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ITEM I. PERSPECTIVE--COCAINE TRENDS IN LATIN AMERICA
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE ERUPTION OF THE DRUC PROBLEM IN THE, ANTIDRUG PROGRAMS IN LATIN AMERICA HAY BE REACHING THE POINT OF CUTTING INTO THE FLOU OF COCAINE INTO THE UNITED STATES. THREE TRENDS ARE CONVERGING TO BRING THIS ABOUT: DECLINING COCA CULTIVATION, RISING COCAINE SEIZURES, AND INCREASING LAW ENFORCEMENT PRESSURES ON TRAFFICKING GROUPS. IF THESE GAINS ARE SUSTAINED INDESPITE SIGNIFICANT DIFFICULTIES, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THEY CANRINGS WILL FACE SLOWING DECLINING COCAINE SUPPLIES AND INCREASING TRAFFICKING RISKS.
WE ANTICIPATE THAT SHRINKING COCA CULTIVATION WILL REDUCE COCAINE AVAILABILITY THIS YEAR. THE AREA UNDER CULTIVATION IN PERU BOLIVIA, ANDSUPPLIERS TO THE WORLDFOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT YEARYERCENT. BUT THE LEAFTHE POTENTIAL COCAINEINCREASED AS COCA PLANTED TWO YEARS EARLIER CAME INTO PRODUCTION.BOW WAVE" EFFECT OF INCREASED PRODUCTION AS EARLIER PLANTINGS MATURE HAS, HOWEVER, REACHED ITS PEAK. THE PROPORTION OF MATURE CULTIVATION TO TOTAL CULTIVATION IS AT ITS95
RELATIVELY LITTLE COCA WILL MATURE THIS YEAR, SHARPLY LIMITING INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY. CONTINUED ERADICATION AND CONTROLS OVER NEW PLANTINGS AT CURRENT LEVELS WILL CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE POTENTIAL COCAINE PRODUCTION TO DECLINE. Wk
AT THE SAME TIME, COCAINE SEIZURES, WHICH REACHED RECORDYEAR, ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH. SEIZURES OF COCAINEBASE IN COLOMBIA EXCEEDEDETRIC TONSQN RECORD TOTALj
UP ALMOST ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE REGION.THESE INCREASES REFLECT. AT LEAST IN PART, MORE "
AMERICANS ARE MAKING SOME PROGRESS IN COUNTERING RISE IN TRAFFICKING. COLOMBIA HAS STEPPED UP ITS ATTACKS ON COCAINE LABS, AS ITS STRATEGY HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM TARGETING KINGPINS.
LAW ENFORCEMENT PRESSURE ON TRAFFICKERS AND THEIR ORGANIZATIONS ALSO SHARPENEDND WE EXPECT IT WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THEIR EFFICIENCY. BOLIVIAN TRAFFICKERS FACED UNPRECEDENTED DIFFICULTIES. THE ARREST OR SURRENDER OF MOST LEADING TRAFFICKERS. THE GOVERNMENT'S OCCUPATION OF SANTAA KEY TRAFFICKERTHE SEIZURE OF MORE THANRAFFICKER AIRCRAFT RESULTED IN SHORT-TERM DISRUPTIONS OF THE DRUG TRADE AND HELD OUT THE POSSIBILITYONG-TERM ATTRITION OF TRAFFICKERS' CAPABILITIES. IN COLOMBIA. THE SURRENDERS OF THE OCHOA BROTHERS AND PABLO ESCOBAR RAISED NEW UNCERTAINTIES FOR MEDELLIN DRUG RINGS, WHILE DRAMATIC OPERATIONS AGAINST CALI GROUPS DISRUPTED THEIR
NOFORN OCT ORCON
9 REACHINC HARVESTABLE AGEEAF PRODUCTION HILL FALL2 AS FEWER NEWLY MATURING FIELDS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR HARVEST BECAUSE OF THE DECLINES IN NEW CULTIVATION0 AND THE ABANDONMENT OR ERADICATION OF SOME ALREADY MATURE FIELDS. WE EXPECT THAT THE DROP IN PRODUCTION WILL BE EVEN GREATERT. GIVEN THE CONTINUcD DECLINE IN NEW CULT!M
NWARD TREND IN CULTIVATION
COCA
UT HAS DECLINED SINCE THEN BY MOREERCENT. ANNUAL DECREASES HAVE BEEN SEEN IN BOTH BOLIVIA AND COLOMBIA, WHILE THE TOTAL CULTIVATED AREA INWORLD'S LARGEST COCAHAS REMAINED STABLE. ONLY INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF COCA ARE GROWN OUTSIDE OF THESE THREE COUNTRIES. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION ELSEWHERE REMAINS.
