SPECIAL ANALYSIS

Created: 2/11/1992

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CIS.'

Aoily.1.

Netfabon Compcta for lafiiMnot la Mniln Soil**

Tkt artakap of ikt USSK kas Intensified competition amongrits for Infimtne* wit* Ikt Ctmrnoawtaltk's Mmtllm nam. Tnrkty mad Iran man madt tht most progress, bat otktn an abo mtemmtag Inrolnd Tkt leaden of Ctmtral Asia an wary of expanding ilea ta Tea mm hai rmxtrgmlu that Iram'i Imurtrt mat tHmtmUud actiom my otktr saitvrj. TU risk Is thai, as cxmdttiaau im tht MmsUmmdigemtms fn nmUmtn tmlistrm ta Iran and othtr radical regimes foe tnpporu

Iran, Turkey, China, India, Saudi Arabia, aad Pikiiua have citabiiihed or announced plana to establish diplomatic relation* with all the Muslim Commonwealth itaies China, Pakistan. Turkey, and Iran now have agreements to expand cultural and economic tics, transportation and communications links, and joint ventures with CIS Muslim sutes. Official contacts are being supplemented by unofficial contacts of clergymen, intellectuals, and political activists.

Whj tW Competition

The collapse of the USSR haaower vacuum on iu southern periphery that many of iu neighbors are now trying to fill.ourting Commonwealth Muslims to bring the region into the Iranian fold snd to prevent countries it tecs aaTurkey, Saudi Arabia, and thegaining influence on its northern border. Tehran is concentrating oo building lUte-to-sute political and economic ties. Western diplomats report Iranian leaders worry that uuubtlity in Central Asia could spread and that this has caused Tehran to play down iu support forchange there.

Turkey is courting Commonwealth Muslims primarily to win friends and counteract Iranian influence, undercut Pan-Turkic nationaliiu tt home, foster lUbility along iu borders, and preempt perceived West European economic inroads. Ankara sees itselfridge between East and West and hopes to build on similarities in cultural, linguinic, and religious beliefi to develop ties to tbe five Turkic republics of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzsttn. Turkmenistan, and Uibekman

now to bourse the2 billion it pledged to thebut It want* to avoid further commitments because of budgetsays Saudi Arab* want* to promote economic development and religious activitiesMuslim republics through private Saudi businessmen and religiousconcern about Iran's influence there, however, may eventually prompt Riyadhadditional officialv

Part of the Egyptian-Saudi Arabian collaboration is being fueled by mutual concernu actively exporting its brand of fundamentalism in the Commonwealth

,yefforts by Egyptian Islamic scholars to gain influence amonahe CIS. Saud. official, probably believe such moderate scholars will be more

repomunte

dignitaries from the CIS Muslim sutes this month and plans to esublish Islamic information

centers in toe region.

Others ire also becoming active. Saudi Arabia ii motivated by inn-Iranian sentiment boi has funnelcd iis limited aid to the SSSHrSShfera/chy io Tashkent, whose authority iso strengthen in siiiegic: posmon viw-vn India. The breakup of ihe USSR has badly damaged India's once superior posiiion, but New Delhi is not surrendenn, the field to Pakistan. Wilh an eye to preventing Mamie unrestu western regions. China was quick lo establish diplomatic reuiions and to expand economic relations with CIS Muslims

Common-faith Attitude-

J'h-facing

mynad economic and social problems and the end of aid from Russia, welcome the competition in the Islamic world and hoc* too get aid fromic and WesternAmong^r

Turkeyuch more desirable partner lhan theocratic Iran. Russia, as well, prefers Turkiih However. Muslim leader, will welcome whatever

SC. llTiiM ,nd " "an"in,ere"

Pros peels

h*ussian-trained leaden remain in control, ihe region will oh toward Turkey,s unclear bow long this will continue in the current fluid situation. Tehraneographic

Tali'SnDnd lin*ui,lic "dvantage in ite^njgjk' flhnitaJI> Per,ianlhe most volatile .tale in

*retawing rolek,,UBesser extent in

ll"'nd Kyrgyztun. wherere using Islam a, part

Popular support. While these movements owe nothing to ran, Uzbek and Tajik Muslims share Iran's interest

comrol on Islam moreover. will make it difficult even for the current .uthonurun regime, to checknfluence completely. Overu,,cdintoS ^Utm ^if relations wilh Ruuia, other CIS states, and the West fail lo show results.

Special Analysis

Pressure on

reoccupation niik compiling for in/lutact In iht CIS hot reduced ikt priority lights t0 toppling Irutl Prttldtnt Saddam Hasty* Tekram It continuing lom-Uftl support farhia and Kurdish

V4W

'

k issidents report ihatas Tehran has turned more attention to

L^KHggJS -nd the Caucasus. The gg^J^ revolts last year, the reduced military threat mmZlpower are additional reasons forhiftore pattern strategy.

Tehran is now concentrating on keeping Iran isolated while it Ma* a*

'0,dUSthai Tehran is

PPWiUon groups to unite and iscoordinate its supoon with that of Syria and Saudi Arabia

Si! pIli^^JSH! MKS!I Shia insurgents.

SneflM.nginsou.hwc,cm

alti suffering heavy losses last year. MMMgaJM

Tehran may be considering whether to mnlorce ihe grSS

Tehran is nevertheless ready to increase military aid to theand to have Revolut.on.ryf frAfr- uiar forces

lan failed last year. -

Original document.

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