^PfSp1 ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
ANNUAL REVIEW OF CIVIL AVIATION IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
This mcaorandua le oneeries of annual publications that are designed to present ln sunaary form the significant developments In transportation ln the Sino-Sovlet Bloc during each preceding calendar year.
In addition to the present memorandum on civil aviation, the series will include two other annual publications, one on developments in inland transportation Id the Sino-Sovlet Bloc and another on merchant shipping in the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
This memorandum has been coordinated within this Office but not with other USIB agenciea.
- til -
3- Inventory and Types of
h. Expansion of
3- Sales of
IV. Communist Far
USSR: Inventory of Civil Aircraft Held by
1. USSR: rerformance of Aeroflot, Selected9
3- USSt: Length of Scheduled Routes of national Importance
Operated by Aeroflot, Selected9
European Satellites: Passenger Performance of Civil Air
5- European Satellites; Inventory of Civil Aircraft
6. Communist China and North Korea: Civil Air
?. Communist Far East: Inventory of Civil Aircraft
Figure 1. USSR: Performance of
Figure 2. USSR: Dooestic Routes of Aeroflot,
Figure 3- USSR: International Routes of Aeroflot,
Figure k. European Satellites: Domestic and Inter-Routes of Civil Air Carriers,
Figureommunist Far East: Domestic andRoutes of Civil Air Carriers,
ANNUAL REVIEW OF CIVIL AVIATION IN THS SINO-SOVIET BLOC
The greatest progress in civil aviation in the Sino-Soviet Bloc9 vas in the USSR. At the end of the year the USSR and the US were aboutar in terms of ownership of hlgh-perfornance Jet ond turboprop civil air transports, as follows:
Type of Transport Aircraft
In volume of passenger-kilometers ond freightlownhe Soviet civil air fleet, Aeroflot, uae second in the 'world only to the combined operations of US civil air carriers, but it was secondargin ofn passenger-kilometers and byn freight and call ton-kilometers. Nevertheless, gains In the operations of Aeroflotepresentedofercent In passenger-kilometers andIn freight and mail ton-kllooeters. Aeroflot vas rapidly becoming qualified for competition vith the advanced Western air carriers.
Tho European Satellites and the Communist Far East9 had very few hlgh-perfornance aircraft, and their operations vere of small import when compared vith the operations of Aeroflot- The gap betveen traffic perforcance in the USSR and that in the rest of the Sino-Soviet Bloc widened markedly during the year. Thc USSR increased passenger-kilooetersil lionhile thc rest of tbe Bloc Is estimated to have attained an increase of lessilllor.1 ome tc rs.
*t'mates and conclusions in this memorandum represent the best judgment of thie Office as
** Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this memorandum.
The USSR continued to be the principal producer of commercialIn tbe Sino-Soviet Bloc, although4ight transport aircraft, was being manufactured In both Czechoslovakia and East Germany. There were several Important changes In programs for the development and production of Soviet high-performance transport aircraft. Further development of the four-engine Jet transport Tu-UO (Cooker) vas discontinued, and In9 production of tbe two-engine Jet transportCamel) tapered off and may have dropped to aroundonth. At the same time, progress vas made on tvo new tvo-cngine transports, thend the An-2lt, which are designed tond U6 passengers, respectively, for short distances and willsupplantCoach) and the Production of all types of high-performance transports In the USSR more than doubledrimarily through tho use of production facilities formerly engaged in production of bombers. Concurrent developments vere the premature addition of high-performance transports to tbe civil inventory before the completion of endurance testing of key components and equipment, the construction of modern airfields with adequate terminals and maintenance facilities, and the Installation of up-to-date communications systems-
In spite of the many problems associated with the uneven developoent of civil aviation in the USSR, both the Improved Tu-IOAB and8 (Coot) were introduced on regularly scheduled operationsExperimentol use of theCat) on some passenger flights pointed to ita Introduction on scheduled service early The largest cocsercial aircraft developed in the USSR, theade its first appearance In Western airspace By the end of the year the USSR made tbe first deliveries ofo Communist China. Initial deliveries oflS to Czechoslovakia early0 and the announced plans of othertea to utilizeoreshadow rapid changes In the inventories of most civil air carriers of the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
The 1repinenee of extensive use of high-performance transportthroughout the Sino-Soviet Bloc9ew impetua to programs for development of elr facilities. Although development of this type vas not pursued with the same intensity as the program for production of aircraft, Bone, progress vas made, particularly in the European Satellites.
