NIE19
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
NUMBER
SOVIET SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
by the DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELUGENCEowing intelligence organizations participated in lhe yreyaration of this estimate The Central InteUigence Agency and the Intelligence organizations ol the Deportment, a/ State, the Army, the Havy. Ihe tir Force. Tha Joint Staff, and the Atomic Energy Commission.
Concurred tn by the UNITED STATES INTKLLIGENCE BOARD onuly tth% Concurring were the Director ofand Research. Deportment of State; the Assistant Chief of Staff tor Intelligence. Department of the Army; the Assist, nnt Chief of naval Operations for Intelligence. Department of the Homy; the Assistant Chief of Stag, InttUtgence, USAT: the IMreetoe for InteOlgence. The Joint Staff; the Atomic Inerg, Commission Representatnw to the USIB; the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense. Special Operalions; and the Director of the National Securtly Agency.istant Director. Federal Bureau of Investigation, attained, the subject being outside of hU furisdlctton
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TABIC OF CONTENTS
I'age
THE 1
j.
I ADMINISTRATIVE FACTORS AFFECTING SOVIET SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Attitude of tlic
Policy. Organization, and
II SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL RESOURCES
Financial
Research Facilities and
Educational
Exploitation of Non-Bloc.
Utilization of Satellite and Chinese
Science and Technology as Instruments of Soviet
III. PRESENT CAPABILITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS IN SOVIET SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Physics and
Geophysics and
Metallurgy
Medical, Biological, and Agricultural
Nuclear
Guided Missile and Space
Other Weapons Development
Industrial
APPENDIX A: PRESENT AND LONG RANGE OUTLOOK IN SCIENTIFIC FIELDS
Physical
Medical
Biological
Soviet Research Affecting
Page
APPENDIX U: PRESENT AND FUTURE CAPABILITIES INRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
Nuclear
Guided Missiles and Space
AcKniaiHic.il Research and
Naval Research and
Ground Weapons and Equipment Research and Development.
Chemical and Biological
Miliury Electronics
Human
APPENDIX C: INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY
Fishing
Chemical
Industrial Fermentation
Building
Solid 36
Petroleum and Natural
Electric
Basic Manufacturing
Aircraft
38
Electronic38
Machinery and
Automation nnd
Transport
Transportation
Construction
Telecommunications
APPENDIX D: SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL MANPOWER
SOVIET SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
THE PROBLEM
To assess the current situation and probable future developments in Soviet science and technology during the nextears.
Thc Soviet regime will continue to place great stress on scientific andprogress as basic to the growth of ils military, economic, and political power. The regime is allocating aand increasing part of theproduct to the Soviet scientific and technological effort which is focusedon the buildingtrongbase and the development of modern military power. As athe USSR's achievements inareas of critical military andsignificance are comparable to andew cases exceed those of the US. We believe that over-all the West stilla scientific lead, but this lead will be increasingly threatened during the period of this estimate, )
uring the past three decades, thc USSR hasolid foundation forntiflc advance. The more spectacular Soviet achievements to date have resulted primarily from the concentrationew high priority programs However, the USSR now has the capa-
bility and apparently the intentionuch broader front The rate at which scientific and technicalare increasing will permit some greater attention in thc future togoods fields, and perhapsincreased technical aid programs abroad. Tlie current Seven-Year Plan, which relies heavily on scientific and technological achievements, probably will leadonsiderable increase in thescientific effort affecting alldisciplines.)
3 Significant Soviet advances in science and technology are likely to occur with greater frequency than in the past, and we believe that over the next decade the USSR may achieve world leadership in an increasing number of scientific areas. By concentrating effort and resources, the USSR may alsoumber of "firsts" in certain prestige fields such as direct conversion of heat to electricity, manned exploration of space, andthermonuclear reactions. In ad-
dilion to tlieir economic and militarya series of such spectacular successes would have great psychological and political eflect throughout the world which would undoubtedly be used by the USSR tolaim to worldsupremacy. )
lie number of scientific and technical graduates in the USSR has increasedthreefold In the postwar period, and is now significantly larger than that in the US. However, wethat the over-all capability ofscientific-technical professionalis still inferior lo that of the US. Soviet numerical superiority resultsfrom the large numbers ofand agricultural experts; the US leads in numbers of physical andscientists. The USSR makesuse of scientific-technicalfor tasks which would be handled by nontechnical graduates or even non-graduates in thc US. The work of the best Soviet scientists isar with that of leading Western scientists, andtraining in the USSR has steadily improved. However, the majority ofprofessionals have less experience than their Western counterparts. US graduations in scientific and technical fields arc expected to increase, but lhc USSR almost certainly will continue toumerical superiority. On the basis of current trends,4 the USSR would have about one-third moreof scientific and technical curricula than the US. At that Ume, the quality of the Soviet scientific-technicalforce probably will be generally comparable to that of thc US. Sovietsuperiority will continue tofrom the large number of graduates
in engineering and the agricultural , and Appendix D)
5hc Soviet leaders havemajor reorganizations ofeducation, agriculture, and science. In science, the major changes to date involve an administrative and geographic decentralization directed toward greater emphasis on practical results of research, closer ties between science andimproved planning andof the entire Soviet research effort, improvement in the eflectiveness and timeliness of technological innovation, and increased support for regionaldevelopment. We believe that generally the reorganization of science will produce the results desired by the Soviet leaders. Thc educational reforms chiefly concern primary-secondaryand provide that almost all Soviet children of secondary school age arc to have some work experience. The reforms on this level appear to be designed to better prepare the majority of Soviet youths for jobs in industry andand should result in anin the quality of Soviet workers. The requirement for work experience in higher education probably will improve training in engineering and applied It mayetarding, but not very serious, efiect on studies in pure science. )
oviet capabilities in the basic sciences are generally good, particularly in the theoretical aspects Soviet science shows particular strength in physics,and the geophysical sciences, and it is in these fields that major Sovietare most likely to occur. The USSR generally lags behind the West in chemistry, biology, agricultural sciences.
