QUARTERLY ESTIMATE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC JANUARY-MARCH

Created: 5/4/1959

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT m THE SINC-SOVIET 3LCC9

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and Reports

INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

Tniicon ulna classified infometion arTecting miecurity ol lha United State* Mthin :ne meaning of the oipionaga iawi. US Cooewlaai 7M. 7W. and 7B8 The tawienimlasion c; the revelation el ;l* contents In any manner to an untuthorlted parson, as veil as Its use In any manner prejudieel to the salrty or Interwt of the United States or lor tha benefit ol any foreign government to the detriment of th- United ttatH

top 0core3-.

CENTS

1- Trends in

2. Production in Ihe

J. Production in thc European Satellites

Appendix

Source References . <

Tables

Production ol Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet

Bloc, by Number,5 Through 'he First Quarter

9

Production of Aircraft tn thc Sino-Soviet

Bloc, by5 Through the First Quarter

of

5- Estimated Production of Aircraft in thc USSR, by

5 Through the First Quarter9 . 1

Estimated Production of Aircraft in the5 Through thc First Quarter9

5. Estimated Cumulative Production oi Selected Aircraft

in the USSR. Through the First Quarter9 .

5. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number,5

Through the First Quarter9

Military Aircraft Acceptances, by5

Through the First Quarter9 5

Production of Aircraft in the European

Satellites and In Communist China, by5

Through the First Quarter9

stimated Production of Aircraft in thc European Satellites and ir. Communist China, by5 Through (he

First Quarter9

0. Estim^w; Production of Aircraft in the

Sino-Soviet Bloc, "ay Number in Selected

Plants, as of the First Quarter9 .

Folio wing Page

Figure 1. US and USSR: Production of Military

Aircraft, by Number,5

the First Quarter ofCover

Figure 2. US and USSR: Production of Military

Aircraft, by5

ine First Quarter9 Cover

- vi -

trtr .ircnrT

RTE SLY ESTIMATE OF PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN* THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC9

'" Trtndarod-jctlon.

tkm most roui aspect of production of aircraft in thsduring the first quarter9 continues to he the probableof production of known heavy and mediumhe USSR.of the Bisoneavy Jet bomber le believed to beMoscow/Fill Airframe Flam No. The Bearbomber is estimated to have been produced only in small quen-with production probably ceasing In0 or

Cf the three Soviet airframe plants which have produced the Badger (Tu-lfi) medium Jet bomber, only one Is believed still to be involved with the program. Production at thle remaining plant, Kuybyahev Air-irame Plant No.s estimated to be phasing out and probably will cease entirely during the second quarter Although at least one new type of bomber, the Bounder, is known to have been developedhe USSR, as yet there is no firm evidence to clarify just what types of aircraft may replace the Bison and Badger in series production at Moscow/Fill Airframe Plantasan' Airframe Plantnd Kuybyahev Airframe Plant No. 1. Production of the Badger at

The estimates and conclusions In this publication represent the bee: Judgment of this Office as

Estimated production of aircraft In the Sino-Sovtet Bloc5 through the first quarter9 Is given by number In Table I, p.elow, and by airframe weight in Tableelow, production of aircraft la the USSRS through the first quarter9 Is given by number in Tableelow. and by airframe weight In Tableelow. For comparative purposes.ilitary acceptance fig-ares5 through the first quarter9 are given by number la Table a.elow, and by airframe weight In Table.elow. For additional comparison,of combat aircraft in the USSR5 through the first quarterompared with that In tho US by number in Figurenside back cover, and by airframe weight In Figurenside back cover.

For deecrlptlons and illustrations of all Soviet aircraft mentionedhis publication, see the Characteristics and Performance lisndbook, VSSR Aircraft issued inI by the Assletant Chief ofntelligence and the Office of Naval Intelligence. US Navy. SECRET. Supplementary updating sheets have been added to this handbook. Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet aircraft,the Badger, through the firet quarter9 is given In Tableelow. Estimates of monthly, quarterly, andproduction at selected plants in the Slno-Sovie: Bloc are given inelow.

Voronezh Airframe Plant No.as been replaced with that of the Catour-engine turboprop transport.

hen theight jet bomber was phased out of production in Soviet airframe plants. no light jetntered series production in the Slno-Soviet Bloc. of two possible replacements for the Beagle, the Backfin and the Slowjamp. have appearedut there still is no firm evidence to Suggest tha: either of these aircraft is In production.

