*BeMn
MHgMRHRBffilV PROGRflM
Economicj "J'jtJLj^
PRODUCTION OF ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS IN THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
T
PRODUCTION OF ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS IN THE
CIA/RR
WARNING This inSterJal con talcs ir.lormation aBeetUiH thetates within the meanlhsvSL-^hV'cspionaec laws,heoriftveTatton of whlch>Uiany manner to an unauthorized person Is prohltSHed by law.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
in
Tills report assesses the growth of production Of electronic digital and analog computers in the USSR primarily during the current Seven Year Plaji An estimate of the annual value of production of each category is provided, together with estimates of the numbers of
types produced. Thes? data are compared with avail-
able II
The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of thesignificance of production of electronic computers in the USSR, and the report, therefore, does not attempt an extensive coverage of the detailed technical characteristics of Soviet machines or of their performance in various applications.
This report is oneeries of ORR reports on particularly Ib-portanl: subsectorshe electronics Industry of the USSR. Other recent reports of this type includehe Electron Tube-Industry of the USSR.ECRET, andU,of Semiconductor Devices In Hie USSR,ECRET.
- in -
.ft ii ip
CONTENTS
Pace
Summary and
I. Introduction
of
of Computer Production in the USSR Commodity Coverage
II.
of
C-
Analog
Digital Computers
D. Problems and
III. Utilization of Electronic Computers in the USSR
IV. Soviet Trade in Computers
Appendixes
by Producing Facility
Appendix 3. Soviet Terminology for Computers
* C.
Appendix 'J. Source
v -
r-
i
k
Tables
Page
Value of Production of Electronic
Analog and Digital Computers in the USSR,
Value of Production of Computing and
Mathematical Machines in the
Value of Production of Electronic
Analog and Digital Computers in the USSR,
Charta
Following Page
Figure 1. USSR and US: Comparison of the Valueof5
Figure 2. USSR; Value of Production of Electronic
Figure 3- USSR: Percentage Distribution of the Value of Production of Electronic
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PRODUCTION OF KLKCTROMIC COMPUTERS IK THE
SiLtinutry and Conclusions
Intensive work in research on and development of electronichas been carried out in the USSR since the end of World War II. Initially, emphasis was placed most heavily on analogandrowing economic capability in this field has been evident. ide range of types of analog computers has been produced for routine use in schools, scientific laboratories, and industry and in military applications. Although the majority of Soviet analog computers do not meet the levels of performance of the better US devices, they are clearly adequateide variety of important applications. In contrast to the relatively strong position of the USSR in the area of analog computers, Soviet production of digital computers until recently hasuch slower rate of growth, and production technology in the digital computer field has been markedly inferior to US practice. Beginning inowever, the economic effort devoted to production of digital electronichas been intensified, and production of digital computers at the present time is showing signs of vigorous growth.
* One estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best judgment of this Office asl.
The term electronic computer refersroad category offor manipulating information and performing calculationsombination of electronic and electromechanical, means. The terms outoaiation equipment or electronic data processing equipment also are used in reference to such equipment.. The'term electronic computers refers primarily to electronic analog and digital computers and their associated input, output, and inforcation storage devices. For further details, see I, C, p.elow.
*** Ruble values in this report are given5 rubles and may be converted to US dollarsateubles to This rate does not necessarily reflect the value of rubles in terms of dollars For methodology. See Appendix C.
9 the estimated value of Soviet, production of electronic computers wasillionercent of the total value of electronic equipment produced in the USSR for that year. In the US the value of
f computers9 reached approximatelyillion, or
equipment Jroduecd that
year, 5 the USSR will produce electronic computers valued at
^ 3'8 bU1JODoreimes9 value Although the rate of growth indicated by the current
^v. different from that experienced
^WesCern nations and is Insufficient to enable the UobR toignificant relative gain on the US
The planned growth in Soviet production of computers is based on an ambitious program for expansion of the production base. Up to the present time, almostercent of the total production of computers has been concentrated in two major plants. The current planore widely dispersed industryomputer plants currently under construction anddditional plants scheduled to begin production Difficulties in planning and production and shortages Incomponents have been cited extensively in the Soviet press in the last few years, reflecting some of the problems that are bumpering the growth of this soctor of electronic equipment. The planned capital expansion program will continue to create difficulties in theof production engineering with the research and design institutes on the one hand and the electronic components industry on the other. The increased production facilities, however, will provide steadyto the total Soviet capability to produce computers during the next few years.
The over-all growth of Soviet production of computers and theaof &ovth between analog and digital computerseflect both an expanding industryaturing technological pattern wherein digital computational methods will replaceumber of important applications. Production of electronic computers in the USSR6 was about equally divided between analog and digital machines. Under the current Seven Year Planhich places heavier emphasis on production of digital computers, the annual value of production of digital computers5 will beimes the value of analog computers produced that year.
Production refers to production of five or more
unitspecific type.
--
ectnt developments in digital computers have included the introduction into serial production* of three new types of large digital computers, the BESM-II, the Ural-II, andhese modelsegree of improvement over earlier production tlon nf^iifessivo to identify themewof Soviet digital computers. The latter two models probably will
be the principal digital machines to be produced serially at least roductionompletely solid state machine may begin. This change will bring with it additional improvements in machine organization, input-output devices, and memory capabilities that will further enhance the over-all capabilities of the USSR in applications of digital computers.
esult of the slow rate of growth that has characterized production in the past, the USSR has been unable to utilize digital computers to the same extent as the US for other than high-priority efforts iu scientific research and military applications. Because of the apparently strict apportionment of computer time to projects of highest priority, past and present shortages of digital computers probably have not seriously hampered critical research efforts or priority military projects.
In spite of widely publicized plans for extending the use of digitul computers in industry, nonmilitary uses ure still largely in the planning or testing phase. Experimental applications arein the field of automation of the chemical, oil, steel, andtool industries; in economic planning and accounting; inlanguage translation; in weather forecasting; and in medical diagnosis. The use of digital computers for handling business data and for industrial controls will remain small compared with military and scientific uses and will continue to lag behind the USV There probably willoticeable Increase within thoears in the use of computers for regional and national economic planning and other government statistical, computations.
T. Introduction
of Computers
Electronic computers are of two basic types: analog or Analog computers operate with data that are continuouslysuch as voltages, temperatures, pressures, and flows. Analog computers usually are smaller, simpler, and less expensive than digital machines. Mathematical computations in analog computers areso that the speed of computations is unaffected by the number of variables. Analog computers are often used in the simulation of complex theoretical problems such as occur ln studies of aerodynamics or in control systems such as those used for missile and gun controls and in industrial process controls. More than oc percent of all analog computing devices produced in the US9 wore purchased by the military.