ir
some aspects of medical research. However, we believe that by the end of the period of this estimate. Sovietin chemistry will be eliminated tn most important fields, and Sovietresearch and clinical medicine will be raisedevel approaching Western standards Due to increased officialresearch in the biological andsciences is also expected to im-piove appreciably.and Appendix A)
1 Thc USSR is continuing its strongon military weapons research and development. Recent tests have revealed further advances in Soviet nuclearin meeting diversifiedrequirements. The high priority accorded to the Soviet missile and space programs has assured the availability of capable personnel, high quality research and development facilities, and strong suppori from associated fields. Werapid advances in the Soviet missile and space programs including the achievement of manned space flight within the next few years Development of ground, air, and naval weaponsalthough lack of sufficientfacilities has hampereddevelopment to some extent and may conlinuc lo do so in thc future. Soviet electronics research and development has been outstanding, and notable advances
in military electronics will continue. The USSR has comprehensive chemical and biological warfare research programs, and future research piobably willnew and unproved agents, means for dissemination, and equipment for defense.nd Appendix B)
oviet industry is characterized by marked qualitative unevenness inpractices between industrial sectors and even within certain sectors generally well developed. In heavysuch as steel making, industrial techniques, and equipment often compare favorably with those used-in Western practice. However, industrial practices generally are behind those of Ihe West and often are crude by Western Industrial applications oftechniques appear to be limitedew experimental Installations, but such techniques probably will be introduced widely in many sectors of the economy over thc nexlears. Wc believe that the USSR will make Important advances in the average level of its industrialduring the nextears in spite of the effort and resources being devoted to this task, the magnitude of the problem is so great that Soviettechnology will remain generally behind lhat of the West during thc period of this estimate. ndC)
DISCUSSION
ADMINISTRATIVE FACTORS AFFECTING SOVIET SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Allitode of lhe Regime
9 The Soviet regime has for many years placed great stress on scientific andprogress as basic to the growth of Its
military, economic, and political power Sne-
goals and the means of their achievement are carefully planned, and progress is closely monitored by the central authorities. Although someshare of the scientific andefforts has been devoted to raising the
f living In recent years, by (ar the major part continues lo be directed primarily io the building uptrong industrial base and the development of modern weapons
The regime hastl increasing part of the national product to lhc strengthening of science and technology. Ovci the last three decades, research facilities have been greatly expanded, the quality of Soviet scientific training has been improved, and the number of graduates in scienlific and technical subjects has constantly increased, hi terms of social position and financial status. Soviet scientistslass have longone ot the privileged groups in the fSSR. However, under Stalin. Sovietlike all other elements in Soviet society, were subjected to increasingly rigid andcontrols and Ideological interference whichtultifying effect in certain fields.
In the general relaxation which followed the death of Stalin, relations between the scientific community and the regimeand political and Ideologicaldiminished markedly. In contrast to the extreme Insularity of the Stalin regime, the Soviet leadersolicy offoreign achievement and encouraging maximum use of foreign experience. Including contact* and exchanges between Soviet and foreign scientists.
More recently, official -criticism of Soviet scientists for their "isolation from life"that the attitude of the regime Is now being modified somewhat. There arcthat greater emphasis is being placed upon application of the results of scientific research and even that pay scales for scientific research may be more directly related toresults. Trofun Lysenko. thebiologist who apparently epitomizes Khrushchev's ideal of the "practicalas been returned to official favor. Party con-
* trol of science appears to be tightening.despite the check In the post-Stalin trend loward liberalization, there will probably noteturn lo the extreme interference which characterized the late Stalin period.
Policy. Organization, ond Planning
inceoviet leaders haveir.ajmreorganizations ol industiy,agriculture, and science which appear to be motivated by both political and economic reasons. Politically, these changes point to tlse shifting ol functions away Mom thebureaucracy toother organs, theof thc Parly's dominant role; and the reduction of the influence of other elite groups in Soviet society. Allhough these measures areeep Ideological coloration, they are also justified on the grounds of greater efficiency and increased productivity and thus related to the ambitious Seven-Year Plan In science, the major changes have involved an administrative and geographicalwhich, apart from political aims. Isdirectedrcaier emphasis on practical results of research, closer ties between science and technology, improvement in the effectiveness and timeliness of innovation, Improved coordination among research facilities, and increasedfor regional economic development. We believe that generally the reorganization will produce the results desired by the Soviet leaders
cademy oj Sciences. Thc Academy of Sciences, which is directly responsible to the Council of Ministers, remains the mostscientific body in the USSR. The Academy's membership,orresponding Members,the nation's most eminent scientists Through itsepartments the Academy of Sciences controlscientificand there are associated academies with affiliated institutions Inf lhenion Republics. This entire complex employsoercent of all scientists In the USSR. The Academy emphasizes theoretical research, and Its scientists carry out more than half of all fundamental research done in the USSR This emphasis probably will continue, but Academy institutes are expected to providescienlific support to applied research institutes.
Although the Academy ol Sciences still dominates scientific research in therend toward decentralization of thc Academy has been underway since the formation of (hc Siberian Department Inteps are being taken to relocate some personnel of the Academy, now concentrated in the Moscow unci Leningrad areas, by transferring them to new institutions in widely disposed areas The new constitution of the Academy,ineflects an administrative decentralization aimed at reducing theexercised by the Presidium within the Academy In favor of Ihe General Assembly, the Departments, and the local institutes
Higher Educational Institutions. Nearly Italf of all Soviet scientists are employed in the universities, technical Institutes, andinstitutes These institutions and their scientists are not subordinated to the Academy, but fall under the conlrol of the Ministry ofghcr and Secondary Specialized Education. In thc higher educationalscie.illsts arc concerned primarily with teaching, and have devotedless time to research than those in the academics and thc research Institutes.6 directors of research In higherinstitutions have been given greaterauthority, and research Is being increased to provide more scientific andsupport for regional economic programs. It has been announced thatell-equipped laboratories are being established in theeducational research Institutes to carry out interdisciplinary research on selected problems in radio chemistry, nuclear physics, electronics, transistors, computers, and other areas.
