CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This report shows the changes in the population and labor force of the USSR (hat are expected to take place0or purposes of comparison, data also are presented for earlier years.
The USSR has already taken steps to cope with the two mostmanpower problems that will be encountered duringhe small increments lo the population of working agend tho effective use of the huge labor force living on farms. By reducing the armed forcos and by controlling the rate of school enrollment among youths, the USSR has succeeded in providing enoughlabor to overfulfil its manpower and production plans in spiteontinuous decline in the increments to the population-of working age resulting from the low birth rates of World War II. The number of persons on farms is expected to be almost as large0 asy promoting industrial and construction activities in rural areas, the USSR has attempted tocmploy surplus agricultural worke rs on the farms, thus keeping rural-to-urban migrationinimum and avoiding the necessity for providing more housing and public utilities in the already overcrowded cities.
The estimates fors arc based on statistics that havein official Soviet publications. The outlookfors is based on the following assumptions:
birth rates (by age ofill remain
at present levels but that death rates willslowly.
the goals announced for the Seven Year
S) relating to manpower andwill be achieved and that the trends established in the first half of the decade will continue
the planned reduction in the armed forces
byillionill take place,
no mAJor war or other cataclysmic event
THE POPULATION WILL INCREASEILLION7 MILLION DURINGs
5 0 5 0
WorldWir IIatastrophic effect on the population of the USSR. The population (within the present boundaries of the country) fellillion0 toillion0 level wasained
In addition to the enormous military and civilian losses attributable to the war. birth rates fell to less than half their prewar level and did not recover that level untilhe small number of children born during the war years has already posed periodic problems for
* All population estimates in this report are midyear figures.
The civilian labor force of the USSR will increase byurings,illion more than the increase durings. Growth will be -slower in the first half of the decade than in the second because the age groups starling to workill be the unusually small groups born during the war and the early postwar period. The increase will be enough, however, to permit theof the manpower goals set by the Seven Year.
THE NUMBER OF PERSONS REACHING WORKING AGE WILL BEGIN TO RISEHARP DECLINE DURING
total number of persons reaching the normal working age ofn the USSR will more than double00rom i.illion. This increaseapid decline durings, particularly in thealf of the decade. These fluctuations result from the sharp decline in the birth ratend its subsequent rise.
Thedccline in the numberyear-olds would have resulteduch slower growth in the labor force than actually occurred if the USSR had not taken steps to increase the labor supply, lly controlling school enrollment and by reducing the armed forces, however, the USSR has been able to keep its civilian labor force growingairly even pace.
DECLINING SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND REDUCTIONS IN THE ARMED FORCES ARE ALLOWING THE CIVILIAN. LABOR FORCE TO INCREASE STEADILY DURING THE PERIOD OF "POPULATION SHORTAGE"
ADDITIONSHt POPULATION Of WORKING AM AND TO THI CIVILIAN LABOR (OKI, IMSAS
50 the civilian labor force of the USSR increased byillion, but the population of workingncreased byillion. At the same time, the number of persons of working age in day schools and colleges declined, and the armed forces were
t The decrease in day school enrollment resulted bothecline in the number of persons of high school age andecline in the proportioncnrolled. More young people thus became available for work. This downward trend in school enrollment is expected to be reversed in the, when the numberyear-olds begins to rise and when the Current reorganization of education is completed.
50 the armed forces decreased by moreillion persons, and the Soviet government has announced plans to cut the armed forces by an additionalillionears wnen the additions to the population of working age will be the lowest (fewerillion each year).
WOMEN FAR OUTNUMBER MEN IN THE POPULATION AND IN THE KEY WORKING AGES
constituteercent of the total population of thene of the highest percentages in the world. In the age grouphereomen foren. The heavy preponderance of women in these agesonsequence of the disproportionate losses of menduring World War II andalso during the collectivisation drive ofs. omen will constituteercent of the population.
The age structure of the population will not change greatly durings. About the same proportion will be in the working ageso0 io now, but women willmaller part of the total.
Women now make up more than half of the civilian labor force of the USSR, but their predominance is gradually diminishing.0 the labor force will be about equally divided between men and women.