The most rapid extension of domestic air services lo the Sino-Soviet Bloc9 took place In the USSR, where route distance ofservices increasedm. Thereeneral curtailment of domestic services In the European Satellites, and In Coanaunist China an intensive effort to expand the domestic route network apparentlyany serious efforts to expand services outside the Bloc. There was some Improvement9 in the quality of passenger service, but
Bloc airlines remalnod unreliable and inefficient by Western atandarde. Although some Bloc airlines operated certain international routesrofit, apparently each Bloc airline sustained substantial financial losses on Its total operations
A noteworthy developotent in the Sino-Sovlet Bloc9 was the closer coordination of the civil air network. ubccasUttee on air transport under the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CEMA) held its first meeting ln Moscow in The aesumption byf the coordination of air operations led for the first time to full Soviet participation ln the solution of problems lo intra-Bloc aviation. Observers from Communist China and Mongolia alto attended thla meeting. The new subcommittee considered such fundamental problems asof air traffic regulations, regulations for Jet and turboprop flights, and the development of air traffic on International routes.
The expansion of International air operations by the carriers of the Sino-Soviet Bloc waslower pace9 than Theof such operations within the Bloc was focused on completion andof air servicec capitals. The only new route established was fron Peking to P'yongyang. Improved International service within tho Bloc also was obtained by the allocation of Jet and turboprop aircraft to the air routes connecting many Bloc capitals.
The most significant addition to Slno-Soviet Bloc operations in the Free World9he seaiweekly service between Moscow end London that began in May. The Moscow-London route became the first International route outside the Bloc on which the II-id vas flown. The only other international connection outside the Bloc added9et service from Prague to Bombay via Cairo. Air agreements were negotiated with several Free World countries, including agreements between Communist China and Ceylon, Hungary and Switzerland, andand the United Arab Republic (UAR).
Although there was not the same rate of increase In international flight activities9 as In the years immediately preceding, the Sino-Sovlet Bloc continued to exert pressure on the countries of the Free World to enter into negotiations leading to commitments forof service. Internal Bloc developments ln modernizing air facilities and increasing inventories of high-performance aircraft alsoood groundwork for rapid expansion. Late ln the year the USSR launchedairly extensive program for the saleircraft to Free World countries. Many of the small Bloc carriers achievedsuccess ln negotiating interline agreements with Western
carriers. The Intensive efforts of the USSR and Ciechoslovakla to obtain overflight or transit rights frcei Greece are of particular importance. Successful negotiation of such rights willajor step toward eliminating some of the remaining barriers to more active air operations by Bloc carriers in the Kiddle Rest, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
Thus the inventory of high-performance aircraft continues to build up in tbe USSR while the degree of utilization remains far lower than that of Jet and turboprop aircraft in the USa situation thata period of hesitancy following the failure of developments on the ground as well as in engines and other components of the aircraft and In the training of crews to keep place with production of aircraft. It is likely that efforts are being made to bring these lagginginto line and to expand domestic operations before exerting major pressures to obtain more international routes, particularly because suitable facilities for the moat part also are lacking ln the Sino-Soviet Bloc outside the USSR. In the meantime the USSR can gaintraining and experience. Because of its size the civil air fleetotential emergency air lift that Is auxiliary to the military services and is capable on abort notice of0 or more armed troops or an equivalent weight of equipment and supplies.
Current Soviet policy Is directed toward making air travel more convenient and cheaper than "aoft-seat" railroad accommodations on trips of 5OO nilea or more and ultimately toward bringing the price down still further so that the railroads willigh percentage of intermediate and long-distance travel to the civil air fleet. moreover, can reach many places In the remote portions of the USSR that have no rail connections. By providing links across the USSR that connect countries on each side of Its borders, the USSR hopes eventually to compete successfully with Free World airlines, which are now obliged to follow longer courses around the Slno-Soviet Bloc and to adhereate schedule that has been agreed on. The USSR also plans to develop routes across Africa and into South America, primarily to serve lta own interests in penetrating the less developed countries of these continents. Finally, Aeroflot willependable medium for shipping valuable lightweight Items, spare parts, equipmentat remote localities, and high-speed freighteneral character bound over long distances.