ther Research Institutes.ercent ol Soviet scientists work forwhich arc attached neither to the Academy nor to the institutions of higher learning. Until the economic reorganizationost of these institutes wereto All-Union and Union-Republic Ministries, and worked primarily on applied research in support of the Industrial, military. or other functions of each ministry. With the abolition of many of thehe research Institutes for-
merly under their control were transferred to the control of governmental organs on the national. lepublic. regional, and local levelsosl of the indusliial research institutes were resubordmatod lo the new regionalcouncilsnstitutes which are engaged in icscarch andprograms of naUonal significance are under the conlrol of Stale Committees forTechnology, Aviation Technology, Radio-Electronics, Automation and MachineShipbuilding, and Chemistry. Central research institutes In certain basic Industrial fields, such as steel, have been placed under the conlrol of the Slate Planning Committeeumber of researcharc still controlled by the remaining ministries. Including the Ministry of Medium Machine Building, which controls ail defense-connected atomic energy research, lheol Health, and the Ministry ofGenerally. It appears thatcontrol over institutions conducting high-pnorlty research remains centralized, while administration of lower priority research has been decentralized.
urrent plans to increase the number of scientific institutions reflect the trend toward geographic decentraIllation. Two newcenters, which will be subordinated to the Academy's Siberian Department, are now being constructed in Novosibirsk and Irkutsk The Novosibirsk center, plannedill haveew researchthe Irkutsk center, which is scheduled for completionill have eight.is also underway or planned in aof olher ciUes. Plans for an expansion of the Academy system call forew scientific institutions in branches of the Academy of Sciences USSRn the republicduring the Seven-Year Planajor effort Is being exerted to attractscientific personnel to the new centers by creating favorable living conditions,excellent research facilities, and assigning certain eminent scientists to these locations. Initially Uie drain on manpower and resources from Uie older centers willaffect some research programs ad-
onG run, however, thc in-creased number o( scientific institutions, dls-iriUulcdider aiea. probably willm -in improved scientific andcapability.
hc regime is also attempting to improve planning and coordination of the total Soviet iciearch effort. In the past, the USSR has demonstrated its capability to plan centrally and carry out successful programs In high-priority fields such as atomic energy, guided missiles, and elect ionics However. In fields of lesser priority, planning and coordination generally has been complicated by the large size and diversity of the total scientific eltort and by administrative compartmentallzatlon. Willi the reorganization ihere has been some improvement on the top level, at least In the formulation of long-range and nationwide scientific policies and goals. In connection with thc Seven-Year Flan, the Academy of Sciences, the Ministry of Higher Education, and lhe Stale Scientific-Technical Committee for theime jointlyocument defining "major directions" of scientificAt Its annual meeting Inhe Academy of Sciences proposed newfor planning and coordination of re-scaich. Determination of the most important scientific problems are to be made by five new interagency committees for different areas of science and technology. According to these proposals, basic problems are to be handled by "scientific councils" which will coordinate research work regardless of where that work is done.
ew of these councils already exist, bui their useuch wider scale was proposed in9 by v. A. Klrlllin. head of the Central Committee's Section for Science. Higher Educational Institutions, and Schools. Kirlllln envisageduch councils each linking several dozen research institutes, laboratories, and higher educationalengaged In the same relatively narrow field of research. The council would be based at one of these facilities which would fulfill the functionsead Institute, and would consist of representatives from the member Institutions, from industry, and possibly from
"other inletcsledheof additional scientific councils has also been endorsedopchiyev. viceof the Academy. However, thc future composition and number of such councils is not yet clear.
nhe parly's Centralcalled for additional steps designed to "raise the role of science in technical progress, improve the organization of research andwork, and step up the introduction of scientifichese measures were explicitly related to fulfillment of the Seven-Year Plan. In the courseuch publicized plenum on problems ofnnd mechanization In Industry, thcCommittee issued several decreesimplementation by appropriate organs Including. In most cases, thc sovnarkhoti/. The measures .included: strengthening of scientific support -to the sovnaTkhozy; expansion of research work at the sovnarkhoiu and local levels, improvement of supplies of equipment and materials at all research facilities; Improvement ln thcof research and experimental work; and an acceleration In the pace ofinnovation. lans are lo be prepared for the establishment of more research institutes at plants, the transfer of certain industrial research institutes to higher educational Institutions, and theof scientific councils Also within six months, new estimates of future requirements for specialists wllh higher education arc to be submitted together with plans fortlie training of such specialists The setting of deadlines, the unusualsurrounding the convocation of the Central Committee plenum, and Khrushchev's speech before the plenum are Indicativeounting concern within the party centered upon Increasing the scientific contribution to technological advancement.
CIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAl RESOURCES Finoneiol Support
urrent Soviet expenditures for research mid development are estimated to be at least
It
SOVIET EXPENDITURES FOR RESEARCH AND
TOT
EX
-
-*
TO!
Al
"Tha bvccated cart of these outlays Is part of tha brother anocation fo? socUlursl activities; MM fuTvds not fromm resources of afturpftsat. Most o( tnesa fuMs are PuCfete4.'
SECRET
i
3 level These expenditures represent about two and one-naif percent of the USSR's Cross National pioduct (GNP) which Is roughly lhe same ihaie expended by the US : Allhough the -tic of the Soviel icseaich and development ,iTorl. in absolute terms, is smaller thanhe US, we believe it to be larger In real :t'i ins than the GNP relationship would Imply. The Soviet effort has been far more highly concentrated on fields related to national power, while research In consumer products hat beenely much less. Wethat about two-Uiirds of lhe totaleffort Is (or military or related purposesonsequence, the USSR's achievements hi certain areas of critical military and In-dusltial significance are comparable lo,ome cases exceed those bl thc US.
ver the last few years, Sovietfor research and developmentlightly greater rale than the GNP The rate o( growth seems to have been liarticularly rapid during thescee believe that thc rate o( growth over the nexl five years probably will be somewhat lower than the current rale, but still appreciable In any event, past trends and announced Soviet plans give reason to believe lhal strong financial support willto be provided for lhe scientific and technical effort In the USSR and that Soviet expenditures probably will permit fullo( new personnel and facilities.