During the pas: several years, increased emphasis haa been placed by the USSR on the development and production of new turbojet andtransport aircraft. After several delays noted in the initiation of series production of some of the new transports and in spile ofreports of flight difficulties encountered with at least two of the aircraft types, aeries production of some of the models now is well under way. Although Czechoslovakia and East Germany continue to produce thewin-engine piston transport, seriesof this aircraft in the USSR ceased by It is probable that production of the Crate in Eaat Germany will be phased out In

Although five Soviet airframe planta are believed to be involved with production of new types of jet fighter aircraft, the output from these plania has been low, Three years after the initial display of most o( these lighters, none can be identified firmly aa being inaervice. Jn view of the information currently available onsties, however, it ia probable that some of the newer fighters designed by A. I. Mlkoyan and P. O. Sukhoy aoon should be appearing tr, operation. Production of fighter aircraft in the European Satellites and in Communis: China continues to be confined to the older Frescond Farmeret fighters.

I. Production in the USSR.

a. Bombers.

The complete phase-out of production of the Bisonomber at Moscow/Fill Airframe Plant No.ay have fee**during the firat quarter On thc basisof the plant area during the past quarter, it Is estimatedaircraft were completedanuary, none in February, and one Aaumulative production of the Bison isto beircraft.

* For serially numbered source references, see thc Appendix.

Although six Bison aircraft were sighted On the plant airfield Onit is believed that these aircraft represented an accumulation of production of aeveral montha. No Blaon aircraft are knownave left the plant airfield8 and Four of the heavy bombera are believed to have been flown away from the plant between9 andhe length of lime these four aircraft remained on the ramp before being

flowno ISO day*. Thia extremely longto be another indication that production of the Biaor.

at Maieaw/rfli Airframe Plant No. a being phased out.

No new information concerning the Bounder aircraftlighted a: Moscow/Fill Airframe Plant No.aa become evail-able during the firat quarter

there haa been no sign of Bounder aircraft at the plant aince8 and that there appeara to be little activity la the im-mediata area where the Bounder originally waa aighted.

la apite of the recent increaeed ooerational activity ofturbopropIt atill la be-

lieved thai production of thla aircraft ceased inb or? Onlyoviet airframe plant ever ha* been involved with thisKuybyehev Airframe Plant It ahould be noted thatew delivery flights atill are being recordedybyshev toong Range Air Force fLRAFJ base equipped with Bear and Badger aircraft, it ia impossible la identify the apeeiftt type of aircraft involved. Because the bulk of evidence suggests that Pear aircraft were produced only in limited quantities and bee-livety flights of high-performance aircraft from Kuybyehev to Vxinl Chepelevka could aa easily have involved deliveries of fladger aircraft from Kuybyehev Airframe Plam No. I. its considered probable that procuction of the Bear ceased aome time ago.

Production of the Badger medium jel bomber in Sonetplantselieved virtually to have Stopped. Of the three plants which have produced Badger aircraft, enly Kuybyshe* Airframe Plantossibly still la continuing this production. The Kuybyshev plant ia estimated to have begun phasing out this production in the springnd produetion probably wUl ceaee entirely during the second quarter9 if. indeed, it has not ceased already. Delivery Qlghis of possible Badger aircraft from Kuybyshev to operational units continue to be veryh only one Badgeroted Inne la/ and cone Inimitedof the plant airfield on9 revealed .ever, or more Badger/Camel) aircraft tails. 4/ Tha condition* of the aightmg and the tentative nature of the aircraft identificationany firm eonelueione. In m- of the recent low number offlights,reat many more aircraft ahould have been aighted on the airfieldhe plant were not phaaing out production of (he Badger. *

Estimated cumulative production of the Badger a: Kaaan' Airframe Plant No.aa been changed from approximatelyircraft to* of the end of production In6

. With this change, estimated cumulative produetion of the Badger at all three Soviet* of the first quarterecomesircraft.

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Kazan' Airframeo.: been seen by Western observers tor.irm Information is available which might clarity current activity ai the plant. The estimatedo! production of the Badger at this facility is based largely or. the reduced number of delivery and test flights of possible Badger aircraft from Kazan'. Only two probable delivery flights from this location have been noted during the firet quarter/ and both of these flights were in January.