ALTHOUGH TOTAL COCA CULTIVATION IN PERU HAS LEVELED OFFUDDEN JUMP8REAS OF CULTIVATION WITHIN THE COUNTRY HAVE BEEN SHIFTING. CULTIVATION IN PARTS OF THE LARGEST GROWINGUPPER HUALLACADECLINED IN THE LAST TWO YEARS, PROBABLY MOSTLY BECAUSE FARMERS HAY BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION TO ESCAPE BOTH GOVERNMENT AND INSURGENT PRESSURES. INAJOR SEEDBED ERADICATION PROGRAM UNDER WAY8 IN ONE AREA OF THE UPPER HUALLAGA VALLEY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE AVAILABILITY OF SEEDLINGS FOR NEW CULTIVATION THERE. DECREASES IN THE UPPER HUALLAGA, HOWEVER, WERE LARGELY OFFSET BY INCREASED CULTIVATION IN OTHER PARTS OF THE VALLEY, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ,
CULTIVATION IN BOLIVIA DECLINEDERCENT LAST YEAR AND ISERCENT SINCENOW EQUALS THE CULTIVATION LEVELHE GREATEST REDUCTIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE CHAPARE REGION, WHERE AN ERADICATION PROGRAM HAS SEEN IMPLEMENTED. ALTHOUGH FALLING SHORT OF THE GOVERNMENT'S GOALECTARES ERADICATED BY BOLIVIA LAST YEAR WERE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO OFFSET NEW CULTIVATION IN THE CHAPARE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE YEAR. FARMER PARTICIPATION IN BOLIVIA'S VOLUNTARY ERADICATIONREACHED RECORD LEVELS INBEEN MOTIVATED BY LOW LEAF PRICES THROUGH MOST0 AND FLUCTUATING PRICES THEREAFTER. THE YUNGAS COCA GROWINGEGAL GROWING AREA, ALSOEDUCTION IN TOTAL CULTIVATIONHE DECLINE IN THE YUNGAS MAY HAVE BEEN BECAUSEALL IN LEGITIMATE DEMAND FOR COCA. ALTERNATIVE CROP PROGRAMS. HOWEVER, ALSO MAY HAVE HAD AN IMPACT
PEVIOUSLY CONTAINING COCA ARE NOW PLANTED WITH PINEAPPLE.
NOFORN NOCONjMkfT%RCON
COCA CULTIVATION IN COLOMBIAERCENT LAST YEAR, CONTINUING THE DOWNTURN IN CULTIVATION THERE FIRST NOTEDIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IM CULTIVATION WERE EVIDENT IN THE LARGEST GROWINGGUAVIARE/VAUPESCULTIVATION DROPPED BY MORE THANERCENT'. MUCH OF THIS DECREASE WAS COUNTERBALANCEDPERCENT INCREASE IN CULTIVATION IN THE NEXT LARGEST GROWING AREA, THE CAQUETA/PUTUHAYO REGION. THE SHIFT IN GROWING AREAS MAY REFLECT FARMER DISSATISFACTION WITH THE LOW-YIELDING VARIETY OF COCA BEING GROWN IN THE GUAVIARE/VAUPES REGION AND THEIR CALCULATION THAT HIGHER YIELDS COULD BEVARIETIES OF COCA
A PEAK TEAR FOR COCA LEAF PRODUCTION
DESPITE THE DECLINE IN CULTIVATION, THE MATURATION OF THE CROP PLANTED9 CAUSED ANDEAN COCA LEAFTO PPODL'C'JG CCCAIME-TO INCREASE LAST YEAR. PERU'S COCA LEAF PRODUCTION INCREASEDERCENTND9 PERCENTOST OF TKE PRODUCTION INCREASE WAS IN THE UPPER HUALLACA VALLEY AREA WHERE COCA YIELDS PER HECTARE ARE HICHER THAN ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY. THE COCA LEAF CROWN IN AREAS MAY REFLECT FARMER DISSATISFACTION WITH THE LOW-YIELDING VARIETY Of COCA BEINC GROWN IN THE GUAVIARE/VAUPES REGION AND THEIR CALCULATION THAT HIGHER YIELDS COULD BEOR BETTER VARIETIES Cc COCA GROWN--ELSEWHERE.