Approximately one-half of this amount laIn the Soviet Budget under the general allocation for social-cultural acUvlUta and labeled as being for -financing scienUflc researcht esUmate that an equal amount Is appropriated for "productwhich includes deslen and production en-Cineerlng. experimental production, letting,producUon,ariety of associated activities. Funds for these purposes are not expllclUy indicated, but are believed to come largely from the budgetary category for nninclng the naUonalc estimate Soviet ONI* lo be about AO percentNP.
Rcscorch Facilities and fqulpmenl
cientific research In the USSR is carried oul Incientific and technical The adequacy of these research facilities varies considerably. In general, the research related to defense and heavydevelopment receives lhe best facilities and equipmentriority basis, andew fields the USSR has facilities which are comparable. If not superior, to corresponding installations In the West. In priority areas of physics, for example, facilities are excellent andBEV proton synchrotron, currently the highest energy accelerator in operation in the world. The average Soviet laboratory is less well-equipped than theUS laboratory, but we believe lhatfacilities In thc USSR are generallyfor the effective utilization of Soviet scientific manpower.
hortages of research instrumentsto exist, particularly In low priority fields, but they probably do not significantly hamper research programs of major Although Soviet produced equipment Is often the equal of foreign-producedand occasionally its superior, the USSR will probably continue to import equipment over the nexl few years for reasons of At the same time, lhc USSR willto improve its own capabiliUes ininstrumentation. There Is evidenceumber of new instrument factories have been established or are planned, and aincrease in instrumentation research has been indicated by the recent appearanceumber of new. high-quality publications and the establishment of new institutes in this field. An increasing amount of Soviet scientific equipment will reflect native design concepts, and by lhe end of the period of this estimate we believe that Sovietand pioduction of scienlific equipment will be sufficient to meet their needs.
Edueotionol Institutions
he Soviet educational system, more than any other In the world, concentrates onscientists, technicians, and skilled labor. This emphasis will be Intensified by the edu-
is
reorganization now underway. Theyear schooloughly equivalent lo the USschool, but the averageyear school graduate is belter trained in science and mathematics lhan his USThe Soviet curriculum Is heavily weighted on llie side of science andwhich comprise more thanrcent of total course work in the upper grades. The curriculum was changed somewhato Include vocational subjects such as shop training, largely al tlie expense of courses in the humanities.
n addition to theyear school, the Soviet educational system includeslevels of special schools. At the lowest level are short-term factory and trade schools which develop labor skills At the next level arc tckhuikums. roughly comparable to lech-riical high schools in the US, which offerompetitive basis three or four years of specialised training lo students who have finished seven years of theyear program, and which offer two-year training on the Junior college levelyear school graduates. The tekhnlkumsital role in the training of technicians in almosi all occupational categories
Graduates ofyear schools areby competitive examination forto higher educational institutions.the past few years there have been many more applicants than vacancies in higherand standards of admission have been raised. Students are channeled into particular fields of study by various means such as propaganda, draft exemptions, quotas, and differential stipends. All graduates of higher educational Institutions must accept stale directed employmenteriod of three years following graduation.
There areigher educational institutions in the USSK. Of these, someniversitiesechnical institutesscientific and technical training that is roughly equivalent to that requiredachelor of Science degree in the US. Some scientific and technical training is alsoto sludents Inedagogical Soviet higher educational institu-
tions have a total ciuollincnl of ull'tirncnd about two-lliiids ol all Soviet graduates arc in scientific and technical field* The Institutes offer five to Six-year courses of study which are geared to lhe specific requueuieiitsarticular. mining, aviation! ell-defined vocation (eg. medicine,he universities ofter much broader training centeredajor fieldhysics, chemistry, mathematics) Courses of study last five years, and graduates may enter the teaching profession or become research scientists.
he standards of higher educationalset by the Ministry of Higher and Secondary Specialized Education, haveconsiderably over the pastears, and today, Soviet higher education inand technical fields is considered to be generally of good quality Soviet highercurricula differ from those in the US primarily inuch heavier load of scheduled hoursonger period of years. In certain fields such as agriculture, the quality of training appears to be below US standards, but In others, such as thccal sciences. Soviet standards appear equal lo thoseood US college The Ministry of Higher Education is currently engaged in reducing overspeclalization in engineering courses, and is encouraging schools to allow sludents more time for independent research and reading. Various new procedures, such as giving entrance preference to applicants who have had two years work experience, are designed to give more emphasis to practical training than in thc past. US educators now tend to evaluate the current Soviet graduates in science and engineering as equal. If not In some respects superior, to US graduates.
ducational Reforms. The reformsby Khrushchev ln8 and approved by thc party and government are planned for execution within the next three to five years. Basically the legislationhift awayystem ofeducation which emphasized college-preparatory trainingystem in which preparation for college is only one of several
CI I. T
Eight years ol lull-time schooling will be required, which may be followed by mice years of study In various types ofschools Under present plans, almost all children of secondary school age are to have some work ex'Krience. Thc great mass of the students either will attend the new -labor-poly technical schools" and receive jiarl-llinc Job training, or will go directly to work and coniinue their schooling in after-hours training. However, some students will continue full-time schooling al theor olher schools. Students in higher educational institutions will also be expected io work full-limeari of their en-lollmcnt period. Khrushchev's originalhave now been modified somewhat, .md additional changes probably will bein practice
oviet leaders have justified theof Soviet secondary schools onIdeological, and economic grounds. Among other things, the reforms appear lo be designed to better prepare the majority of Soviet youths for the jobs In Industry and agriculture which they will eventually hold Eventually, thc major economic effect of the educational reorganization will be aImprovement in the quality of Industrial and agricultural workers. Requiringand other students in applied science to work in the economy during part of their higher education, usually In fields related to Iheir study, Is likely to improve the quality of their training, which in lhe post has often been loo theoretical. Work requirements on students In pure science may prove toardship. Nevertheless, the requirements are to be less stringent in their cases, andwill probably find ways of assigning these students to academically useful work.
