MEMORANDUM
z AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
CIA/RR39
i- ,
twrial contains Information altgoUng' the NatoBai__Defense of thcUniWflSlatcs within tholaws,riDld-4M: Hi"cmoc-*cTflallon of which in^jflrz-aaanner unauthorized person is prohibited byTaV*.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
Thlo memorandum presents estlmuteu of agricultural production in the Sino-Soviet Sloe during the calendar6 and. In the case of livestock products, during the consumption year endingThe conclusions ore based on an anolyslB of veather and other factors, such as governmental policy and Inputs of capital and labor, vhlch affect agricultural production. Preliminary quantitative estimates of production of grain are Included, except for Communist China, but only qualitative data are available on other important crops end on 'the output of livestock products. The section on China Is mainly an appraisal of the claims by Chinese officials of successes inproduction This memorandum also assesses the probable supply of food In the Bloc-
Summary and Conclusions
1.
of Crops
Root and Forage Crops
Other Crops
and Livestock Products
B. Supplies of
II. European
of
Root and Forage
3- Other
and Livestock Products
of
III. Production of Crops In Communist8
Appendix
Source References
Tables'. .
Appraisal of Production of Crops and Live-
etock and Supply of Food per Capita In tbe Slno-Soviet
ompared
Production of Grain In the USSR and European
verage8
of Grains and Cotton in Cotacunist China,
Estimated)8
a. fields of Grain and Cotton in Ccmnunlst China In
nd In Japan and the US7 20
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN TIE SINO-SOVIET
Suiaaary and Coni-lii signs
otal agricultural production in the Slno-Soviet Blocsignificantly and probably reached the highest level in the history of the Bloc. Sizable increases in production of crops in the USSR and Communist China greatly overshadowed decreases in theatellites, particularly ln Albania, Bulgaria, and Rumania,.whereof livestock also decreased. In the USSR, production of grain8 was reported to be about one-third above the levelhich had been slightly above the average Co the other hand, estimated production of grain In the European Satelliteslthough only slightly below the average2 percent below the level In the southern Satellites alone, estimated production of grain8 wasercent below the level in production of crops, particularly grain, accounted for most of the total Increase in agricultural production in the Bloc.
The bumper harvest of grain In the USSR and Communist Chinaombined with state control of foreign trade as well as the domestic economy, creates the conditions necessary for "dumping." Although some increase ln sales of grain to the Free World is possible, the amount of ouch sales by tho USSR and China will tend to be limited by increased domestic requirements, by the desire to Increase rcoerves, and by the need to export grain to the European Satellites. In the northernCzechoslovakia, East Germany, and Polandtrade inproductsill be about equal to thatgricultural exports from the southern SatellitesAlbania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Rumaniare expected to decline substantially.
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandumthe best Judgment of this Office as Estimates of production are for crops planted in the fall7 awl the spring8 and harvested Bet Iron tea of production of animal products, of trade, and of supplies of food for consumption are for the8 throughin this memorandum-
Average agricultural production in this memorandum is annual average production7 through
The good harvests8 resulted primarily from favorable weather throughout most of the Sino-Sovlet Bloc, from an increase in the area planted to certain crops in the USSR and Communist China, and fromsuccess ln the use of farm labor and an Increase In thearea in China. Althougharge extent the result of favorable
weather, the successes In agricultural production probably will strengthen the clods of Soviet and Chinese leaders as to the soundness of their agricultural policies. Only in the southern European Satellites didweathereduction in the production of cropn
The good harvest in the USSR will insure on adequate supply of food during tbe consumptionnd should permit come improvement in the quality off Communiot Chins has obtained anyportion of the Increases claimed, the food situation will be improved theren the other hand, the European Satelliteshole will continue to be dependent on the USSR for supplies of food inorder to maintain current levels of consumption.
A comparison of estimated production of crops and livestock and the supply of food per capita In the Gioo-Soviet Blocithrevious yours Is shown In Table
I. USSR.
A. General.
Total agricultural production in the USSR8 reachedrecord level. Cool; rainy weather delayed spring seeding by on average of aboutoays, but the resulting moisture In the soil and generally favorable weather both in the traditional agricultural areas and in the new lands resulted In good yields perndood growth of grass on pastures.
Total sown area la the USSR8 was reported toillion hectares, an Increaseillion hectares compared Areaa planted to com, barley, oata, sugar beets,unflowers, and vegetables Increased com pared vith the area so plantedut areas planted to wheat, rye, flax, hemp, potatoes, and fodder crops decreased slightly.
B. Production of Crops.
1. Grain.
* ollows on p.* One hectare1 acres
Text continued on p. 6.
l-ft T-
According to the annual report on plan fulfillment, the Soviet production of grain8 totaled almost lUO aillion
Table 1
Preliminary Appraisal of Production of Crop* and Livestock and. Supply of Pood per Capita in the Sino-Soviet BlocomparedContinued)
European Satellites
Satellites
Satellite!