Digital computers operate with data expressed ln discrete numerical values, although In practice digital Inputu may be obtained from an analog measurement converted by an analog to digital Digital computers carry out long sequences of operations automatically, referring to memory and stored program for instructions and information. Accuracy Is limited only by the number of digits used and the method used for programing. Digital computers ereversatile; can be used for problems in business, science, and engineering and for control; and generally arc more expensive than the analog computer.
of Computer Production in the USSR
roduction of electronic computers was organized and controlled by the Ministry of Machine und Instrument Building.6 the Ministry of Instrument Building and the MrsanB ofwas created and assumed control over production of Following the Industrial reorganizationhe two major electronic computer plants, in Moscow and Penza, becameto their local sovnarkhozes (national Economiche Leningrad Experimental Computer Plant vas cade directlyto Gosplan, Other experimental plants probably are administered by institutes of the Academy of Sciences, USSR. long-term technical placing in the fields of electronic computers and industrialapparently is accomplished Jointly by the State Comaittee6 on Radio-Electronleg, Scientific Engineering, and Automation and Machine Building. Economic considerations are coordinated through Gosplan, local sovnarkhozea, and Individual
For serially numbered Source references, see Appendix D.
v
C. Commodity Coverage
Estimates of the value of production of electronic computers ln this report are based primarily on plan data relating to theof equipment termed by the USSR as "computing and mathematical machines"atematichosklye maahiny). In the context of Soviet statements, however, it is clear that in official plan data the value of production of some types of electromechanical officesuch as calculators and adding machines, also is included. The value scries constructed from plan data, therefore, was deflated by the amount of the estimated value of production of thesedevices.* The product nix between electronic digital and analog computers was estimated by calculating the production index for analog computers from officially announced rates of growth and by applying the value weightase year in which themix was known. The resulting value series was subtracted from the value series for both digital and analog machines to obtain the series for production of digital computers. An independent check on the total value series for computers was made by estimating thevalue of all computers produced08 and by comparing this estimate with the equivalent data derived in the series based on plan announcements. urther check on thesethe estimated average labor productivity in the electronics industryhole was applied to the estimate of labor force in the plants known to be producing this type of equipment.**
II. Production
A. Estimates of Production
9 the estimated value of Soviet production ofcomputers wasillion,ercent of the value of US production for that year. Of the total electronicproduced, digital computers represented about pv2 million, and analog computers represented about $Uo million. Electronicaccounted forercent of the total value ofof electronic equipment in the USSR In the US the
It is believed that the value of all general-purpose nonmllitary computers and, except for some military electromechanical analogall military computers produced in the USSR are included in the estimates of this report. Many specialized devices manufacturedarticular control application are not considered to fall into the category of computers and are not covered in this report. For further details, see Appendix C.
** The details of these steps are provided in Appendix C.
vr
share of tha total production of electronic equipment represented
by electronic computers in that year vas approximately
Tho estimated trends of growth in the value of production of electronic computersnderscore the Increased emphasis thut la now being placed on production of digital machinea under tbe Seven Year Plan (see the chart. 6 the annual value of production of analog computers exceeded that of digital As shown in* and in the chart.8 tbe total value of production of electronic computers was approximately equally distributed between analog and digital types. The differential rales of growth for the next few years, derived from data on the Seven Year Plan, indicate that5 the annual value of production of digital computers will beimes that of analog machines. Whereus the rate of growth for analog computers has been declining und that Tor digital computers accelerating, the rates of increase for both typoii have been substantial, reflecting both an expanding industryaturing pattern wherein digital techniques willanalog techniquesumber of important applications. Because each type of computer has some unique capability or weakness lnapplications, Soviet demand for both will continue to grow aa the economy expands.
0 and the end9 the USSRigital computers compared with moreroduced in the US la that period. 3/ Of the US machines,re atlll in use. Of the Soo Soviet units, atre the small-sireype, whereas0 or the US digital computers still in use are largo general-purpose machines, each valued atillion or more- Tbe USSR producedcoeneral-purpose analog computersr about the same number of general-purpose machines as were produced in the US in the same period.
raphic comparison of the value of electronic computers produced in thend the US ror selected years, see the chart. Figureollowing p. 8. Estimates of the value of production of computers In the USSR for each year of theay be found inndppendix C,nd life, respectively, below.
Following p. 8. ollows on p. 8.
Serial production of electronic digital computers did not begin6 ln the USSR, although significant developmental work and iuboratory Bcale production had been Initiated shortly after World War II. Serial production of analog computers had begun several years earlier than that of digital computers. Itelieved that, as
Estimated Value of Production of Electronic Analog and Digital Computers in the USSR a;
Computers
Computers
b/
b/
= ICO)
Rubles)
)
Rubles)
computation, value data were rounded to twoand indexes were rounded to tho nearest five. Formethodology, see Appendix C.
the method of estimating this value aeries was basedfigurease yeart should be noted thatfor plan purposes probably is still done in terms ofwhich may be converted at the rateubles to
ofifferent models of digital, computers andoodels of analog computers vere in serial production. 4/
The planned value of production of unalog and digitalin the USSR5 will beimes that8 and moreimes that Although this rate of growth is substantial, it is not markedly greater than that experienced in the US in this area of production, and it is insufficient to enable the USSR to make an Important relative gain on the US Because very few Soviet machines will be devoted to routine business andpurposes, this rate of growth doesignificantncrement to Soviet capability in computation for military andpurposes.
1
USSR AND US
comparison of the value of production of electronic computers
5
million us doll aps
rWi
distal rucDHlM.
Figure 3
Soviet electronic computers arc built io three types offacilities: producing plants. Institutes, and experimental plants. The basic plants producing electronic computers are under control of Gosplan, USSR, and of In the USSR, most production of electronic computers is believed to take place at two producing plants: the Moscow and Penza Computer and Analytical Machine Plants, whichombined labor force0 employees. roduction of electronic computers at these plants amounted toillionr almostpercent by value of the total Soviet production of electronic computers.
Under the Seven Year Plan the capacity of productionIs scheduled to be increased several times. At the endnnounced plans called foromputer producing plants to be inby the end/ Thelants may include some plants for production of office machines and industrial control equipment ao well as of electronic computers. As early7 it was announcedlants for making electronic computero and automatic apparatus ore to be erected in the USSR during the next fewj Five computer plants arc presently in various stages of construction. These plants include the Leningrad Experimental Computer Plant, which was under construction and planned to begin productionhe Experimental Plant of tlie Yerevan Institute of Mathematical Machines and the Vll'nyus Computer Plant, both of which were started7 and as or0 were still underlant in Estonia, which was under constructionnd the Computer Center of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, which was under constructionTwo unconfirmed reports at tho end9 indicate the existence of producing plants or facilities for electronic computers in Minsknd Taganrog. 0/
Slightly more thanercent by value of Soviet production of electronic computers8 is estimated to have taken place at facilities other than the Moscow and Penzu plants, lliese facilities Include scientific research institutes arid experimental plants as well as other minor industrial plants. The share of the total valueby computers produced In institutes and experimental plants is large because those computers are often oneind, are sometimes specialized, and therefore arc expensive.
There are aboutnstitutes that design and build electronic computers in the USSR. General-purpose electronic computers areIn institutes of universities and of the Academy of Sciences, whereas special-purpose computers generally ore developed byassociated with specific Industries in which the computers are
to be used or by newly created specialized institutes. For example, the Armenian Research Institute of Computing Machines and Automation is engaged in building electronic computers for tbe automation of the chemical industry and metallurgical
The prototypeew design may be builtroducing plant, an institute, or at an experimental plant. 'i,of several experimental computer plants has begun. These plants are attached to scientific institutes and are intended tothe institutes and the production plants in Moscow and Penza of the task of making the experimental models of the computers. Such experimental plants are known to exist in association with scientific institutes in Leningrad, Yerevan, and Kiev. Production of components as well as of computers will toko place in the Yerevan and Leningrad experimental plants.
In addition to the added production capacity that will be obtained from new plants, new construction and expansion at the Moscow and Penza plants also is planned. Construction at the Moscow plant6 has already necessitated the expansion of the labor forceersons. The planned growth at the Penza plant under the Seven Year Plan, largely new construction, is intended to double the capacity of the plant.
* For details on individual Soviet computers, see Appendix A.