A. Domestic Developments 1. Auninistration
Inajor reorganization took place in theof the Main Administration of thc Civil Air Fleet of the USSR.
Marshal Pavel F. Zhlgarev waa succeeded as Chief toy Colonel General Yevgeniy F- Loglnov, and Marshal Semen F. Zhavoronkov was succeeded as First Deputy by General Nikolay I. Tsibln. Several other top officials also were removed, but an important figure. Colonel Viktor M. Danlly-chev. Chief of the Administration for International Air Communications, was retained.
The only Soviet comment on the administrative shiftsthe deposed management of utilizing funds of Aeroflot to obtain favorable consideration fron Coomunlst Party leaders assigned tocivil aviation. Although this statement may reflect the actual reason for the shifts, Aeroflot did not appear to be well organized in Its approach to its recent program of expansion. Thereistinct lack of coordinated planning for the acceptance and introduction of new aircraftarked lag in the development of modern air facilities and services.
Whatever the reason for the change in management, no drastic shifts in policy were noticeable in the second half The energies of the present leadership probably have been directed toward the correction of deficiencies in the Il-ld and then order to establish these aircraft on regularly scheduled domestic androutes.
2. Performance and Operations
Annual increases in terms of both passenger-kilometers and freight ton-kilometers flown9 were the greatest yet attained in the USSR. On the basis of an announced increase of VJ percent above .thatt is estimated6 billion passenger-kilometers were flown Performance In freight and mall ton-kilometers is estimated to haveillion, an increase of aboutercent above that inas shown in Such large increases were due to the introduction into service of improved Jet and new turboprop aircrafteneral policy of reduction of faros. The increases in performance achieved9 were considerably in excess of the average annual rate of growth of aboutercent needed to meet the estimated target of kj billion passenger-kilometers5 (sec the chart.
On many routes thc new high-performance aircraft arewith average passenger load factors that are extremely high-The six Tu-lOl* aircraft scheduled in each direction daily on the Ienin-grad-to-Moscov route ore reported to have an average passenger load
ollows on p.ollowing p. 6.
factor5 percent. Traffic density on this route is five tinea that The Trans-Siberian services from Moscow and Leningrad to the Soviet Far East also were well patronized, and by9 seven flights daily in each direction wore operated on these routes One observer has estimated that Aeroflot waG running its mainline *
domestic flights during tho summer months with an average load factor
Civil aviation operations in the USSR are characterizedeasonal decline in traffic that occurs during the winter months. To counteract this loss ofystem of fare concessions was instituted during February and March, and even greater reductions were made in These wintertime concessions are in addition to the general lowering of rates that Aeroflot has been using to aen-eratc air traffic and to divert much of the long-distance roil travel to air carriers. Thc general effect of this rate policy vas to reduce Soviet domestic air rates In the summer9 to betveenndopecks*jar^passenger-kilometer. The special wintertime concessions in9 gave additional reductions on the longer hauls of up toercent. esult, the rate per passenger-kilometer betveen Moscow and Khabarovsk, for example,* kopecks. This rate vas somewhat lover than the first-class rail rate and about throe times the hard-seat" rail rate.
Nearly all air passenger travel in the USSR9 was tourist class. The fev first-class runs were all on international
In view of the sizable increases In traffic it Is not surprising that travelers' reports on operations of Aeroflotto describe them as undependable and disorganized. Although the operations of Aeroflot may appear to be somewhat chaotic to the Western observer, apparently they have been carried oneasonable safety record. There havo been indications, however, that as many as three high-performance aircraft vere involved in crashes on domestic flights curing thc year. No crashes of Soviet commercial aircraft onflights were reported Accidents, of course, are treated as classified Information.