Coreasdlty
Period
East
USSR Slovakia Germany Poland Albania Bulgaria Hungary Rumania
China
-
cows
-
+
S.A.
products Meat
u -
Table 1
Preliminary Appraisal of Production of CropB andLivestock and Supply of Food per Capita .n the Sino-Soviet'BlocomparedC-j'* ontinued)
European Satellite!
Satellites
Satellites
^, Cxecho- ! East
Period' > USSR Slovakia German j
Livestock productb :
Communist
Poland Albania Bulgaria Hungary Rumania China
f which aboutillion tone were, cco-prised'of wheat andmillion orillion tons were comprised of cornj Includingears. _ Tho announcement of production of ,lAO million tonsis surprising. In fact, before production'figures werepreliminary analysis of the area sown:to grainj weather, andIndicated en estimateillionr betweenndercent less(thai that reportedplan fulfillment. Soviet press comments !on the grainletter months6 were less laudatory;than those usuallya bumper grain crop Is harvested.hetbe Central Committee, teaJthitdinov, 'stated;that the USSR wouldharveft of "not leasillionrila unusual for Soviet officials"to joakoonserva-
tive statement as late as the end of Augustarvest whosesise is claimed to be about ltO million turnip Moreover, harvesting difficulties occasioned by unfavorable weather were the subject! of articles In the Soviet press during the.season. The^crop was undoubtedly diminished by this unfavorable weather.
The areaillion hectares sown to grain -In.SSR8 exceeded the area sown7 but was not so large as the record areaillion hectares sown rea sown to bread grains (wheat and rye)ecreased "by !almost*illion hectares compared with thatut this, decline woe moreffset by increases in the area sown to other grains^ particularly the area planted to corn for grain.
On the basis of Information in the report on planofficials apparently arearvest of.aboutillion toillion tons of bread grainsubstantialover production6 Although the area-sown to bread grains8 exceeded the area sown6 by more than khectares, the Increase In production8 resulted primarily from the higher yields per hectare, made possiblearge extent by unusually, good weather.
'
* Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this memorandum. ** Other grains grown in the USSR Include barley, corn, oats, millet, buckwheat, pulses, rice, and miscellaneous grain mixtures.
The reported harvest of aboutill Ion toillion tons of other8 alsoubstantial increase over roduction7 hut was about.equal to or slightly less thanproduc-tlon Tho area planted to barley, oats, and corny It million hectares compared, and the area planted to the r'fiulntng grains declinedillion hectares during the come period. The unusually good weather8 was instrumental In
making the harvest of these grains reasonably comparable vith that in
2. Root androps.
Production of the major root and forage crops inxceeded that Production of sugar beetsurpassed the record harvest7 by more thanf rovorable weather and an increase ofercent in theto this crop.
Production of potatoeseportedboutercent less than that6ercent less
than boatelayed planting In the spring apparently keptpotatoes, about-average, .even though subsequent^weather.was Moreover, the urea planted to potatoesthan aft*
jetf' djenm
The.area devoted to forage crops in.theotalectaresfavored.the.,growth -of forage crops In lgSS^bowuver^andof feed increased, substantially overylllion-tona oreportedlyanOfillion tons compared with the same data?accountedillion tons of the totalillion tons Moreover,1 million tons of coarse fodder (includingillion ad-been prepared;ncreaseillion/tqns comparedcame.ef Other Crops.
.The
cipal source, of ^vegetable! oil; In.^theion hectareson. hectares over
production :Ofsub-
stantiallyhen^hcocrpp^was adverselydry.:weather. ,Production.pf-cottonhejsecpjid-(maln-source
ftJo os/ss ed* iiml* os' "v
The area planted to cotton lnUSSRwas^percent, illion tonsthat The total-areasomewhat Inoveyer, becOAise,ofe'a;rcductlonUn,to,flax, andT.*
Production of vegetables in the USSReportedmillion tons, emained at the level6 snd
asmuch as the area planted to vegetables also remained at about theofper hectare were equal to those
C- Livestock and Livestock
The emphasis given by Soviet officials in recent years to in-'vi creasing the numbers of livestock and the output of livestocknder Khrushchev's program for catching up with the US in. per capita of meat, milk, and butter* continued to show resultserds of livestock continued to Increase during the year. The increase in tbe numbers of livestock was smaller8 than7 because of the smaller supply of livestock feed at the beginningut this disadvantage was partially offset by the Increase in grass on pastures.'
