NIE 13-2-60 - THE CHINESE COMMUNIST ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM

Created: 12/13/1960

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l)

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE

NUMBER

THE CHINESE COMMUNIST ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM

THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS CODE WORD MATERIAL

-.si:by tht DIRECTOR OF CBNTHAL INTEEUOKNCK Tht following tntttltgtnet orgonUatloru parUctpattd In tht preparation ot thu estimate: Tht Central Inltllloinct Agency, tht national Senrtty Agtnep, and tht tnttlUgtntt orgonBo-tfcwu tt tht DepoHmtnit ot Sttlt. ththt Mtot. tht Atrht Jotnl tug. Detente, tnd thtg.

CommUHon

o tht UKTKD BTATEB DfTEUJOENCE BOARD

onecember list. Concurrlito utre Tht Director of Inttl-licence and Research, Department ot State; tht mmmtkmt Chief ot Stag for initat^net. Department ot thtbl AuUtant ChUt ot Naval Ow'atfcwu for MeZUtHmee.of tht .Htxrp; tht Auuttnt Chief of Staff, IntttHaenze.ht Dtrtetee for tnjttmjemet, Tht Jointiiuttnt to tht Stertttrt of Defense, Special Operations: tht Atomic Cmras Commlulon Reeretentatlvt tu th* USIB; end tht Dtrector of the national Steviitp Aptnty. Tht AnUt-ant Director. Ftdtral Buret* ol InvttUgatUn, abstained, tht noted being outsWi the ftrtidtrUcm of hit Agency.

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White] HsUoaal Security Council Department of State Department of Defense Operations Coordlnouns; Board Atwntr Fncrgy Commission Federal Bureau of Investigation

national intelligence estimate

THE CHINESE COMMUNIST ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM

0

This eithnaff miand anted upon byommit Ut. which Is eompottdot tht DtportmtnU of Stttt.t. iht* Cammtukm, TUAmmtt. nnd tht Central mum-

t*nti Aomc, Itt mvroontU footnotes, homtttr, K* in-sentO* tUmt Tht TBI tbttaWtd,cf eetnp owtmU

of Ut ttsU*tKtton

Tht tiUmtli. with footnotti,prottd bt tht UlUUd Stotf InWhgtnct move on II Dtetmbtr iHO.

TABLE OF ILLUSTRATIONS

Page

Tabic 1 Some Elements of the Second Ministry of Machine

6

Figure 1 Organisation of the Chinese Communist Atomic

Energy 7

rganization of the Institute of Atomicigure 3

Figure 4 Research Reactor and Cyclotron Building of the

IAE,6 10

Figure S Research Reactor at the IAE,0

Figure 6 The lAE'sev Cyclotron, Pelping,

Figure 7 LohBueb Shan Observatory for Coamlc RayLohsueh7 11

Figure 8 Multiplate Equipment for Coamlc Ray Research at

Lohsueh Shan1

Figure 9 The IAE Research Establishment,3

Figure 10 ev Betatron Designed and Built ot Tslnghui

University,8

Table 2 Major Items of Nuclear Physics Researchin Communist

Figure 11 Examples of Electronic Equipment Built by the

Chinese, Pelping,

Figure 1! Chinese-produced Radioactive Deep-well Surveying

Figure 13 Radlocobalt Unit for Medical Therapy, Shanghai,

13

Figure 14

Table 3 Estimated Chinese Communist RecoverableUranium Metal

Figure 15 Soviet Organisations Connected with the Chinese

Communist Atomic Energy

the chinese communist atomic energy program

the problem

To determine the current status and the probable future course of the Chinese Communist atomic energy program to

summary and conclusions

ommunist China is energeticallyher native capabilities In the field of atomic energy. Since the early lflWi she hu beenoncerted effort to develop the corps of scientists and technicians andthe research faculties essential to theol nuclear energy. The over-allhas progressed steadily5 with the benefitubstantial amount of Soviet aid. This assistance has been obtained by the Chinese Communists via negotiated, formal arrangements under which tbey apparently haveonsiderable degree ofHowever, we behave that tbe Soviei* have provided this eldeliberate pace.

hoping to postpone the attainmentative Chinese nuclear weapona capability as long

as possible.

ORGANIZATION

ontrol of the Chinese Communist military atomic energy program and direction of much of tbe total atomic energy program isvested tn the Second Ministry ofBulldltifhich wastnhis ministry Is probably patterned after Its 8ovle>the Ministry of Medium MachineThe peaceful uses aspects of thecovering nuclear research, training, uid isotope applications, are largely under the control of tbe Scientific and Technological Commission of the State Council, with tbe Institute of Atomic Energy of the Academy of Sciences as the most prominent research es-UMIshment.

TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES

he Chinese Communists havemall but highly competent cadre of Western-trained Chinese nuclear specialists Their nuclear research effort has expanded rapidly since Ihend more than twenty nuclear research facilities have beenal institutes and universities, lnlo the Soviet-supplied research reactor and cyclotron, thereariety ofand other accelerators, most of which are cf Chinese manufacture. The Chinese have access, through the Joint Institute for Nuclear Beeearen. to the large Sovietat Dubna China's share of tbecosts of tbe institute Ishare exceeded only by that of the Soviet Union. We believe that the widespread Chineseand research effort Is coordinated to the needs of the military atomic energy program. Tbe Chinese Communists are now capable of comprehending and exploiting the large body of open scientific literature in tbe nuclear sciences. However, the present shortage of

trained scientist* and engineers will probably persist throughout the period of this estimate. This ihortage would hamper Chinese efforts to design, construct, and operate facilities for the production of fissionable materials and would be particularly serious, should thedecide lo reduce or terminate theiraid

UUM OW PRODUCTION

uring thehe Chinese Communists, with some Soviet aid,umber of areas for uranium resources.5 this quest lor uranium, as well as the supporting Soviet aid, was intensified.

