CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Created: 10/27/1960

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW

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ISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM RELEASE AS SANITIZED

AND THE CARIBBEAN

Guevara's ten-manmissloo to Czechoslovakia, the USSR. Coamuolat Chios, Kortb Korea, and East Germany left Cuba onctober. On the eve of Ms departure, Guevaraelevision audience tbat be was going primarily to negotiate Cuba's commercial exchange for tbs coning year under trade pacta with these countries. Guevara sill probably seekarrangements with the bloc to coapeoaate for items tbat Cuba can no longer receive froa tbs United States. However, because of the nature of Cuba's Industrial plant, It stay be forced to seek Immediatesources of supply in nonbloo countries, whlcb are better equipped to supply Cuba's inport needs.

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Hla TV talk clearly implied efforts toward tho further lntegrmtlon of Cubs with tbe bloc. He referredoreign "comrades" in tbe Cuban Petroleum Institute "who are going to the USSR to getand implied tbat bloo technicians in other industries sr* also performing such aerw-icem.

Cuba and Rumaniarade agreement and technical asslatacee protocol In Havana onctober,ointdeclared theirto exchange ambassadors. Tbe composition of the Rumanian delegation suggests that that country may provide Cuba with technical assistance for its petroleum lnduatry.

Moscow baa moved on several fronts thla paat week to foster ths Impression tbat thereeal danger tbat tbe US will intervene militarily lo Cuba and tbat, in tbat event, tbe USSR stands ready to lend every assistance to Cuba. The Soviet

objectives are apparently to Increase suspicion of USand to stimulate soae

action by tbe neutralists in the United Nations which might put tbe United States in on embarrassing position.

Soviet propaganda coverage of the Cuban situation haa been tepped up and now Includes daily warnlnga of alleged Anerlcan plans for "counterrevolutionarylong withof US trade restrictions and of Ambassador Bonssl'sAt the United Nations, tbe Soviet delegstion has come out stroojly Id support of tbe Cuban complaint, whlcb includes the charge tbat tbe US is planning toarge-scale Invasion of tbe countryew daya."

Despite these efforts to arouse concern over tbeof US Intervention in Cuba, it eeona unlikely that tbe USSR anticipates such action. Khrushchev's threatuly'totuse rockets "if-necessary" lo "defense of tbs Castro government in tbe event of US aggression warn soas not actnally toa commitment to any specif lo course of action,and It baa never been repeated. Furthermore, TASB quotedhchev as sayingreas interview oneptember, when asked about bla rocket threat.

IMJOiEDIATK INTEREST NOTES AND COMMENTS

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Americat Intend to attack Cuba, this means that thereo danger whatsoevor."

Soviet bloc allltaryto Cuba thus far Include small araa, machine guns,artillery, and tanks. More sblpaonts are expected. The quantity of this equlpaent la clearly excessive for Cubanneeds and will pernltof Cuba's WeBtaro-aanufaov tured weapons for clandestine military support elsewbere In tbe hemisphere, should this bo the Cuban intention.

In view of tbe lack ofpersonnel Id Cuba, theregime will be required to rely heavily oo tbe Soviet bloc for training tbe Cuban military in the use and maintenance of tbe new weapons and allltafy-related Items such asequipment and radar. In-cresslng numbers of Cubans will probably be sent to the bloc for training, particularly If tbe Caatro regime follows through wltb Its apparentto buildualified "defenae force" based on Soviet bloc equlpaent.

Tbe Cuban Governmentto the new US export restrictions by Increasing its propaganda attacks on the United States for tbis "new act of aggression." Onctober, most of tbe remaining Aaerlcan-owoed businesses lo Cuba wore nationalized.

Host other Latin American governments appoar to feel tbat tbe US action was Justified. Official circle* in Mexico and Chile, however, are orltlcal and feel It will give Castro an Important propaganda advantage ln the hemisphere. Other. while ayapatbetle to tbe US poaltloa. have expressed con-corn over what they expect will

trong nagatlv* reaction among tbe Latin American public

Some of these governments may also see tbe cove as tbe need for tbelr own participation lo aoy futuresanctions against tbe Castro regime. Many Latin Aaerlcan Isadora prefer to regard tbe Cuban Issueilateral roblem botween th* United States and Cuba, and tbe Ecuadorean foreign ministerf Latin Aaerlcan governmento are too weak to run abead of public opinion on this Issue.

The Camtro regime, which bas boon embarrassedun-bor of defection* tbis year among Cuban offlclala abroad, is apparently recallingand consular officers to screen tbea. Offlclsls ln Bra-zll and Mexico are alreadyhome, and more will follow. ecree ofepteaber removed job tenure rights from foreign service personnel. It is becomingthat those officialsaa "reliable" for foreign assignment are tboae who nnques-tlonlngly accept and are willing to promote tbe Communist position on Cuban and international issues. Tbe Cuban ambassador appointed to Pari* onctober,oag record of Communist associations.

Scattered opposition groups continue active inside Cubaelaborate government efforts to give the impression they hay* ban wiped out,

,, volution

ary activity and acts of sabot in many parts of tbs country. Widespread rumors in Oriente Province suggestew invasion foroe" of about SO persons landed on the north coast on or aboutctober,government allltary

IMMEDIATE INTEREST

NOTES AND COUUFHTS

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