According to data In the report on plan fulfillment, production of livestock products8 exceeded toutut the increaso in production vas small compared with increases por example, the
percentage Increases in production of meat and milk8 was only
about one-hulf as great as those The outlook for production, of livestock products in the first half9 is considerably brighter than it was for the first six monthsO because of theupply of feed crops. .-
I).
ew agricultural products are Important in Soviet foreignprincipally grain, sugar, and cotton. Soviet exports of flex recently Imvc assumed Importance because of their effect on Western markets.
The bumper harvest of grain In the USSRombined with/ state control of foreign trade as well as the domestic economy, provides the conditions required for "dumping." Thus the possibility exiGts of greatly increased exports from the USSR of agricultural products,wheat. On the other hand, increased domestic requirements under present programs, the desire to increase reserves, and the need to export increased quantities of grains to the European Satellites, will te:vl to limit the sales of grain to the Free World by the USSR.
* The nev Seven fearnnounced inention of this goal of catching up with the US in the outputproducts per capita. _ The goal for production of meatIs substantially less than the amount re<ruired to equalcapita in the US. On the other hand, the goal for productionIn considerably higher than necessary to equal production perthe
- 8
*
Soviet imports of sugar are expected to decline Inesult ofuccessive years of recordof sugar beets in the USSR.
:-
The USSRot exporter of cotton,arge share ofgoing to the European Satellites. In recent years, Sovietof cotton from Egypt and other underdeveloped countries ofEast have been Increased. This trend is likely to continuefavorable harvests of cotton in-several of these countrieslarge surpluses for which there iseady market inWest. - ' .
upplies of Pood, .
esult of the bumper harvest in the USSRheolly caloric intake per capita will remainelatively high vol during the consumption, probably near the level ofalories per'capita per day in the US. Cereals and pulses, vhlch now account for approximately two-thirds of the average doily caloric Intake, will continue to be the major staples* in the diet. The increases In the production and supply of such ouality foods as sugar and livestock products> .however, should improve the quality of the Soviet diet.The USSR does hot have the variety in the diet found In most other Industrial countries, but there Is no evidence'of. widespread disease resulting from dietary deficiencies.
II. European Satellites.
A. General.
Sctimatcd total production by agriculture in the Europeanwas less8 than inthe northernin Czechoslovakia Is gross agricultural productionave been about the same as Increases In* gross,EastPoland, owever, were insufficient tothe'decline in production in the southern Satellites Hungary, _ andof theannounced over-all* plans for agricultural productionheir'plans'.* In East Germany most goalehotut goals for livestockthan meat and'slaughter fats probably wereannounced by Albania and Rumaniu, but therobably was less than planned.
* Planned increases in gross agricultural production inwero as follows: 9 percent ;percent ercent; andercent.
sT
eather, was the principal factor that.determined tho levelproduction In Czechoslovakia and in thethe promising prospects following the late fallild winter were more or less offset by an unusually latehlch was followed Immediately byrought In Bulgaria throughout the summer,
but In Hungary and Rumania tbe. hot, dry weather, was not so severer and -did not last so long. ' -Throughout the Satellites the growth of grain sown In the-fallas retarded bomewhat, and planting of spring crops waseeks.'. In the northern Satellites, untimely summer rainsarticularly In Czechoslovakia and East Germanyharvesting operations, caused abnormal losses of grain, andthe maturing of some crops. The effect of weather on production of fodder crops also will influence production of livestock and the output of livestock products.:
Governmental policies in the various European Satelliteshavereater:effort: by farmers to increaseproductivity. Incentive programs8 included furtherin governmental-reater freedom in local planning of crops, increased' supplies.-of consumern Hungary and.-Poland, the*f-landThe somewhat-favorablef-thesetogether with tho increased use^ off ertilizera, machinery.nd various nev agrotechnlqucswere offset, however, by tbe effects of unfavorable weather, shifts in the area planted to certain crops, and the program for collectivization.
B. Production of Crops.
.*
1. Grain.
ivtf
* ollows on
Estimated average production of grain in the USSR and the Buropean Satelee1 *md' production8 mre nhovn In able Total production of grain In the European Satellites8 is estimated atillion tons, about the came as the averagendercent less than production in the good crophis reduction resultedubstantial decline In production in the southern Satellites. Although the late spring adversely affected grainn all tbe Satellites, the two periods of hot, dry weather in the southern Satellitesevastating effect, particularly on grain planted in the spring. In the northern Satellites, production of grain8 almost equaled that7 and exceeded the averageyercent. In the southern Satellites, on the other hand.