ostgraduate Training. Al thelevel,nstitutions areto conduct training leading lo the Kan-didat degree,f these acceptfor the higher degree of Doktor. Both of these degrees are conferred or confirmedpecial commission of the Ministry of Higher and Secondary Specialized Education The Kandidat degree requires at least three years of graduate study, two foreign lan-
guages,issertation. In thc physical sciences, engineering and Use health sciences, the quality of the Kandidat degree is roughly equivalent to or slightly below that of lhc USc. In the agricultural and some areas ol the biological sciences, it ts closer lo thatS Master's degree. The degree of Doktorualitative level beyond that o( thc Kandidat or Ph. D. range.
Mori power
he number ol scienlific and technical graduates in the USSR has increasedthteelold in the postwar period and is now significantly larger than that of the US. As ofhere arcmployed graduates of university-leveland technical curricula to the USSR, aboutercent mote than in the US. The USSR also lias nearlyercent more holders ol advanced scientific-tecImical degrees than thc US. The number of Soviet scientific technical graduates will continue to increaselthough US graduations are also expected to increase, the USSR almost certainly will continue toumerical advantage On the basis of current trends,4 the USSR would have about one-third more scientific and technical graduates than the US.
s indicated by the accompanying table. Soviet numerical superiority results primarily from the large numbers of engineers andscientists Soviet college graduates are less plentiful in thc physical sciences, the biological sciences, and medicine Sovietweakness In physical science is com-pensaled in large measure by the largeof engineers who in general have more training In the physical sciences and hold more advanced degrees than thetr USThe USSR has more physicians per capita than the US, but fewer personnel with higher education In auxiliary fieldsharmacy, dentistry, andhich In Uie USSR make wide use ofwith only secondary cducaUon.the same relative positions of Uie US and the USSR are expected to prevail through al4 allhough lhc Sovicl lead In engi-
V
10
and the US lead in physical andscientists arc expected to increase.
COMl'AKISON Or MAJOR SCIENTIFIC AND
TECHNICAL GROUPS. USSR AND USSiiimaU'd Numbers ol Employed Graduates ofand Technical Curricula fin thousands*'
I9C4
Science Physical Biological
.VcrflClHC1
Tec An ofOPV Engineering Agriculture
Totals
I9S9
USSR
numerical estimates provideough im'. for comparison since: (ai lhe |irolc*sional categories arc not precisely equivalent in the two countries; (bl Ihe figures do not reflect the broader US supply of scientific and technical personnel who hold no degrees: ic) they give no weajhl lo Qualitative differences In training and experience, and fdi practices In theof personnel differstimates ol the current total of Soviet scientific personnel art believed to be correct within plus or minusercent The probable trior ofgroups, however, may exceed this imount The figure lor US medical sciencesersons such as nurses, optometrists, and pharmacists who hold BS degrees, while alarger number of Soviet personnel are excluded because they are not graduates of higher educational Institutions
he numbers in the above table provide ai bestough basis (or comparison because of dala limitations in boih the US and thc USSR, greaUy differing educational requirements lor comparable duties In the iwo countries, and widely differing practices in utilization of personnel. In engineering and agriculture, for example, the Soviel Union makes extensive use of scientific-technicalmanpower for tasks which would be handled by nontechnical graduates or even nongraduates In the US. such as positions in
administration and management which in the US are filled by graduates of business or liberal
arts colleges, and positions as foremen or farm
managers which in the US are filled by people
without extensive college training.
he quality of Soviel scientific andprofessional manpower is generally good Thereew vety competent Sovietwith picievolultonaiy training, but lhe majority of older personnel, who received their training during the earhci years of the Soviet irgime. are considered qualitatively inferior to US professionals. Even persons tiamed under recent higher standards, who nowthe majority of Soviet scienlific-lechnica! manpower, lack the experience possessed by the generally older US professionals.in the USSR as in the West, scientific advances are madeew brilliantand the work of the best Soviet scientists is generally comparable to that of theircounterparts.
believe lhat the over-all capabilityscientific and technicalis still inferior to that of lheHowever, this inferiority willin some cases, disappear during theyears as the number of Soviet skilledand nonprofessionals Increases, asof Soviet training Improves, asSoviel personnel are replaced byprofessionals, and as thegraduates acquire more professionalAs qualitative differencesquantitative superiority will presentchallenge lo the West.
Manpotoer.Soviets have made considerabletraining the skilled technicians andneeded in modern science andthe USSR is not as well supplied withare Weslern countries where broaderof the population haveonsiderably longer period.of skilled technicians In thcwill persist at least In certainthe number available shouldesult of the high proportionand technical subjects in thethe increased vocational trainingsecondary level, and the emphasis ontraining after lower school.
Exploitation of Non-Blot Resources
he USSR has an outstanding program loi collection and dissemination of scientific and technical mfotuiaUoii. Thousands of fuirtB" publications inanguages fromunliics poui into the Soviet Union'jiilh. To deal with Hits flood of infoima-noii. the USSK has established the world's Uigcsl scientific and technical information cvntc-r, the All-Uniou Inslilute of Scientific and Technical Informationhis center now iccclvcsitles arrd0 loieign journals every month .md publishesbstractsScientific-technical committees which have been established in the Union Republics and technical information bureaus in aof thc soenarJcnoay are responsible for foi -lowing domestic and foreign developments and channeling the infoi matron toresearch oi industrial groups. As theof this large-scale effort. Soviet scientists in impot tant research centers now have access to almost all scientific developments reported ui unclassified Soviet and foreign language publications.