Sovlrt ore ccr.cenlralion plant design*for the Chinese7 were probably Intended tor the exploitation of these southern deposits and expansion of Sinkiang operations.

lthough we have no information on the actual grade* of the ore, we estimate lhat Communist China Is currently producing ore equivalent toons of recoverable uranium metal per veer (see Table, and3 will be capable of producing morehousand tons per year. We have no evidence that any Chinese Communistore hu been supplied to the USSR, and believe that It has all been retained foruse.

URANIUM MJTAl

that a

u-ani;im metal facility was constructed dur-

Ingeriod.

ACcwa-uranium

Ingly, we estimatehinese metal plant came into operation in'

FISSOSAtUE MATERIALS

hinese development of uranium resources and the construction of ore concentration and uranium metal plants certainly imply anuse for the uranium in plutoniumAlthough uranium metal Isroduction, the first stages of the process could also supply feedeparation. Planning and design ofmaterialscuities could have been In progress In China ai early

ft We estimateirst Chinesereactor could attain crtUcallty innd the first plutonium mightavailable late' Since there Is no conclusive evidence for the dale of the uranium plant startup, and since theof reactor and chemical separation facilities hu not been directly established, the actual start of plutonium production couldear earlier or several years later.

ossiblelant Is nowconstruction. Considering theof the developmental work and industrial support required for the construction of adiffusion plant, however, it is Improbable that the Chinese could producearlier than'

nuclear weapons

m the basis oi all available evidence, we now believe that the mast probable datehich the Chinese Communists couldm flnt nuclear device Is sometimehough It might be as later as earlyepending upon the actual degree of SovietI tbe SovieU provide fissionable materials, and assist tn the design and fabricationuclear device, thecoulduclear detonation in China at almost anytime in the Immediate future. On the other hand, if thereessening of Soviet assistance tn the nuclear fieldesult of current Sino-Sovietprogress would be substantially

tl. While the explosionuclear device would give the Chineae Communists political and propaganda rewards, they would almost certainly proceed to create an operationalcapability as quickly as feasible.at least two yean would irobably beafter the explosionuclear device tomall number of elementary wen pons.

'The Assistant chief of Staff, Intel licence.of the air force believes that tbe Chines* will pre booty detonate their first nuclear Oct Icel. and pcealbly as early aa HUbe irent perioral ravclteaasjteaL and nUJtary advantagee lo be aii.-rd arc such that Usewould accord top national priority inuclear an port* program, lieUse available evidence on the production schedule of uranium metal and fissionableto indicate that Inesa! plant starteduel element* for the production reactorelieved to have lone criticalhe first nuclear device will probably uae plutonium from this reactor. Finally, he Believe* that after late IM1 hlanlyS will be available for tececouent dev-oaa.

'For tlw view of the Assistant Chief of navalepartment of the Navy, see footnoteage IS.

NUCLEAR POWER

ince the Chinese nuclear programto be weapon-oriented, we believe that production reactors would b* -ivenover leactors designed lor nuclear power. Further, we do not believe that the Chinese would complicate the design of their firstreactors In an effort to extractpower. We estimate thai the Chinese will not construct nuclear power stations Ineriod.

SOVIET ASSISTANCE

Soviet assistance has been an important factor In the Cbinese atomic energy program. Under an agreement forhe Soviets have provided to theesearch reactor, cyclotron, technical assistance andlno-Sovlet Scientific and Technicalaa concludedther known Soviet aid has been largelywith uranium prospecting and the preparation ol designs for uranium oreand uranium metal facilities.

We have no firm evidence of SovietIn designing or constructing fissionable materials production faculties' or inthe materials or equipment needed for such production. [

here is some evidence that Soviet aid may have been curtailed. I

i reportseneral withdrawaloviet techtucJAns from China tookn

T0PJ&&E7

DISCUSSION

INTRODUCTION

Is ample evidence thatIs placing great emphasis onln Its quest for the scientific andstature essentialajor worldmajor related eflorte are beingvery high priority:

development of schools andrequired for the training ofengineers and the conduct otlo the understanding andof the nuclear wieners;

development of the scientificbase which would be neededdevelopment and production of

large body of Information Isthe Chinese quest for trainedand research faculties, and bowIs organised and controlledon their military atomic energyquits scanty; however, their large scaleof their uranium resourcesby key Chinese Communiststrong evidence that they Intend to de-

a native nuclear weapons capability.

IL HISTORY ANO ORGANIZATION OP THE CHINESE COMMUNIST ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM

OtSBBAL

ontrol of the Chinese Communistatomic energy program and direction of much of tbe total atomic energy program la currently vested In the Second Ministry of Machine Building (SMMB) (seehis ministry is probably patterned after its

Soviet counterpart, the Ministry of Medium Machine Building. The peaceful uses aspects of the program, covering nuclear research, training, and Isotope applications are largely under the control of Ibe Scientific andCcaruntaslon (STC) of Ibe State Council, with the Institute of Atomic Energy (IAE) of the Academy of Sciences as the most prominent research establishment

MruTaav Atome Exsmt PaooasM

voivement of the organisation of tbe military aspects of the Chinese Communist atomic energy program can be traced through several stages of development Earlykiespread activity by uranium prospecting/ mining units '