. Table 2
Eotimated Production of Grain in the USSR and Europeanverage8
Thousand Metric Tons
Table 2
Estimated Production of Brain In the USSR and European Satellitesverage9 (Continued)
'/ "
Ti Including grain sown ln the fall7 and the springS and harvested
in, ,
and
barley, oats, corn, millet, buckwheat, and other miscellaneousgrain mixtures.
rice. , average annual production of rice wasons; Albania, insignificant quantities;ons; and8 the USSR producedof rice; Albania, insignificant' quantities;0 tons;tons; and0 tons. In this .'table,.rice is included withjonly in the data for the USSR'. jt.v*
and oats -
estimated production of groin was onlyercent of that1ercent of the average- East Germany was the onlytolight increase in production of grain Except for East Germany, yields of grain were lower thanspecially in the southern Satellites. -Only minor shifts occurred in the area sown to grain throughout the Satellites.
8 the estimated harvest of bread grains throughoutSatellites was slightly more than the average In northern Satellites, estimated production of bread grains wasmore than-the averagend almost equal to the I" the southern Satellites, however, estimated production7 percent less thanear, average andercent less Damage by the drought In the southern Satellites andthe northern Satelliteu at harvest time probably reducedquality of storedread grains sown-in tho spring,-'or only a, small portion of the total, were more severelyby the drought than were:thosc sown in the- .t, '. ictst<i ft-fijR
rsuc,Estimated production^ of, all coarse grains throughout the European SatellitesOercent,less.than the average. andercent less,than In the northern Satellites, production.of coarse, grains,8 exceeded the averageercent but about equaled that On the other hand, theradition/illy the. principal pr ere among the-SatelL's^^auffcrcd^at,severe,,setbackroduced, lessroduction orhe southernn
i-Se
ccnpsio-jincreased
percent.cfThe- total, area, aewn, to -coarse grains not he.'are creased- lnj Bulgurla>and-ilhingaryast; Germany, .and-.Rumtuiia,nHexo
mljadtrs aew
e.'" ,beets and Satellites sd.,to sugar evidence
Root and forageinvi
tit-fnuo otf>
xiaaTotal:>productlon^of Jheimajor jrpot,ndiof pthar rootelusedj as -foddeoJ.cIn>thc northern}Satellites, ;'
beets was expanded In spite of the late spring, wyy>
each country was abouthe.sugar
that yields were somevhat lees8 thano that the crop mumrprobably was
stimated0ent; andpercent.vB^Jc;;ij
slightly loss than that of the crop lnhen production of sugarabove average. Thus production of sugar-in the northernrobably declinedn the southern Satellitesresultedmaller sugar beet crop, although the areaexpanded slightly. It is unlikely that, the slight increaso Inof the crop in the southern Satellites^ compensated for-.theproduction, and thus production of sugar in the southern Betel-probably vas less than that ln"Production"of fodderarc grown primarily in the northernasecause of reductions in both the planted area and-the zeste stcft
.c vitf al VWi ni
Potatoes were planted later ln the spring,becauseunfavorable weather. esult, the' supply of-early potatoes was-,and some temporary local shortagesTheof potatoes in the Satellites8 was less than that' This reduction was only alight in> Poland, but" amounted: topercent in Eastbout l8 percent;In Czechoslovakia^percent ln Rumania, and aboutercent in Albania. Because ofspring, plans for planting potatoes were not"fulfilled Inand, except for Hungary and Poland,'some- reduction Inarea occurred. Although'yields in Poland-Were about equalhey were somewhat less ln the other Satellites. Lit"q cfel .ni
Forage crops (alfalfa,'clover, grain and vetchilage mixtures, and meadow grasses) fared much better'in.the northern'" than in the southern.Satellites. Pastures ih the northern Satellites'v. provlded an abundance of feed following the'late?spring;andxtended period of mild weather Inithough'the quality'-of feed wan impaired by rain at the time' of Cutting}*rtheref was- aplarger. supply of feed for livestock in the northern8r. he southern Satellites,nd -meadows', were'it adequate, comparednd some supplemental feeding of hay and/ concentrates probably was necessary. Also, except in Hungary,lon of hay and other forage crops was substantially below thathich was above average. In Albania and Rumania, supplies of feed were limited but apparently sufficient to carry the livestock through the winter on reduced rations. In Bulgaria, which suffered the sharpest reduction of feed crops among the Satelliteshere appeared to be Inadequate supplies of feed to carry the livestock satisfactorily through the winter.
3- Other' Crops.
In the northern Satellites, the principal oilseed produced is rape. In Poland and Bast Germany, production of rope declinedslightlyainly becauseeduction in the area planted, 1
- Ik
but In Czechoslovakia an Increase ofercent In the area planted resultedlightly larger harvest Production of flax and hemp van about equal to the average crop In the southern Satellites, except for Hungary, production of fibers and oilseeds, chiefly sunflower seed, probably was below uveraga. Production ofand fibers (flax and hemp) in Hungary8 about equaled thatn Increase ln the area sown compensated for lower yields.
