-iJJOKJU 92
CIA HISTGWPROGRAM RELEASE IH8
Economic Intelligence Report
CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
KIH'
Economic Intelligence Memorandum
CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE
CIA/RR
WARNING
tulhomwl perior. Is prohibit
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
FOREWORD
This report Bummarizee the reoulto of detailed reooarch in depth on consuaption of electric power in the USSR'^5- Consumption is estimated by economic sector and by area for the USSR and by branch for Soviet induatry. The report also includes estimates of electric power consumed by the Soviet nuclear materials Industry that nave not heretofore been published by this Office.
Consumption of electric power by the various sectors of the economy is reported annually by the USSR, and consumption by the various branches of industry was reported in detail Consumption by the nuclear materials branch of Industry was not specifically mentioned butwas included in the category "others the share of this category had tripled sincea. Some of the data for thebranches of industry for years other5 have been reported, others have been derived from reported Indexes, and still others have been derived from reported or estimated production multiplied byactual or normative unit consumption of electric power. The estimates for consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials branch of induatry have been derived in all cosesesidual. The margin of error attached to such residuals may bc substantially greater than the margins of error attached to the other estimates of To reduce this margin of orror, the reelduale were checked against estimates of consumption of electric power based on the study ofnuclear materials enterprises. In those cases (as for gaseousplants) In which the magnitudes were sufficiently large toa significant part of production of electric power by the oblast, the residual and plant methods of estimation agree withinver the historical period. Por smaller Installations the two methods of estimation oftenarger degree of divergence. In spite of the llmltotiona of the available data, the eetimateo presented are believed to be of the correct order of magnitude for the historical period. The estimateaaed as It Is on an interpretation of Soviet plana ond projections of poat trends, can make no ollowance for Soviet decisions concerning the priority to be ascribed to fulfillment of these plans and ia subject to margins of error considerably larger than those attached to data for the historical period.
Because this reportummary of research in depth and is basedery large number of sources, it is not feasible to document each figure; however, supporting data, methodology, and sources of thisare available in the files of this Office. The report ha3 been coordinated with the Office of Scientific Intelligence.
CONTEHTS
Page
Summary and Conclusions
I. Allocation of the Total Pinal Consumption by Economic
i. ..
Industry
Other Sectors %.
C Distribution by
II. Branch Allocation of JConsumption by Industry * 17
Nonnuclear Branches of Industry
.
III. Consumption by the Nuclear Materials Industry
by
Tables
1. Estimated Allocation of the Total Final Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Economic Sector,
Selected,5
?. Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electricthe USSR, by Branch oflan
stimated Average Annual Increases in ConsumptionPower in tbe USSR, by Economic
Page
HteB Estimated CoOBumption of Electric Power In tbe by Economic Sector, Selected Years,nd
I965
Distribution of tne Total Pinal Consumption
of Electric Power in the USSR, by Area,5
Structure of Allocation of the Final Consump-
tion of Electric Power in the USSR, by Area and by
Economic Sector,
7- Estimated Distribution of Consumption or ElectricIndustry ln the USSR, by Area,5
fl. Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electricthe USSR, by Branch of Industry,5
9. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR and
the US, by Branch of Industry,
10. Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electricthe Fuel Induatry in the USSR,5 Plan
Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power
by the Nonferrous Metallurgical Industry ln the USSR,
Selected,5
Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power
by the Chemical Industry in the USSR, Selected Years
5
13- Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by
Branch of Induatry and by Area,
1*. Estimated Consuaption of Electric Power In the USSR, by
Branch of Industry and by5
15. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power by theInduatry in the USSR and the25
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16. Estimated Distribution of Consumption ofPower by the Nuclear Materialsthe USSB, by Area, Selected
Page
Figure 1. Estimated Distribution of ConsumptionPower in the USSR,5 Plan (Map)
Figure 2. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Economic Sector,
Figure 3. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the US and the USSR, Selected
Chart)
Figure 4. Estimated Indexes of Growth ofof Electric Power and of Output in the USSR, by Economic Sector,
Figure 5- Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Branch of Industry,
Chart)
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OF ELECTRIC POWER
Summary and Conclusions
The total finalf electric power ln the USSR grew steadily0 billion kilowatt-hours (kwh)5kwh0illion kwh1 and is expected to reach approximately the planned levelsillion kwh2illion kwh5 (eee. Soviet final consumption of electric power increased2 percent of the comparable53 percent0 and, during the same time period, grew at an average annual rate ofercent comparedercent in the US. It is estimated that SovieVconsumption ofpower5 will be aboutercent of that in the US. It is planned that Soviet consumption willear for the, comparedrojected growthercent in the US.