InUu

Chleh. the Deputy Minister of Geology and Deputy Head of the Third Bureau, waspone with whom Soviet atomic energyhina hai to deal, unthat Uu was tn over-all control of the program. In sridittcn, Liu headed the Chinese delegation to then Moscow which resulted in theby eleven Bloc countries, of the Joint Institute for NuclearINR) at Dubna. USSR. It Is evident that his atomic energy responsibilities were not limited to uranium procurement

nhe Third Ministry of Machine Building (TMMB) was established under General Sunghird ministry had been originally established in6 lo handle tbe manufacture ofand electric generators, but washi6 when its responsibilities were taken over by the Ministry of Power Equipment Industry. The functions of the new Third Ministry were not made public,]

TOPj^etrSi

rfr

nhe Chinese press an-nouneed that liu Chleh had been relieved of his duties in tbe Ministry of Geology and the Third Office of the State Council without mention of the reasons for his relief or of hb future assignment. It Is reasonableomparable position wiih the TMMB.

nhe TMMB was renamed the Second Ministry of Machine Building. We do not believe that this change In name represented any real change In th* nature or functions of the former TMMB This belief Is supported by an announcement tn thepress on IB9 that Uo Chieh was Deputy Minister of tbe 8MMB. and on0 he was appointed minister.

ome of the elements of the present SMMB have been Identified |

The First and Seventh Bureaus, referred to in the Chinese Communist press in7 as being under tbe TMMB, may have continued to function after establishment of theist of these elements is given ln Table 1.

OacANnurioM or Nucuab Kssiskk

J* Promotion of science was an announced policy of the Chinese Communist regime after Its takeovernd emphasis wasto nuclear studies from the outset. The new regime established the Chinese Academy of Sciences In9 (withoy reorganising andthe various institutes andof the Chinese Nationalist's Academla Sinlea and lb* National Academy ln Peiping. The new Academy's Institute of Modern Ptr -tea (later named tbe Institute of Physics andenamed tbe Institute of Atomicas assigned nuclearriority mission. The Chinese have slated that th* research program of this institute did not begin3 Inhey announced their intention ofth* Soviet Untoii for eld in their nuclear program,S, an agreement was signed under which tbe Soviets were toa research reactor, cyclotron, andassistance and were to train Chinese(see.

he nuclear research and training effort was intensified during the5he goals of scientific andolicy were clarified, local resources and cspobuitxs were surveyed, tbe necessary steps were taken toward set linguclear research organ iza-Uon,umber of basic research projects In nuclear science and technology were launched. The nuclear energy program wasurther boost with the completion of the research reactor and cyclotron at ineof Atomic Energy- Peiping in

nhe Stale Council of lhe CPB established the Scientific Planningcomposed of high-level scientific,party, and military members. Tbe commissionwelve Year Plan for. wherein stress was given to research In certain broad fields ofthe leading Beld to be atomic energy.

hinese nuclear research Is also being assisted by China's membership in tbe Joint InstituU for Nuclear Research (JINR) at

TOPJp&tZT

Table i

SOKE ELEMENTS OF THE SECOND MINISTRY OF MACHINE BUILDINO

hird Bureau

Sixtheventh Bureau Twelfth Bureau

December 1BS6 (Subordinate to Mm. of Geology) .October IBM (Subordinate to TMMB1,IBM (subordinate to SMMB!

IT July 1SSB

Par Chines* preaa, existed under TMMB

before it wai renamedofthroughout

China. engaged IP urMUum prcopecllnj

and mlnmi

As supplier of atomic energy related In-slrumenU

Per Cbinese press, exlited underefett It wae

an*Arln Municipal Chemical Industrytor the delivery ot deep-well water

USSR,hina's share of the financial costs of the Institutehare exceeded only by that of the Soviet Union.

urrently, the nuclear energy research and development program Is controlled and directed by two main bodies, the Scientific and TechnologicalC) and the Academy of SciencesSeehe STC Is the moat powerful organisation for controlling scientific research in Communist China. Formed8 by merger of the Scientific Planning Committee and the State Technological Commission, It supervises closely the cooperation and coordination ol research between the AS and cither researchThe Academy of Sciences is the chief organisation for research In Communist China (seeertainly, the mostnuclear research is carried out by the Academy's Institute of Atomic Energy's two locations In Peiping. We believe that the SMMB also exerts considerable influence in the area of nuclear research and training.

ore than twenty different installations for nuclear energy research have been(seend there is good reason to believe that the Chinese will continue to stress nuclear energy research through the establishment of additional facilities- Aol institutes of the AS, dealing with physics, chemistry, mathematics, geology, and electronics are known to be engaged In various aspects of the Chinese Communist atomic energy program.

III. TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES Nuclsmi Research

he Communist Chinese hate steadilytheir nuclear research effort since the. Principally under the IAE the

TOPSSeKEt

h

i

l[

Communisl Chinese, with varying degrees of Soviei assistance, have established more than twenty facilities engaged Inesearch In various parte of tht countryhe major Institute, located In the suburbs of Pelping (seeilesof the city, houses theW research reactor and theev cyclotronhe reactor uses two percent enriched uranium fuel and heavy vater as moderator. It has been one of the less successful examples of Sovietto the Chinese. Por nearly one and one-half years after the reactor became critical8 Its operations were suspended because ol mechanical difficulties

rigor* &

Research reactor at the TAB. Pelping. ISM

high energy physKs researchout at the Joint Institute farat Dubna, USSR. Nuclearhigh energy mesons and protons0 fclev synchrotron andMev synchrocyclotron, bubbleand Cherenkov counters.leader of th* Chinese scientists

at Dubna, and also Deputy Director of JINR, recently has been credited as being one of the

discoverersew nuclear particle, the antl-

slgma minus hyperon.

research In cosmic rayiepartment of the IAS.data are gathered at theObseivatory In Yunnan Province (see

risme s

Theot cyclotron.8

top secret

TOPJECiXET

ductedumber of other countries- This includes csuculaUons of energy levels, utilizing the shell-model concept, and studies of the Inter-actions of nueleons and theof fundamental nuclear particles.

