CURRENT IKTELLICEhCE WBBKLY REVIE*0
growing counterrevolu-tion.ii/ violence lo Cuba,symptomatic ofopposition, does not at tbls point seriously threaten tbe Castro regis*. groups areinto eutually antagonistic factions and lack leaders withpopular appeal. Theapture of two guerrilla Calender*umber of their Tollower* in the Escanbray
Mountains of La* Villas Provinceharp setback for the counterrevolutionaries. These men and others captured in Orients Proviso* wore tried promptly. Sixteen, including one American, were executed onctober.
On the other hand,ctober offficers Imprisoned .since last November is an important psychological blow for tbe regime. Thesewere associated with the popular antl-CoB&unist Major Huber Matoe,lose associate of Fidel Castro's who was denigrated andear ago. They =ay eventually! form tbo coreighting groupenuine popular following. The government^ e_ concern is indicated in" *eTemmmmmmT*mmwmVor<ici"n8 prison authorities on the Isle of Pines to strengthen the guard.
In Oriente Province, whereew of last week's small band of "Invaders" remain at large, there are reports ofby armed forces elements and militia personnel, who have apparently taken tontigovernmentoperations. Some of th defections are conf
The Cuban petroleumforced to shut downat the nationalised Esso refinery becausehortage in the catalyst used in theprocess, received eight carloads of the materialctoborompany ln the United States. Plans -were made to reactivate the refinery,cheduled rationing ofproducts was indefinitely postponed. However, when two of the carloads were tested, the material was found to ba adul-
tion, the Industry will have no usable catalyst, since theimports were mixed with tho lastons of good stocks before tbe initial tests were run.
Cuba has received what are probably Its second and third major shipments of Soviet bloc military equipment, and further shipments are expected. The Soviet vossel Sergey Kirov began unloadingons of
ll port nllos west of Bavanactober, Because of tbe
ship's loading-port and
snipment is believed to be tuvi> teriel. Preliminary reports
indicate that the cargo includes very large crates, some of which have been moved to an air base. MIO fighters, tanks, and other armaments have been reported ln the cargo.
The Klkolay Burdenkoln Bavanactober, and there Is strong evidence that itargecargo. ourth ship, the Atkarsk, is expected to arrive In Cuba aboutctober, Itargo ofons, of which atonsilary equlpoent.
The Cuban-BulgarianagreSBont signedctober was thesuch agreement concluded by Cuba this yearlno-Sovlet bloc country. Bulgaria agreed to buy at 0 tons of Cuban Sugar annually for the next five years and to inoraase its purchases of other Cuban products. rotocol on scientific and culturalwas also signed, and the two countries agreed todiplomatic relations on the embassy levsl.
A nembor of the Hungarian trade mission how back lnafterommercial agreement wltb Cuba onei tember implied,
seTKvuDab sugar to the West--contrary to the assurances Cuba usually obtains in its bloc
The US Embassy has recieved an unevaluated but plausible eport on current thinking alth-In high Cuban Communist circles. Communist leaders are Bald to estimate tbat Cuba will boto allltary attack by tbe United States early next year. The Cuban Communists,0 nenbera of the mllitls, would have tbe mission of fighting to tbe end and causing tbe greatest possible chaos for a* looi possible.
Of 20Original document.