Although there hasteady growth in consumption ofby all sectors of the Soviet economy, the proportionaltransportation and the rural economy has increased at theindustry and the urban economy. Nevertheless, the latter twostill accounted for approximatelyndercent,the total final consumption'.!
Consumption of electric power by industry In the USSR increased at an average rate of5ear,4 billion kwhillion kwh0illion kwh Plans call for consumption to grow at on average annual rate ofercent,illion kwh2illion kwh Consumption in industry grew fromercent of the US level5 toercent0 and is planned to growf the projected US level The increases in consumption
* The estimates and conclusions in this report represent theof this Office aspril'
** Final consumption of electric power is consumption by the ultimate consumer and excludes power that is used by the powerplants themselves, lost in the process of transmission, or exported from the country. Final consumption averages5 percent of the total gross production. Gross production of electric power is the net production sent out from the powerplant plus the electric power used by the powerplant Itself.ollows on p. 2.
Table 1
Estimated Allocation of the Total Final Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Economic Sector Selected,5 Plan
Billion Kilowatt-Hours
Economic Sector
in
economy
economy
eflection of the sustained over-all industrial growth and, more particularly, of the rapid growth of the power-intensive nuclearindustry.
Consumption of electric power by the other productive sectors of the Soviet economy* grew as fast as or more rapidly than consumption by the industrial sector. Consumption increased at an average annual rate ofercent ln construction,ercent inandercent in the rural economy, although the annual rate haslightly downward trend. The rapid increases in these sectors are attributable for the most purtrogressively increasing electrification program.
Consumption of electric power by each branch of industry in the USSR has increased steadily each year The share allocated to the fuel, ferrous metallurgical, and machine building and raetaluorklng branches of industry decreased fromercent5 toercent During thisew industry, the nuclear materials industry, was inserted into the consumption pattern and consumed increasingly larger amounts of electric power until,t was using almostercent of all electric power allocated to industry. Apparently the plan is that the proportional allocation to the fuel, ferrousand machine building and metalworking branches of industry
* The urban economy is not considered toroductive sector in Soviet statistical practice. Tlie annual rate of growth of consumption of electric power by the urban economy was less thanercent for the.
will decline to hi percent5 end tbat tbe share of the nuclear materials industry will grow to more than l8 percent. Tlie estimated consumption of electric power in the USSR by consuming branch ofIs shown in
Consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials industry in the USSR is estimated to have grownillion kwh0 and6 billion kwh1illion kwh more than were consumed by all industry The Soviet plan for consumption of electric power apparently calls for consumption by the nuclear materialsto continue to grow to aboutillion kwh2 andillion kwh It is estimated that the nuclear materials industry in the USSR usedercent as much electric power as did the US Atomic Energy Commission (USAEC)1 and that. If future planned growth is carried out, the Soviet nuclear materials industry5 will be consumingercent more power than the US nuclear materials industry, mostlyesult of rapid growth ln the USSR but also ln partesult of planned lower consumption in the US.
The distribution of consumption of electric power In the USSR by area reflects 'the gradual eastward movement of Soviet economic activitynd the rapid growth, in the eastern RSFSR, of thematerials industry in the Seven Year.
Industry has used and will continue to use about two-thirds of the electric power allocated to the European RSFSR and three-fourths or the power allocated to the non-RSFSR republics in the Europeanf the USSR. In these areas the nuclear materials industry hasegligible factor in the growth of power consumption. The consumption of electric power grewercent in the Urals area. About one-third of this growth resulted from the expanding requirement of the nuclear materials Industry to an estimated levelillion kwh Although consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials industry is to continue to grow in the Urals area to an estimated level1 billion kwhhe major additions to consumption will be in the nonnuclcar industries.
* ollows on p. k. ** The areas referred to in this report are those defined on the map. Figureollowing p. U, and do not necessarily coincide with theconomic regions that formerly existed in the USSR. The term eastern areas as used in this report includes that part of the USSR east Of the Urals areathat is, the eastern RSFSR, Kazakh SSR, and the central Asian republics. The term European areas as used ln this reportthat port of the USSR west of the Urole areathat is, the European RSFSR, the Baltic republics, the Belorussian SSR, the Ukrainian SSR, and the Transcaucasus. The Urals area Is considered separately.