The late spring reduced the crop of earlythe Satellites. In the northern Satellites, however,crop of late vegetables increased the total harvest Ofo about the levelhen an average crop wasIn Bulgaria, where an increase in the planted area andresultedrop about equal to the good onevegetables in the southern Satellites was somewhat,leas One favorable result of the late spring vas theof the blossoming of fruit trees until after killinga result, the northern Satellites, having an abundance ofone of the best crops of fruit since World War II,apples andomparedhe crop-of fruit.was 8 in the southern
C. Livestock and LiVcPtock Products.
-Total numbers-of-livestock in the European Satelliteo probably decreased There were,llghtcincreases .in tho numbers of several;typcs"of livestock Id vorloun. Satellites>jas follows: cuttle and milk cows, hogs, sheep, and horses in Hungary*'; sheep and cattle In East Qermany; cattle In Czechoslovakia; and mlorses in Poland."* The shortage of feed in most of theajor factor-Influencing, production 'of Tllvestbclcdurlng the year. Becausecarcity of feedxcess lve slaughtering of livestock: and may continue In theTirst quarterThe?ireduction in0 number of hogs In Polajxl and C'/.cchonlovakl aGennanyndicates little Improvement ?in supplies, of feed-nad also ski some adjustments In animal breeding.:Incrcaoec. ln the number ofove -in'Poland and'Hungary have resultcdlmalnlylfxom-'Chsngesrinental-'policiesrevocation of delivery .quotasyoV'oo' milk, end more freedom at the farmn planning ^production.
,hp ^tf"tor ^eP^however, the number,of.livestockvbssinot,regained3
erYnrtrJ thceepite.gc^ernnJnt 2
efforts to increase certain categoriesivestock, EspeciallymnL^l
See Table.bove.
. r
. . Pi'Oductlon of meat, mcut products, and slaughter fats In the consumptiona expected to be slightly in excess of that. In most of the Europeanigherof livestock may be slaughtered- In theatellites, production of meat is expected to be about equal to that, In spite of slightly fever animals. Because of feverIn Albania and Rumania, less production of meat and slaughter fats is expected In those countries than Inrevious years. In Hungary, however, output of livestock products under the accelerated program for livestock Is expected to be greater than thatn regard to meat and slaughter fats, although smaller than. Production of meat in Bulgaria probably will increase because of the likelihood of forced slaughtering resulting from shortages of feed. Production of poultry and eggo In all the Satellites Is expected to be greaterhan Inrevious years.
Output of dairy products also is expected to Increasend may be the largest In the European Satelliteshole since World War II, even though output Is expected to be below average in Albania and Rumania. Shortages of feed In some southern Satellites may curtail production of milk in the first quarter
Production of wool In the European Satellitenhole was estimated to be less8 than Inrevious years, in spite of small increases In the number of cheep In East Germany and Hungary. Output of other animal products from domestic sources, especially bides and skins. Is expected to be about equal to that.
rade.
Patterns of trade in agricultural ccmmoditlesn European Satellites are not expected to vary appreciably fromprevious years, but some changes ore expected to occur in thetrade. Traditional imports of agricultural commoditiesincreauc, whereas exports are expected to
ments for Imports of grainhroughout the Satellitesarc somewhat less than those, when between U5 million tons werenorthern Satellites, tradi-
tionally the major Importers of grain in the Satellites, again willlarge quantities of grain. Bulgaria, Hungary, end Rumania, normally exporters of grain, may be deficit areasungary already has contracted for the Importationons of grain from tho USSR. _ Bulgaria und Rumania probably will not be able to fulfill export commitments of grain negotiated early8 and may be forced to import mall quantities. Imports of grain by Alboulu are expected to be about the name as.
-'T
- Czechoslovakia and East Germany, vhlch traditionallyquantities of livestock"products (meat, slaughter fats,other milkre expected to Import slightly largerof these productshanhe Increaseonly slight In East'Germany because efforts are being made toof theseofrom Poland and'the
southerne-largerhan Inmeat'lo on excellent source of-foreign exchange' and- huoexport. Exports of meat by Bulgariawill be increased somewhat if-excessive slaughtering of :
f " yfWrii.'
