CURRENT PROBLEMS AND PLANNING IN THE ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM OF THE USSR (RR IM

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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM

CURRENT PROBLEMS AND PLANNING IN THE ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM OF THE USSR

CIA/RR70

N 0

^material contains In forma lion aftecLing the fftttonaL_Defeni* of thewithin thclaws. Title IB.ihcor^jcvelatlon of which Trf'aity-^nanncr to ao-tffauthorizcd person Is prohibited

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports

. 'i.in'.-

I. Poor Performance In

II.

on Thermal Electric

Designs and

III. Threat of Power Shortages

17. Prospects for

V. Relation of Electrification to the Development of

VI. Relation of Electrification to the Development of

Coals for

as tbe Economic Basis of Coemunisa

Growth in Comparison with US

Appendix

Source References

Tables

Increases In Industrial Production, Pro-

ductivity, Labor Force, and Consumption of Electric

Power in the

Production and Industrial Consumption of

Electric Power and Capacity of Electric Powerplants In

the US and the8 and Selected Years,

- ill -

f

CURRENT PfiOBIJMS AMD PIAIffiniG IN THE ELKCTRIFICATTON PROGRAM

OP THE USSR*

Summary

Int the All-Union Conference on Electric Power Construction, Premier Khrushchev expressed dissatisfaction with the rate at which capacity for production of electric power was being expanded in the USSR. Construction of new powerplants in9 had fallen behind schedule, threatening to impede both theprogram and the economic development of the USSR. The prospect of shortages of electric power had prompted the Centralof the Communist Party toountrywide campaign to conserve electricity.

In bis speech, Khrushchev defined the problem areas in the program for constructing powerplants. Under tbe Seven Yearhe rate at which new capacity is-installed must increase by moreillion kilowatts (kw) annually if the goal for electrification is to be achieved. Because construction of thermal electric powerplants Is the most expedient means of making such large additions to capacity, priority is now being given to these plants rather than to thepowerplants emphasized during earlier plans. Achievement of thc goal for construction of thermal electric powerplants, however, will entail the Installation of turbogenerators larger than those now in operation In the USSR, and the electrotechnical industry has fallen behind schedule in bringing these large units Into serial production. Khrushchev also was displeased with the rate at which modern powerplant equipment and methods of construction were being developed and put Into use.

* The estimates snd conclusions in this memorandura represent the best Judgment of this Office as

Even though the Seven Year Plan for Installation of new capacity may beiedillion toillion kv, the goal for production of electric power5 probably can be met by increasing utilization of existing powerplants and rearranging work schedules in industry. On the basis of the current level of industrial productionrend toward an upward revision in plans, it Is possible that5 goal for consumption of electric power by Industry will be met or 'in some cases exceeded. It is estimated, therefore, thatof electric power5 will be close to the goalkilowatt-bours (kwh).

At the conference, Khrushchev also announced nev goals forof electric power50 that would require continuing high rates of increase in production of electric power and construction of powerplants. Khrushchev has set his sights on completeIn the USSR to support the development of the national economy and to surpass the US in production and industrial consumption ofpower. If the Soviet goals for production of electric power are achieved, the USSR could overtake the US in total production ofpower in thes, and industrial consumption of electric power in the USSR could surpass that in the US

Performance9

7-year program for construction of electric powerplants Instarted badly. he first year of the Seven Yearthe goal for Installation of new generating capacitymet. esult, Soviet leaders fear that there will beelectric power for industrial consumers in the next year orwas apparent at the All-Union Conference on Electricwhich was held in Moscow in9 for thediscussing measures necessary for fulfillment of the goals forunder the Seven Yearspeeches at thisincluding an exhortation by Premier Khrushchev andby the Minister of Construction of Electric Powerplants, reflected several major current problems and proposedthe electrification program of the USSR.