One hundred kopecks equal one ruble. Ruble values throughoutare expressed in current rubles and may be converted toat the rateubles to This rate of exchange,does not necessarily reflect the dollar value. orefares wouW te at Lhc rate ofubles to
tyg ojt li -S
3. Inventory and Typea of Aircraft
9 the Inventory of high-performance aircraft held by the Soviet civil air fleet wan greatly expanded (aa ohown innd Initial operation of the Il-l8 ln passenger service was begun. ThecB, which willassengers, also was Introduced to service for the first tine. Theas virtually abandoned, and theCamp)theCub) went exclusively to the Soviet Air Force. Thes undergoing further testing before enteringservice and probably is being used in freight operations during these tests. Toward the end of the year, production of theery low level, leaving the emphasis In high-performance aircraft on turboprop aircraft that, although slower than jet aircraft, are better suited to landing and taking off on sod airfields with short runways.
USSR: Inventory of Civil Aircraft Held by9
Thelagued: with engine trouble, ond tbeith an unsatisfactory vertical stabilizer, vere prevented from entering passenger service until veil At the end of the year theas still not operated in regularly scheduled service. The Tu-lia also vas reported to be having technical difficulties from unduly rapid wear on the gears activating the counterrotating pro-pollerB, and the propellers themselves seemed to need frequent
While these difficulties were being Ironed out, theof high-performance transport aircraft in the USSR rose. This number of planeB includes considerable unused capacity, forf these aircraft vere observed in activeduring the year. In spite of this apparent excess capacity, thendontinue to be produced in relatively large numbers. The USSR, moreover, is developing another type of high-performance transport aircraft, the The latter has been reportedvo-engine Jet aircraft capable of transporting UO passengers at speeds of upilometers (km) per hour. This aircraft is to be used for short-range to intermediate-range service (upiles) and vas expected to be ready for service in the spring The* is now undergoing flight testing.
i*. Expansion of Routes
The USSR9 provided servicecheduled routes of national importance with an estimated lengthm, as shown Inutotal network0 km. Installations of high-performance aircraftumber of piston engine aircraft for the beginning of service on shorter and less densely traveled routes.
* ollovs on* Following p. This map does not show the newly established route between Moscow and Providenlya.
Subsequently, the doaeetic route distance of Aeroflot wasby several thousand kilometers In Siberia and the Soviet Far EaBt, including the assumption of several routes formerly flown by the Polar Aviation Service. Scheduled service betveen Moscow and Providenlya,top at Anadyr, was estsblished In The greatest part of the expansion, however, may be expected to reflect theof regular service on medium-distance internal routes that either were new or had previously been flown as an intermittent feeder service (aee the map.
USSR: Length of Scheduled Routes of National Importance Operated by Aeroflot SelectedO-59
5- Air Facilities
9 the USSR continued to work toward the goal of the Seven Yearor the modernization or initialofirports on mainline civil air roulee. It is estimated that these airfields will require an Investment ofillion rubles plus hOO million rubles in addition for electroniclutounlcationG oquipment. Of tho several airports under con-
on, only those at Simferopol' na! ^creffiet'yevo/MoBcov seem to hev'j been completed at the end of the yenr while construction of ocuis underway at Kiev, Irkutsk. Vladivostok, and otherials, military fields are bcine, -j by Aeroflot.
Passenger facilities are etui primitive in many locations,ock of adequate communications facilities causes frequent delays
vemeot of aircraft. Inewly instituted serviceking in passengers at Uic temjnnl in the center of the cityK ihem by special bus directly lo the aircraft. imilar- planned for Leningrad and Kiev
I ii U'motional Dcvclo]niwn'.
: Ji'.ternatlonal Network
By the beglnnirig ol'iofhrt services had beenhed between Moscow and all thcof the Sino-Sovlet Bloc
with the exception of Hanoi, Horth Vietnam. One major emphaale in Intra-Bloc 'international operatlono9 was on the Improvement of service through the allocation of Jet or turboprop aircraft to several routes. Semi weekly service by Tu-lOU between Moscow and. Pekingdaily service between the two capitals by slower aircraft. Ineekly through service using Tu-loVs was started between Moscow and P'yongyang. In the European Satellites, Jet or turboprop service was inaugurated on the routes from Moscow toand Sofia. At the enderlin and Warsaw were the only Bloc capitals not serviced by Jet or turboprop aircraft.