Table 2
Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power In the USSR, by Branch of Industry
5 Plan
Plan
Brar.ch of Industry Kilowatt-Houra
Kilowatt-Hours
Kilowatt-Houra
metals
metals
building and
tal working
voodworklng.
paper
materials
Industry
industry
materials
Industry
4
Because of rounding, data may not add from the absolute data shown.
the total
and percentages may not be directly derived
The Influence of the growth of the nuclear materials industry ls most apparent ln tho eastern RSFSR. About one-third of theincrease in consumption of electric power ln this areaccurredesult of the expanding consumption by thematerials industry to an estimated levelillion kvb About one-half ofercent increase In consumption of electric power planned for the areapparently will be attributable to increased consumption by the nuclear materialslt Is estimated that5 the nuclear materials Industry in the eastern RSFSR will consumeillion kwh, two-thirds of the total national consumption of electric power by the industry. In the Central Asian republics, although the nuclear materials industry has continued to use abouto l'j percent of tbe total consumption, the major impetus to growth in consumption of electric power is nonnuclear industry.
A continuation of recent past trends in the growth of consumption of electric power by the various sectors of the Soviet econony would result ln the goals for consumption of electric power by theand transportation sectorseing exceeded by aboutillion kwh, respectively. imilar projection for the industrial, urban, and rural sectors indicates that their goals for consumption will not bo fulfilled. It is estimated that industry will consumeillion kwh less than the goal and that the urban and rural -tors vlll each fall short of Its consumption goal by about
billion kvh. rojection of pest trends would thus result In ths total final consumption falling short of the planned goalillion kwh. Within the Industrialeries of estimates for Individual Industries, most of which were based on past trends. Indicates thatprobably will oxceed the goal byillion kwh ln thebuilding and metolvorklng industries andillion kwh ln the construction materials Industry. On the other hand, consumption may fall abort of the planillion kvh In the chemical industry and byillion kwh in each of tbe following: the nonferrous metalsthe timber, woodworking, and paper industry; and light industry and will approximately fulfill the plan in the other nonnuclear Industries. If Soviet industryhole fails to fulfill tho plan for conoumption of electric powerillion kwh and nonnuclear industry failsillion kwh, the nuclear materials industry will fall abort of Ita goal by about
billion kwh. The underfulfillment of plans for consumption of electric pover indicated above for all final consumers, for industryhole, and Tor the nuclear materials industry la in each case ao small as to fall well within the range of error attached to the estimates of consumption by these consumers, and ltstimated that plans for the totalof electric power will be approximately fulfilled.
I. Allocation of the Total Final Consumption by Economic Sector
The total final consumption of electric power by the Soviet economy grew steadily0 billion kwh5illion kwh0illion kwhl and is expected to reach approximately the planned levelsillion kwh2illion kwh The estimated final consumption of electric power in the USSR is given in Table U* and is shownin* Pinal consumption increasedf the total gross production56 percent0 and is expected to remain at this level Soviet final consumption of electric power increased2 percent ofUS consumption3 percent0 and has grown at an average annual rate ofercent, compared with 8in the US. oviet consumption of electric power will be aboutercent of projected US consumption. Sovietis planned to growate ofear, cosiparedercent in the US. of electric power in the US is compared with that ln the USSR in the chart.*
The estimated allocation of the final consumption of electric power to the consuming sectors or the Soviet economy for selected, is summarized innd is shown graphically in* Thereteady growth in consumption of electric power by all sectors, but the proportionalto transportation and the rural economy increased at theof Industry and the urban economy. Estimated rates of growth in consumption of electric power by the various sectors of the Soviet economy are shown in
1. Industry
Consumption of electric power by industry in the USSRat an average annual rate5 percent, growing4 billion kwh5illion kwh0illion kwhI, and is planned to grow at an average annual rate of about
ollows on p.* Followingollows on p. 8.
*7
}
ercentevelillion kvh2illion kwh Consumption by industry declined7 percent of the total final consumption of electric power in the USSR53 percent0 and is planned to decline further1 percent Consumption by industry grew fromercent of the US level5 toercent0 and is planned to grow toercent of the projected US level5 (see.
