HEREWITH SUPPORT CABLE FOR EUROPEAN BRIEF OCPAS EUR 92-095 FOR 23 APRIL 1992

Created: 4/23/1992

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

AZAKHSTAN: EVOLVING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR POLICIES

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT KRAVCHUK HAS SAID UKRAINE, ANC RUSSIA, SOON SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO ELIMINATEWEAPONS, ACCORDING TO WESTERN PRESS REPORTS. HISTHAT MANY PROBLEMS RBMAIN IN REMOVING ANDWEAPONS, HOWEVER, AND THAT WESTERN HELP IS need8d. SUGGESTS THAT ONLY ABOUT ONE-FOURTH OF THE JOPULATIONTO HAVE ITS OWN NUCLEAR FORCB.

comment: kravchuk's announcement probably has intended to calm KItStern concerns that kiev kay renege on its nuclear-free commttmbnt, thereby threatening start ratipicati3n. both kazakhstan and ukraine recently have suggested that they would become nuclear -frbb states if the west provides security guarantees. both countries believe that their negotiating leverage--both with russia and the west--will decline sharply after nuclear weapons arb removed. nazarbayev whose position appears to have hardened in the past month--and kravchuk probably willard bargain with moscow UK the timetable for removing strategic wbapons; |

(both states will try to keep some weapons, at least until

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