The accomplishments of the electric power industry9 were unsatisfactory to the Soviet leaders. The goal for production ofpower9illion Kwu. Actual productionkwh, or slightly more than the goal, but this level ofwas achieved only through more intensive utilization of capacity. The installation of new capacity, however, fell below the goal. illion kw of new capacity was placed in operation, comparedlanillion kw, an underfulf iliment ofercent The under fulfillment of the plan would have been much greater had it not been for the installation of four units more than planned at the Stalingrad hydroelectric powerplant and two units more than planned at the KremcnChug hydroelectric powerplant, otalw above plan at these two hydroelectric powerplants. The goal forof thermal electric capacity, therefore, was underfulfilled

w, orercent. Installation ofwthc South Urals thermal electric povcrplant, the first unit ofin the country, was not completed by the endnd workto be progressing unsatisfactorily at the Too' -Usinsk,other large thermal electric powerplants, especially lnregions, including the Urals. The plan8 alsolied by morethe lag was ogain in

construction of thermal electric powerplants, whichw short of the goal. The practice of Installing most of the capacity in the last quarter of the year may have been partly responsible for the unsatisfactory results. Of the capacity Installed during the year,ercent8 andercentc placed in operationthe last quarter.

Kovlkov blamed other organizations for the lag in construction of electric power facilities. Tbe manufacturers of equipment were charged with falling behind schedule In deliveries, with foiling to reduce the cost of their equipment, and with falling to dC3lgn and producenew models of equipment. Novikov also stated that the supply of cable for new transmission lines was Inadequate and that the projects for the promised construction bases of the Ministry of Construction of Electric Powerplants were behind schedule.

II. Problems of Powerplant Construction

A,. Construction

The major speech at the Soviet All-Union Conference on Blectrlc Power Construction ln9 wus giver, by Premier Khrushchev on

the last day of theexpressed concern over the

of development of electrification, which threatens achievement of the

industrial goalsmphatically reasserted the priority of construction of thermal electric powerplants, and urged the moot rapid adoption of new designs and methods of construction that would speed up construction of powerplants.

An aggregatenit composedurbineenerator.

The current Seven Yearnvisions the addition ofillion toillion kw of generating capacity andm) of transmission lines by the Soviet electric power Industry, which Is more than twiceillion kw of generating capacity0 km of trananlsslon lines added inear. The plan toillion kv0 leaves aboutillion lew for theears of the plan, or an average of almostillionear, _ comparedillion kw commissioned8kw installed It is planned tbat,, new capacity will

be inetalled: at the rate ofillionillionear and transmission lines at the rate of Uo.OOOear. " ulfillment of the plan will depend on Soviet ability to produce and install new generating equipmentate of increase of moreillion kwignificantly higher rate than has beenpreviously. The0 is to be the decisive period for speeding up construction of pover facilities. * In order to Install the rapidly Increasing amounts of new capacity that will be required inhe preparatory work must be accomplished

B. Emphasis on Thermal Electric Powerplants

In his speech to thc Soviet power construction workers, Khrushchev strongly reiterated his preference for the construction of thermal electric powerplants, summarizing his views as follows: "Hydroelectric powerplants would be better If they could be built more quickly, but at the present stage thermal electric powerplanta are better because they become operational more quickly."

Tho debate over construction of thermal electric powerplants as opposed to hydroelectric powerplants arose from thc obviousof the capital allocations, not only in volume but also infor meeting the industrial goals of the original Sixth Five Year. It was apparent7 that it would beto achieve the goals0 vith the capital allocations that bad been planned. Along with the industrial, reorganization of It was* decided toeven Year Plan that would make allocations of investment more nearly commensurate with goals for Because the electric power industry is one of the most capital-intensive Industries, investment in electric powerubject of controversy between two major groups. There were those who arguedontinuing emphasisydroelectric powerplants, in which lower costs of production vould more than compensate for the higher Initial investment. There were others who argued that on Investment maturing earlier Is to be preferred to one which "sterilizes" capital resourcesonger period, in spite of thc later higher costs of production for thermal electric powerplants.

Later discussion of the Seven Year Plan for construction of powerplants shows how tho Soviet planners viewed their choices and Indicated the thinking behind the decision to support the emphasis on thermal electric powerplants. It washat the reduction in emphasis on' hydroelectric installations during the Seven Year Plan and thc attendant reduction of investments in hydroelectric powerplants would permit the commissioning of new capuclty for production ofpower during the period to he increased byillion kwhat the retention during the Seven Year Plan of the prevloua ratio

of hydroelectric to thermal electric power capacity, if applied to the total electric power capacity planned for installation during the period, would require additional capital Investment totalingillion rubles."'