ReilAPCK EeVtTMBYT

lthough the Communist Chinese havelarge quantities of laboratoryfrom tbe USSR, they have been quite successful in building scientific apparatus far their research. (Major items of nuclearequipment arc listed inhey have built two accelerators at tbe lAE'sabout eight miles northwest of Pelping,hich Is primarily concerned with theoretical nuclear physics and low energy acceleration. These machinesev electrostatic proton accelerator5 Mev Van de OraafT accelerator. Other native equipment inclodeeev cyclotron at the Physics Department of Southwest Normal Col legev cyclotron at Tientsinaev Indue-electron(betatron) at the Central Chinainstitute in Wuhan,ev lnduc-

Table

MA]OR ITEM8 OF NilCLEAR PHYSICS RESEARCH EQUIPMENT IN COMMUNIST CHINA

Padllty

lFactorccelerator

Accelerator

Ac cetera tor Accelerator Accelerator Accelerator Accelerator Accelerator

Accelerator Accelerator Accelerator Accelerator Accelerator Acetic re tor

FMIpWg ISWI Petplng INW1 Tientsin Pel|

Peiping (NW>

Tientsin Chungking Ch'engtu Peipiiie iwwi Peiping iNWt Peiping iNW)

Ptiplng (WW)

Tientsin

Canton

Milan

Lata (Dslren> Wuhan

W

Tslnghua.

Mank'nl University att...

TWngnoaHot..

rienisin1 Mar ..

Southwest NormtiMe*

Swehwan University ot

IAE ev

IAE S Mev

Peiping. SO Hot ..

PesplngMev

Nank'al

Chungshan University

ChlaMungMev

Institute ol PetroleumMev

Wuhan Atomic Energy

Supplied

Soviet Supplied

"Induction Electron

Cyclotron

Cyclotron

Electrostatic Proton Van de OraatT -Induction Electron

Cye letron"

iron Electrostatic ntctrosteUc Rotary Electrostatic Van de OrasrT

cyclotron at Tslnghua University in Peiping (sec.

lx Chines* have made eotisiderabk- prog-ress inroad capability toa wide range of neteaaary equipment for training young nuclear scientists and for supporting the nuclear research of theirand universities. An intensive effort has been made to provide from domesticufficient quantity of nuclear radla-

5 Me* betatron designed and bunt at Tslnghua University.8

Hon detectors, high grade emulsions,crystals, photomultiplier tubes andelectronic equipment (see Figureore recently, Chinese developments with pulse height analysers and micro-secondequipment might Imply future work In neutron Umc-of-flight studies or even inweapon development. By

TOP SECRET

ol electronic equipment bum 0/ uw

Chinese.

the Chinese could be as well provided with laboratory equipment for research In nuclear physics aa are the larger western European countries at the present time.

Mucins cmstumiv

tudies In nuclear chemistryumber or institutes of theof Sciences. The IAE is concerned with the producUon of radioactive Isotopes In the Soviet-supplied reactor, and with theof radioactive Isotopes in thereactor, and with the separation of stable Isotopes using the lon exchange method. The reactor reportedly has producedadioactive Isotopes, Includingndsotopes are being used in industry Inwith Chinese-produced gamma-ray instruments for detecting flaws in machinery: in geology, to detect types of rock and the geological formations of strata; in medicine, ln radioactive cobalt apparatus for treating tumors and cancer; and In agriculture, to improve fertilisation and cultivation of crops Academy of Sciencesother than lhe IAE, are conducting studies on reactor corrosion probiems,and thorium chemistry, and the separation of the rare-earths.1 was reported that Communist Chinese scientists hadpure uranium and thorium on ascale.

MAKrowea asm Tbsixrtc

hen the Communists came into power in Chinanly about ten scientists were engaged In nuclear physics research.ommunist China has made an intensive effort to train scientists and engineers In the

top

numbers necessary to support aatomic energy progruri, buildingore c( highly competent. Western-trainedevertheless. Use presentshortage of trained scientists and engineers willpersist tOnwghoot the period of theThis shcetag* would hamperflorts to design, construct, and operate fa-cniue* for lh* production of ftatonabie ma-tertala and would be particularly serious should the Soviets decide lo reduce ortheir technical aidisting of leading Chinese Communist nuclear scientists, f

NUCLEAR MATERIALS PRODUCTION Omnium Oax

nino-Soviet Non-Penou* end Rare Metals Stock Company waawith headquarters at Urumchl, for the development of resources including uranium in the Slnklang-Ulghur Autonomous Region.

lthaugh uranium deposits ot varying sire are known to existumber of areas throughout the CPR, very few specific mining locations are known. The Chinese are believed to be working two deposits In the Hatch'eng district of Uaonlng Province.

rcpori uranium prospecting and mining activity In the area. Chinese Communist openIndicates that the company was operated4 when It was dissolvedoint stock company. Apparently, SovietIn Chinese uranium problems conunued under different arrangements, however.

hinese uranium prospecting and mining units, to which Soviet geologists andwere attached (see Section Vii)

1 Until

hese units were subordinate

the

ia

is Known

the grade ot any of the Chinese ores-assuming that Ihe average grade permits economical mining operations,

Our estimate of Chinese Communist recoverable equivalent uranium metalfor the23 IsUi Tableelow.

igned and helped to constilot chemical

it In Pelping. 1

'The

Dxpeiuiienuu ln-tallatlon suggestsimilar urgency was attached to the construction of the larger ore concentration plants.