A PEAK YEAR FOR COCA LEAF PRODUCTION
DESPITE THE DECLINE IN CULTIVATION, THE MATURATION OF THE CRCP PLANTED9 CAL'SEO ANDEAN CCCAC DUCTEY TO PRODUCING CCCAINE-TO INCREASE LAST YEAR. PERU'S COCA LEAF PRODUCTION INCREASEDERCENTND BYERCENTOST OF THE PRODUCTION INCREASE HAS IN THE UPPER HUALLACA VALLEY AREA, WHERE CCCA YIELDS PER HECTARE ARE HICHER THAN ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY. THE COCA LEAF GROWN IN PERU IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCETHE WORLDWIDE SUPPLY OF COCAINE Ha.
PRODUCTION OF COCA LEAF IN BOLIVIA WAS ONLY SLIGHTLYABOUT0 AND PROBABLY WAS SUFFICIENT TOONS OF COCAINE Ha. BOLIVIA WOULD HAVEUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN COCA LEAF PRODUCTION WERE IT NOT FOR THE ERADICATION OF
NOFORN NOCQNTOprCT EMlff
ectares of mature cultivation in the chapare between0 andkH
in COLOMBIA, coca leaf production declinedercent if all coca grown in COLOMBIA is the low-yielding lowland variety, aboutons of cocaine could be processed from indigenous leaf production.
outlook
a further decline in coca cultivation next year would depend on bolivia meeting its eradication goals and on many colombian farmers continuing to turn away from coca cultivation. sustained go vermont pressure on the drug trade that resulted in lower market prices for coca could also result in significantly reduced cultivation. coca leaf production will decline23 as fewer fields will be available for harvest due to the falloff in cultivationut any significant increase in cultivation this
hcrj portend
a reovjund in andean region production
itemndean core countries: sustaining pressure on traffickers
last year, cocaine traffickers in COLOMBIA, peru, and bolivia came under the strongest pressure yet from government interdiction and law enforcement efforts. in COLOMBIA, president gaviria's emphasiseformed judicial system and continued attacks against processing facilities seized the initiative against medellin and cali traffickers. an increasingly effective interdiction program in bolivia, in conjunctionlea-bargain program to induce the surrender of drug ringleaders, resulted in major disruptions of trafficking. the antidrug effort inby severe economic problems and the host serious insurgency in theonly marginal progress, but president fujimori proved more inclined than his predecessor to cooperate with the [tnited : mj|
nonetheless, narcotics production and transshipment levels remain high. trafficker efforts to adaptore hostile environment will challenge all the andean governments to sustain pressure and convict top kingpins. while likely to further imppov cooperation with us counternarcotics efforts, all threeill probably remain sensitive to public opposition to certain elements of us pclicy. AS
COLOMBIA
the colombian government's antidrug prograh made great stridesriven by domestic priorities to curtail drug-related violence, president caviriatrategy using plea bargaining
unonternarc0tic5 operations to pressure the cocaine trade and persuade top traffickers to surrender. the success of this approach was reflected bt the surrender of the host notorious hedellin kingpins, unprecedented operations targeting cali croups,ecord amount of cocaine seized in attacks against laboratories and transshipments sites. bogota's next step is to use new legal mechanisms and intensified police and military operations to press the leading drug rings,facing some disruption--remain intact and able to continue major cocaine shipments.
while eliminating the extradition of citizens, colombia's new constitution supports the gaviria administration's strategy by usheringeformed legal system that the government hopes will be more effective against the drug trade. most of the newly approved measures stem from presidential decrees issued to ihprove the government's ability to investigate, prosecute, and convict drug criminals. although it may take years to fully implement the new prosecutorial system and other sweepingumber of reforms are already proving effective.or example, that the public ordercornerstone of the new system intended to deal with narcotics and other serioushad an unusually high conviction rate. kWl
complementing the government's attempt to rebuildeapon against the traffickersoncerted effortlaw enforcement pressures on traffickingby security forces last year hampered the refiningoperations of leading trafficking groups.forces carried out intensified operationsairstrips and laboratoriesseized more thanons op cocainebase, surpassing the previous year's record total oftons. operations targeting medellin facilitiesto their reported loss of some cocaine markets in '
BROTHERS HAS
BOLSTERED PUBLIC CC^IDENCE iJ iiSS-S^ !ffiDELLIS GR0UPSBROTHERS
AND HAVE HEMAINEO^S^
NOFORN NOCQ^fcT ORCON
Page
POLICE RAIDS OH SEVERAL FINANCIAL AND MANAGEMENT CENTERS OF LEADING CALI NETWORKS LATE IN THE YEAR UNDERSCORED THE GOVERNMENT'S INTENT TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON THE CALI KINGPINS, WHO ARE FACING THEIR FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE. THESE OPERATIONS, WHICH COINCIDED WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT EFFORTS IN THE UNITED STATES, REPORTEDLY CAUSED SEVERE FINANCIAL PROBLEMS FOR THE TRAFFICKERS ANDPEND OPERATIONS.