There were three possible solutions to the question ofpriorities, as follows: o retain the previously existing ratio of hydroelectric and thermal electric capacity and the plan for commissioningillion toillion kw of new capacity, which would require an investment programillion rubles larger thanillion rubleso retain the previouslyratio of hydroelectric and thermal electric capacity within thc limits of the total investment programillionillionwhich would limit the construction of new electric power capacity toillion kw less than that presently required in the Seven Year Plan;o retain both the commissioning plan and the totalprogram as provided under the Seven Tear Plan, which would thc aa substantial change in the ratio of hydroelectric and thermalgenerating capacity in favor of thermal electric powerrastic reduction In the costs of thc( hydroelectric powerplants to be built.

Ont the dedication of the Kuybyshevpowerplant, Khrushchev put bia weight behind the thirdthus supporting the proponents of thermal electric powerplantB. The victory was not clear cut, however, and disaffection still existed beneath the surface. In hie speech at the November conference,made several references to continued grumbling over the merits of the thermal electric power program, and he presented the case for thermal electric power with fervor and persistence.

According to earlier plans, hydroelectric power was topercent of the total production or electric power in

pared with aboutercent8 andercent In

cording to the Seven Year Plan, as adopted, hydroelectric powerplants will account for onlyercent of production of electric powerf the new capacity to be Installed by the electric power industry during the Seven Year Plan,oercent will be installed la hydroelectric powerplants, andoercent In thermal electric powerplants, comparedercentage breakdown ofercent in hydroelectric andercent in thermal, electric powerplants Installed duringear.

The shift in emphasis Is even more apparent in the proportional allocation of Investments within the electric power industry, as shown be Low

" Ruble values la this memorandum are expressed ln current rubleo and may be converted to US dollars at the official rate of exchange of ato This rate of exchange, however, does not necessarilytbe dollar value. Ten rubles to USppears to be good working ratio aa applied to electric power.

Mi

Percent Billion Rubles Percent Bill Ion Rubles

Hydroelectric oelectric

o 76

Transmission o 32

Total

Much of the shift in allocation of Investmentesult of changes within the program for constructing hydroelectric powerplants rather thanhift from construction of hydroelectric powerplants toof thermal electric powerplants.

Capital expenditures per kilowatt of Installed hydroelectric capacity were reduced fromrublesubles, primarily because many of the new hydroelectric powerplants are at favorable natural sites in Siberia that willsmaller amounts of earth and concrete work per kilowatt ofcapacity than did earlier construction ln the European plains. For example, the hydroelectric powerplant at Bratsk on thc Angara River Is expected to cost little more than one-half as much aa tbe plant on the Volga near Kuybyshev, but it will produce twice as much power. m Part of the reduction In the average cost also is areduction, for much of the investment for the high-costpowerplant at Stalingrad was made8 and the capacity ic being added Aside from the very large plants, the average hydroelectric powerplants to be builtill be larger than those built, and this greater size willower cost per kilowatt of capacity. Most of the powerplants to be built during thc Seven Year Plan have been completely redesigned. Thehydroelectric powerplant on thc Volga will now be built bymethods, and concrete work on the Bratsk hydroelectric powerplant on the Angara River is to be cut In halfesult of

C. New Designs and Methods

Khrushchev was not content merely to endorse thermal electric powerplants. He went on to press for the more rapid Installation of new generating capacity, which would comeesult of theof powerplants and the development and use of new powerplantand methods of construction. His exhortationuther

-T

Percent Billion Billion Rubles

Hydroelectric oelectric

powerplants *2 o 76

Transmission lines 10 o 32

Total

Much or the shift ln allocation of lnvcntmentesult of changeu within tbe program for constructing hydroelectric powerplants rather thanhift from construction of hydroelectric powerplants toof thermal electric powerplants.