Cranium Metal

u wnonivt pun-Ilshed on sut))ecls rr'ated to both oreand uranium metal production have been noted atngshs Mlninf and fcaev aliurgical Institute.

ssuming the construction time required lo be two to three years, the uranium metal plant could have been completed9

Currently

Soviets dc-

ductkm Inhere is evidence ol atomic energy activity In the Ssechwan Basin, |

'thusossiblemaU-seale heavy water production program Is In progress in China.

un mis basis, wc estimate lhal a

Chinese uranium metal plant dune into opera-Hon Inrobably in the Ch'angsha area.'

Otrib Nuclea* Materials

ertain other raw materials, useful in an atomic energy program, have been noted in numerous sh 'pments from China to the USSR. Notable among these are large quantities of beryllium, lithium, and fiuorlte ores.niobium and tantalum ores have also been exported to Russia.

vidence that the Chinese produce other materials such as thorium, heavy water, graphite,hich have nuclear energySame of these products are now exported, but could be diverted to Internal use.

horium ekrpoalU have been reported at various sites hi China, but the moat likely areas appear to be in the Cialtamu Basin in Tsinghai province; kHsuinua. In Hunan province; Hainan Island; and near Paot'ou, to Inner Mongolia. Present Information does not permit an estimate of thorium production. In the past they have imported thorium, probably for non-nuclear uses, for example, theof gas man Ilea

hinese interest tn heavy waterwas Indicated by any Chlen San-chlang. Director of the IAE, lhat an analysis of heavy waterIn various waters had been made, and that the deuterium content of some oil field waters offered the most promise. Thethat Ihe Chinese may be following the Soviet practice of associating small heavy water production plants with nitrogenproducers ki indicated by Chinesethat tht SMMB has supplied various types of equipment for the Ssechwan Cbesdcalarge new nitrogen fertiliser plant located near Ctiengtu, which began trial pro

' For tbe view of lh* Assistant Chief of Staff,tro*nl of UM Air Force, secI, page S.

rom0 the Communist Chinese attempted to obtain from foreign sources many materials required In an atomic energyTht pure metals included uranium, thorium, beryllium, lithium, boron, and some of the less known rare earth metals.

quantities desired were initiallysometimes amounting to only abut hundreds of kilograms ofaa beryllium, cerium, and zirconiumby the Chinese int may well beChinese focussed their effort onof uranium metal and could noirequirements for supplementaryfrom domestic sources. Thenot be able to become self-sufficientproduction of supplementaryuntil tbe early tos.

FlBSIOKABtS: MATiaULS psobuctioj*

development of uraniumof ore concentration and uraniumstrongly implies an Intendedthe uranium In plutoniumuranium metal Is not requiredproduction, the first stages of thecould also provide feed material forSince provision for theseusers would ordinarily coincide withprecede that for the feed materialsand design of fissionablefaculties may have been lnChina as early

lutonium. We have no evidence of tbe planning or subsequent construction ofreactors. However, tbe lack of such evidence cannot be considered conclusive.

jpie wiping KeMBJjn hhciot, an oven project which must have required extensive correspondence with Moscow.

ur estimate of when the Chinese maylutonium capability must be based on the estimated startup date of the Chinese uranium metal plant.ear of uranium plant operation to perfect technology and to produce enough uranium tomall plutonium production reactor, reactor crlUcallty might occur innd the first plutonium might become available late* Since there la no conclusivefor tbe date of the uranium plantand since the construction of reactor and chemical separation faculties has not beenestablished, the actucl start ofproduction couldear earlier or several years later.

t is possiblenow under construction. In this case,shorter delay between feedand fissionable materialsbe effected Considering thethe developmental work and industrialrequired for the construction of aplant, however, It Is ImprobableChinese could produce highlyearlier than2

V. NUCLEAR WEAPONS

we have no conclusivehinese nuclear weaponsbelieve thatrogram exists andgiven priority by the Chinese- Wethat the Chinese wouldemonstration of theirto produce nuclear weapons wouldtheir claim to great power status.*believe that the Chinese Communiststheir nuclear weapons programrapidly as possible, success will dependmeasure upon the degree offrom the Soviets. Recentsuggests that the USSR maythe Chinese Communists moreleading toward the eventualof nuclear weapons than we hadcorisidered likely. However, wethat the Soviets have provided thisa deliberate pace, hoping to postpone the

' For the new of the Assistant Chief of Staff, in. telliaence. Department ol the Air Force,ace 3.

'lieunlon of Chlnne Incentfiei for aweapons pros ram seeo September IPSO.

attainmentative Chinese nuclearcapability aa long as possible.

SO. On the basis of all available evidence, we now believe thai the meat prcteblc dale al which the Chineae Ccenm unlet* couldirst nuclear device is sometimeS. though it might he as later aa earlyepending upon the actual degree of Soviet assistance."If the Soviets provide fissionable materials or assist In the design and fabricationuclear device, the Chinese coulduclear detonation in China at almost any time in the immediate future. On the other hand, If thereessening of Soviet assistance In the nuclear fieldesult of current Slno-SovletChinese Communist progress would be substantially retarded

fter the explosion of their first nuclear device, tbe Chinese would almost certainly proceed to create an operational nuclearas quickly as feasible However, at least two years would probably be required after the first teat tomall number ofweapons.