Nearly two-lhirds of the number of Sovietears of age and over currently participate in the labor force. Women probably will continue-to participate at this high rale durings. Thecould rise even higher, for Soviet leaders have csiablishcd as angoal the almost universal participation of women in employment outside the home. Soviet plans call for mora kindcrga rlons. nurseries, boarding schools, and public dining facilities to make it possible for more women to work.
WOMEN ARE EMPLOYED EXTENSIVELY IN ALI BRANCHES OF THE ECONOMY
ECONOMIC SECTOR HEALTH TRADE EDUCATIONAGRICULTURE
Some sectors of the Soviet economy, such as trade, education, and health, are staffed largely by women.bout three-fourths of all doctors and aboutercent of all teachers were women. Although women accounted for aboutercent of total Agricultural employmenthe proportion has been declining steadily and will continue to decline durings. Even in those sectors where women do not predominate, such as construction and transportation, they nevertheless constitute more than one-fourth of the total.
NEARLY HALF OF THE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IS EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURE
More thanillion people in (he USSRearly half of the total labor forcere engaged in agriculture. This figure represents the numberof personsearsold andovcrwho live on collective and state farms and who participate in normal farm activities at some timethe year. It also includes unpaid family workers who live on those farms and who work exclusively on private plotstill an important source of agricultural production in the USSR.
A little more than one-fourth of the labor force is employed inand conn truction. and somewhat less than one-fourth is employed in the service sector. Slightly more than half of all workers in theare employed in education, health, and trade, and about one -fourth are employed in transportation and communications.
Agricultural employment is expected to resume its historic downward trend duringsemporary interruption during thes, when Khrushchev's "new lands" program added several million
people to Soviet farms.gricultural employment will still be high, constitutingercent of the civilian labor force.
Employment in the services, which increased byercent ins, will increase byercent durings.f the labor force will be working in, service activities compared withercentevertheless, more people will still bein the nonagricultural productive industries (manufacturing,and construction) than in tho services.
The rural population of the USSR it expected to dropf the total0 toercentarly in the decade the urban population for the first time will exceed the rural population.
Post-Stalinagricullural policics reduced the rate ofigration, resulting in the same rural population0he "rural population is expected todropslowly toillion
Although Soviet agriculture probably will achieve sizable gains in productivity durings. the integration of surplus unskilled farm labor into the urban labor force will present difficult problems. Khru-shchevhas talked about urbanizing the countryside by developing "farm-cities" at existing farm sites, thus avoiding the necessity for providing additional housing and public utilities in already crowded urban areas. These farm-cities would provide training for jobs in industry andfor farm workers who become surplus throughome such scheme maybe necessary to cope with the anomalyuge farm labor forceuga rural populationountry undergoing rapid industrialization.
THE EDUCATIONAL LEVEL OF THE POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE IS STILL LOW
attainment of tme population (ace li and 0Villi.
Some idea ol the educational level of the Soviet labor force may be obtained from the data on educational attainment of the entire adultgiven in9 census.nlyercent ofears old and over had graduated from college,had not even completed elementary schoolonsiderable educational progress was achieved by the USSR during the decade ofs, afterear elementary school was made compulsoryven greater progress probably will be made durings, whenear elementary education is scheduled to become
THE PACE OF EDUCATIONAL PROGRESS WILL BE STEPPED UP SHARPLY DURINGVENING SCHOOL ATTENDANCE IN HIGH SCHOOLS AND COLLEGES WILLAJOR ROLE
High ichool and college enrollment in the USSR will rise rapidly durings. The USSR is currently reorganizing its schoolto place more emphasis on vocational education in high schools and on evening enrollment in both high schools and colleges.ear elementary schools are toear schools, and attendance will be compulsory. The projected rise in day school enrollment during thes will result from the increased attendance in the eighth grade of the reorganized elementary schools as well as from the largerof pe rsons of high school age in the population. Durings,illionillion persons will be graduating from collegewithillion durings.
High school education is to be made "universally available" but not compulsory. The USSR also is tightening the controls over schooltoore effective means of manipulating schoolin accordance with the need for labor. State authorities will decide whether graduates from the eighth grade arc to go to work, to high school, orrade school. Those who go directly to work will be encouragvd to attend evening classes. Enrollment in evening schools will expand almost as rapidly as that in day schools.
PRODUCT AND PRODUCTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY
ise in ,he levc* of education and skill of the Soviet
caDiu^nshould permit consumption per
0 .heof living of ft.Original document.