Cities of Western Europe connected with Moscow by air at the beginning9 included the capitals of Austria, Belgium,Prance, Finland, the Ketherlonde, Sweden, and Yugoslavia. Other international connections existed with the capitals of India,and Egypt.**
Tho only new international service inaugurated between the USSR and the Free World9 was that between London and Moscow, shared by British European Airways (BEA) and Aeroflot, with each line providing two round trips per week. In this service the USSRuseds, and, the UK used'o. In9 the USSR substituted8 for theirial basisbecause construction limitations at the Copenhagen airport made it impractical to use thei. ew weeks, however, the Tu-lOft's were again in operation on the London to Moscow service.
The USSR appears to be having reasonable succeBB in its international flights outside the Sino-Soviet Bloc. The weekly service to Nev Delhi has been very successful, vith an average passenger load ,factor ofercent, and in0 the number of flights between Nev Delhi and Moscov was to be doubled. It is probable that an average passenger load factor ofercent vas attained on Soviet international fllghtB to the Free World. This factorlightly below thatto be profitable by Western carriers.
Measures to increase international traffic also vereby the USSR at the endmong them are proposals to waive air transit visas and to perform consular services free.
* Sec the map. Figure 3, following
Few formal negotiations for new international routes were undertaken by the USSR Soviet economic activities in less developed countries ouch aa Iraq, and Ethiopia, however, apparently will include attempts to obtain air connections.
MaHi+boost to Soviot penetration of new areas a! r, ! v "with Greece permitting overflights by Aeroflot can be negotiated successfully. Hitherto the barrierby Greece, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan has restricted theexpansion of Soviet civil air operations. Negotiation ofrights would save theonsiderable detour through Albania on the Cairo run and also would facilitate the utilization ofor nonstop service on this route.
... VSS made 9 In the long-awaited Soviet attempt to Inaugurate service between Moscow and New York. In spite of official enthusiasmoute to New York, the USSR took notoward actual negotiations. One probable reason for this delay was that the USSR wished to wait until the mechanical problems asso-elated with theere solved. Another reason was the traditional reluctance of the USSR to grant transit rights across its own territory. It is probable that the Scandlnavlaa countries will ask for such rights reciprocallyervice between Moscow and New York transiting their airspace is negotiated. The problem of reciprocal rights also arises in prospective negotiations with Indonesia. In this case the problem is to persuade India to grant "beyond" rights to the USSR withoutrights for an Air India service between New Delhi and London.
3- Sales of Aircraft
The USSR has yet to sell any high-performance aircraft to SiTJS XaTJ^ovlet Bloc. Byttempts to sell ^'JS had^ec abandoned,airly aggressive campaign to selllaunched. In the last quarterhree orere sold to Ccranunlst China, and fives vere ordered by Czechoslovakia. Approaches also were made to many non-Bloc countries, theelgium, India, Iraq, Japan, Mexico, and
tioned for these aircraft have ranged from
USillion to about USillion, with terms and extras not clear. Based on Soviet practice with thet Is probable that final offers particularly If at bargain prices, win be tied to attempts at economic penetration of less developed countries or to the eventualof airline services betveen such countries and the USSR. It is possible, however,umber of sales will be madeurely commercial basis. The USSR apparently has Inventories of high-performance aircraft in excess of its needs, so that sales of these aircraft will help to make room for subsequent, improved types or for new aircraft. Such sales also will reduce the cost ofarge reserve park.
The major Soviet sale of piston aircrafthe delivery ofl-lVs to Indonesia in the spring.
III. European Satellites
development of civil aviation in the9 was confined almost exclusively to measures inTor the receipt of high-performance aircraft. In terms of performance, no Satellite airline made impressive gainshe domestic and international route structures of the Satellite civil air carriers are shown on the map. Data on the passenger performance of thc major civil air carriers of the European Satellitesre shown in Table k
European Satellites: Passenger Performance pf Civil Air Carriers
Boat Germany b/
b. Domestic service only.