VI. NUCLEAR POWER

ha Chinese Communists announcedhat "atomic power stations would beowever, such stations were not in-

' Pes Us* dew of tba Assistant Caaet of Star bv Ulbience. Department of the Atr Force, see loot-note J. pat* S

"The Assistant Chltf of Naval Operations. Department of iha Mavy believes thai information on the nature and asf Soviet aid to Ccenmunli'. China la oa yet lr.TUffVi.nletsaeaa eatlraat* it Us* year lathe Chines* Common 1st* coulduclear savetaa. He cooCOm however, that certain basic information shook! have Become availaohi to us by thil time if the Chineae Communist*iimcerveaucstly produced nuclear djevloa very much befof* Use final stales of this Ava-yearnee pee of vhal he eonslders to be any evidence pertaiem* to or irsdscaUv* of theaf Bossonabk materials In Communist China aad tn IM ii(tt nf tbt rektOvtry ttoroentary Hale ofuclear research facilities,nable to accept Lb* tun* schedule for nuclear. .iasn this paper.

eluded tn the Second rive Year, and there Is no present evidenceower program Since the Chineae nuclear program appears to ba weapon-crlented. we believe that production reactors would ba given precedence over reactors designed for nuclear power. Further, we do not believe that the Chinese would complicate the design of their first production reactors In an effort to extract by-product power. We estimate that the ctlotse will not construct nuclear power stations Ineriod

VII. SOVIET ASSISTANCE TO THE CHINESE COMMUNIST ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM OS Soviet assistance has been an important factor In the CTuntae atomic energy program to date, ranging from participation Inprospecting and processing to the supplyesearch reactor and cyclotron. This aid has been furnished tinder formal contractual agrcemtnta under which the Chinese Cam-munis fa have apparently maintained adegree of autonomy.

number of Soviet

orguiiauticns nave participated in aid to the Chinese atomic energy program, Includinggroups from the Ministry of MediumBuildingheIn charge of the Soviet military atomic energy program The Soviet organisation* and their sub-units known to be parllclpaUng in the Chinese atomic tmcrpj program ehpwn[

| The USSR Chief Directorate (now caned State Committee) for Utilisation Of Atomic Energy (OLAVATOM) has carried out overt aid programs I-

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1 The Chief Dt-Vkmt

rcctorate or the Civil Air Fleet (OUFVF) of the Moscow AVIA group has conducted aerial prospecting surveys for the Chinese atomic energy programhe USSRof Sciences has furnished much of the known scientific research and trainingand may have assisted In Chinesefor rare metals.

he earliest Soviet participation In the Chinese atomic energy program was concerned with exploration for and exploitation ofresources. The Sino-Soviet Non-ferrous and Rare Metals Stock Company organised0 may have been Intended to develop ore resources for ultimate Soviet use. However, we have no evidence that Chinese uranium ore was ever supplied to tbe USSR, and at leasthen the company was dissolvedoint operation, the Chinese uraniumto have been Intended (or domestic use only. Soviet participation In the Chinese ore program has Included Held assistance as well as technical guidance. The degree of Soviet aid to the uranium ore productionapparently decreased after

here is some evidence that Soviet aid may curtailed. "

L general withdrawal TTOm China took place In

he Soviets have also assisted the Chinese by designing uranium ore concentration and uranium metal facilities. [

j The Bain body Ofappears to have been activemaller groupwith ore-processing technologyIn China as late aswas winding up its affairs.

and sterling the reactor and cy-clotron; and to aaalit In the design ot the scientific and experimental installation to house these pieces ot equipment; and

a. Supply the Chinese with fissionable and other materials tor the reactor and foe carrying out research in nuclear physics, train Chinese specialists In nuclear physics In the USSR and supply Soviet specL .ts to work In China.

n IB January IBM. after nearly ten weeks of negotiations In Moscowhinese sclen-tific delegationy Kun Mo-Jo, president of the Academy ofino-Soviet Scientific and Technical Agreement, covering th., was signed. None of the details of this agreement have been made known, yet It Is likely that certain aspects of Soviet aid to the Chinese Communist atomic energy program were provided for.

oviet specialists have also assisted the Chinese with the Installation of annlaailon chamber,olumeiters, filled with argon attmospheres, and screened2 cm layer of lead. Thiswhichift of the Soviet Union, was probably Installed at the Chinese Institute of Atomic Energy's location northwest offor the use of the Cosmic Rayof the Institute.

SIGNIFICANT RESEARCH FACILITIES

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IGNIFICANT RESEARCH FACILITIES

Chinett Vnlvtriity of Science andKUO Mo-Jo, who la also prerldent of lhe Chinese Academy of Sciences. The university is under Lhe Joint control of the Ministry of Education and the Academy of Sciences It was established in September 1KB to provide qualified scientists to staff the Institutes of the Academy of Sciences. It has IS departments, withemphasis on nuclear energy and related subjects. The original enrollmentents '

2 Department o] Phpsics, Nank'at Unttersitp, Tientsin, Hopei Province. In accordance withlan for Science, this university was to become one of the centers tor nuclear research, and was to be comparable with Leningrad University.n slat,and amount and quality of researchhe Physics Department, beaded by Professor CHIANG An-tssi hasmall homopeneous experimental atomic reactor with maximum permissible poweratts, in additionigh pressure electronic static electricity acceleratorev, anda beta spectrometer for the study of isotope properties and nuclear structure.