Capital expenditures per kilowatt of installedwere reduced from kjkO rubles, primarily because many of the neware at favorable natural sites ln Siberia that willsmaller amounts of earth and concrete work per kilowatt ofcapacity than did earlier construction in the Europeanexample, the hydroelectric powerplant at Bratsk on theIs expected to cost little more than one-half as much ason the Volga near Kuybyshev, but It will produce twice asof the reduction In the average cost alsoook-

keeping reduction, for much of thc investment for the high-costpowerplant at Stalingrad was made8 and the capacity is being added Aside from the very large plants, the average hydroelectric powerplants to be builtlll be larger than those built, and this greater site willower cost per kilowatt of capacity. Most of the powerplants to be built during tho Seven Year Plan have been completely redesigned. Thehydroelectric powerplant on the Volga will now be built bymethods, and concrete work on thc Bratsk hydroelectric powerplont on the Angara River ir. to be cut in halfesult of

C. Mew Designs and Methods

Khrushchev was not content merely to endorse thermal electric powerplants. He went on to press for the more rapid Installation of new generating capacity, which would comeesult of thoof powerplants and the development and use of new powerplantand methods of construction. His exhortationather

fl-

naive optimism about what technically could be accomplished but left no doubt in the minds of his listeners that he vas serious in his desire that tbey concentrate on adoption of poverplant designslong In use in Western countries. He also urged that theyew more Socialist techniques of construction based on extensive standardization, pre fabrication, and large regional construction bases. Most of his proposals already had been widely discussed in thepress and already were partly carried out. Khrushchev urged greater rapidity in thc adoption of his proposals and promisedfunds for research and development where necessary.

One of the areas in which the USSR is far behind the US and in which it can make the most rapid gains is In the size and efficiency of thermal electric powerplants. By increasing the size of both the powerplant and the equipment installed in it, construction time and capital expenditure per kilowatt of installed capacity, as well as production costs, may be radically reduced. Under the Seven Year Plan,ercent of the new thermal electric power capacity is to be in units,w, mostly in plants with capacitiesillion* million kw.

Ko units of this size are in operation in the USSR attime. The degree to which the new equipment can beoperation depends on the capabilities of the electrotechnlcalto produce the units. Theuwas scheduled for operation7 hut was notat thc end offor thew turbo-

generator only recently have beenthe first unit

probably will not be producedI and will not be inuntil atear later. w unit is notto be readyf that soon. In spite of the ambitious targets of the Seven Year Plan, there has been no provision for adding to the number of plants producing turbines and generators. The scheduled increases in production are to be achieved mainly by the expansion of existing plants and by increased efficiency in methods of production.

There is no technical reason why the USSR cannot achieve its goals for production of larger units, but the past Soviet history of bringing new uni ts Into serial production suggests that their program may be overly optimistic. Seven years elapsed between the designing ofw unit and serial production. w unit was designed6 and probably will not be in serial production w unit may not be in serial production Any slippage in these production schedules will force anIliment of plans for additions to capacity.

Khrushchev also urged speed In the application of new design techniques, mostly copied from the West, which simplify, speed up, and reduce the cost of construction of powerplants. In warmer latitudes, there will be constructed more open-air plants ln which thc equipment is Installed, without the cover of buildings. Increased use of natural gas is expected to cut costs further by eliminating storage, conveying, and grinding equipment used in coal-burning plants. The block principle,oiler, turbogenerator, and transformer will be installed as one unit with no cross-connections, will speed up construction time, lower the costs of Installation, and permit increased labor productivity. In addition, greater use will be made of prefabricatedoviet Innovation comprising up toercent of total plant structures io thermal electric powerplants andoercent in hydroelectric powerplants.

, In support of Khrushchev's demandore rapid rate ofof powerplants, the Ministry of Construction of Electric Powerplants has inauguratedillion-ruble programajor expansion of Its vast empire of regional construction bases. These bases will be located in tbe center of power development areas and will manufacture prefabricated components of buildings, boilers, and other structures away from the actual site of tbe powerplant, thereby lowering the costs of construction, speeding building time, and providing more room at the construction sites. Personnel of thc construction bases will supervise construction of powerplants in their areas and provide an equipment park.

