THE SITUATION IN BRAZIL

Created: 8/28/1961

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CENTRAL. INTELLIGENCE AGENCY. C.

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MEMORANDUM

SUBJECT: The Situation in Brazil

1. The political situation is Brazil has deteriorated rapidly since the resignation of President Quadros on The causes for the resignation were probably- various, aad included the peculiar temperament of Quadros himself, who is known for hasty and dramatic moves. (On one occasion during his election campaign he "resigned" from the conflict,

2. One contributing factor to Quadros'resignation was the

public allegation by the Governor of GuanaRio de Janeiro)

that Quadros was trying to strengthen his own power at the expense

of the legislature. During the preceding week or two, moreover.

there had been noticeably increased grumbling about Quadros1

foreign policy, in particular his flirtation with the Communist bloc.

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He may well have resignedit of temper, hoping that he would be called back by popular deoaand, but perhaps also feeling that if he was not called back, the country would get the chaos which he felt it deserved.

There has been no country-wide appeal to Quadros to return. On the contrary, there haveumber of reports that the voters who supported him feel themselves betrayed, that people have become tired of his whims, and that they are disgusted by his abrupt withdrawal and fearful of the future.

Consequently, attention became focussed after theupon tha possible succession of Goulart, the

finishing

visit to Communist China. Marshal Denys (Quadros* Minister of Defense, and the most respected officer in the Brazilian armed forces) and Marshal Lott (Quadros' opponent in the election) apparently held conversations about the succession but were unable to agree. Denys, supported by some of the military, appeared determined to prevent the accession of Goulart. Lott, supported by others ofthe military, desired to facilitate the accession of Goulart in the interest of preserving thehough he had no enthusiasm for the Vice-President's political views.

Sunday,enys arrested Lott andhis associates. It is also reported that Denys sent ato the legislaturehange in theprevent Goulart irom succeeding, and threatening to establishjunta ii the legislature does not act. However, hehavo received little civilian support for this measure. reports are that Denys and his associates have agreedGoulart to assume the Presidency on condition thatbe submitted to the military for prior approval, andsever all ties with the Communists. Meanwhile the president

of the Chamber of Deputies, MazziUi, holds the office of President, for whatever it may be worth.

has reached Paris on his way home from thebut has delayed there and not yet made clear whether hehis journey. Much depends on his next move. Shouldthere would according to the constitution beays: perhaps Denys would run for President, Quadrosa come-back by this means, or Kubitachek, the politicianbroadest support mightandidate. It is also possible thatamendment" might be passed providing for thea head of state by the congress without popular consultation.

upon how he sought to do so. If he tried to proceed directly to Brasilia, Marshal Denys would probably arrest him, unless prior agreement had been reached, and then move to take over full authority,

with promises of new electionseturn to legality at aome future

If Goulart returned to his own political stronghold of Porto Alegre and were supported by the military forces now there, political chaos in Brazil could continue for some time.

6. On the whole, it now appears to us that Marshal Denys iaery strong position, andair chance of achieving his aims, in one way or another. He enjoys great prestige with the military, and the military will almost certainly be the dominating element in the immediate situation, though it should be remembered that there is introng tradition against overt military exercise of political power. Goulart has legality on his side, but little else;fl

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of marked political courage, or one likely toitter and

effective political fight. Marshal Lott appears, for the time being,

be out of the picture.

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