3 Beta* Atomic Energy Retearrh Center,Dr. CHTKN fssuvch-lang. also director of the Institute of Atomic Energy ln Pelping. Located on the campus of tbe Hslan Division of Chlaotung University, tht centerranch of the Institute of Atomic Energy and cornea under the administrative control of the Shensi Branch of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Thewith the Physics Department of Chlaotungmanufactured anacceleratoraximum planned capacityev.

of Pnyvfci, Peiping .Head:Ju-wei who received his trainingStates, and has been Identified asChina's leading nuclear scientists.lo the Chinese Academy of Sciences,concerns itself mainly withas solid luminescence or radiation,and various other subjects relatedenergy and applied physics

frro-nic Energy.CHTKN San-chsang, who wu trained Subordinate to the Academythe Institute carries on most ofin Communist China ln The Institute la capable ofadvanced research In the field of The institute controls tbowith the Soviet-suppliedWreactor andev cyclotron, bothare locatedoutf Pelping and slightly letsmiles west-northwest of Llanghalang.In use at the Instituteof Pelpingan deev5 Mev).vacuumecatrcm.spectroscopes and microscopes, varied measuring instruments.thereufficient number otwell-qualified scientists to occupylevel positions within thehortage of sufficient researchImprovement will be noted asUniversity of Science andthe supply of Its graduates Intoand Its branch Institutes, as well asInstitutes of the AS. Branches of the

IAE havbeen reported nl Helen, ShenriLanchou. Kantu Province. Wuhan, Hupeh Province. Chengtu. fjsechwanand Urumchl. Sinkiang Province Each of theae branches la adminLttraUvely con-trc.'ed by the corresponding branch of the Chinese Academy of Science* located at each of these locations- High energy nuclear physics researchcarried outroup of Institute attenuate at JlrTR.

e Research at the Institute of Atomic Energy haa dealt largely with th* production ofand atomic energy equipment, with considerable emphaals on theoretical research. Recent work includes studies of weakbetween nuclei and elementaryend work on the ttevalcfjment of mill!-micros cond pulse techniques. This latter work would seem to imply that future work in the relatively sophisticated field of neutron time of flight will be done. The table ofof tht Institute of Atomic Energy ts given in Figure 2.

nstitute of OeeaOft,HOU Te-feng. The tnsUluie la subordinate to the Chinese Academy cf St knees and haa alocated In Changch*un. Klrta Province

(head YUhere la also anof Geology Research affiliated wtth the

Ministry of Geology, which currently carries out ail the research for the Ministry tn support of the numerous geological surveys beingIn China.

aboratory of Agricultural Application of Atomicr. HSU Kung-jen, who wu educated In the United States. EsUbllshedugust 'WT, thela under tne Chinese Academy ofSciences. It ls the leading research organ for the study of applications ofand ionised irradiation In agriculture especially in regard to plant cultivation

9 Pttping I'Mvernty.of Physics, Atomic Energy and Radio Electronics com prise one of the centers for nuclear research under the II-Year Plan for Science. Teachers and students of theof PhysicsT Mevas wellO Mev Induction electron accelerator. Th* vice-president of theCHOU Pel-yuan is often identified as one of China's leading nuclear scientists.

ANNEX 1

tEADING COMMUNIST CHINESE NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS

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annex B

leading communist chinese nuclear scientists

The following Chinese Communist scientists are considered to be among the leading per-sonallUea in China, associated with the atomic energy program [

Chta-fiua,scientist at the Instituteeturned5 after having spent severalthe United States, where he received afrom the University ofsubsequently worsted as an InstructorAAM.e publishedentitled "Positrons" and8 awith Chinese accomplish merits lnof radioactive Isotopes tn

Wen-gu,physicsrays. Deputy director of theAtomic Energye has beenof the staff of the Institute sincehe returned to Communist ChinaUnited States Ine wasgoing to the USSR The purposevisit Is not known, but it Is likely thatthe JINR, Dubna Dr. CHANGa research professor in atomic andphysics at Purdue University,professor in physics,esearch associate. Awardeddegree fromS. He became aof physics at National Southwestin. prior to his workUnited States. Dr. CHANO hason radioactivity, nuclearby high speed particles. Interactionwith matter, and cosmic rays. Inon cosmic rays, he has done research on

gamma rays originating from mu mesons in lead and Iron. He la the author of numerous scientific papers, including "Analysis of Beta-dlslntegraUoriStudy of Showerstn Lead. Carbon.nd "Further Results from the Study of Sea Level

Penetrating

Chung-veto.energy.of the scientific council ofUSSR,e Is alao aof the Institute of Atomic Energy,been affiliated with this institutewhen It was named the InstitutePhyatca.nCalifornia Institute of TechnologyDr. CHAO subsequently did researchInstitute of Technology,University of Halle, Eaat Germany;laboratory, Cambridge. Authorleast two books dealing with principlesenergy, he was credited by theRobert Mlllutan with the discoveryrays produced by the annihilationpositronegatron

San<h'Uxng,as Communist China's leadingphysicist. Director IAE sincer. CHTEN holds or hasImportant scientific positions lnChina since be returnedfter havingh.Dthe University of Parts Heof Research, Nallonal Center. Dr. CH1BNseveral positions within the Academy(Secretary General,of the Department of Physics,Chemistry; and Chief of the HsianResearch Center, of the Shensithe Academy of Sciences).

Although h* is

not believed to have been engaged in rc .che did much valuable research prior to that time. His most Important and best known work was the discovery of the third and fourth phases of nuclear fission. Born:

CHOVhyzics, specializing in aerodynamics and fluidVice-president. Peiping University, and member of the standing committee,of Physics, Mathematics andAcademy of Sciences. Secretary of the World Federation of Scientific Workers, An active Communist Party member. Dr. CHOUoctorate degree in physics from California Institute of Technologynd returned to China where he became aof physics at National Tslnghuaand subsequently at NationalCollege. The greater portion of CHOU's research was carried on in the early years of his scientific career. His most recent thesis.as entitled "The Vorttcity Structure of Homogeneous Isotoptc Turbulence in Its Final Period ofom:

CBUrags. Presently at JINR, Dubna, USSR. Has been aat the IAE since atIn the United Kingdom prior to histo Communist China,ecently published research includes: "The Electric Multlpole Internal Conversion Induced by Neutronnd "Angularof the Decay Products of the Hyperon."