III. Threat of Power Shortages

The entire All-Union Conference on Electric Power Construction in the USSR uas haunted by the threat of possible power shortages arising from the poor showing in the Installation of new electric power facilities in the past several years. ecade ofincreasing additions to capacity, new additions to capacity for the first time dropped below additions of the previous year. In that year, because of the poor performance of the economy in general, installations continued to increase faster than requirements for power.89 the consumption of electric power increased more rapidly than did capacity. Demand will continue to increase more rapidly than will capacity

The seriousness of the threat of un inadequate supply ofwas emphasized by the launching, by thc Central CommitteeCommunist Party,ampaign Tor the conservation ofwith the opening of the conference, an open

letter was issued to political and administrative organizations at all levels, criticizing wasteful practices and issuing Instructions

tostubborn struggle" for the thrifty use of electricity. In order to supply adequately thc increasing demands of industry,and other consumers, an all-out effort was ordered to utilize properly every kilowatt-hour of electricity produced.

Excessive losses of power by industry and transportationamountingillionear. Of thisillionattributed to improper lighting practices. The total powerlighting in the USSR Isillionreplace old, worn,

and Inefficient lighting fixtures and system* would take much time and cannot be accomplished Immediately. Thus the "losses" nre not, as might appear at first glance, easily retrievable.

The urgency of the letter ordering tbe conservation ofand tbe mere fact that the matter is serious enough togeneral letter from thc Central Committee of the Communistindicationshortage of power in tbe next year or two It was reported that one of the speakers at theof the conference stated that if waste of electric powercontrolled, the goals of the Seven Year Plan for productionpower could not bestatement was, perhaps,

an exaggeration, but it does emphasize the intimate relation of the achievement of the plan for electrification of the economy to the achievement of the goals for industrial production.

IV. Prospects5

The fulfillment of the goal for production of electric power5 depends on two limiting factorsthe amount of generating capacity in Soviet electric powerplants5 and the ability of tbe consumers to use tbe amount of electric power that is planned for production In the USSR. It should be noted that the Seven Year Plan for the Installation of electric power capacity can be met, even if the turbine and generator Industries fail to meet5 goals for production by as muchercent. Furthermore, goals for production of electric power can be reached, even If thc Installation of capacity is underrulfilledillion toillionoy not retiring old equipment, which Is costly to operate, and bythe utilization of the powerplants to the level that prevailed Thin solution, however, might entail rearrangement of work schedules in industry. On the basis of capacity to be available thereufficient reserve included in tbe plans so that the upper limit of the plan for production of electric0 billion kwh) probably can be attained. The poor shoving lo the installation of new generating capacity in the last few years and thc problems racing thc turbogenerator industry suggest, however, that thc plan for production of electric power could not be substantially exceeded.

C,

Tho ability of the consumers to use the amount of electric power that Is planned for production depends on the success of the economy in general and of industry in particular In fulfilling the goals On the basis of the current level by which the plan is being exceededeneral upward revision In plans, it is probable thatlan for conuumption of electric power by industry will be attained and may even be exceeded. This conclusion is based on the assumption that there will be no great change ln thc pattern ofof electric power such as that which would resulteneral disarmament agreementonsequent reduction Inof electric power for production of nuclear material!.. In view of tbe uncertainty of assumptions on disarmament and toe fact thatof electric power by other sectors of the economy may not meet the plan, consumption of electric power and therefore production5 probably will be close to the goalillion lewh.

V. Relation of Electrification to the Development of Industry

J

In the pastears the growth of thc gross value ofin the USSR (as indicated by official Soviet indexesconstant prices) and of consumption of electric power byhaa progressed at the samedefinition. Increases

ln labor productivity and consumption of electric power per workerat the same rate. The Seven Year Plan,er cent increase in tbe gross value ofercent Increase in tbe consumption of electric power byUSSR plans, therefore, that Increases in consumption

of electric power per worker willimes an great as Increases In labor productivity overearoticeable change from the pattern of the lastears. Thc percentage Increasesnd those plannedre shown In

The planned rapid Increase In consumption of electric powerof Industrial productionay be accounted for bythree Interdependent considerations. pproximatelyof the additional increase in consumption of electricbe attributedlanned rapid growth of power-intenaivcand electrochemical processes, which are expected topercent of all Industrial power5 comparedt lo possible that an Indeterminate amount of the

* Table 1 follows on

LO -

planned increase in consumption of electric power per unit or industrial output may be accounted foreliberate understatement of therate of Industrial growth. In the Fifth Five Year. consumption of electric power by Industry was to increaseaster ttian industrial production, act, however, industrial production grewercent faster than planned, but

0 "OHI A^C

VI- Relation of Electrification to thc Development of Coammnlsm

A. Lpng-Range Goala for

The concern expressed by Khrushchev over thc present rate of development in electrification In thc USSR also is to be examined in the light of long-range goals for the complete electrification of tho Soviet economy. Re presented these goals to the conference as the foundationew program to be considered at the Twenty-secondof the Communist partyI. ' ' This new long-range plan for electrification calls for the conti nation5 of the present rapid rate of grovth of electric pover, for the establishment of the "economic basis of Communism" through the electrification or the USSR, andevel of Industrial production that would surpass that of tbe US.

