Current Intelligence Weekly Summary
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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CURRKNT iHTSLLiaKNCE WilBKLY SUtfMfifcy
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US clllUry buildup. UK attainment of iif superiority, and what Tshombe views as tbe likelihood of an "all-out" UK offensive have not Induced inm to pull back his troops, or to consider seriously coning to torus withitbe central Congo government. The UK action hia instead resultedatangan buildup,esolve to "fight to the finish." Katanganhave called for the populace to "poison their arrows" and to "pickwede, aa Irishman, andhere are enough to go arouad." ilitary defeat could
get tbe Katanga regime to negotiate on anything other than its own terms, namely the maintenance of Katangan autonomy. Even If Tshombe'a forces were dispersed, guerrilla activity In his name might continue.
not certain. If Tshombe. however, attempted to compromise Katanganthere ls no evidence he ls so mlnded--he would almost certainly be shoved Into the background. If oot ousted. Tshombe has threatened that In the event of an all-out struggle he will engagoscorched earth" policy.destruction of the important Katangan mining In order to denyvirees to.
ahnabd wTsresTsTT^^tnecounsol of Onion Miniere officials that be negotiate with Adoula.
eek of fighting, including ulr attacks, Katangan
military morale seems to remain high. Katangan forces are in control of the greater part of the city; the US holds certain positions Innotably the UK headquarters--but is concentrated at and Is In control of the EHsabethvllle airport. Nevertheless, Katanga troops and aircraft have been able to cause some damage in night attacks. UK Strength lnIS now; Tshombe's forces" white mercenaries.
The U3 airlift of UKcoatinucS totrong anti-American reaction within tbe Katangan government. Tshombe continues to encourage and capitalize on antl-US and anti-UN sentiment, obviously hoping that sufficient Western pressure could bo exerted on the OH to avoid an all-out attack. Tshombe. or his advisers,to project the Image of Tshombetanch om-munlst. African leader in charge of the only stable province ln tbe Congo, who has been unjustly attackedK military force bent on uooking revenge for the Katangan "victory" last September. Tshombe was quick tn charge that the damage reportedly done to Union Miniere installations by ON aircraft was clear proof that tbe US was trying to destroy tbe Katangan economy, again boping to produce additional pressures on the UK. There ls no good evidence that the damage was dellberato. The UK Command Is, however, probably persuaded that Onion Klnlore Is solidly behind Katangan resistance and that lt "controls" Tshombe.
UN intentions and capabilities tain uncertain. Opinion appears
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a* to what ebould be done and what can be done. In See Yorfc, Secretary General Thant has eaphaalaed that tbe UN baa "Halted" objectives, that lt doea not vlsb to crush Tsboabe. but to restore law sod order, to protect UN mllltsry forces la Katanga, and bring about a reconciliation between Tsboabe and adoula. Ouster of tbe white mercenaries ls allegedly not an immediate objective.
The limited objectives envisioned by Thant, however.
are not always subscribed to by some of tbe field officials. Resentment over being forcedease-fire last September remains strong among UN personnel in the Congo, particularly asong tbe Indian troops. Indian Brigadier Raja has been reported aa eager to "clean up" Blissbeth-vllle. The Indian charge, ashman, assigned to Leopoldville, is la Bllsabethville urging vigorous UN military action.
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CUKRK.Vr ICTELLIGEKCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
discussing an all-nut effort against tha city, ouse-to-house cleanup.
Late reports indicated tbe U* "offensive" was scheduled to begin onecember. The UK move could result in heavy civilian casualties and extensive properly damage, and maya long-term guerrilla-type war. beyond tbe Ml ltles to control,
earns tnat mere appear* again toangerous tendency in tbe UK Command, as there was last September, toKatangan capacity andto resist. UN officials, however, may believeecond retreat would be tbe practical end of any prospects to bring Tabonbe to reintegrate Katanga on anything but his own
UK mil ready have public and In Brussels and Salisbu of Western vails that result only the UN must tttlenent
European Reaction
itary actions al-provoked strong officialondon, Paris, ry. in most capitals Europe tbe view pre-further UN action will ln cbaos and that workegotiated
Ion Is regarded as naked "aggression." There ls little understanding of tbe UKand there is real concern for the personal safety of0 Belgians ln Katanga, as well as for Belgian economic interests. While Brussels does not favor and is not aiding Katangan secession, It continues toolution of the Congo problem on the basis of peaceful reconciliation witb Tshombe basedederal Congo. Tbe Belgian Government is afraid strong pressure on Tshoaibe could result la confiscation of
Adoula, in Leopoldvllle, ose chances for remaining in
Belgian enterprises, notably th< Union Mini ore complex.
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
rest largely on victory over Tsbombe1, ls clearlya UN success in Elisabeth-ville. Frustrated by the in-cospetence and Incapacity of bis own Congo Amy forces toa successful Invasion of Katanga, he ls hoping the UK will do the job for his.
ists" in bis government may additionally induce him to order Geonral Mobutu's forces, now in Basal Provinca, back into northwestern Katanga. ove to reduce Gizenga'a claims to credit for ths Congo Army's EK-asslsted takeover in northern Katanga, Adoula has sent antl-Tsnombe' Baleba leader Jason Sendee to take administrative control.
Congo Army and/or UK forces remain ln control of the northern Katanga towns of Alberivllle, Nyunzu. Kiesbs, and Kabalo, and tbe more southerly town of Manono. Both forces have so farontest ofontrol of Kongolo, but an attack may be Imminent.
Stanleyville
Adoula remains cautious about provoking an openwith Gizenga, although the Stanleyville leader bas clearly separated himself from the Leopoldvllle government, 9 November speech Gizenga criticised Adoula for working with the "Imperialists" and as having failed lo resolve tbe Katanga problem, and called on Congo Army troops to follow his, Adoula's cautioneflection of his inability either toGizenga's support of the government or to dismiss bis. It lseflection of tbe prevailing attitude ln the government and parliament that the Gizenga issue ls secondary to the problem of reducing Tshombe.
10 ound'nurk furensure of Gizengaenable him to fror. his pout remier.
Adouls will pusT^TTeTcTTon before parliamentary sentimentor prior to favorable news from Ellsabethvllle.
There have been no further details of tho Soviet offer of
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military aid aad financial to Adoula. who has recently accredited Soviet, Polish, and Czoch diplomats. Should the UN action fall to bring Tshombe Into alignment with Leopoldville, theon Adoula vould probably be such that be could only avoid ouster by graspingaid.
Tshonbc-'ss Glzenga's most Important weapon in bis effort to undermine Adoula's position. Olzenga, nevertheless, remains at least tenporarlly deserted by his former political supporters no* In tbe Adoula government, and personal rivalries have his first efforts to bring about an amalgamation ot Congo political parties under his control. What limited strength he commands is based on his claim to be the "heir" to Lumumba and his apparent ability tobyfunds to pay part of the Congo Army.
Gizenga continues to try to maintain himself as theanti-Western nationalist alternative to the Adoula. He apparently does not Intend to return toand continues to devote his attention to projecting himself as the true leader of tbe Congo Army "Invasion" of northern Katanga. He isto extend hisbeyond his Orlentale Province base into Kivu Province. Kuhiro, the provincialin Kivu, who was onceoverthrown by Gizenga, claimed onecember that Congo Army forces from Orientals responsive to Glaenga were moving into Kivu withf overthrowing his government.
It appears that in any event Adoula will continue to be in difficulty. Even if the UN were tolear victory over Tshombe, Adoula would still be faced with the problem of Gizenga and the radical nationalists ln his own govern-
Original document.
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