The Soviet information program forof foreign literature utilizesmanpow-er resourcesentralized system. The USSR ts now devotingefforts to mechanization of this program which should be aided by thc expandingof computer centers throughout the USSR Evidence of Soviet work on such new methods as machine Uanslalion. dataand data processing indicates that Soviet information handling facilities will improve significantly during this period.
fn addition lo lhe benefits derived from exploitation of open foreign sources, thehave also profiled from espionageew key fields. However, on an over-all basis, the performance of Soviet
* the number of original concepts andiour belief lhat the aggregate contribution of espionage to Soviet scientific progress has been far leas important than thc USSR's own achievements.
artly as the result of Western embargoes in thc postwar period, overt Soviel purchases Of Western technological developments have been largely confined lo lhe acquisition of sample items which the USSR hoped to copy or further develop- The USSR is nowto acquire Western breeding slock, seeds, prototypes of agricultural machinery, and technical Infoimationonew fields, such as the ferrous metals industry, llie USSR has also attempted to buy equipment in quantity, and even whole plants. Soviet efforts to purchase Western equipment in quantity are expected to beby the demands of the current Seven-Year Plan. Noting the need for large amounts of new equipment, Khrushchev has suited lhat It would be "expedient" to order pari ol this equipment from capitalist countries, primarily the US, the UK, and West Germany. Fulfillment of5 goals for plaslics.fibers, and synthetic rubber willin large measure on importation of equipment from the West. The USSRwill also attempt to purchase electronic and automation equipment, includingfor use in the chemical Industry,communicalions systems, digitaland specialized lest equipment.
Utiliiotion ol Satellite and Chinese Resources
he European Satellites, particularly East Germany and Czechoslovakia, haveignificant increment to lhe scientific and technical resources at the disposal of the USSR They are Increasing the number of higher educational Institutions and improving their quality, and6 contributed aboutercent of the Bloc's total of new college-level graduates In scientific and technical fields. The substantial Satellite support of Soviet technology has involved blueprints, production processes, technicians, equipment, and whole plants Contributions have varied considerably according to the level ot science and technology in the individual Satellite. East Germany Is strong in pharmaceuticals andptical equipment, andfibers, Czechoslovakia, in electronics and computers; and Poland, in radar,and medicine Hungary, whose scien-
i;'j-
12
eapabililies arc believed lo have been greatly impaired byG revolt, has made contributions in electronics andin lhe past and piobably will do soRumania, Bulgaria, and Albania have niovidcd little support.
jG In the past lew years, thc USSR has at-Uiuptcd to integrate Soviet and Satellite cf-lot Is in science and technology under thc Council (or Economic Mutual Assistancehere is evidence that national jealousies and CEMA's lack of authority lo discipline its members have impeded effective cooidination. However, new8 provide tot greaterand exchange in research andactivities. CEMA member-nations arc assigned major research, development, and production rcs])onsibilitics for the entireBloc In specified fields. Synthetic organic chemicals, railway transport equipment,machine tools, telecommunications, and food processing have been singled out as areas for contributions by the Satellites in the near future. Satellite scientific and technicalwill continue to grow and loto thc Soviet effort, but because of glowing Soviet capabilities, these resources win become less important to thc USSR.
China, because of anof scientific and technicalfacilities, is unlikely to maketo Bloc science for somenumber of Chinese graduates intechnical fields each year roughlygraduated by the EuropeanChina has made considerablein these fields, the number ofexceedingly low In view of China'sand needs. Furthermore, there isthat the quality of higherCommunist China is inferior to that inand the Satellites. We do notChina to achieve scientificwithin the nextears.
Science ond Technology os Instruments of Soviet Foreign Policy
achievements in science andhave greatly enhanced thc interna-
tional prestige ol the USSR. Thc launchings ol the earth satellites and thc moon rocket, in paihcul.it. have provided impressiveof the present high level of Sovietcapability, and these successes have been exploited by tremendous propaganda campaigns winch stressed lhe theme that the USSR was fast becoming the world's leading scientific power. These achievements have also served lo bolster Soviet claims ofin olher fields, particularly In weapons development This propaganda has beeneffective in underdeveloped areas, where Soviet scientific successes have been held out as proof of the superiority of the Communist system and its achievementsation which was itself underdeveloped someears ago.
he USSR has also undertaken technical assistance programs in underdevelopedof Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, which are ptlmary targets oftloc technical experts were present in underde /elopedfor one month or more8 Aboutercent ol these were working on economic development projects Militaryand technicians compriseercent. The USSR has offeredassistance to India forharmaceutical industry and Is aiding in the constructionteel mill. Soviet scientists and technicians arc also assisting localIn establishing technical educational institutes tn India and Burma, Irrigation, mapping, and hydroelectric power projects in Afghanistan,uclear physicslaboratory in.Egypt. The competence of Soviet personnel involved in these programs has been generallyigh order.
oreign Students in the USSR.0 foreign students are studying in Soviet higher educational institutions, the majority in scientific and technical fields. Most of these students are from nations of the Bloc, includingrom Communist China. Thc number of new students sent from Com-
'The Natuie of the Sino-Sovlct Bloc Economic Threat in the Underdeveloped
munlst China lias decreased sharply In Lhc lasl two years, (mm6 lo78 There are lesstudents (torn non Bloc nations,moretudents from the UAH and India. Egypt, Indonesia, andhave accepted Soviet scholarships (or the study ol atomic enetgy.here wereew students from the US. Western EuiO)>e. and Latin America enrolled in Soviet higher education Institutions
SI. Soviet participation in Internationalmeetings and conferences and inof scientific delegations has increased markedly during the past two years. The USSR was one of the largest contributors lo the International Geophysical Year (IGY) and is slill engagedorldwide program under lhe International Geophysical(IGC) Under tlic IGY and thc 1GC. the Soviets probably haveremendous amount of dala of strategic value. They haveonsiderable volume of general and operational Information on these activities, bul have withheld dala In fields such as gravity and geomagnetism which would be of direct military value to lhe West. Thc Increased Soviet participation Inscientific activities has. In general, enhanced Soviet scientific pieslige and has helped the USSR keep abreast of developments in thc West.
