Created: 5/16/1961

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Minute* of One-hundred-fifty-fifth Meeting United States Intelligence Board USIB Conference Room, Administration Building Central Intelligence Agency, 1

Deputy Director of Central Intelligence General Charles P. Cabell Presiding


Mr. Thomas L. Hughes, acting for Director of Intelligence and Research,

Department of State General Graves B. Erskine, Assistant for Special Operations to the

Secretary of Defense Colonel Burton R. Brown, acting for Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence.

Department of the Army Rear Admiral Vernon L. Lowrance, Assistant Chief of Naval Operations

(Intelligence), Department of the Navy Brigadier General William G. Lee, cting for Assistant Chief of Staff,

Intelligence. United States Air Force Vice Admiral Laurence H. Frost, Director, National Security. Agency Rear Admiral William S. Post, cting for Director for Intelligence,

Joint Staff

Mr. Harry S. Traynor, Atomic Energy Commission representative to the USIB

Mr. Alan H. Belmont, Federal Bureau of Investigation representative to the USIB

of Mayincludingthrough

Approved as circulated, including the Special Annex.

Certain Areas

{See Special Annex to these minutes. )


Noted this report. In this connection, after discussingn the lightuestion raised by Admiral Post, the Board concurred in the view that no changes in the judgments as expressed in thatwere warranted.

of Sensitive Situations

Korea. The Board discussed information from various sources

bearing on the reported military coup In Korea. In the course of the

discussion reference was made to questions such as the likelihood of the

success of the coup, the political orientation of coup leaders, possible

moves by other elements of the Korean army, and the tenor of prior

intelligence reporting on,and evaluation of,developments in Korea. The

members also exchanged views on the practical difficulties faced by

intelligence in answering or dealing with statements or inquiries by the

press and other media in coup situations, regardless of the accuracy of intelligence reporting or estimates.

UAR-Israeli. The Chairmanuestion regarding the potential explosivenesa of this situation, particularly in the light of the reported concern of Ben-Gurion over UAR military maneuvers.

Jordan. The members exchanged views on developments in Jordan, including the possibility of internal coup attempts or potential moves by the UAR, especially in view of the forthcoming marriage of the Kingon-Arab. It was agreed that this and the UAR-Israelishould be watched closely.

Laos. The Board noted recent developments in Laos and exchanged views concerning the current Geneva conference.

Iran. After discussing the situation in Iran in the light of aby the Army representative, the members directed the Board of National Estimates to draft andomparatively brief special estimate on Iran,iow to consideration of the paper at the next USIB meeting.

Ecuador. General Erskine invited attention to developments in Ecuador and the Board exchanged views on the outlook In lhat country.

Damage Ir.tc restB

(See Special Annex to these minutes. )


(Memorandum to USIB. ay: Item 4)

The Board discussed in considerableoard of National Estimates memorandumay and other pertinent factors bearing on the Algerian situation. Following their review, the Board agreed that the memorandum should serve as the basispecial estimate on the Algerian problem to be drafted and coordinated by the Board of National Estimates for presentation at the next USIB meeting. It was understood thatraft of the estimate might be used, as appropriate, to meet any intelligence requirement In connection with the forthcoming Presidential visit to France.


7. Poat-Mortem

Noted the findings, aubject to an amendment to paragraphnd approved the action recommended in thia post-mortem.

of Cost

(Attachment to,pril; available throughon Cost Estimates Committee)

After discussion with Mr. Saunders the Board noted the Committee's report with the understanding that it would be made available for further Board review in the event that any requirement for this report developed in the future.

The Board alao agreed to dissolve the Cost Estimates Committee. It was recognized, however, in view of responsibilities assigned to the Coordination Staff with respect to implementation of certain Joint Study Group recommendations in this general field, that that Staff might need assistanceater date fromuch as those who hadin activities of the Cost Estimates Committee.

President'sAdvisory Board

The Chairman informed the members of the composition of the new Presidential Advisory Board and noted that Mr, Dulles and he had attended an organization meeting of the Board.


(See Special Annex to these minutes. )


Soviet Capabilities for Long Range Attack

The Chairman noted thatad been scheduled for USIB revieway anduestion about the target date of this estimate in the light of the present status of its coordination and the roporled interest of the Secretary of Defense in the timing of the paper. After discussion the Board, including Admiral Post, agreed that the paper should be submitted for USIB consideration one week later than previously scheduled.


0 the Chairman requested un executive session, during which Mr. Maury of CIA met with the members.


JOHN HEIRES Executive Secretary


Copies of, "Soviet Short-Term Intentions Regarding


Original document.

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