ALTHOUGH GAVIRIA PROBABLY IS CONCERNEDOTENTIAL RESURGENCE CF TRAFFICKER VIOLENCE, WE BELIEVE HE INTENDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDED ENFORCEMENT OPERATIONS AGAINST THE CALI ORGANIZATIONS, HOPING TO FORCE THE CALI KINGPINS TO TURN THEMSELVES IN. GAVIRIA ALSO APPEARS TO BE FIRMLY COMMITTED TO PRESSING THE CASES AGAINST ESCOBAR AND THE OCHOAS, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE CREDIBILITY AND IMPACT OF BOGOTA'S PROGRAM WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE PROSECUTIONS EFFORTS TO PROSECUTE ESCOBAR AND THE OCHCAS ARE PROCEEDING SLOWLY HOWEVER, AS THE KINGPINS' LAWYERS TRY TO MANIPULATEROVISIONS AND COLOMBIAN OFFICIALS FACE DIFFICULTIES IN COLLECTING EVIDENCE THAT WOULD LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SENTENCES. TRAFFICKERS ARE ALSO POISED TO INTIMIDATE OR BRIBE JUDGES INVOLVED IN THEIR PROSECUTION.
'kin(
NETWORKS TO FORCE THE THEY COULD BEGIN TO TAX
WE JUDGE THE TAL AND COCAINE :ZURES, MUCH AS THEY HAVE IN THE PAST, BUT THE EXTENT OF THEIR RESERVE CAPACITY REMAINS UNKNOWN. MOREOVER, SUSTAINED GOVERNMENT PRESSURE AGAINST THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF CALI GROUPS, IN CONCERT WITH INTENSIFIED INTERDICTION EFFORTS, COULD SAP THE EFFICIENCY OF THE DRUG RTHGS AND IMPEDE THEIR ABILITY TO REFINE AND TRANSPORT COCA 1NE. LaWfl
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BURCEONING HEROIN 3USINESS
A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION DURINC THE PAST YEAR AND INCREASED COLOMBIAN DRUG TRAFFICKER INTEREST IN THE INTERNATIONAL HEROIN MARKET WILL INCREASE BOGOTA'S COUNTERNARCOTICS CONCERNS IN THE UPCOMING YEAR. ALTHOUGH PRODUCTION IS STILL SMALL BY GLOBAL MARKET STANDARDS, AT THE CURRENT RATE OF EXPANSION OPIUM CULTIVATION IN COLOMBIA COULD EXCEED THE TOTALBY THE ENDCATTERED CULTIVATION HAS BEEN NOTED
153
ll^NTflACT
NOFORN^oJSnTRACT ORCON
FOR MOREECADE.
_ _THE MAJOR CARTELS PLAN TO
EXPAND HEROIN PRODUCTION IF THE US MARKET INCREASES.
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PERU
PERU'S COCAINE INDUSTRY CONTINUED TO PROSPERLTHOUGH THE FUJIMORI GOVERNMENT TOOK SOME POSITIVE STEPS TO COUNTER THE TRADE. THE DRUG TRADE REMAINED FOCUSED ON COCA CULTIVATION AND RUDIMENTARY PROCESSING FOR REFINING LABORATORIES IN COLOMBIA. BUT SOME PERUVIAN TRAFFICKERS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND DIVERSIFY THEIR PROCESSING AND TRANSSHIPPING OPERATIONS. ALTHOUGH PRESIDENT FUJIHORI HAS GIVEN PRIORITY TO ADDRESSING SEVERE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AND COMBATING THE INSURGENCIES OVER ANTIDRUG ENDEAVORS, JOINT DRUG ENFORCEMENT ADMINISTRATIONERUVIAN POLICEEW NAVY COUNTERCRUC OPERATIONS, AND AIR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN MULTILATERAL AIR INTERDICTION OPERATIONS DISRUPTED SOME TRAFFICKER ACTIVITIES.
BE WILLING TO MOVE FORWARD IN SOME AREAS TO ACCOMMODATE US DEMANDS FOR TOUGHER ENFORCEMENT. M'
GOVERNMENT ENFORCEMENT EFFORTS AND PRESSURE FROM INSURGENT GROUPS IS THE HUALLACA VALLEY CAUSED COCA FARMERS AND TRAFFICKERS TO
NOFORN NOCON^fCT ORCON
Original document.
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