III. PRESENT CAPABILITIESTURE TRENDS IN SOVIET SCIENCE ANO lECH-NOIOGY
uring the past few years, the Soviet Union has strikingly demonstrated to the world its maturity in science and technology. This relatively rapid progress reflectspirit of intense competition with the US and thc controls and incentives applied by the regime The USSR is now one of the world leaders in some strategically important and technical fields such as nuclear energy, ballistic missiles, and electronics. However, we believe thai their capabilities in other Important areas are advancing more slowly, and thai Iheir technology is stillthat of the West. In our Judgment, this
Significant disparity from field to field largely resultsresent Soviet inability to carry out simultaneously al! the increasinglyresearch and development necessary for modern military weapons and industrial pro-giams with the same degree of success lhal the US is achieving.
53 During the past three decades, the USSR hasolid foundation for scienlificThe more spectacular Sovietto dale have resulted primarily from the concentration ot resouicesew high priority programs, however, the USSR now has the capability, and apparently theto advanceuch broader front. The current Seven-Year Plan, which relies heavily on scientific and technological achiev-merits, probably will leadonsiderable increase in the Soviet scientific effortall Important disciplines. Significantadvances in science and technology are likely to occur with greater frequency than in the past, and we believe that the USSR may achieve world leadership in manyareas by thc end of the period of this estimate
hysics and Mathematics. Soviet shows great strengthumber of fields of physics and mathematics,In theoretical mathematics, high energy nuclear physics, solid state physics, andThe competence ol Sovietand the excellent mathematicalof scientists and engineers hasajor Soviet strength for many years The USSR has placed greater reliance onmethods for solving engineeringthan on the empirical methods used in the West, and probably will place even greater emphasis on such methods In the future. In physics research, the present emphasis on nuclear physics and solid state physicswill continue, and major efforts will be devoted to problems related lo tlie nuclear power Industry. Soviet research towardthermonuclear reactions has been very impressive und could produce resultsimited scale at any time, although theof energy In useful amounts cannot be expectedong time. Research In
,|VStcs and mathematics will be malcrially iidrxl by the wider ovuilablliLy o( high-speed
.jlciilal'O"ilies which arc now available -or lilgh-prlortly problems Such facilitiese generally available to lhe research
development community by thc end of ine period
is Electronics The USSR is one of the lead-,n" nations of the world In quality and quan-ntv of electronics research and development Soviet work on radio wave propagation, noise phenomena, nonlinear conlrol theory, and lhe iheoiotical aspects of materials research has oeen outstanding Soviet research oneflccls appears lo be on the thresh-hold of technological advances in the direct conversion of heal lo electricity having far-reaching military ond economic application. Generally. Soviel electronics research will piobably continue to'emphasize theof equipment of military and economic importance and Instrumentation for other scientific investigations
eophysics and Geodesy. Sovietin geophysics and geodesy are believed to be generally equal to those of the US and superior in some fields, particularly polar Soviet work Is also outstanding in seismology, gravimetry, geomagnetism, geo-electricity, and gcochemlcal prospecting. The USSR is working towardorld geodetic datum which would be of great importance to Soviet long-range missile capabilities. They have alreadyinonnection bclween thc Soviet-Satellite geodetic net and theEuropean datum. overt lie to the North American datum, probably has also been made across the Bering Strait Also of strategic importance Is the tremendous amount of geophysical dala acquired by the USSR during the IGY. The Soviets area large program under IGC andwill make Increased efforts in the future to collect geophysical dataorldwide Tjasis. Emphasis In geophysics will continue to be placed on problems of great economic and military importance and upon support of the Soviet space program. Studies inwill probably receive high priority
foi such application as improvingand developing military detection Geodesy research piobably willlo be locuscd on improving geodetic positioning accuracy required for launching long-range missiles The Soviets haveIheir intention lo use earth satellites for establishing Intercontinental geodetic ties. Soviet research in weather control and long-range forecasting probably will be expanded Woik iu geology will continue lo be primarily directed toward developing mineral resources and aiding military and capital construction. By the end of the period, the USSR may haveosilion of world leadership infields of geophysics Includingand seismology.
emijfrji. The USSR generally lags behind the US In most fields of chemistry However. Soviet research Is of high caliber tn certain areas, and in organophosphorous chemistry, critical to the development of nerve gases, the USSR may lead the West by amargin Soviet research Inchemical kinetics, catalysis, andis generally comparable with that of the West, but the USSR lags inand in several important areas ofchemistry. There will probablyajor expansion of all chemical research In the USSR, with particular emphasis on ateas where the West now leads, such asplastics, and synthetic fibers. We believe ihat Soviel backwardness will beeliminated in most important fields of chemistry withinears
etallurgy. The Soviet program of metallurgical research is extensive, butdueoncentration of effort onthe requirements of industry and the military forces. Soviet research hason ferrous metallurgy, but lesshas been given to the Important light alloy field in which Weslern progress has been exploited through an extensiveeffort. This exploitation probably will conlinuc, although Soviet research is expected to make increasingly important contributions
SSR has ina<lc considerable progress in ihc developmenl of fissile and nonfissilefor use in nuclear weapons and re-triors, and continued emphasis is expected [his field Resentch piobably will alsohcd Iii those ami ol metallurgy related to .olid slate physics, particularly inrtm and mateuals for use in research on direct conversion of heat to electricity.