Requirements for Imports of vegetable oilseeds andby the northern Sate Hi ten will Increaseecausehigh demand for-these products and some reduction indomestic crop ofxports of oilseeds from thewill decline, becausemaller crop inv'--
-ci-San-
Exports ofajor export of the northern Satellites,to remain at about tbe same levelsons are 'estimated to have been exported. In theImports of sugar into Rumania and Albania arc expectedat about "the level. but such imports intowill be less because of sorce^carry-over stocks from theyear. Bulgaria, vhlch haset exporter ofears, is/not expected to have an exportable supply'*
E. Supplies of good,
jpuZIu iflpii
Except In Hungary, supplies per capita of basic foodnotatoes, meat, fats and oils) derived from domestic production In the: southern Satellites'.will be significantly lessh/ur'in therevious years. The decline in the supply of food'in Albania;i'y-gsrla, and Rumania is more significant because of the likelihoodroportionately larger reduction In qualityocal shortages of -food may occur before the harvest inbecause efforts will be made to fulfill current export commitments and because customary Imports offoods are not expected to offset the decline In domestic production of those foods- The supply of food per capita from domestic production in Hungary will be considerably greater than in the other southernbut may not be so great on. Because of expected im- orts, hovever, supplies of food per capitahould be about the ssme as. Carry-over stocks of sugar should be sufficient to compensate for expected reduced imports of sugar, and the supply of dairy products for consumption is expected to exceed that; but tbe Increase expected In output of other anlm-ileat and meat products, probably vlll be exported.
Supplies of. foodIn', thc northernwill be about'equal:to.those^^
larger quantities off hlsher:quallty;aretfor consumption, than.in the .pastes years-.the customary.basic foods-into Because of recent governmentalit is not expected that (centralbecause of: the; larger-crop here the average.-dailylsupply.ofln East'Germany, little change' frcmavailable for consumption is expected inof food in these countries already is at alevel, modifications in-thefaced consumption of foods of highernot occur inecauac-ctfattached"to exports of"-quality'foods,csiich;.as:*livestock In Czechoslovakia, :increased. imports of basicstocks of some foods, such as sugar, should bolsterproduction of foods and thus maintain supplies, per'-caplta^atlevel. ore'varied diet'should behe northern Satellites because of the good crop of vegetablesunusually good crop-of--
c-yal rfati ct-e
III. Production" of Crops In Connunist
,
There arc indications that harvests in Communist China reachedlevelslthough it is extremely doubtful thatthe levels claimed. Reportedrain is more than double the figure Reportedly the. cotton crop8 amountedtons (ginnedn increaseercentillion. tons produced Claimedcotton8 is canpared with estimated production3.* Tubers and rice; account for the largest share, of-thegrain The increased production of tubers .and riceto reports that the Chinese arc shifting fromto these high-yielding
* ollows on
The big agricultural advance claimed by the Chinese Coonunlsts8 reportedly was made without the use of many tractors or largemounts of chemical fertilizer but has been based mainly "on theand creativeness of the peasants, and on water conservancy, natural manures, deep plowing, soil improvement, the popularization of selected seed, close planting, pest and disease control, carefulof the land, and tool
table 3
production of grains and cotton in communist7 (estimated)8 (claimed)
8
r. metric
b/
j/
takers
other6v
h/
oinned1/
gj
Although BUTficlent supplementary Information le- hot-o make reliable estimateo of production of agriculturalhere ia abundant evidence to support the jcontcntion that Chineoe Communist claims for production of agricultural [commoditiesre-groeslyumber of reasons for not acceptingti claimb are Included in the information which follows A :
Productionillion tons of grain8 would havethe average yield ofuintals perchievedirtual Impossibility in light of the measures, claimed toutilized. The yields required to achieve the claimed productioncrops8 are compared with the yields attained7 inChina, Japan, and the US, in Table h. ^
Table 4
Yields of Grain and Cotton ln Communist China'- jjnd In Japan and the US7
Calculated from information on area andquintal
In Chinese statistics, tubers are included as grain at thc ratioons of tuberson of grain. Tubers Include Irish potutoe5 and sweet potatoes.
Although climatic conditions from the fallhrough,8 fluctuated considerably, the over-all .effect,of weather,of crops was favorable. The winter wheat crop infrees thc severe drought, which occurred fron the time oftho fall7 to the beginning of the rainy season in Aprilin the main wheat-producing provinces of Hopeh, Hbnan,and Shantung. This drought probablypercent decrease in the area sown to wheat In general, rainfall beginning ln April andmost of the spring and summer appeared to be adequate, for theoa .ft rikfrg
A relatively small increase ln production of grain probably, resulted from on increase In the area sown The area reportedly sown to grain8illionn increase ofllr;lion hectares, orpercent more than that .The estlmar. ted total cultivated8 wasercent.more, than that reportednd therefore the Increase in the area "BownVto grain'.', most probably resulted from an expansion of double
Apparently thereremendous amount of.labor expended lnand water conservancy in the countryside and in thend application of organic fertilizers and other,soil-building materials. Some additional improvements may have resulted from the use of Improved, seed, closer planting, and thc application of new techniques. .
According to recent reports the irrigated area inillion hectares in6 millioninn increase ofillion hectares,,is claimed that irrigation and water conservancy,
resulted in the saving ofillion toillion tons.of grainand flooding lntraveling through China
* Including land sown to Irish potatoes and sweet potatoes, which in Chinese statistics are included as grain at the ratioons of potatoeson of grain.
