SALVADORAN PEACE MONITOR

Created: 2/19/1992

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Peace Monitor

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Cewe-fire viotadons: Most ONUSAL observers are in place, and no violations have been reported since the formal cease-fire beganebruary.

lhatf ONUSAL'silitary

arrived asebruary.

6 February, guerrillas in Cuscatlan Department were providing locations of minefields to unidentified officials, probably from ONUSAL. |

Tensions and distrust persist, however, and the risk of random clashes will be high until the separation of forces is completed.

timely arrival of ONUSAL observers narrowlylash near the Cerron Grande Dam in Chalatenango Department in early February. Guerrillas threatened to fire on an Army patrol that they claimed had entered their zone.

several incidents in which guerrillas taunted membersemonstration outside the 5th Brigade

The government and tbe FMLN have accused each other of providing ONUSAL with inaccurate information,ARENA leader Armando Calderon Sol accused the FMLN of turning in incomplete weaponshile guerrilla ccanraander Joaquin Villalobos accused the government of inflating military nianpower figures.

See Speclil Aculytb lection for further ckiiils.

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illegal land seizures by pro-FMLN peasants have become ato the peace process. The government argues that the seizures violate the peace1 agreement with peasant groups. The FMLN, meanwhile, maintainsight to unoccupied land in its strongholds,

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Political and Military Reform Issues

Status of refontis: COPAZ. charged with harnmering out details and resolving disputes related to the accord, acquired legal statusebruary.

- The opening ceremony dreweople, and most speakers-including FMLN Commander Joaquinmphasized ihe need for national reconciliation.

activities: San Salvador has been active on several fronts to demonstrate its commitment to peace.

;sident Cristiani kicked off the National Reconstruction las Department, distributing nearly S2 million to local mayors for rebuilding projects.

- The legislatureebruary issued'clanficabon' closing loopholes in thelaw.legal experts had argued that,

under the law, judges could have granted arwieuy to the perpetrators in some notorious human rights abuses before the Truth Cbmrrasoon had an crppcrrturuty to review the cases.

Onebruary, the legislature selected the five-man Supreme Electoral Tribunal, which will oversee4 demon* fJBJBJBJBJ

olitical transfGeination: The FMLN has wasted hole time increasing its political profile, although it has not finalized plans toarty.

- The insurgents have staged several well-attended rallies, formed political comminecs, and announced they willolitical congress in the near future.

They also have increased funding for their frontare soliciting financial aid from friendly

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Instances of Political Violence

No confurned cases of political violence have been reported since the fire bombing of vehicles belonging to foreign journalists on New Year's Eve.

that the ultra-right Salvadoran Anti-Communist

mint U'Aij recently renewed its death threats against the leaderrominent leftist group that lobbies for displaced persous.H

Other Developments

alvadorans across the political spectrum are struck by the unusually sphere and the small, but tangible, signs that the war is over.

he presence of armed troops in the capital is less pervasive.

speed bumps, and guard posts have been removed from most city streets.

director of the Catholic Church's human rightsfrequent, often shrill, critic of the military and goverrunent-acknowledges that fewer abuses are occurring.

Foreign

he FMLN announcedebruary that the Norwegian government had pledged S2 million to the national reconstruction effort.

Press reports indicate the German gcrvemmeni announced it will resume its economic assistance program to El Salvador. German aid was suspended two years ago in the wake of the murder by government troops of six Jesuit priests, their cook, and her daughter.

The French have agreed to0 worth of food to the government, according to press reports.

raising San Salvador's responsible fiscal, rrKxietary, and trade policies, the IMF recently announced plans toillion standby agreement that will boost President Cristiani's macroceonomic reform program. EBpjEIH

According to press re pons, FMLN leader Shafik Elandal traveled to Cubaebruary, apparently to discuss recent developments in El Salvador with Cuban officials.

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Upcoming Issues

The peace accord calls for the disbanding of ihe Treasury Police and ihe National Guardarch. Personnel from these forces will be transferred to the AnryB

The government announced it will releaseolitical prisonersarch I

Ernesto Arbizu, the National Civilian Police Coordinator, recently announced that in mid-March he willstudents for the new police academy, which is due tob|

Special Analysis: The FMLN On Guard

Given the FMLNs long experience in logistics, we believe the guerrillas will be able to maintain arms caches despite the presence of UN observers. Moreover, the UN does not appear to be prepared aggressively to follow up charges that arms have been hidden. While these effects will buoy the FMLN's confidence, they also will feed the government's mistrust and increase the potential for cease-fire violations and banditry.

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