With the probable phasing out of production of both knownand medium bombers in Soviet airframe plants, the questionand future activities at these plants becomes of paramount The intelligence currently available on this subject is After the forthcoming May Day Air Show at Tuehino, itthat the future of bomber aircraft In Soviet planning, andairframe production sites, will become clear. Although theaircraft originally was Sighted at Moscow/Fili Airframehere has been no Information to prove that if the aircraftfor series production, it will be at this facility. Theresome Indications that Kazan' Airframe "Plant. may bethe development and possibly! with future productionew here have beenircraft from Kazan'. The future role of the airframecomplex formed by Kuybyshev Airframe Plantsnd No.remains obscure. It ie probable that the latter plant wasthe development of the Cleatournengine turboprop transthe construction, whether by modification of existing Bearby new construction, of the- If thes to beas is claimed by the USSR. Kuybyshev Airframe Plant No.ikely Site for this production. I: is not knownAirframe Plant No.ill aid Its neighboring plan: withof the Cleat, will be utilizedime as an overhaul orsite fcr Badger aircraft, or will engage in scries productionnew aircraft as yet unobserved by Westerners-

b. Transports.

After some delays, production of new turboprop transports designed by O- K. Antonov and S. I. D'yuehln appears to be well under way in Soviet airframe plants. Moscow Airframe Plant No. sto haveeak rate of production of six Coot (II-IS) four.engine turboprop transports per month In& and to

haveiircrafl S" of 1 Apr*' 1PS9

Although several sources have reported that problems in stability have been.enoooscened.wi.th theoujr"engine turbopropransport, production of this transport at Voronezh.wi^-ii oncars to be

a minimum of

of these aircraft had been produced at Voronezh before / Twelve Cat aircraft were sighted on the airfield of the Voronezh plant/ and several Cat aircraft recently were sighted on various occasions on the civil airfield at Kiev.

The production Status of theelieved to be theof the Cel. at Irkutsk Airframe Plant No. J9 is morefirst air-

craft fitted withurooprop engine had undergone engine trials and that engine trials of the second aircraft were starting. 8/ otal ofircraf' center eections are known to have been produced at Plant Ho.y / On the basis of the above information, there has been made an estimated production schedule, whichal of approximatelyircraft completed at Plant No. y Although at leastn*ircraft ars believed to have been delivered from the plant8 and

.ould mean iliacmay have been slowed down slightlyesult of necessaryications- it is more likely, however, thai these modificationslected only the length of lime before the aircraft can go into regular

A new Antonov-deslgned turboprop transport currently iso be in oroductlon at Tashkent Airframe Plant Analysis

suggests that the aircraft involved may be the Campwin-engine transport. Because, however, severalreports refer to the new aircraftour-engine transport, it still is not possible to identify tho new activity with certainty.

In the area of transport aircraft designed by A. N. Tupolev. production of the Camel) twin.-engine jet transport is believed to be continuing at bothirframe Plant No.nd Omsk Airframe Plant No.. Information regarding Plan: No. 1J5 is fairly current, but if must be admitted that such is not true for Plant No.. It is possible thatlant No.agigher rate than has been estimated and that production may have ceased by now. No change is being made In Ac current estimate,pending receipt of additional information. At least one o! the newer model of Came] aircraft, the, has been produced, and il is probable that production of the newer model will replace that of the. Another Tupolev-deeignod transport, the Cookerour-engine jet transport, may be entering series production at some ae yet unidentified Soviet airframe plant. Although it has appeared that this aircraft, which was firstears ago, was not destined for production, recent statements by Soviet officials suggest that il Still may be scheduled for scries production.

The estimate of seven Cleatrboprop transports completed at Kuybyshev Airframe Plant No. eryconclusion. As in the case of thc Cooker, recent statements ay

JOBnrr -

officials suggest thai series production ot theither la under way or Is planned lor the near future. Until confirmatorybecomes available, however, it ie estimated that two proto types of theircraft may have been completeduD transports may be in existence. It is possible that the latter actually represent modified Bear aircraft rather than new production of Tu-IMD mo dels.

c Fighters.

It is estimated [hat production of the Termeret 'bjjhttf is being phased out at Novosibirsk Airframe Plantnd that eerie* productionodified Fishpot jet fighter has started. Of the new type of jet. fights re which first were displayed at the Tushino Air Show Inwo, the swept-wlng Fitter and the deluding Fishpot. are believed to have been designed. Sukhoy. The Fitter is nowroduction at Komsomol'sk Airframe Plant No..