}'j Medical, Biological, and Agricultural xcicmces. Exceptew specific fields, the L'SSR still lags behind the US in lhe medicar, ii.ologicai. and agricultural sciences.cdicine. research assets have beenin areas of military and economic1 lance, such as infectious diseasesuse significant labor losses. However, soviet research In space medicine, underway about seven years, piobably leads thatthe US in several respects Although the Soviets appear to be fairly competent inareas of biological research, their general capabilities in basic work ate considered low biological research hat been accorded lower tiriority than most of the physical sciences and still suffers somewhat from the effects o: ideological interference Sovietral research Is also significantly behind that in most Western countries, despitearge research establishmentarge number of professional personnel.
oviet medical research and clinicalprobably will be raisedevelWestern standards byhe quality and quantity of research facilities and equipment. The Soviels will probablytheir research efforts on human space travel, submarine medicine, radiation effects, viral diseases, neurophysiology, veterinary medicine, blologtcals. and drugs. Capabilities in the agricultural and biological sciences are also expected lo improve appreciably over the nextears as the result of increased official support. However, marked advances in Soviet agriculture can be effectedajor research effort, by applying scientificand technological achievements already available In thc USSR. Biological research probably will place new emphasis on theto biology of thc concepts and tech-
niques of the physical sciences, and willto support the space program Welhat, as thc resultoncerted research program, the USSK will be able lolosed biological system by lhe time thai manned space flight of more than limited duration can be accomplished
uclearllhough Sovietin nuclear lechnology is notin diversity and scope to lhal of lhe US. it is highly competent in specific fields. There is substantial evidence that the USSR isa high priority expansion of itsfor the application of atomic energy to both military and peaceful uses. Evidence from Soviel tests indicates lhat they have made steady progress In nuclear weaponsparticularly In the design andof thermonuclear weapons. If testing is resumed tliey will probably make further significant progress in such areas as weight reduction, higher yields, antimissileand economies in use of fissionableThey have also made considerable progress In thc development of nuclear power and have displayed much interest in nuclear propulsion. The only known application ofystem is In the icebreaker Lenin,there Is evidence which Indicates theof nuclear propulsion to submarines and the existence of an active nuclear aircraft project. The USSR Is also constructinglarge nuclear power plants and3 should have an Installed nuclear generating capacilylectrical megawatts
uided Missile and Space Programs' In the field of guided missiles and space vehicles, lhe USSR continues to press ahead with an extensive research and development program. There ts ample evidence that very capable personnel and high quality research and de-Tor further details tec. "The Soviet Atomic Rncigynled uneimited Distribution. 'For further details, sec MRa, "Soviet Capabilities In Oulded Mluilei and Spacedated ID AiiguU Ivv. TOP SECRET, or lhe forthcomingl
irlopmcnl facilities are available to the missilespace programs and lhat they enjoy cx-ncntcly high priorities Tliey are supported by extensive Sovicl research in related fields, including electronics, meteorology, space medicine, astrobiology, astrophysics, nnd Soviet achievements in sui face-to-mii face ballistic missiles and space vehicles have been particularly Impressive. Subslan-iial pi ogress is also evident in the developmenl of surface-to-air and alr-to-surfacc missiles Thc Soviels are also believed to have air-toaii missiles operational, although considerably less evidence is available on this type The Soviets are expected lo press forward wiih llseir guided missile program in all important categories. We haveonsiderable Soviet capability for early accomplishments in space, and believeajor effort will be made lo achieve manned space flight ahead of the US.
ther Weapons Development. The USSR has also made rapid progress in other areas ol weapms research and development. The extensive re-equlpmcnl program in lhe Sovicl ground forces attests lo an impressiveeffort in all ground weapon categories, directed primarily lo increasing firepower,and amphibious capabilities Soviet capabilities in theoretical aeronauticalare generally very good, but theirdevelopment capabilities are significantly behind those of the US dueack ofresearch facilitiesanufacturing technology generally comparable to that which existed in the West during World War II. Soviet naval research and development is also significantly behind that of lhe West, although thc caliber of their experimentalts Improving Good theoretical work is evident In hydrodynamics and hydroacous-tics. and great emphasis Is being given todevelopment. There is firm evidence that the USSR is conducting extensiveand biological warfare research programs started by capable scientists and involvingresearch institutes.
oviet weapons research and development wall continue toery high priority during the period o( this estimate. The USSR ts expected to design and produce ad-
vanced aircraft for both civil and military use. but Soviet aircraft development probably will continue lo lag behind lhat ol the US over the nextears. Allhough wc haveoviet decision to emphasize missile and space acUvities may have resultedessening of effort on militaty alicrall In naval weapons development, wc believe lhal significant technological progress will be made in developing guided missile submarines, in the application of nuclear propulsion, and in submarine hull design. Soviet development efforts In antisubmarine warfare probably will be accelerated due to thc increasing threat of US missile-carrying submarines. Ground weapons development probably will continueapid pace, with emphasis on defensive weapons against low flying aircraft, airweapons and equipment, weightof existing equipment, and improved armor. Research emphasis tn chemical and biological warfare probably will be placed on development of new and improved agents, means for dissemination, and equipment for defense.
development hasapid pace and there Is evidence ofsteadily increasing native Sovietall important aspects. More complexground radars are now beingand with the advent of fasterand newer airborne weapons,radar is expected to appear.advances are likely tocomplex automatic data handlingfor use in air defense, and possiblyin the space progrum. We alsoSoviet progress in Jamming
Technology, The qualityIndustrial technology is veryindustrial sectors and evensectors generally well-developed.areas of heavy Industry, practicesa par with Uie best technologicalthe West. In some cases, such asblast furnaces, machineprestrcssed concrete. Uie Sovietspioneering adaptations andof note. However, Sovicl technological
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in agriculture, forestry, foodtextiles, rail and inland water transport, civil telecommunications, and certain aspects of thc construction Industry are far below Western standards nnd in some areas lag behind thc West by as much asears. Even in the inost advanced Soviet industries, some practices which border on theor the primitive exist side by side with thc most advanced industrial techniques.
he USSR has the capability over the next decade to make important advances in raising the average level of ils performance. Some indication of the iiosslblc magnitude of this
advance is thc planned capital investment. which is equal lo twice lhat of the preceding seven years. It is almostthat the gap between lhc "best" and "average" practice will narrow considciably over lhe nexlears by the broaderof many universally known techniques as well as several Soviel pioneering advances However, in spite of the effort and resources being devoted to this task, the magnitude of the problem of catching up with the West is so great that Soviet industrial technology will remain generally behind that ol the West during the period of this estimate
Original document.
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