The Moscow Computer and Analytical Machine Plant,abor forceersons, is presently the largest known plant in the USSR producing electronic computers. The plant originally was built8 and, like the Penza plant, is partarger industrial Formerly producing typewriters and office calculating equipment, the Moscow plant now has been converted to production of digital and analog computers. Some peripheral computer equipment and computer components (transistors, subminiature tubes, rectifiers, and memory devices) also are produced. In addition, this plant producesand other measuring and- recording devicesithcomputers. Tho manufacture of standard parts is done on an assembly line basis. Automatic assembly equipment of an unspecified nature (possibly automatic component insertion on printed circuit boards) was under development9 for use in this plant. The structural elements of electronic computers are essentiallyas in the Penza plant. Of the identified digital computersat this plant, the Strela and theigital computers have been produced serially.* Only abouttrela computers were reported to have boon produced before this computer was token from production.he fastest Soviet digital ccaputer, also has been placed in serial production recently. Several models of0 were seen
by US visitor* in the assembly area of the Moscow plant In
Of the analog computers produced lr. this plant, the largeas
reported in serial productionortable analogthe MK-M, was in serial production Thes planned to be one of the main production Items of the plant. Inthis plant reportedly hadohysicists working on the development of transistors. Ofmployees of this plant
OO were reported to be eoglreers. mathematicians, and skilled technicians.
Tho Penza Computer and Analytical Machine Plantabor forcemployees This plant has built experimental models of specialized digital computers. Including the Pogoda, Krlstall, and Granit. The Penza plant produces digital computers, some analog computers, electronic test equipment, card punches, and card reading devices. Many specialized computer ports are made In this plant. Including farrltc cores and magnetic drums. Most of the more standard components such aa capacitors, resistors, and electron tubes are supplied by the radioelectronlcs industry. The Penza and the Moscow plants produce theerforator,ontroller,orter, andH tabulator. 0 the Penza plant has produced tbelectronic Integrator. As early9 the Penza plantomputer designed by Guten-makher, who often is ossoclated with military projects for Scientific Research Institute Ho. lfiO. According to the Soviet press, * toercent of the total value of production of this plant was eomposed of office calculating equipment. The Penza plantartarge complex that produces watches and heavy equipment. US visitors9 reported seeingomputers on the floor at Penza and reported the current production rate of this computer to be oneays. Theomputer was placed in aerialin6 and Is currently pricedillion rubles. Ihe Ural-IIo be pricedillion rubless an improved version of tbond was placed in serial productionhe price of theow will be reducedoviet source. Thes produced In modular fashion and is composed of five cabinets or frames. Cabinets or frames almost identical with those of there used in the Pogoda computer and the MARS data-logging machine.
Like the Moscow and Penza Computer and AnalyticalPlants, other plants producing office calculating machines could be converted in part or totally to production of electronic computers. There is no evidence that either the Kursk or the Ryazwn' Analytical and Calculating Machine Plant lias ac yet produced anything other than office calculating machines. imes) is
planned for the Ryazan' plant during the Seven Year Plan, however, and future production will Include some electronic
The treDeodous planned expansion of capacity at plantselectronic computers under the Seven Year Plan emphasizes the importance that Soviet planning authorities attach to this sector of the electronics Industry. In criticisms of the shortcomings of this sector, primary responsibility for the low output of computers was Placed squarely on the "narrowness of the production base" (where production activities are "comparatively small, unspecialized" andow level of
C. Technology
1- Analog Computers
The USSR scored its earliest and most notable successes in both quantity and quality of production of electronic computers in the field of analog devices. At leastifferent types were in serial productionith several others In advanced stages of development. It is estimated that there arclectronic analog computers in use in thet the present time, ibis number iB approximately the same as that of such machines in use in the US in scientific and industrial (nonmilitary) uses. Theserange from portable types capable of handling sixth degree equationsarge analog computer for solving equations up toegree. Serial production of the smallest analog computer, the partly transistorized MN-M, was reported to have begun inndrobably had been produced by the end Thetffnsistorizedas reported in serial production inlthough no confirmation of this point has been seen. Other analog computers that have been produced serially In the last few years are thehend the
Whereas the number of analog computers produced in the UboR Is impressive, the accuracy of most of these machines, asby Soviet sources, is less than that of comparable Western computers. For machines of equivalent operating speeds (medium to real-time) this accuracy equates to an accuracy range ofercent for Soviet computers1ercent for US The greatest demand in industry, in military applications, and even in purely mathematical analyses is for real-time (or faster)
/ 7computers in which the solution occurs over the same (or shorter) time periods as the physical phenomena that are
" r details, see Appendix A, pp.elow.
being simulated. Tbe absence of Information about Soviet analogwith accuracies of betterercent does not, of course, prove an absolute Inability to produce these machines, but the fact that the known serially produced machines are of the less accurate types suggests that at beat only very small quantities of the better machines have been made. The voltage divider networks in most of the serially produced Soviet modelstated accuracywhereaB voltage divider accuracies1 percent and better are commonplace In the US and are much easier to obtain thanaccuracies in the electromechanical components (such as servo-multipliers, resolvers, and recorders) or in many of the electronic circuits (such as DC feedback amplifiers, arbitrary adjustablegenerators, and electronic multipliers).
2. Digital Computers
In contrast to the relatively strong position of the USSR in the field of analog computers, there is evidenceubstantial lag in the Soviet position, relative to the West, in both theand quality of production of digital computers. This lag has been candidly stated by Soviet computer specialists and economic planners, and measures to improve the situation arc being undertaken at the present time. There has been reliable evidence that production of at least three new or improved types of digital computers has been initiated recently. These modelsegree of improvement over the earlier computers that is sufficiently impressive to permit their being referred toew generation of Soviet computers,in many respects they are still less sophisticated thanproduced Western models.
oviet digital computers that were serially produced were markedly inferior to their counterparts in the US and Western Ihean the major production item ln terms of quantity of production, yet itery bulky, unreliable, and slow machine by Western standards. It is believed thatf these machines were produced by the end8ore by the end The Strelu computer, produced In much smaller numbers (aboutarger ind fasteralthough it also suffered from inherent limitations inand flexibility. Even the RKSM-I, the most advanced early Soviet digital computer, was comparatively much Slower und less flexible than many standard serially produced US machines. Each of the above computers was based on vacuum tube technology, with some use of semiconductor diodes. Hone of the Soviet digital computers was deslgnod toigh-speed magnetic core internal
storage,ore storage was incorporated into the7
Each of the computers mentioned above was. and no major technological improvement was Incorporated into machines being serially produced from that time Intensive research and development continued, however, and single units of more advanced types of general and special-purpose computers were fabricated. 7here were received reports which indicated that production of both thend the St re la were to be discontinued." ata thatthe nature of the new machines to be produced became available. This information, ln combination with official annouDcesentsthe scheduled growth of computer production under the Seven Year Plan, pormlts the formulationore comprehensive estimate of future developments in Soviet digital computers than has heretofore been possible.
Initial production of0 computererial basis probably began late8 or early Production of the Ural-II was Initiated An improved version of tho BESM (the DRSM-II) also has been reported to be in serial production Inut there is no firm Indication that present plans call for large-scale production of these computers.
* For further details on Soviet digital computers, see Appendix A.hepparently will remain in production after production of the Ural-II has begun.