-According to the plan, production of electric power will amountillion kwhillion kwhkwbO. Capacity of powerplants is toimes Inoears. ' The contemplated growth In production ofpower Is shown in the chart.*

These goalseversal of the policy adopted 2when the Sixth Five Year Plan was abandoned. Inor production of electric power5 vas reported tobillion kwh. ' ' Inhrushchev announcedbillionillion kwh would be producedlowering of the goalsore realisticnow has

returned to thc earlier goalillion kwh5 in histo overtake and surpass the US. Tbe average annual rale ofin production of electric pover, instead of declining toercent5s to continuet about tbe same rate as in thcercent per year. 05 the indicated average annual rate of Increase Is only slightly lower,rop toercent per year5

The proposed Increase la capacity Is to bring0 million kw Inwould be adequate to produce

therillion kwho with an overage utilization factor ofear. According to the Seven Year Plan, total capacity at thc end5 shouldillionillion kw. Tootal of "tHO million kw by the endt would be necessary to install an average or aboutmillionear. The goal* requires Installation ofillion toillion kw or additional capacity. The annual construction programs

"Following

-

tbuo would have to increaseery rapid rote in order to keep up with the long-range goals for production of electric power.

B. Electrification as tbe Economic Basis of Cocmunlsn

In presenting his long-range goals, Khrushchev cited Lenin's dictum that "Communism is the Soviet power plus the electrification of the whole country" and presented this formulaconcrete and live idea concerning the tasks of the construction ofe said that tho political basis of Communism, the establishment ol Soviet power, has been accomplished and that the economic basis of Oomnunism, the electrification of all of thc USSR, is now acquiring decisive importance. The stage of development must be reached In which all workers, industrial and agricultural, produce by means of machinery rather than with muscular force. According to Communist doctrine, this mechanization is what makes one free and capable of

nto the Communist society. This stage, according to Lenin and Khrushchev, can be achieved only when the entire country Isthereby furnishing the motive power to the machinery. It is reasoned that the long-term plan for thc complete electrification of tue country must become the basis of the program for theof Communism.

The electrification of the wbole country means, in Sovietelectrification of agriculture, inasmuch as Industry Ispercent electrified." Starting from practically nothing inelectrification Is growing rapidly. wh per rural inhabitant, comparedwh in Francekwb in3 percent of all state farms were

electrified to some extent, but onlypercent of collectiveeven partlythe basis of present plans,

Soviet agriculture should be using aboutillion kwbrwb per rural inhabitant, which Is about two-thirds of the anticipated US level for the same period.

C. Soviet Growth In Comparison with US Growth

The figures presented by Khrushchev arc impressive whenwith probable US production of electric powerndgoals are attainable, there may be Some basis for his hope ofUS industrial production Inyear period. Threeof production of electric power in the US in

Residential and commercial use of electric power is not considered to be Important in the Soviet concept of electrification of the wbole

country.

lowest 'by the Federal Power Commission, the highestrivate utility

spokesman, und tbe intermediate estimate by an independent researchhen adjusted to total gross production to sake them comparable to Soviet figures,illion kwh.evelillion kwh ia to be achievedhe average annual rate of increase in production of electric power would indicate that production wouldillion kwh5illion kwhhis rate of Increase in production of electric power could support anannual Increase5 percent In gross national product.

The USSR Is gaining every year ln the percentage of USof electric power that it produces. 8 the USSR produced aboutercent as much electric power as the US. 5 it Isthat this percentage will have risen to W* percent,0 toercent, and5 to jh percent. Because the USuch larger base, its lead over tho USSR ln actual production of electric power will continue to increasefter which time this lead willto decrease, on the assumption that production will be approximately as indicated above.* If production continued to Increase In the US at the rate indicatednd In the USSR at the rate planned, Soviet production of electric power would equal that of the US by toes.

