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Italy: Boss! andfor
the clamor for political and electoral reform ia Italy, two distinct voces have emerged, tbeUmberto Boui and The souths Leoluca Orlando Longtime outsiders, lhe two leaders bait prospered by outline the traditional parties on the defensive. Bul. because their respective organisations garnered enough votes in Aprils parliamentary electionresence in the legislature, tbey must cither show (bey can operate within ibe intern or mi losing supportj
Cultivating an Outsider Image Ai public sentiment hat turned against ibeChristian Democratic Parlyhe Socialist Parrynd the Democratic Party of (heand Orlando have carefully cultivated iheir images as political ouuidcr*.Orlandoongtime member of the DC he relinquished hit party membership1 and formed La Rete (The Nat) lo further bit political goals- Boui hu maintained his opposition from tbe outset by working (orecade to establish the Lcga Lombards (the Lombard League)orce for reform!
Boui and Orlando rely heavily on personal popularity to project iheir messages. Charismatic speakers, they actively seek the spotlight and easily draw crowds. Bothenchant for picking public fights with prominent politicians, gaining publicily andiheir images as men who will buck the system. Orlando, however, is usually seen as more moderate and well spoken lhaa Bossi. Moreover. US Embassy officials note that Orlando ia less caustic than Boui and.racticed pditxran, has been careful not to sever aD ties to the
Although Bossi and Orlando strongly believe that institutions! changes arc necessary, they have traveled markedly different paths to political prominence:
Bossi's humble beginnings have played directly into his imageman of thehe sonoor northern farmer, he never completed school.
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Current Government Crisis
egislative election In earlyhe government af Prime Minister GiuliO Andreottt resigned. The intricate process oftw cabinet has been made even more difficult since each party in the governing coalition hod lost votes,the coalitionholelim majority. Moreover. President Francesco Cosstga added to the confusion when he resigned immediately after Andreotli. Christian Democrat Oscar Luigt Scalfaro was elected President onay afterounds of balloting. He now has the task of nominal'rime minister.]
although he briefly studied medicine. Hegf low-paying jobs before jumping into poli-
lies./
Orlando comes fromprivileged background,him an unlikely figure to seek sweeping changes, in the stain* quo. Bornell-to-do family in Palermo, berivate Jesuit high school and lateraw degree from the University of Palermo. He also did gradsatc wort in Germany and England. Forecade be worked for the DC. advising prominent southern politician* and serving on the Palermo City Council.5 be was elected mayor of Palermo on the DC ticket.
ormidable Opposition Although both Bossi and Orlando have attacked the present political system and calledomplete overhaul of the government, neither has articulated a
full-scale plan to reorganize political and economic institutions. They have adopted different, broadto reform because of their contrastingperspectives:
Coming from the highly industrialized and wealthy north. Bossi has effectively portrayed Rome as an overly centralized bureaucracy that sends northern money to the underdeveloped and undeserving south. He also recognizes that voters arewiththe current partltoeraila (rule by the party) and bas successfully pushed for greater regional autonomy while simultaneously blaming the mayor parties for fostering inept government.
Because tbe mainstream parties are morein the south than in tbe north, Orlandoa different approach to institutionalthin directly attack ibeandpractices that Boss) abhors, Orlandoinstead on government corruption andHe also has blaslcd the Mafia,it has infiltrated all levels of government,the DC and the PS1 for the current slatebelieves
that UieMafia cannot be beaten until the political process is reformed and honesty restored in the governmeni. In our view, Orlando successfully plays upon fears of the Mafia in the south and has effectively designed his campaignmoralofthepeople.r
Achietnent*ale
Failure of tbe two leaden to detail far-reaching programs has not stopped voters from supporting (hem. In the legislative electionspril, the Lombard Leagueercent of the vote, and iu legislative presence mushroomed from two toepresentaiives, becoming ihe fourth-largest party in Parliament. Bossi himself polledersonal preference rotes, surpassing PSI Secretary Bet lino Craxl as Ihe most popular politician in the north. Orlando's Net managed to come from nowhere toercent of the national vote, emerging as Ibe lOtn-Iargesl parly. lis share of.the vote was just
slightly lower (ban mo of the governing coalition partners. In attracting voters from across tbe political and economic spectrum, the two men have been able to steal the mainstream parties' voters, especially small to medium-size entrepreneurs, blue-collarthe intelligentsia, and the middle class- Orlando proudly claims his movement is not beholden to any group or faction but is made up of citizens with high ethics wbo want to reform the system.