Each of the above computers incorporates internalcore storage together with magnetic drum and tape memories. The slowest of these newer digital computers, the Ural-II, is capable of on average speedperations per second. The BESM-IIwill operate at0 operations per second, and0 will accomplish0 operations per second. The new computers thusonsiderableIn memory access and speed of operation compared with earlier models. The average speed figures quoted for Soviet machines are comparable with the range00 operations per second that is typical of the large US scientific machines ln aerialas These figures on speedomewhat ambiguous measure of merit, as they relate only to the central computer Itself and, taken alone, arerecise measure of theeneral-purpose computer. These figures are included here primarily to Indicate that at least in this parameter the better Soviet machines are relatively close to good Western computers. In moat other reupecta these new Soviet computers compare unfavorably
with current Western models. The Ural-II, BESM-II, and0 are all still baaed on vacuum tube technology rather than onompletely transistorized computer, the Razdan, ia still underand probably will not be ready for production untilThe first fully transistorized US computer (TRADIC) was completed Input-output equipment and primary memory storage systems of Soviet computers areears behind current Western practice, and no extensive use is being made of input and output buffering. 'Hie Internal organization of the Soviet machines (such as number representation and range, format and number ofand clock rate) is quite similar to that of US machines ofears ago. ih/
D. Problems and Shortage:i
As previously noted, the USSR hasistinct interest IDelatively good capability far standardizing anderies of electronic analog computers for routine use In schools, in scientific laboratories, and in Industry. Although the majority of known types do not exhibit the better characteristics of standard Western models, they are clearly adequateide variety of military afl well as educational, scientific, andpurposes.
In contrast to the success achieved in production of analog computers, thereubstantial body of evidence that places the USSRistinctly unfavorable position, compared with the US, in the area of general-purpose digital computers. The factors governing requirements for computers have not, or course, been identical in both countries. In the US the potential demand for computers for processing business data resulted tn an early emphasis on production of digital computers that could not be expected to occur in the USSR. In spite of this factor, however, it Is clear that there la alag tn the production of digital computers in the USSR which cannot be satisfactorily explained by the absence of requirements.
This lag stemscries of problems that continue to plague tbe Soviet computer industry. In spite of the importance of electronic computers to tbe automation of industry and to the control and guidance of satellites and missiles, production of electronicstill appears toictim of past and present inadequate planning and priority, especially innciUtary sector. Poor planning in the electronic computer Industry, according to Soviethas resulted in all the following situations: roduction eupaclty,oor quality and insufficient quantity of components suitable for electronic computerof trained computer specialists, unspeclolized production
xcessive time lags between the development and production of computers,oo lengthy testing and installation times,nadequate allotments of material to plants.
The President of the Academy of. Nesmeyanov, reported7 that "the number of machines /high-speed computers/ available entirely fails to satisfy the rapidly increasing demand for mathematical Early. Blagonravov stated that electronic computers must be given preferential treatment and charged that shortcomings in planning largely explained the lack of production of high-speed computers. He stated further that such fully tested computers as the BESM,, andhould have been in serial production but were only oneind. Inhere vas no plan for theof computer engineering in the immediate Under tho Seven Year Plan, verbal emphasis has been placed on developingof electronic computers. In the springowever, there were continued complaints that the coordinating Scientific and Technical Committee for Computer Technology was completely inactive and that the Leningrad sovnarkhoz was quite disinterested inserial production of electronic computers in the Leningradriticism that had been raised as early The newly constructed Leningrad Experimental. Computer Plant apparentlyite for serial production of electronic computers.
Perhaps the most serious problem retarding production and quality of computers is the poor quality and inadequate supply of components, which was blamed on poor planning in the radioelectronlcs industry. Without quality components, reliable machines cannot be produced. Semiconductors produced for electronic entertainmentare unreliable for use In computers. In the USSR, as in the US, the standard procedure has been to produce many of the components as well as most peripheral equipment for computers in plants producing computers. In the USSR, approximatelyrganizations that arein research and development of computers also produce equipment for computers. The lack of standardization and the wuste and delay in the serial production of computers are reflected in the inadequate quantity and quality of components Inhis problem was further elaborated in the Soviet press:
Experience indicates (liar ihe rapid introduction of computer machinery into industry is being impeded by insufficientOf the components and assemblies of machines. For this reason, the development of each new machine requires the efforts of large scientificf the problem ofwere solved and the production of standard components
and subassemblies were organised, even plant laboratories and design bureau* could develop and design inathematical and:omputer<
To make component* and asiemhlict nf control machiari. reliable electronic devices and component* are uigcntty needed, especially crystal in,-Irsnd diodes, fertileand tings, delay lines, miniature lesiitcx* and capacitors, and other devices and components. The demand for theseis so gicat ihai often Industry is unable to satisfy
The future improvement of electronic control machines will depend mainly on production of high-quality semiconductors, magnetic devices, and radio components as well as on the scientific research done In physics and electrical The USSR lc moving rapidly In the development of* production capability in semiconductors and raugnetic devices lor computers but still lags behind the West in the quantity and range of types produced.
Other serious problems arc the Inadequate plant capacity for the assembly of electronic computers and the absence of productlzatlon in Soviet plants. According to the Soviet press lnhe principal reason for the lack of computervan the "narrowness of the production At present, only two known computer plants of any size ure in operation, but at least 1'lve other computer plants arc scheduled to be placed inLB the near future.
The problem of inadequate plant facilities in the USSR for producing electronic computers has contributed to the excessive time formerly required from the beginning of tbe development to the final production of electronic computers. For example, thecomputer was designed. builtnd haggled over by Gosplanull year before being placed in serial production The excesslvo timeears required forand construction of new experimental models of electronic computeru was blamed mainly on the shortage of adequate facilities for experimental production. 8 the Moscow plant was criticized for being slow in carrying out experimental operations. Thecomputer plants recently built in Leningrad and Yerevan are evidently intended to help alleviate the serious shortage offor building experimental cootuuter&-
Another frequently mentioned problem Is the insufficient quantity and often poor quality of digital input-outputactor that significantly lowers the effectiveness of existing
machines and lope-dec their use for automation of production processes In addition to improvements ln design, the standardization of this equipment is urgently needed. Reportedly it was planned toingle line of standardized peripheral units for use ln conjunction with components and to begin serial production of such equipment, gj/
Reported shortages of engineers and programing mathematicians have been blamed for delays In checking out computer equipment at the installation points. In the USSR, according to reports, uponths were required forachine after installation. 2kJ As early6 it was charged that absolutely nothing had been done to train skilled electronic computer tudents studying automation at the Institute of Automatics and Telemechanics in Moscow. Of thisere specializing in some phaso of computer work. Alter graduation, most Of these students, however, go into analog computer work. It wasthat there are too many theorists und not enough appliedin the field of 6 the computer. Yershov stated that Moscow University aloneathematicians annually, of whompecialize in computer Referring directly to the shortage of trained computer specialists in industry, A. Petrov of the Penza Computer Plant reported9 as follows:
The oatpat of elccttoaie computing machinery will increase every rear, bv( even now (hit row* branch ot lodataj i*hortage of radio-dec Hook engineer* juJ progr-ming mathematicians. At the Peaan plant tbe inoruge of cadres is tbe Cause of delivery delays which can runoorhs: the completed machine* must be tuned up and tested, and tbe short-age of eipetts io this firld delay* ibeu completion. Last year tbe plant bad planned to ohtaioipen, in this field, but it received onlynd the shortageto be made good byspecialists in allied fields who have to be tettained. True, the Ministry of Education has wmked out an extensivefor the training of suchnd, as from rhisxperts in such field* will be specially
iw, . Lebedev and other Soviet specialists who visited the US admitted that there wanhortage of engineers in the field of electronics and computer Computerpresently in training in theory and production probablv will alleviate this problem.