** Land planted to crops; does not include double cropping.
have been very much Impressed with the extent of irrigation works/and the mass of organized labor seen working on such projects. In many formerly dry areas, water was seen stored ln ponds and roservolrs. There lo little doubt that the effort devoted to irrigation and water conservancy8 enabled the Chinese to expand their irrigated area significantly. It is questionable, however, whether the Irrigated area could be expanded byercentear by means of local small-scale projects. Furthermore, the degree of permanency of these projects is questionable because most of the dams were constructed of mud and dirt.
Claimed applicationsons of organic fertilizer*ere sold to be about double thoseormalla
doubtful that Increased applications of organic fertilizer voiuaany substantial Increases in yields. Por centuries, Chinesehave depended on this type of fertilizer to maintain thethe soil. The quality of this fertilizer in terms of plantIs low, and heavy applications usually are necessary toyields. erman authority who recentlyour of Chinese mainland stated that the campaign for the collection ofmaterials In the winterad not been an In spite of Chinese Communist claims that collections-indouble thoseormal year in terms of nitrogenuch smallerobservation substan-
tiates statements by other visitors that some crops show obviousdeficiencies throughout the'agricultural areas ofsupply of chemical fertilizer has not been sufficiem. to the supplies of organic material to the extent necessarysignificantly; The total amount of chemicalto agricultureas been estimated at0 tons, onillion tons7 butbelow estimated requirements.
* mj%- .
Claims by the Chinese Communists of increases in agriculturalore not borne out by observations by recent visitors to China. Although favorable weather In the latter port of the year, together with the tremendous expenditure of labor In tbe countryside, undoubtedlyagricultural production, most of the claims seem grossly These claims appear to be based on gene rail rat ions drawn'larly favorable results attained on experimental plots. estern
, well qualified to appraise agricultural conditions,important farm areas of China in September. He reports thatimmense quantity of labor that the Chinese are putting intoto increase agricultural production is extremely impressivebrought about sizableobserved nothing,
* Mostly in the form of river and pond mud, which undoubtedly has great variations in organic content. '
however, that would substantiate the over-all claims for agriculture by the Chinese. He also noted that many of the innovations in form technlquea being applied to omull experimental plots were impractical and were designed primarily to dramatize to the peas onto the potential roductivity of the land. esult, competition between experimental units was keen, and the increases in yield obtained on the small plots apparently are being Interpretedation-wide achievement. The source also observed that some of the techniques being emphasized by the authorities, euch as deep plowing, close planting, und intercropping, have become fetiches and apparently are carried out without scientific
planning. Indeed, some of the technique* being advocated, whenmay even have hairnful effect* on the future fertility of;soil: * 1 i. vj:
agricultural advisory team, vhlch returned from Communist
eported no indications of the fantastic yields of rice now claimed by the Chinese. ' Chinese official claimsuintals of rice per hectare Inare almost equal to theuintals per hectare attained by Japan ' Yields of rice In Japan, vhlch averaged around ko quintals per hecvore in, "ere obtained primarily through much heavier applications of chemical nitrogenous fertilizers than were applied in China. As earlyapan applied an averageg of chemical fertilizer per luictarc of planted area. In China as lute6 the rote was onlyg per hectare. ' ' There has been no significant Increase in the supply of chemical iwtilizcr In China ' The observers were Impressed with the progress In the cultivation or rice mode by the Chinese during the past few years but consider that China still is greatly inferior, to Japan in the cultivation of rice. '
The claims for agriculture8 by the Chinese Comsunisthave not been substantiated by anyincreases inof food or In the procurement of food crops by the state. for collection of grain from the crop harvested0 wasupward from Wt million tons toillion tons ofindicated lncreanc7 is only U3 percent, com-
paredLaimcd increase of more0 percent ingrain. As ofnly about KQ million too*been procured. * * The government found it necessary todirectives cooling for accelerated procurement in order todeliveries of agricultural products to the state in ' Reports from Peking in8 statedtheonths theren vide fluctuations Inof foodstuffs throughout China and that shortages ofhod occurred in Peking and In other large towns andrecent'reports state that rations of flour have been
reduced to the lowest level since foodtAL rationedU and that cabbage was rationed Tor the iirut timeThese two staples are among the most important foods of North China. Furthermore, the effects of the new rations wre not counterbalanced by Increases in the distribution of other food!.. Previously, it had been thought that food was being rationed8eans of getting people In the cities to Join communes; but this no longer uppcaro to be the case, because the Central Committee of the Communist Partydecided to postpone the establishment of people's cemmunes inities.
