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FOR it FEBRUARY?;^
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ASSUMINGYEAR RESI DENT.^SERRSTRONG ECONOMIC RECOVERY, HADE PROGRESS IH' IHPROVING; RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, WORKED TO MAKE THE MILITARY MORE RESPONSIVE TO CIVILI AN/AUTHORITY. AND DEMONSTRATED-HIS COMMITMEN' ATTACKING NARCOTICS IS COHBATIVE PERSONALITY.NABILITY JO BUILD CONSENSUS, COULDDVANCES.
TO
HIEF ACCOMPLISHMENTS HAS BEEN, THE UCCESS OF HIS ECONOMIC POLICIES. HIS REFORM PROGRAM HAS RESULTED IN REAL GNP CONTINUING TOSROH AT ABOUTERCENT, INFLATION FALLING FROM 60 TO 10 PERCENT, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES INCREASING FROM MILL ION TOILLION. OLL CONDUCTED THIS MONTH.'HOWEVER, SHOWS SERRANO'S POPULAR APPROVAL RATING:HAS.SLIPPED FROM ^2 ERCENT SINCE JULY, IN PART BECAUSE.OF HIS BELT-TIGHTENING POLICIES.
HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD IMPROVING
NO
SERRANO HAS SOUGHT TO IMPROVE
GUATEMALA'S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD. IN AUGUST. FOR EXAMPLE, HEABINET-LEVEL COMMISSION TO PROBE HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS. IN ADDITION, AN ARMY OFFICER AND AN ENLISTED HAN HAVE BEEN CONVICTED ANO IMPRISONED FOR THE HASSACRE OF 14 INDIANS IN DECEMBERNPRECEDENTED PUNISHMENT FOR MILITARY PERSONNEL. THE EMBASSY ALSO REPORTS THAT POLITICALLY MOTIVATED MURDERS ARE BECOMING LESS FREQUENT, LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE PRESIDENT'S IHITIATIVES. THE MURDER OF US CITIZEN MICHAEL DEVINE IN 0 BY ARMY TROOPS IS STILL UNSOLVED ANO REMAINS THE KEY STUMBL INGBl OC I! TO A RESUMPTION OF US HILITARY AID.
THE FIGHT AGAINST NARCOTICS
SERRANO HAS HADE STRIDES IN COUNTERING THE TRANSSHIPMEHT OF COCAINE THROUGH GUATEMALA TO THE US. BUT HE HAS ACHIEVED LITTLE IN OTHER COUNTERNARCOTICS AREAS. AN EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN HHO VIEWS DRUG TRAFFICKING AS 1HHORAL AND HREAT TO SOCIETY, HE IS STRONGLY COHMITTEO TO UPGRADING GUATEMALA'S ANTIDRUG CAPABILITIES. SERRANO HAS ACCEPTED OIRECT US ASSDESPITE HIS GENERAL WARINESS OF INVOLVING WASHIHGTOH IH GUATEKALAN CLUOING SUPPORT FOR OPERATIONI LATERAL QUICK-REACTION FORCE. ECORD 5 METRIC TOHS OF COCAINE WERE SEIZED LAST YEAR. |
NEVERTHELESS US-BACKED ANTIDRUG LEGISLATION HAS LANGUISHED IN CONGRESS FOR A YEAR, AND THE EXTRADITION OF TRAFFICKERS TO THE USLOW AND UNCERTAIN PROCESS. GUATEMALA ALSO CONTINUES TOIGNIFICANT REGIONAL PRODUCER OF RAW OPIUH GUM, EVENILATERAL OPIUM POPPY ERADICATION PRQGRAH HAS HELPED PREVENT AN INCREASE IN TOTAL CULTIVATION.
OUTLOOK
SERRANO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE PEACE PROCESS AND ON NORHALIZING RELATIONS WITH BELIZEISSUES IN WHICH HE HAS BCFM PERSONALLY INVOLVED. PROSPECTS ARE GOOD FOR RESOLVING BOTH OF THESE LONGSTANDING PROBLEMS THIS YEAR, WHICH MOULD BOOST GUATEMALA'S INTERNATIONAL IMAGE BUT PROBABLY WOULD DO LITTLE TO EXPAND THE PRESIDENT'S POWER BASE AT HOME. HIS FIRH OPPOSITION TO DRUG TRAFFICKING AND HIS DESIRE TO BE SEENEGIONAL LEADER HAY PROMPT HIM INCREASED MULTILATERAL COUHTERHARCOTICS INITIATIVES.
BEGINNING OF SECTION
POLITICAL MISCALCULATIONS COULD COMPLICATE SERRAHO'S PROGRESS ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT. HIS RECENT FAILURE TO MARSHAL SUPPORT BEFORE MAKING A BID TO GAIN CONTROL OF THE LEGISLATURE AND THE SUPREME COURT HAS H IN A WEAK POSITION TO PUSH CRITICAL AS A FISCAL REFORH THE CONGRESS. SIMILAR MISSTEPS
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COULD JEOPARDIZE THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY, JUDICIAL REFORM, AND OTHER PRESSING ISSUES.
BOX
PRESSING THE GUATEMALAN MILITARY ON HUMAN RIGHTS
PRESIDENT SERRANO HAS PUT CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE ON THE ARMED FORCES TO HALT HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES AND HAS DEMANDED THAT HEN INVOLVED IN TWO HIGH-PROFILE CASES BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE:
NOVEMBER. SERRANO VOLUNTEERED TO TESTIFYAVY CAPTAIN AND SIX ENLISTED HEN CHARGED WITH THE MURDERS OF II CIVILIANS LAST
PRESIDENT CLAIMS THE CAPTAIN CONFESSED TO HIH .
W, THE CAPTAIN RECENTLYTE^rTED AS A CIVILIAN WITH NO MILITARY IMMUNITY OR PROTECTION.
SERRANO IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNED
WITH RESOLVING THE MURDER OF MICHAEL DEVINE. IN JANUARY, OURT DECLARED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO REARREST AN ARMY CAPTAIN IN CONNECTION WITH THE KILLING. DEFENSE HINISTER GARCIA AND THE HIGH COMMAND HAVE ASSURED US OFFICIALS THEY INTEND TO HAVE THE CASE SOLVED EXPEDITIOUSLY.
DRVU 14 FEBRUARYDMIN BT
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