Because

it is most unlikely that an entirely new Sukhoy-deeIgned aircraft could have been developed since the initial appearances of the Fitter and -ie Fishpot. It is probable that the new production at Novosibirsk Airframe Plant No.nvolves tho Fishpot aircraft. Confirmation thai the air-craft probably has beea scheduled for series production in some Soviet airframe plant can be found In open-source literature. Inoviet publicatipnhotograph of the Fishpot and glowingly described the aircraftream realised. IT/

0. Other*.

A significant change inaatltnVed.productfon of ihe Houndelicopter has been incorporated in this publication. Analysis

suggestsinimum ofSCO Hounds had been produced at Kazan' Airframe Plant8

.. It is

estimated tentatively that cumulative production of the Hound had reachedircraft aa

Recent intelligence information indicates that tha USSR hasor Is preparing toroduction .of the Horseelicopter. This helicopter first waa sighted5 but apparently was not producedest series4ecause of technical difficulties. 5 through6 the Horse failed to appear in sizable quantities. ersion of the helicopter sighted lnrogreeeive development of the earlier model andevised tail configuration. Information available during the first quarte9 Indicates that the USSR is preparing to place the Horse inpaaaanger serviceseai eabin configuration. It it considered probable thatears of testing, the USSR Is introducing the Hone into scries production.

3. Production in the European Satellites.*

Several change* have been made in this publication from previous eattmaias of produetion of aircraft in Czechoslovakia. eevaluation of aightlnga and requirements for floorepace of tha Prague'VodochodyPlant indicates that production of the Fagot) jet fighter at this facility probably ceased Small number* of Fagotaubaequentiy obaerved ln tha plant area are believed to have been operational aircraft which had returned to the plant for repair. of ihe Midget) Jet trainer at the aame plant now islo have etarted innd probably currently is being phased out. Production of the Midget8 may be lower than estimated inasmuch.at. for several montha inoneiderably fewer Midget aircraftre aeer. in the plant area than normally would beif production had remained atircraft per month.

The flrat Farmeret fighter osse rved at the Prague/ V- doehody Airframe Plant In8 probably waa assembled from parts supplied by the USSR. The establishment of domesticof this aircraft la estimated to require somewhat moreear. The time requirement, coupled with the recent downward trend in the number of Midget aircraft obaerved In the plant area, euggeaie thatroduced Farmer aircraft will be aeen at Vodochody In the near future.

Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellites and InChin*5 through the firet qoarter9 la given byin Table. It. below, and by airframe weight in Table. ii,

below.

The other changes noted in the estimated production o: aircraft in Czechoslovakia are the resultegrouping of categories oftypes. The only aircraftisted in the piston trainer category is the Moosel). Other aircraft formerly listed under piston trainers no* are noted in the miscellaneous grouping a( other aircraft.

A major revision also has been made In the estimated production of jet fighter aircraft in Poland. This revision is the result of changes made in the estimated starting datee of production of both the Fagot and Frescoircraft at the Mielec Airframe Plant. Recent reports indicateew Jet fighter, oossiblv the '*t Mielec. i

because it is considered unlikelyodel char.ge-oeer would occur simultaneously in Poland and Czechoslovakia, it still is estimated that the Mielec Airframe Plant currently is involved with production ol Fresco aircraft.

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Table 9

Aircraft in the European Satellites and u

hrough tho First Quarter9

China, by

Found* of Ajrfrf

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> -iAircraftha Sino-Sovlet i'.. by Number in Selected Plants

as of the Firet Quarter9 (Continued)

(Contlnuod)

Of Aircraft

Turboprop (Cont1nued )

Aiitooov transport

Plant.

Tashkent Ho. Ci

I

Production

CUfaul stive Product lor.

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APPENDIX SOURCE REFERENCES

Evaluations, following Ihc classification entry arri designated" have thc following significance:

Source of

Doc- onfirmed by other sourc.

ompletely- Probably true

sually- Possibly true

airly- Doubtful

ot usually. Probably false

ot. Cannot be judged

annot be Judged

"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreignand organisations; copies or translations of such documentstaff officer; or information extracted from such documents by

a Staff officer, all of which may carry thc field evaluation'

Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the cited document; those designated "rr" are by the author of this No "rr" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document,

Original document.

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