-vr
Although come disruption inthe procurement of crops may heto transportation tlcup8,and delayed harvesting, nolarge stores of grain have been observed by people traveling throughnasmuch as China has always been short of adequate facilities for storage ofrophe, magnitude claimed by the Communists vould hardly go
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following the classification entry and designated tval., have the following significance:
of Ir-fomatlon
ocumentary
ompletely reliable
Usually reliable
Fairly reliable
Not usually reliable
Not reliable
Cannot be Judged
Information
Confirmed by other sources
Probably true
Possibly true
Doubtful
Probably false
Cannot be Judged
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this Ho RR' evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document.
All sources are evaluatednless otherwise indicated.
Information on weather conditions in the Sino-Soviet Bloc was furnished by the Post Weather Analysis Division, Climatic Center Detachmentir Weather Service, US Air Force.
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Brit, Warsaw. Polish fevr. Bulletin,
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Die dcutsche Imndwlrtflchaft, Berlin. Series of monthly reports
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37-
Daily Report (USSR and East1
. HH 9.
Stute, Prague. Dsp,, li. 2.
Stata/Gt Brit, Sofia. Bulgarian Press Summary,
p. 5> U. Eval. RRtate, Budapest. Dap lfA, l8
State/Gt Brit, Budapest. Hungarian Press. 2. U.
Pic dcutsche, above).
Stnte/Gt Brit, Warsaw. Polish Hews
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Bulgaria Today, volo fc,R
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p. KK 1. . Eval. RR 3.
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Si.ate/Gt Brit, Prague. Czechoslovakia Press Review,. U.3. 5- tate, Prague. ,., 2fc. tate, Bonn. Dsp JO, U.
FBIS, East Oernuin Press Scrutiny Report, U. State/Gt Brit, Budapest. Hungarian Press Summary,. 2. U.
State, Budapest. ,ep
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State/Gt Brit, Bucharest. Human Ian Press Review, U.
Dally Report,ul, above).
State/Gt Brit, Prague. cl>oslovaklan Press Review,,
,. 5- euen Deutschland. l6erlin. U. State, Bonn. Dsp,tate, Budapest. , above).
44.
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FBIS. Dally Report,ul, above).
State, Prague. . 3.
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State, Bonn. Dsp, above).
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State/Gt Brit, Budapest! HunKarian Economic Hews Suroary,
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Uie deutscfae,tate, Bona. Dsp, above).
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State/Gt Brit, Budapest. Hungarian Press. 8. U. Eval. RR 3.
State/Gt Brit, Budapest. Hungarian Economic Hews Summary,. I. U.
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State, Budapeot. 3tate, Warsaw. 9
FBIS, Dally,l Brit, BBC. Survey of World Broadcasts,, above).
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'(6. - FBIS, Dully Report (USSR and East8.
State/Gt Brlt, Prague. CzechoolovuXlaJi Press Review,
,. 7- U. Statisticke zpravy, no. 7. U.
StaUstli,chru Juhrbuch. U. StatisztihM (Havi) Kozleir.envek"no
PBIS, Dnlly Report,ct,Uite/Gt Brlt, Budapest. Hungar'nii Press Summary,. 2. U.
Stute/Gt Brit, Warsaw. Polish News Bulletin,
U. Eval. RRumania. Anuarul Statistic al- U. Eval.- Ibid. ho. Ibid.
Statistisclie, above).
Biuletyn stntyntycgny,eries ol' nonthly U. Eval. HH 3. Statisticke zpravy, no U. Die Wirtcchaft. Berlin, U.
State/Gt Brit, Budapest. Hungarian Press U.
HIS Ik, Poland, sec-. UN. Economic Survey of Europehap VI,
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State, Budapest. ,
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53- State/Gt Brit, Budapest. Hungarian Pressep
State/Gt Brit, Budapest. Hungarian Economic Hews Summary,I. O.
FBTS. Dailv, above).
55- State, Hong Kong. ,. 2. Communist China, Hsinhua News Agency. Rpt, U.
uailv Report (Par- BBS 3.
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59- FBIS, Daily Report (Far. BBB 3-
Hong Kong. 1 U.
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Brit, BBC. Summary of World Broadcasts. Economic Supplement
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Brit, BBC. Summary of World Broadcasts, Economic Supplement
no 3hQ,ct 5B, p. lU. U.
Daily Report (Far5. BBB
69- Communist China, Hsinhua News Agency. Rpt no ko,
n. kO. U.
FBIS, Dally Report (Far5. BBB 9-
State, Hong Kong. Survey of China Mainland
. U. U.
70.
71- sp
73-
Dally Report (For0. lii. 7-
75- UN, FAO. Konthly Bulletin of EconomicH ond Statistics.
u.
76 FDD SummaryO,eekly
Daily, above).
Jih-pao. Peking,. 2. U. Eval. RR 3-
Hong Kong. , C.
Dally Report (Far1. BBB 6.
Dally Report (For3' DDD 2-
Eval. RR 1.
-
E=r-
Original document.
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