FENOember of the IAEe received his postgraduate education tn the United States, at Washington State College and the University of California at Berkeley.r. FENO workedesearcher at theof Nuclear Studies at the University of Chicago, remaining in this capacity until his return to Communist China sometime5orn:

Chia'in,physics.has concentrated his researchthe cyclotron at the IAE. with which heassociatedn Januaryreturned from the United States whereworked and studied7 atInstitute of Technology and atSubsequently, he worked as aassistant In the MicrowaveStanford University, became anthe University ofndtbe position of technicalthe Argonne Cancer Hccpltal at theof Chicago until prior to his returnTwo of his papers, published Inentitled:ew Method of Beamfor the Electron Cyclotron."to the Theory of WaveStratifiedorn: 8

HUember of the Scientific Council of JINR. Dr. HU has been affiliated with the IAE as well as serving as professor In theof Physics at Peiping University,rior to his return to Communist Chinae was on the Staff of theResearch Council.taff member, Department of; and didwork at the Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Copenhagen, priorr. HU received his Ph.D. degree Inphysics from California Tnstltute of Technologyoth before and after he acquired his doctorate, HU spent brief periods in research at the Princeton Institute IorStudies. His theses were entitled "On the Quadruple Correlation tn Isotropicanduantum Mechanical Theory ofncluded among his morepublications are "On Multiple Production of Mesons by High-Energy Nucleonnd "Further Investigation onalrlx In Meson Theory."

HBAnlsl China's leading mathematician, and director ol the Institute of Mathematics of the Academy of Sciences Since

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e liaseputy director of the Department ot Physics, Mathematics and Chemistry of the AS, as well as head.f the preparatory committee for tha establish-ment of the Academy's Institute ofTechniques- Dr. 3UA hasumber of important scientific posts after receiving his DSc. fror. Cambridge University. Has done research at the Princeton Institute of Advanced Studies, and served aa professor in the Department of Mathematics of theof Illinois priorfter his return to China, heember of the Mathematical and Physical Sciences Group of the AShen he became professor of physics at National Talng-hua University Research papers published8 includeonvergent Theorem In Space Formingontinuous Functionens-IngndAnalysisypical Form in the Theory of Function of Several Complexe received first prise8 from the AS for the last work cited.0 toeventeen of his research papers were published. Born:

COofember of the Scientific Committee of both the Institute ofnd the Institute of Metallurgy and Ceramics,t" the AS. Dr. KO became deputy director of the latter Institutee was alao Identified with the Scientificof the Institute of Metals. Shenyang Branch of the Academy of Sciences,nd, He servedrofessor at Tslng-hua University. Prior to his return to Communist Chinar. KOhD. degree from the Universityid post-doctorate work at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and became an assistant professor at theof Chicagoeat of his work at the university was done for tha Office of Naval Research and ln-olved the deformation of metals. He has done outstanding work since his return to China on the development of materials for use at high temperaturea. {

sup ra way iwis.

Stu-kuano,OneChinas leading andinfluential geologists. Dr. LI holdsheld the following positions:ember cf theof Earth Sciences of theice-president (oneof the Academyof both the Academy'snd the instituter. LIrom which hedegrees, and was awarded anfrom the University of Oslo. Hethe A. P.ad Medal forachievements in Geology.Petrography and Mmermcgy fromcf Sciences. USSRhas been primarily involved as anand "popular front" representativeCommunist reglms. However, on twohe was reported as closelyChina'a nuclear energy program; heRussian and Chinese specialists indiscuss the exploitation of uraniumSinkiang province; and.layedpart In formula ting planshole Born:

director of the IAEA, sinceof the standing committee.of Physics, Mathematics andthe AS Graduated from theorked as anat the Dublin Institute forprior lo his returnrofessor of physics. when he becamewith the AS.as asent to Moaeow to plan for theof the Joint Institute fore was again In Moscowan International Ccmference onBays.

Kan-ch'ang,director and head of ChineseJIN if and associated with the institute

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Its beginningfterh.D. degree4 from the University of Berlin, he returned to China and workedrofessor of physics at Cheklang Universityhen hetudent at the University of California. Deputy Director of the. He recently has been credited as being one of the discoverersew nuclearanil slgnm minus hyperon. He is reported to havearge bubble-type chamber for theat the Dubna institute, as welladioactive counter and film detector. His recent papers include "Electron-Proton Showers InA Suggestion on theof thend "Nuclear Field and Gravitationalom:

EN Cht-ti'u,physics, spe-claltting in optics and specCroscopy. Director of the Department of Technical Sciences of the ASndember of the Physics Faculty of the Chinese University of Science and Technology. Althougha high degree of technical competence, Dr. YEN has concerned himself largely with administrative duties in line with Communist Party directivesfter receiving his doctorate from the University of Parisnd priore had published at least fifty scientific papers ln English, French, and Chinese. His research efforts included studies of the resolution and shift of spectral lines in sn electric field and the widening, shift and asymmetry of atomic spectra of alkali metals. He has also done research on spectrogrsphy, piezoelectric crystals, applied optics, rttdicchemlstry and crystallography. Hbmetallurgical delegation" to the USSR in

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