In an effort to prepare for Jet and turboprop aircraftalmost all of the European Satellites undertook extensiveof airfield construction or modernization Bulgaria announced the Improvement of two civil airfields at Sofia and Vama Both alrrields are to be capable of takinget andurboprop aircraft. The construction of these new air facilities in Bulgaria will give the coordinated Sino-Sovlet Bloc civil air networkbases for operations into the Black Sea area and the Middle East.
Following p. 1U.
Program-for improvement of airfield! in CzechoslovakiaIn the completion offoot runway at Moznov and plans for the addition offoot runway at Praguc/Ruzyne. of this construction will give Czechoslovakia two alrfleldo capable of handling the largeet Jet aircraft now active in civil aviation. Airfield* of similar standards have been developed or are In process at Schcenefeld In East Berlin and at Mczokovesd inand Okecle, the civil airfield at Warsaw, is being modernized to handle smaller Jet aircraft such as the Comet *.
Plans to add several high-performance aircraft to current inventories of the civil air carriers lo the European Satellites were announced9 (eee Table Inauguration of service with these aircraft was deferred0 because at the end9 only Czechoslovakia had received any high-performance transports. Delivery of tvo of the fives that Czechoslovakia had on order was mode early a used in domestic service vill fly the route fron Prague to Bratislava. Hungary announced9 that it vlll be flying80 and plans to obtains as porturchase of six turboprop aircraft from the USSR. East Germany also announced that It vould operateeut no details os the number involved vere made known. It ia notable that Poland, vhlch8 most actively sought to purchase Jet andaircraft from the West, does not intend to have high-performance aircraft In operational service Poland apparently has decided to use Soviet rather than Western-built high-performance air-
B. International Developments
Only tvo new internationalere flown by Europeancarriers The Hungarian carrlor began providing some of the service from Budapest toervice that previously bad been provided by Aeroflot exclusively. In Augustew service to Bombay via Cairo. The implementation of this route puts the Czechoslovaks in competition with the USSR on service to both Egypt and India.
eries of bilateral agreemcnto was negotiated,for service on certain routes over which service has not yet been provided. Included were agreementservice from Sofia toervice from Budapest to Geneva,ervice from Budapent to Peking. Czechoslovakia announced its intention to seek an extension or Its Prague-Cairo-Bombay service to Indonesia. The Czechoslovaks also announced8 aircraft vill be used in routes from Prague to London, Paris, Beirut, and Baghdad.
ollows on p. lfc.
Passenger traffic ln the Cormnuniat Far East can be estimated only for the airlines of North Korea and. China, as ahovn In Toble 6.
Comnunlet China and North Korea CiTil Air Passenger
Coemunlot China North Korea
In Conmrunlat China the main emphasia9 vas on theexpansion of regional air networks started This programm tom' route system established The object of regional development has been to connect more remote areas to the national or provincial capitals. This program, moreover, hoepriority over the expansion of International services.
Communist China was the first member of the Slno-Soviet Bloc toircraft from the USSR At leaot three of these aircraft were delivered during the last quarter, and additionalare anticipated The Inventories of the remaining countries ln the Ccmmninist Far Eaat consisted mainlyfc andircraft, and no plans were announced for any significant changes ln these inventories0 (see.
The beginningomestic North Vietnam civil airline wos pushed along by the receipt in9 of ltafc aircraft. This plane, manufactured In East Germany, with others of the same type, will enable North Vietnam to carry out its announced plans forof cew air routes.
B. International Developments
The only expansion of International flights occurring In the Communist Far Easthe Initiationeciprocalfrom Peking to P'yongyang, formerly flown In segments by Aeroflot and the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC).
Communist Far East: Inventory of Civil Aircraft as of9
Communist China a/ North Korea North Vietnam Mongolia
*T The Chinese Communistsdditional smaller aircraft used on regional lines and for special services, consistingero-V5 aircraft.
The Chinese Communists did negotiate an air agreement with Ceylon, but they have announced that they do not intend to implement this agreement for atears- The explanation given is the preoccupation of the Chinese vith the expansion of their domestic air network. The receiptircraft, however, may mean that the Chinese may make further ventures outside tho airspace of the Sino-Soviet Bloc earlier than they have announced.Original document.