See Tablehich follows on* Following These estimates arehe sum of electric power used inmining, and governmental Industries, as appearing in various publications of the Federal Power Comlssion and the Department of The total ranges fromercent of large light and power sales plus Industrial self-generation, which ore the figures often used as an approximation of Industrial consumption. Percentages ore of gross production, an ln tbe USSR.

Because the use patterns differ in the US and the USSR,of electric power by Soviot industry could overtake that ln the USs shown in the chart.** Electric power consumed by industry, in the USSR representedercent of the total available0 andercent8 s planned to beercent5 nd may be aboutercentotalxwn in that year. In the US, industry consumed kk percent of thc total electric power available0ercent It Is estimated that this amount will declineercent5 and to Up percentillion kwh are expected to be consumed by Thus consumption of electric power by industry in the USSR could surpass that in tbe US in anotherearn. Thethat this accelerated program of electrification will beand the implication that the USSR would overtake the US In Industrial production5 both bolster Khrushchev'a hope of going down inas the leader who gave the Communistecisive weight and Influence In the world.

Tabic 2

Estimated Production and Industrial Consumption of Electric Power and Capacity of Electric Powerplants in tbe US and the8 and Selected

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BLANK PAGE

APPKHDIJ!

SOURCE REFRRENCKfl

Information

Evaluations, folloving the classification entry and designatedave the folloving significance:

Source of Information

Doc

- Documentary

Confirmed by other sources

-

reliable

Probably true

-

reliable

Possibly true

-

reliable

Doubtful

-

usually reliable

Probably raise

-

reliable

Cannot be Judged

-

be Judged

Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the cited iocument; those designated "HP" are by the author of this No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document.

for publications of the US Government, allhis rE?morandua are evaluated RR 2.

In

gatota.. 1.

. 1. U.

. 1. . 1.

-

Izvestiya,. 1. U.

. X. U.

gazeta, U.

29. 1. U.

USS.I. Narodnoye kbozyaystvo8 godu (Tbe National Economy or the USSR,. hereafter referred to as USSH. Narodnoye)

gazeta,- 3- U.

- 1. U.

- X. U.

. 5- U.

. 1. U.

. 1. U.

. 1, U.

Economic Bulletin for Europe,oeneva,

U.

ckonoalki, no U.

Izvestiya,. 1. U.

Gldrotckhnlcheskoyc stroltel' stvo, no. 1. U.

,

AM. Rarvltlye energctlkiGrovth of tbe ElectricIndustry In the. 7. U.

25

, above).

1. 3. U.

, U.

no- L- U.

Izvestiya,. 1. U.

. U. u.

lk. 1- U.

gazeta,. 3.. 1. U.

2. 1

, above).

B- U.

khozyaystvo, no- U.

- 1.

- 2. U.

. 2. U.

t. ro jtel'nnyn gazeta,. 3. U.

- 1- U-

-

UK, BCK. EP/WP3 Working Paperhe State or Huralin Europeeneva, U. hQ- il.

Cldrotekhnlcheskoye stroltel'stvo, noable. 7. ongress, Joint Economic Committee. Energy Resources and Technology, U.

T , above).

Planovoyc kboayaystvo, no- U.

Ibid.

5* UN. Annual Bulletin of Electric Energy Statistics for Europe, volCeneva, U.

55- US Senate. Report and Staff Studies to the Committees onand Insular Affairs and Public Works, Relative Water andPowcr Resource Development In the USSR and" the- U.

56. Pravda,. 2. U.

57- USSR. . above).

56. Edison Electrlc"lnstitute. USSR Electric Pover. U.

59* US Congress. Hearings Before the Subcommittee on Automation

and Energy Resources of the Joint Economic Coxeilttee, Coagress uf the United- U. (he re after referred to asefore the Subcommittee)

Planovoye- ^O.

Promyohlenno-ekonomlcheskaya gazeta,. 2. U.

Ixvcstiva,. 1. U.

Hearings Before the,. Stroltel'naya gat eta,. 3- U.

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