Intelligence Memorandum
Office of Resources. Trade, and Technology
92
Directorate of Intelligence
Yugoslavia: Update on Trends in Population Displacements and Relief
Summary
The displacement ofillion Yugoslavs by civil war has galvanized international attention and relief efforts. Many countries have accepted thousands of refugees fleeing the violence, and8 million inincluding donations from the Unitedbeen pledged or distributed for the displaced within Yugoslavia. Nonetheless, the recent flow of refugees from Bosnia-Hercegovina has exacerbated the situation.
an
by
Current Overview
We can account forillion Yugoslavs displaced by civil war. On the basis of recent refugee movements, along with regional totals that the United Nations High Commisioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and tbe Yugoslav Red Cross have released previously, we believeillion displaced persons currently arc within the bounds of former Yugoslavia. In addition,ugoslavs have officially registered as refugees in other European countries. Not included in the overall total are atisplaced Yugoslavs residingumber ofAustria, Germany, Hungary, Italy, and Switzerland-as tourists or visitors who have neither requested official government protection nor registered with host governments. Turkey also hosts some Yugoslav "visitors*-mostly Bosnianaid workers in Istanbul estimate they currently number fewer0 and onlyave applied for government assistance.
Tablestimated Displacedy Host Country or Republic as2
Country/Republic
of Displaced/Refugees^
ia-Hercegovina
For whom we can account
Figures are current estimates, except for Belgium, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Swiuerland which1 data.
To dale, most displaced persons both within and outside of the former Yugoslavia have found refuge with friends or relatives or have used private resources to finance their stay away from home. The number of displaced, however, has now expanded beyond most local absorption capabilities--particularly in Hungary and the formerhost government and international resources are increasingly in demand. j
Currently, UNHCR and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) are the principal coordinators of relief efforts in the former Yugoslavia. Local Red Cross offices assist these organizations, although ethnic tensions within the local units-particulariy in Bosnia-Hercegovina-limit (heir effectiveness. In addition, some nongovernment organizations and private volunteer organizations also provide aid, most notably Germany's CARITAS and France's Medicins Sans Frontiers (Doctors Without Borders).
Aid Distribution and Pledges
esult of the escalating conflict in Bosnia-Hercegovina and the continuing problem of earlier population displacements in Croatia, the UN and ICRC have requested more financial assistance from the world community. The UNevised appeal in Mayotal5 million in aid, an increase8 million over its April appeal. Of5 million:
o UNHCR and the World Health Organization, planning expenses through3 and assuming thatefugees will require accommodations in camps for four months,8 million.
o UNICEF added an appealillion lo cover expenses through
As ofay, UNHCR and UNICEF hadotalillion in cash donations. ICRC onpril issued its own revised appealillion to finance operations throughs of that date, ICRC had received cash contributions ofillion. Several contributions of goods and services are not included in these cash totals. |
We estimate thai contributions and pledges to the UN, ICRC, and the governments of Yugoslavia and its former republics total at8 million in cash and in goods and services, not including donations from the United Slates. This estimate may be low, however, since it does not include private
and unannounced bilateralur estimate also docs not include expenses incurred by governments hosting displaced Yugoslavs, although Italy has indicated that some of its pledge may be used within Italy if the refugee population there grows. Several host oountries-particularly Austria and Germany--complain they have spent millions of dollars on Yugoslav refugees in their countries. Hungary, for example, has spent orillion of its own funds for refugees--primarilyHungary and has7 million from0 from Switzerland,rom Austria.
Tablestimated International Contributions and
Pledges4 asuneCountry CashDonations
(In Thousands)
European Community
Germany
Sweden
Austria
Saudi Arabia
Netherlands
Belgium
Canada
Finland
Denmark
Japan
United Kingdom
Turkey
France
Czechoslovakia Australia Switzerland Total
2S
0
Tents0
ons of food/medicineons of food/medicine
<-flyrmFNTI4T
NOFORN
Status of Displaced Persons in Former Yugoslav Republics
In addition to sparking an international effort to provide assistance and, in some cases, refuge for the displaced, the massive flow of displaced persons has created numerous problems in the former republics. These problems vary considerably by region, however.
Escalation of the conflict in Bosnia-Hercegovina forced bothICRC to withdraw-at least temporarily-in May and to discontinuetransport supplies or provide services within Bosnia-Hercegovina fromCroatia and Serbia. Increasingly, refugees are fleeingof fear of hunger rather than fear of conflict, according toEnvoy Mendiluce said in late Mayillion people in thevillages of Bosnia-Hercegovina are cut off from aid and may be closeUNHCRmid-May that they expect several
thousand people currentl^rappedD^hghting throughout Bosnia-Hercegovina to flee once local violence subsides. In addition, the Serb policy of "cleansing" or forcibly relocating Muslims and Croats probably will continue to produce refugees from mixed population areas.
Croatia has borne the brunt of recent refugee movements from Bosnia-Hercegovina and has issued urgent pleas for internationaleeting in Vienna onay-attended by representatives of Austria, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Switzerland, the EC, ICRC, and the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe-produced an agreement in principle to allocate sufficient funds and supplies to support anisplaced persons in Croatia. This will probablylan that the Croatian Government recommended in early May to establish several refugee camps for the additional influx in eastern Slavonia and near Zagreb where many refugees reside. To date, most refugees have been housed with the local population or in public buildings and resort centers, but overtaxed local resources are no longer adequate. Although UNHCR and UNICEF have overcome their initial opposition to establishing refugee camps and now agree that camps may be the only solution, these organizations are likely to discourage camp establishment for as long as possible because of associated costs and health risks.
his excludesillion counted as pan of the EChere are also thousands of refugees along the Dalmatian CoaJr^niculatly in Dubrovnilc, Rijcka, and Split.H
Macedonia hosts relatively few people displaced by fighting in Yugoslavia, although recent reports indicate that ethnic Albanians in Kosovo-fearing that violence will soon erupt there-are beginning to arrive in Macedonia, whichubstantial Albanian population. Most are reportedly
slaying wiih friends and family and have not requested government assistance. Neither UNHCR or ICRC has established regular operations in the region, relying on the local Red Cross to handle current refugee needs. If the situation in Kosovo deteriorates into violence, however, we expect much larger refugee flows into Macedoniaeed for increased assistance. I
Relatively few refugees are in Montenegro, although more than half of the current total recently arrived from Bosnia-Hercegovina. The republic has not reported any serious problems, probably because most of ihe displaced depend on friends or relatives for assistance and consequently have not strained government resources. J
Nearly half of the refugees currently in Serbia arc recent arrivals from Bosnia-Hercegovina, and at least some of these are Muslims forced from their homes near the Serbian border. Over one-third of the refugees are living in Belgrade and most others have been dispersed to cities and towns throughout Serbia, although many recent arrivals are probably still residing near Serbia's border with Bosnia-Hercegovina. UNHCR and ICRC are operating relief efforts out of Belgrade, and the Serbian Red Cross claims itons of food and supplies daily to refugees in Serbia and Serb-controlled areas of Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina. probably funded by international aid contributed directly to the Yugoslav Government. Nonetheless, Belgrade media report that funds for supporting refugees are nearly exhausted and that outlying areas are now relying primarily on limited regional agricultural production
Despite several announcements that refugees will no longer be accepted. Slovenia has made only isolated attempts to halt the flow and refugee reception centers remain active. We believe Ljubljana will continue to accept refugees as long as international attention remains focused on the problem and aid continues to arrive. Nearly two-thirds of the refugees are recent arrivals from Bosnia-Hercegovina and are housed in military barracks, schools, and Boy Scout camps.
Original document.
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