The electoral successes of The Net and the Lombard League have forced the established parties tothe political status quo and have created enough public outcry to force party bosses to grudgingly admit (he need for change. But we believe the public still does noi view Bossi and Orlando as serious politicians with long-term agendas. Moreover, their organizations lack parliamentary experience and,esult, have had virtually no say in the formationovernment]
Benefits of OppotMoa Status
Bossi and Orlando arc likclv to remain in opposition for ibe not few yuan and let the mainstream parties continue declining. As one politician has noted, i: is easier for them lo criticize from without rather than govern from within.
Bossi firmly believe* his pany will completelyIbe administrative election* in 1WS if ii coniin-ues in the opposition
(he League basess-than-stellar
is not seeking any ministries in the next government; rather, he wants lo stay out of the governmeni until it is rtfonncdJ-
Outlook
We expect Bossi and the Lombard League to remain on the scene for ihe foreseeable future, and we anticipate that Bossi's maverick image will continueork both for and against him. By continuing his negative campaign, Bossi will probably gather further public support for his cause. Nevertheless, bis fervent anticstablishment attitude will make it difficult for him to garner ihe necessary backing in Parliament from ihe rnainslream parlies to effect tbe dramatic changes he wants. To maintain momentum he mustiable program and redirect histo gel bis new, inexperienced legislators up to speed quickly.!-
In our view, Orlando's moderation and connections lo the DC will allow him to deal with Ihe major parlies in Parliament. Al the same time, his opposition status will continue to win support from bis constituents. His solid grounding in local politics will help ia his debut on the national scene. Nevertheless, wiih its weak parly structure and reliance on Orlando's personality, Tbe Net will be hard pressed to survive bt ibe south once Orlando leaves for Rome. Moreover, Orlando still faces an uphill battle In bis own backyard as the mainstream parties build their strength in the south. We believe there islight chance he could return lo tbe DC fold. (
in local govern men is. League delegates perform very well during free-for-all debates and general discussion, but they lose tbeir voices when concrete proposals are needed!
Moreover, Bossi refused to allow League members to govern in Brescia after ibe movement polled the most votes1 regional eleciioos.
In oar view, Orlando beltcvca he gains greater attention in oppcaiiiofl and fears his movement would be relegated lo the margins if it joiacd tbe governmentecent interview he declaredorce seeking reform should noi want to enter tbe government He believes his movemeni shouldits ability to "challenge, stimulate, and advancerlando bas also claimed thai The Nel
We believe Bossi's and Orlando's presence will enliven parliamentary proceedings because Ihe two men will refuse io allow business to go on as usual. Bossi claims his movemeni, by virtue of iis reformist nature and sizable public support, will decide the balance of power In Parliament. Although Bossi and Orlando will both be working against the status quo. their rwrspeciives on reform remain so divergent lhat they will probably work against each other once specific reform legislation is proposed, (Even if they were to work together, the size of (heir combined groups would not be enoughorm an alternative to a
The Men Behind the Scenes
etired political science professor al Milan'sUniversityecently elected senator, Gian-franco Miglio is the chief strategist for the Lombard League. He advocates nothing lessomplete rewriting af the Constitution, with emphasis on grtat-erhile we do not expect the mainstream parties io invite either movementoin tho government, we believe Boui and Orlando would be willing toepresentative in the cabineterious reformer be named prime minister]
Implications for tbe United States Bossi and Orlando have little experience in foreign affairs: both tend to focus primarily on domestic issues and shy away from discussing foreign policy. Nevertheless, both voted against Italian participation in the Persian Gulf war. Bossi told US officials he was pandering to leftists and pacifists and fell his negative vole would bolster his standing. His advisers (old
Bossi's voteistake and that they chalked it up to inexperience-Otlando was also courting lef/twing support but stressed that his vote was based on his deeply held religious beliefs. We believe Orlando was strongly influenced by his closest adviser. Father Bnirioa Jesuit priest. I
EnnioMentor- Confessor
A political scientist end sociologist. Father Ennlo Pintacuda serves Leoluca Orlando as both confessor and adviser and exerts great influence in his life.
Original document.
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