CUBAN DEVELOPMENTS

Created: 8/4/1960

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CUBAN DEVEI.OPKENTS

Castro Is evidently under the care of doctors, but the extent of hie Illness is uncertain. Be remains theembodiment of the Cuban revolution to tho Cuban masses.

upon whom the regime has come increasingly to depend, and should his ictate that he step down, any likely interregnum or immediate successor would continue to rule In his nano.

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IMMEDIATE INTEREST

AND COMMENTS

CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM RELEASE AS SANITIZED

Raulhas cut short his foreign tour--vould bo at least tbo nominal head of any immediate successor or carstaker reglajs.

There aro Indications that Fidel Castro's authority In the governnoDt nay have beenreduced in recent seeks and tbat tbe pro-Communist clique headed by the ambitious and hard-driving "Che" Guevara may have gained correspondingly ln power. Guevara, whose administrative abilities contrast sbarply wltb Castro's own disorganizedof governing, has become the virtual tsar of Cuba's state-directed economy and exertsInfluence in other areas ofsually reliable source with high-level contacts in the regime reported in late July that Guevara had replaced Castro's bodyguard* with his own personal guards. Concern over Castro's present stato of mind Is given as the reason for Guevara's reported actloo, which ln effect would makerisoner.

President Dortlcos, aCommunist who has never re-Canted, has shown himself totronger personality than bis figurehead status would Imply, and he would become an even more influential figure if Fidel Castro should temporarily or permanently leave power.

The Argentine and Brazilian ambassadors la Havana--who bave shown themselves unusually astutebecoming convinced that Caetro has become, lnrisoner, ersonal friend of Castro's, reached thatafter meeting onuly with the Cuban premier

Meanwhile, the Caetro regime is faced with growing problemsuEber of fronts. Though serlojs petroleum shortages do not appear Imminent, earlycould comehortage of refinery spare parts andlubricants. Soviet oilto date have not been sufficient to meet normal Cuban denand, but wltb carefulsupplies should betoerious oil shortage.

Scheduled deliveries on both Soviet and free-worldreveal that oil shipments ln August will considerably exceedoss delivered in mmmmmmVJmwmmmWmmmamaP

Cuban air bases have boen under

orders since early July todally fuel stock reports.

Two caval bases reported InammT VmmmmVHmmTheir supplies

stod.

Bombings and shootings aro oa the rise ln Havana, and '

ms1numerous orders for the arrest of "counterrevolutionaries* and investigation of aots of sabotage. ource with contacts ln government circles reported la late July that the government has become awareonspiracy ln the aired forces and isthe opportune moment tothe conspirators.

Oa tbe International front, the virulent attacks on other hemisphere governments delivered

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLYugust -WO

"Che" Guevara and other* during the Communist-dominated Lai in Anerlcan Youth Congress have further aroused otber Latin American governments against the Cuban regime. Venezuela, for Instance, Is formally protesting Guevara's description ofBetancourt as the "prisoner of his government'a forces of repression." The Cuban charges may have repercussions at the forthcoming meeting of th* OAS foreign ministorn Id Costa Blca. After convening onugust to discuss Venezuela'salnst the rrujlllo dictatorship, tho foreign minister* are to consider th* danger* to the inter-Aoerlcan system pond by Cuba's increasingly close ties with the Slno-Sovlet bloc.

Uexlco, seeking toharp clash In the OAS on this subject, has son at least initial Braslllan and Canadian supportoint offort to "mediate the dispute betvoeR Cuba and tho Uniteduch an-effort would appeal to some hemiapher* governments such as Chile, butArgentina,and Peru and tost of the Central Americanto support the United States' view that OAS action Is necessary to deal with the Cuban problem, sine* it ia morsuban-US diei>uto andirect challenge to the loter-Aaerlcaa system, for which all OAS^jem-

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PART II

IMMEDIATE INTEREST NOTES AND COMMENTS

Bage t

Original document.

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