The need lo standardize methods of constructing electronic computers and to design individual computers coapesed of identicalractice that io carried on in the US, has Dean stressed In recent Soviet tn addition, Soviet Industrial specialists do not believe that their computer plants aremechanized. According to A.omputer specialist at the Penza plant, "It is paradoxical thatlant which lspro-duclng complicated machinery for the automation of production /so much/ manual labor is still employed, e concluded, "production costs rise to impressive heights." To reduce costs, he' suggested the use of printed circuits with an annual saving of 1rubles. Printed wiring is employed in the USSR and has been usedut specialized production of printed wiring panelshacow plant was still not underway by the endiring on boards, but not printed circuitry, was used in the research model of theuilt by the Institute of Automatics andwhich was on display at the Soviet exhibition in New York
Shortages of materials other than electronic components also have been blamed on inadequate planning and priority. 8 the lack of allocations of materials hampered the Penza plant in its
production of computing nnd tabulating machines for censusoviet visitorS electronics plant complained that It was even difficult toufficient quantity cf insulated wire and cable for wiring such priority projects as computers and automatic control
The illustrations of production problems and componentin the field of digital computers cited above probablyenuine concern on the part of Industry officials over the planning difficulties that are encountered in this complex and rapidly growing sector of the electronics industry. These official self-criticisms probably are overstated somewhat, however, as recent developments in the1-ui of output of computers and In th* Improvements in quality of Soviet machines show that this equipmentector of theindustry which, while presently lugging behind domestic needs, is vigorous and ntrong. because of the apparently strictof computer time to projects ofriority, presentof digital computers probably have not seriously tuux>credresearch efforts or military projects.
cf Electronic Coag-gers
the USSR, as in the US and other Industrial nations, the electro mechanical and electronic analog computers became stock items ofuction well in advance of the stored program digital machine, although
at present the digital computer is economically more significant in both the US and the USSR. In the USSR, however, thla point was reached only inwhereas in the US the spaas! value ofof digital computers surpassed the value of analog types several years ago. This heavier emphasis on analog machines in the USSR, coupled with the relatively small total production effort incompared with that In the US, has placed the USSR in aof general short supply of digital computers insofar as wide-scale use in low-priority areas is concerned.
Although approximatelyercent of the annual value of digital computers produced in the US are used in routine problems of business statistics and data handling, tho remainingercent, which is devoted to military, scientific, and engineering purposes, is still far in excess of tho total annual Soviet production of digital esult, the USSR has been unable to utilize digital computers to the same extent as the US in other thou high-priority efforts. In spite of widely publicized plans for extending the use of computers, nonmilitary applications are still largely in the planning or testing phase. Experimental applications are underway in the automation of the chemical, oil, steel, and machine toolin economic planning and accounting; in automatic language translation; in weather forecasting; and in medical diagnosis. applications of computers in these ureas can be expectedthe current Seven Year Plan.
In the USSR, electronic computer centers ore being established at dispersed locations to be used as local computational centerside variety of economic, industrial, and scientific problems. Ultimately It is planned that each oblast will have its own local computer center. nd Strela digital computers and the EMU serlos of analog computers apparently ore standard items for use in existing computer centers.
The primary computer center of the USSR is the scientific and technical center of the Academy of Sciences in Moscow. This centortrela computerESM as wellery large analogcontaining JOO operational amplifiers. These amplifierstated accuracyercent. In addition to this primary center, there are upproximatelyther computer centers In the USSR specialized to serve different localities and different branches of industry. Some of these centers ore closely associated withand higher technical schools or with scientific research institutes and laboratories. Although it In planned that thecenters will allocate time for industrial and economicwork, little progress has been noted as yet on the large-scale use of computer centers for these purposes. An economic Journal
of0 complained that serial production of electronicfor statistical accounting, economic planning, and production management had not been initiated as of According to another report, it ia not only the development of electronic computers that is retarding the plan for the automation of industry but also the development of other devices for application to
The Seven Year Plan emphasizes the need for the development and production of electronic computers for tho control of industrialbecause of the role of electronic computers in industrialital factor in increasing production. Sectors of the economy reported to be first in line for automation include thesteel, and oil industries and the electric power network. Research is being curried on for the automation of these industries.
In the steel Industry, analog computer* will be applied tosteel and open-hearth furnaces for control of the fuel-air ratio and the fuel mixture when different ruels are Acomputer was developed for the automatic control of electric steel-smelting/
9 an electronic computer was In process of development for the control of electric power networks. The formulated plan la to dosign an electronic computer that will control electric power flow in the contemplated united power network for the European part of the USSR. 3J/
In the chemical and oil-refining Industries, industrial control will first be effected In shops where working conditions are harmful to In the oil industry an analog computer, the EIS, was developed and phased into operation8 for determining both the number of oil wella and the method of extraction according to the form and volume of the/
n the rubber goods industry, the rubber footwear plant in Moscow bad an automatic control and signaling machine, thehich guides lt8 presses producing rubber footwear. It is planned that the MARS machine will soon be placed In serial/
In the machine tooling of metal ports, the use of program control of machine tools is capable of reducing the time for processingoercent, accordingtatement by Khrushchev. Ul/ Analog computers for program control of machine tools were exhibited at the Brussels World's Fair This equipment was not production equipment but woo built In Institutes, other electronic computers to be used in automation Include the transistorized analog computer
or controlling production processes and the Kiev digitalfor computing production processes. Ug/
Weather forecasting with the use of electronic computersIs carried out on an experimental basis. The shortage of computer tine available on high-speed computers for this purpose is hampering numerical forecasting research in the USSR. Theeneral-purpose computer used for veather forecasting, but machine
8 lifted. The alow Pogoda computer, installed at the Central Institute of Forecasting in Moscows well as
the Granlt computer, are specialized computers used for weatherhg/
In the USSR, as in the US, general-purpose digital computersfor research in mechanical language translation. machine translation began In Moscow5 and in Leningrad At least six Soviet research facilities- are known to beon machine translation. Uk/ At the presentESMbeing used part time for Engllah to Russian translation andcomputer part time for French to Russian. For purposesthese computers are considered to be slow and havesmall storage capacity. ord English vocabulary iswith the BESM, although tho computerpecial machinetorage0 toand greater speed wasreaders have not
yet been produced In the USSR,ipher readerpeediphers per second has been developed for reading such items as checks, invoices, and bank
The USSR also has used electronic computers for medical purposes such as diagnosis, brain simulation research, and the study of nervous activity related to fatigue. At the Kiev computer center, computers were used for diagnosis for heart surgery, by/
The implementation of plans for widor use of analog and digital computers in nonmilitary elements of the economy of the USSR ison the success attained In meeting planned increases incapacity. The planned growth of computer production does
The Institute of Mechanics and Computer Techniques in Moscow Steklov Mathematical Institute of the Academy of SciencesUSSR; the Linguistics Institute or the Academy of SciencesUSSR in Leningrad; the Machine Translation Laboratory ofUniversity; the Computing Center or the Academy ofthe Armenian SSR in lerevan; ond the Electronics, Automation,3clence5the Georgian
significant annual increment in available computerOf which car. be increasingly allocated to economic und As an example, the estimated production of digital computerscould have been as much aa 2'dC Jral-II computers or Rather than either of these extremes, It isnits of ther Ural-IT and fromoould have been producedo, accountingillion rubles. Theillion rubles would Lo 'x-iits luc-
f small numbers of special types, such as the Kiev,M-II,
an i tho
It is believed that at least1 the Urul-II and0 will be the principal serially produced digital computers. By2 theesearch and developmentullycomputer probably will result in another change in production lire atodcls. Also considered probable is that this change will bring with it additional improvements in machine organization, input-output devices, and memory capabilities which in turn will further enhance the over-all capabilities of computers used in military and scien-tinc applications. In particular, some improvement should occur in the capability of Soviet digital machines to handle large quantities Of data more rapidly and with more flexible programing. roduction of digital computers will continue to grow more rapidly than production of analog computers. The use of digital cora-
,.
financial accounting} and for industrial control probably will remain small compared with military and scientific uses and will continue to lag considerably behind the West There probably will be,oticeable increase within theears in the use O- computers for regional and aggregative economic planning and for other governmental activity such as census work and computations of
IV. JJovietomputers
Soviet trade in electronic computers is economicallyalthough individual exports have been widely publicized. On several occasions the USSR has attempted to import Western computers, but the trade control restrictions on such items have limited actual purchaseselatively small number, involving computers andcomponents of modest capability. There has been little interest shown by the USSR in purchasing significant numbers of nonembargoed computers.
