SITUATION IN IRAQ
for and againstwith the UAR are continuing to compete for influence ln Baghdad, with Prime Minister Qaslm tending toore pronounced antiunion position in the face of UAR-inspired agitation. The threat of open clashesarge scalethe two sides may have been avoided by the arrest of former Deputy Premier Arlf, who
returned unexpectedly to Baghdad from Viennaovember. Arlf, who earlier had asked and been refused official permission to drop his assignment as Iraqi ambassador to West Germany and return to Iraq, Is scheduled for trial on charges of plotting against the state.
Arlf's arrival followeday the departure of UAR
3 of 8
Minister of Culture llusayn, whoee visit was made tbafor demonstrations by pro-and aoti-UAR groups which ln some cases were accompanied by violence. During the clashea, the police stood aside, and the intervention of the armyto favor the anti-UAR demonstrators, who werelargely organized byelements. OARcalled this situation to the attention of Qasim and pressed himtatement of his attitude toward union with the UAR, but were put off.
Those developments are leading UAR officials into the conclusion that the trend in Iraq is against any close association with Cairo, and they tend to attribute this to Communist Influence. Tha UAR military attache" reportedovember, for example,roup around Kamileftist and one of Qaslm'a
principal civilian advisers, had decided to drop tho slogan of "federal union" with tho UAR and wished instead to work to detach Syria from the union with Egypt. The attachethat "Communists" would soon begin to agitate ln Syria toward this end.
The UAR has beenpro-UAR elementsto the extent of promoting agitation among Junior army officers who feel they are not adequately represented ln the regime, but Cairo appearsbow to handle thepublicly. Cairo propaganda media have not commented on the news of Arif's arrest, and Nasir may wish to remain silent on this evidence of Iraqito tbe expansion of his influence. Baghdad, too, probably does not wish any open break, partly because it is still relying on tbe UAR'a military strength for defense.Original document.