiting; tha situation to obtain store Anerlcan sras. Chiang already has requested provision of Sidewinder air-to-air missiles for his air force, replacement of aircraft withhow of force by tbe US Seventh Fleat, and permanent stationingOOD's on Taiwan. Minister of Defense Yu Ta-wel has requestedSmoot to transmit to Presidentequest for the President toublic statement to the that he would consider an attack on Quemoy or msteu at this time to be a threat to

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