Within the Sine-Soviet Bloc the USSR is by far the dominantof electronic computers. ew Soviet computers, both analog and digital types, have been exported to other Bloc countries. Exports
of digital computers hare been vldely publicized. The USSR also has participated in the development of coeputer production in otherof the Bloc and has trained numerous computer specialists from these countries. Intra-Bloc negotiations and transactions concerning electronic computers have been observed between the USSR and Communist China, East Germany, Poland, Rumania, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary.
The USSR plans too East Germany for its Academy of Sciences. Analog computers also may be sold to Bast Germany for use in German Czechoslovakiaomputer in Two Czechoslovak computer specialists have workedoviet computer specialist on miniaturization of electronic circuits, hp/
Poland and Rumania have been aided by Soviet experts and completed the construction of their first electronic computers The first Polish computer was made for the Polish Hydrometeorologlcal Institute. Tho first Rumanian computer,peeder second, was developed nt tho Rumanian Polvteehflleal50/
InHungary vac in the process of building thelectronic digital computer, using Soviet components, after having been unable toi/ 9 Soviet offero Czechoslovakiaublesubles below the price of these computorfl reportedly in the USSR
The USSR also has given Communist China considerable aid loand building digital computers. In training Chinesein computer technology in the USSR, and in providing Soviet computer components. Top Soviet computer specialists have traveled frequently to China, andhinese students were reported studying computing design at the Institute of Precision Mechanics andTechnology in Moscow Models of thend BESM-II digital computers have been built at
The most widely publicized computer transaction with the Free World was the Soviet giftomputer to India. Although final deliveryears ofter the planned delivery date6 and although many difficulties and delays were experienced in installing the machine, the USSR reaped valuable propaganda results from the gift. Final assembly of this machine was completedjJ Yugoslavia, another importeroviet computer, willoviet analog computer typen the State Secretariat for National Defense, largely for simulation of aerodynamic problems. $U/
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append'!a ij
SOVIET TEBKmoLOGY FOR COMPUTERS
Id the US the basic descriptive terminology for computers is more simplified than Soviet terminology, which uses several terms for the same meaning. Electronic computers are divided into two types: analog and digital. Computers are either general purpose or specialized.
The general class of electronic computers, including both analog and digital types, has been described in the USSR by the following terms:
Elektronnyye matcmatichesklye mashinylectronic computers.
Matematlcheskaya mashinaan electronic computer.
Digital computers have been described in the following Soviet terms:
Universal'naya elektronnaya matematlcheskayaeneral-purpose electronic computer, digital.
Elektrounaya vychislitel'naya mashinaelectronic digital computer. Used to describe the StreJa,, and the Ural.
Elektrounaya schetnaya mashinaelectronic digital computer. Used to describe the MESM and the BESM.
Schetno-reshayushchayu mashina digital, computer.
Bystrodeystvuyushchaya elektronnaya matematicheskaya mashiiuihigh-speed digital computer.
Diskretnaya mashinadigital (discrete) computer.
Mashina diskretnaya deystviyadigital (discrete) Computer.
Tsiirovaya mashinadigital computer.
Universal'naya avtoooticheiikaya tsifrovaya vychlslitel'naya mashinageneral-purpose automatic digital computer.
Analog computers have been described by the following terms in the USSR:
Analogovaya mntcmntlchcakaya mashinanalog computer.
Analogovaya matcmatlchciikaya mashina obshchego priceneniyaeneral-purpose analog computer.
Elektronnaya mashina nepereryvnaya deystvlyaanalog computer (machine of continuous nature).
Blektricheskaya blochnaya nelincynaya sodeliruyu-shchaya ustanovkaanalog computer composed of blocks or modular units.
Elektronnaya modeliruyuohehaya ustanovkanalog computer.
Spetslalizirovannaya elektronnaya mashinapecial-purpose electronic computer. Used in discussing analog computers.
Other Soviet terms associated with computer production oro the following:
Schetnaya mashinaalculator.
Schetno-analltlcheskayB maahloapunch-card type of calculating and statistical eachire.
Expansions of abbreviations for specific models of Soviet analog and digital computers are as follows:
BESMol'shaya (or byntrudeystvuyushchaya)schetnayii mashinalarge or high-speed digital electronic computer.
EMUElektromodollruyimiiehaya ustunovkaelektro-modeling apparatus, analog computer series.
MARSMaOhinu uvtomiti eheskogo regalignaiiyatsiimachine for automatic regulation and signaling.
MESMMalaya elektronnayamashinassialJ digital computer.
MNashina neperc ryvnofionalog {continuous action} coraputer-
TsEMTsifrovaya elsktrcunaya mashir.adigital computer.
MEDIODCLO-Ti'
I. Derivation of the Aggregate Index and Value Series
The Index of growth and estimated value of Soviet production of all types of computing and mathematical machines (Includingoffice machines)s shown inf The index of growth for these years as shown inas first constructed on the basis of official Soviet announcements. According to these announcements,s token to represent the value of productionhen the Index of production of computing and mathematical machines// The index of planned growth for the value of production of this category of equipment5 compared9/ Intermediate0omputed at the average wnmiAi rate of growth for the two plan periods. In order to link these twoate of growthomparedas required. This rate was estimated to haveercent, the implied average annual rate of growth necos-oary to meet the goals of the Seven Year Plan. The data inf Tubleepresenting the ruble value of production, was obtained by opplylng6 value of production of hhO million rublesfrom the announcements of Seven Year Plano the Index of production derived as above. Although this value series Is basedtatement madeomputer prices for planningapparently had not, as latendergone any significant change5 prices. The value estimates are therefore presented in terms5 rubles. The shift in cost structure brough* on by changes In technology and learning curves und by economies of scale in thin rapidly developing industry make the value comparisons over time, whether they be either in constant or in current prices, ox-tremely difficult to interpret. This situation is equally true for the US. The real volume of production is believed to be mostportrayed by projecting the value ln constant prices, and this practice was adopted for this report.
As an independent chock on the announced value of production of this category ofalculation of the value of output8 was obtained on the basis of the estimated labor force in the principal plants producing computing and mathematical machinery. The estimated average annual output per warkor6 for allof the electronics/ was applied to the number of workers engaged in production of computers and
ollows on p. th.
-
O li a Ii li
Tul
Estimated Value of Production of Computing and Mathematical Machines In the USSH a/
Total Production of Computing and Mathematical Machines
(3)
Value d/5 Rubles
Electronic Computers sJ
Value d/5 Rubles)
20
computation, data were rounded to tve significant digits.
analog and digital computers with associatedand storage equipment and electromechanical office This series includes value of Input, output, and storageassociated with computers and was derived by deflating theseries by the estimated value of electromechanicalproduced.
d. Although the method of estimating this value series was baaedigurease yeart should be noted that computer pricing for plan purposes probably lo still done in terms5 rubles, which may be converted at the rateubles to
- U
calculators. The ultimate oflabor force wan based partly on reports of employment plus an estimate of the labor force engaged in production of computers in scientific research Institutes and at newly organized plants.' These data indicate that production6 equaled0 Billion rubles. Although the figure for the value of annual output per capita used In this calculation might not strictly apply to this sector of the Industry, It isloalid first approximation. The estimated figureillion rubles corresponds closely to that derived from official planillionnd tbe official announcement has been accepted as one that accurately represents the value ofof this category of equipment
II. Distribution of Product by Category
fhows the estimated value of production of electronic computersubcategory of the series for "computing and mathematical machines.** The series for electronic computers alooc was derived by deflating the aeries for the total category by the estimated value of production of electroaechanleal office Tableurther division of the value of electronic computers between digital and analog types. ubstantial amount of Information was exploited In the derivation of Tablehe primary abjective was to provide an independent check on the data In Tablehich were derived purely from official Soviet sources, rather than to estimate these subcategories with precision. Hie absence of some particularly important details, coupled with the ambiguity that surrounds the classification of products in this area of production generally, results in Individual production aeries that ere less reliable than tne estimates of the aggregate value ofshown in Table 2. The results, however, are believed to be both useful and generally valid, aa they provide indicators of the relative magnitude of production end changing patterns of growth of the two major categories of electronic computers and are essentially confirmed by alternative estimating methods.
a. Produe-ioii of Electromechanical Office Machines
Inoviet statements relating to the category ofand mathematical machines it is clear that at least some types of standard electromechanical business calculators are included. Furthermore, information obtained Creel both the press and the East-West
See Appendix A.
ollows on
Estimated Value of Production of Electronic Analog and Digital Computers in tbe USSR a/
AnalogComputerp
Valueb/
100
5 Rubles) 5 Rubles)
U
computation, data were rounded to two significant digits
the method of estimating this value series uas basedfigurease yeart Bhould be noted thatTor plan purposes probably is still done in terms ofwhich moy be converted at the rateubles to
exchange program disclose that some of this type of equipment isin the some plants that produce electronic computers. details do not permit, however, moreery rough estimate of the total value of Such machines produced. An official of the Penzo plant stated that8 approximatelyercent of the total production of that plant was devoted to thin type of equipment. Similar information for other plants Is not nvailablc. The value of production of calculators at the Penza plant represents onlyercent of the total production of computing and mathematical mo-chines in theillion rubles)$ and moy be taken as a
- to -
Giinimutn estimate Of such production, Trie upper limit of the range probably would not be more than the value of calculators that would be produced if all computer plants were devoting the same relative Share of production to calculators as the Penza plant, or an upper limit ol" aboutercent of the value of production of the entireillion rubles). It is believed that both the upper and the lower limits are extreme cases and that the actual estimate will lie toward the midpoint of the range. Although this midpoint fig-are of million rubles8 production appears toery modest quantityation of this slae, the USSK is known toery heavy importer of calculatorsmports from East Germany alone totaledillion rubles), in the absence of furtherthe figure ofercent was acceptedest estimate of production Cf office calculators, and the total series5 was deflated by this amount to obtain the series for electronicalone. This constant deflator is believed to be most valid for theS-6O.
3. Distribution of Production of Electronic Computers Between Analoft and Digital Types
The estimated product mix between analog and digital computers contained inas derived by constructing an index of the growth of analog computers and by applying to this index tlie value of production of analog computersB. The index was constructed from Soviet -lata which stated that production of analog computers5 wuoimes that/ and that production is planned to double& The rate of growth implied by these data is decreasing over lime. Itassumed that this rate wouldgeometrically; therefore, to describe tills growth function, the
where: gonstant rate of growth
ii ecrease factor for tlie rate of
growth over tiac (average anr.uai)utput in the base year
utput in the nth year,an
(yoi?)
The solution of this equation, given the two sets of data^ and, yields values3, respectively. When the function is plotted from)he index for analog computers shown Ins obtained.
Toe derived value or production of both digital and analog computers in the USSR8 was hCQ million rubles, as shown in Table 2. The product mixccording to Soviet statements, was approximately equally divided between digital and The value of production of each type of computer8 "as therefore estimatedillion rubles. The value series contained inas constructed from these data and from the Indexes.
c' Cumulative Value of Electronic Computers
Available data on the price and physical volume of production of electronic computers have been used to calculate estimates of the minimum cumulative value of analog and digital computers produced. The totals may then be compared with the cumulative value of computers that was derived by the method described in A, above.
1- Value of Digital Computers
The total number of digital computers produced during this period varies slightly according to the source used, but the majority of intelligence reports and estimates of other agencies indicate that this number is approximately/ The majority of these computers are the small-size Ural-I, production of which by the end8 has been reported to be not morenits." The unit price of this item is reported toillion rubles,nits woulda total value of production of atillion rubles. of the number of Strela computers produced by the end8 generally agreeigure of aboutnits,eported price ofillion rubles per unit.*- otal value for production of the Strela units, therefore, is approximatelyillion rubles. About two or three units of the BESM type of computer were constructed in the USSR before the end8 and perhaps six or seven units of0 computer had been produced, although these were not all in use by 0 and BESM are large computers of the same general size as the Strela, although both the BESM and0 are faster and more flexible machines. S industrialist who has visited the Soviet Plants and has seen0 reported that this computer would be priced at perhaps three times as much as the Ural-II {for which the planned price of serially produced units was toillion rubles) andrice ofillionillion rubles each for serially produced units ofecently acquired Soviet documentrice ofillion rubles for/
" Uce If, C,bove. See Appendix A,bove.
- kS
a price0 nr.on rubles vas acceptedeasonable estimate of tho price cf tbe BESM, an this machineontemporary nf the Strela anduch better machine. Production of BESM0 computers would thereforeinimum total value of about million rubles. In addition to the machines so farumber of Intermediate and small-size general-purpose and special-purpose digital machines (such as, the Kriata.il, the l'ogoda, the Grunit, the Getun, and the TsEM-l) have been produced inof one to four each. Theas reported to be in serial productionut the quantity of output is not known. onservative estimate of the total number of such units lu uao by the enda^ed on Soviet open sources and other intelligence information, lo Ho Individual unit price le applicable for thla category, but the capabilities of these machines compared with thendicate that their range of value would vary from about oce-balf to perhaps one and one-half times thericeillion rubles. In the absence of more specific details, un approximate average unit cootillion rubles was assumed to be representative. This estimateotal value of aboutillion rubles.
It was therefore estimated that the cir.lmum value of digital computers producedas* million rubles, orercent less thou the estimateillion rubles derived from ar. analysis of the official Soviet growth statistics shown In Table 3. Because the former estimate wao derivedounting and costing procedure that involved the acceptanceum unit data and sometimes indirect price information, the value bo derived would be expected to be inexact and somewhat less than the actual value of production. The relationship between the two figures is consistent with this expectation and generallythe conridenee in the validity of the latter estimate.
?.. Value of Electronic Analog ComputersO-56
An exchange of computer specialists between the USSR and the US In9 resultedtatement by Soviet officials thatlectronic analog computers were then in use in the As there was no significant production0 and as no important trade In analog computers bos it Is believed that this figuro represents the approximate total of domestic production-
The large numbers of these machines tQat have seenand the wide variation in types make it impracticable to estlmute numbers and prices of individual machines LounulAttve total value as wau done for the digital computers. An
ultcrnative use of the above data was chosen toethod for checking the consistency of the derived scries against available Information on numbcra and prices of machines produced. Thiswas as follows: (a) the total value of analog computers estimated to have been produced7 million rubles) was calculated from Tablend (b) on the basis of the Soviet statement thatnalog computers were in use lon implied average price ofubles was derived. This price range con then be compared with the characteriDtics of Soviet machines and with US information on analog computers to determine whether or not it Is consistent with information on Soviet and US practice.
Available Information on prices of Sovietrice range of0 rubles for very small
nonlinear computers for solving equations of up to tho 6th order to as much asillion rublesarge unit for the study of complex problems of space and motion involving equations of up to the VOlh order. The types that arc known to have been ia serial production, however,arrower range of prices of0 toubles. One of the earliest analogplaced lo production was thewith several hundred units producedriceubles. On the basis ofthe most important series of Soviet analog computers arc the EMU types. This computer may be built up by combining standard modular unitsariety of wayz toange of capabilities. EMU computers are priced0 and several million rubles, depending on the particular configuration used. Most machines in this series have been the small and medium-size models, with the average price falling In the rangeubles. Analog computers produced in seriesor which prices arc available Include theubles; theubles; the0 rubles; theubles; and theubles. The Implied average price rangeubles is consiatent with the above unit prices ofproduced analog computers ln the USSR.
Analogous data for US production of computers yield a
range of prices for Individual scientific andanalog computers. Prices varyew thousand to several hundred thousand dollars. The average price of all ouch computers ln the US ttajkO/ Converting this figure to Soviet rublesateubles per dollar, estimated for the industrial electronic equipment sector of the Soviotindustry,igure/ or slightly
Calculated from data contained in Appendix A,bove.
mora chun the cottmnted range0ubles for Soviet analog computers. US analog computers generally are slightly more expensive, for, according to available information, there are more hlgh-precistcn analogs In serial production in tile US than in tbe USSH.
Although the above procedure lo an imprecise method of analyzing the aggregate value of an unknown product nix, available information does Indicate that the pattern of Soviet production of analog coaputoreonsistent with an average price ofubles. The fact that this price alsoelatively consistent degree of comparability with Ufl practice further support* the acceptance of the estimates derived in Tablesnd I.
ollowing the classification entry and designatedave the following significance:
Source of
Doc
- Documentary
Confirmed by other sources
-
reliable
Probably true
-
reliable
Possibly true
-
reliable
Doubtrul
-
usually reliable
Probably false
-
reliable
Cannot be Judged
-
be Judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments and organizations; copies or translations of such documentstaff officer; or information extracted from such documentstaff officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the cited document; those designated 'RR" are by the author of this No -RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document.
Except for CIA finished intelligence, all sources used in this report are evaluatednless other-vise indicated.
Soviet Information Bureau. Daily Review of the iJovlct Press.
IV,0..
CIA. CS, i?nfo. Aviation Week, II.
Commerce. Bureau of Census. Series U. Electronics,9 U.
5.
. U. Eval. Doc. Pravda,. 2. U.
i
ukhgalterskly uchet.81 6. Air: iteVratt. ri
6. U. 7.
CIA. CB,nfo
CIA. nfo C. CIA. *. hi. C. Planovoye khor.yayatvu, no- ^ U. Pravda,. 2. U.
13- CIA. 1nfo C.
CIA. Info C.
CIA. fc. CIA. C.
CIA. C.
CIA. 1 C.
CIA. C.
CIA. FDD Summary,,. 5- OFF USB.
o6 OFF USE.
7 U.
16. OFF - 2U. o2 OFF USE.
Bukhgaltfrskly uchet, U.amp-eftonor.ichs3kaya U. CIA. FDD Summary, . 2'i. U-
Commerce Ballistic Research Laboratories.omesticui
i.
12-
21.
3
1;
villi rwu '1 P- U.
no0nfo OFF USE.
OFF USB.
CIA. 0.
CIA. S.
Ct Brit, BBC. Summary of World Broadcasts, Pt I, Supp no 9,
U.
Hew York Tinea,- u*
hlzn',-- U-
Ct Brit, BBC. Summary of Worldt I, Supp no 9,
U.
, pt I,- u.
Evezdq,. 2. 6nfo C.
CIA. CO,nfo C.
CIA. FBIS, OPF USE.
FDD Scientific Information Report, "
FBIS, OFF USE.
FDD Summary
FBIS, no OFF USE.
Ul. CTA. 0, info C-
42. CIA- FBIS, no6 OFF USE.
'O- CIA. FBIS, Dally Report (USSR and Eastern9
p. OFF USE. Eval. BR CIA. 2nfo CIA. nfo CIA. 2nfo h. ,- 4. U. 'ifl. CIA. CS,nfo S. Eval. Field 3-
CIA. CS, info Field 3.
KissilcB and Rockets, vol2 U. 51 CTA. CS, '1nfo Field 3.
FBIS, Daily .Report (Far'i OFF CS,nfo
Eval. Field 2.
CS,nfo Fieldstatistiki,. U.
CIA. CS, S/
55- CIA. CS, info .
56. Prlborostroyenlye, no- 9- U.
Air. U.
CIA. CO, OFF Priborostroyeniye,. 9- U.
CIA." r:Liry rr: Nov p. . C.
CTA. RAND. . Klehtrlcheslvo, no. U.
crA. cs, O. PAND. . U.
Ibid.
Ibid.
CIA. FBIS, OFF USE. CIA. FDD Summary>. U.
t al. Radio nashcgo dnya (Radio in Our
,.
Spravocluiik tscn na utroitel'nyye materborudovanlye (Price Book for Construction Materials and Equipment),
U.
Th)d.
RANI). . U.
Radio, U.
CIA. FDD Summary5. 8l. OFF h. Znamya, U. CIA. 9 C.
CTA. FDD Sumaiury5. 8l. OFF USE.
US Joint Publications Research Service. N,
8 U.
CS,nfo S,
CIA. 9 Info Jannd earlier. C.
FDD Scientific Information Report, no
. U.
RAND. . U.
CIA. FDD Summaryh C. CIA. - OFF Planovoye khozyaystvo, noty- CIA. FDD Summary OFF USE.
Ot Brit, BBC. -Summary of World Broadcasts,t I,
6 Ct Brit, BBC. Summary of World Broadcasts, not I,
Ibid.
CIA. , OFF USE.
CIA. CO, 'info C.
CIA. 8 info
HAWD. . U.
8u. rTiborostroyeniyc,. 9. U. CIA. 5 OFF USE.
Priborostroyeniyc,. 9- U.
Ibid.
USSR, Central Bureau ofnformation of Instrument
Building and Means of Automation. Elektronnyye mateaatlctie-skiye mashlny, pribory infranizkogo diapasona chastot (Electronic Matnenatical Machines, Ultra-Low Frequency U.
10k. Radio, no U.
Piiborontroyontyc, U.
Ct Brit, BBC. Summary of World Broadcasts, not I,
US3R, - hcskoya U.
Ibid.
CIA. 8 Info RAM). . U.
Ibid.
'
CiA. CS,- S. Rval. Field 3.
no II.
CJA. OFF USE.
ar oO, p. to. Ibid.
Krafsnuya tvcrda, U.
Radlotekhnika, no. Vf. U.
RAND. . U. Ogonck, U.
U9- Promyshlcnno-ekonomichcskaya U.
Problcmy kybornetikl, no. U.
CIA. Info S. CIA. FDD Sucmary no 1. OFF USE.
CS,. S. Eval. Field CIA. FDD Suneary no OFF USE.
* OFT. o OFF USE.
Air. 5 U.
RAND. . U.
Control Engineering, U. Trud, U.
- Ibid.
U.
CIA. FBISally Report (USSR and Eastern7 OFF USE.
Pravda. Ik U.
, The Electronics Industry In the USSR,
O,T. S.
- 9- U.
no-ekonoialchesk)tyn gazeta, . CIA. Info- S. C.
Original document.
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