Table 3
Estimated Average Annual Increases in Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Economic Sector, for Five-Year Periods
Percent
Sector
struetion
economy
economy
final consumption
Consumption of electric power by industry has grownore rapid rate than industrial production. he index of consumption of electric power by industry grew at an averageear faster than the officially announced Soviet index of the gross value of industrial outputear fasteromputed index of industrial, output.** he index of consumption of electric power by industry is expected to continue toeer faster than the computed index of industrial output. omparison of indexes of growth of consumption of electric power and of output is given for the productive sectors of the Soviet
* Following* An index of gross values for individual, commodities and branches aggregated5 value-added weights. This index is as comparable as data will permit with the index of industrial production of the US Federal Reserve Board.
n the chart.* The more rapid growth lnof electric power hasesulttructural shift In consumption of electric power within the induatrial aector,in part to the fact that power-intensive electrotechnicallargely in the metallurgical, chemical, and machineindustries) have consumed an ever-increasing share of the total consumption and in port to the steadily growing importance ofof electric power by the nuclear materials industry.
Consumption of electric power tn Soviet industry perwage worker increasedercentnd in the latter yeart kwh per worker,ercent of the US level at that time. he number of productive wage workers in the USSR grew byercent.
The major use of electric power ln Soviet industry has been for motor drive for production machinery. Consumption ofpower for motor drive declinedhare of the totalby industry2 percent5 percent8 end is to decline further to aboutercent The major consumers of electric power for motor drivel were the fuel, ferrous metallurgical, machine building und metalworking, and nuclear materials industries. In the latter industry, gaseous diffusion plants consumed most of the power that went to motor drive.
'J*ie roost rapidly growing type of use for electric power in Soviet industry is technological use for electrochemical und electrothermal purposes. Such consumption grew2 percent of the total industrial consumption of electric power56 percent8 and is planned to increase toercent About one-third Of the technological consumption of electric power8 was by the nonferrous metals industry. The ferrous metallurgical, chemical, and machine building Industries eachfor nearlyercent of the total technologicalof electric power. Half of the expenditures for technological use in the chemical industry were for coproduction of heavy water
* Industry, construction, transportation, and the rural economy arc considered to be the productive sectora of the economy in Soviet statistical practice.
** Following Electrotechnioal uses Include the electrothermal production of such items as electric steel, ferroalloys, and carbide; theproduction of such products us aluminum, chlorine, and heavy water; and various other electrotechnioal processes such as induction heating and electric welding.
- ll
and synthetic ammonia. The nuclear materials Industry usedercent or the total technological consumption for production of calcium, lithium, and other products.
Consumption of electric power for other uses (mostly lighting and ventilation) by Soviet Induatry steadily declinedercentage of total use,6 percent57 percentnd may decline further toercent
2. Other Sectors
Consumption of electric power in the other productive sectors of the Soviet economy grew more rapidly than in thesector, having Increased at an average annual rate of lu percent in conotruction,ercent In transportation,ercent in the rural economy, although the annual ratelightly downward trend. The rapid increases in these sectors have been attributable almost exclusivelyrogressively increasing electrification program.
esult of the rapid electrification of construction activity, consumption of electric power by the construction sector of the economy grew much more rapidly than did construction andwork. owever, the increasingon the more efficient use of electric power and the rapid growth of the precast reinforced concrete industry have depressed the rate of growth in consumption of electric power compared withactivity. Consumption or electric power by the precast reinforced concrete induatry Is amolgnmnted with industry rather than with construction. It is estimated that construction and installation work will continue to grow as rapidly as consumption of electric power by the construction sectorsee Figure
'ihe rapid growth In consumption of electric power by the transportation sector also has been accompaniedtructural change in the pattern of power consumption by the sector, involving much more rapid growih io consumption of power by electric traction. onsumption of electric power had grown2 billion kwh,imes5 level, while traffic turnover had grown lessimes (sec it is estimated that consumption will grow toillion kwh2 and toillion kwh Theof electric traction on Soviet railroads accountedtkwh ofbillion-kwh increase in the use of electric power by this sectornd la expected to account for allillion kwh of7 billion kwh of growth anticipated
Following
-
rpwth of Consumption offelconomic
tfaattea oi ilwtik pmri
CHtotfduBrW imlirto.
DjOWtolOf(.BJkIo.
im
Hu
TRANSPORTATION
Guiunfttir ofm
Vdur-inil mm: luiom (totHeiiti.il
Pbo
RURAL ECONOMY
Cmunfftl" ili
7
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SO i'
1'
a I"
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-SECRET^
The rates of growth in consumption of electric power have been most rapid for the rural economy, partly because or the extremely low level of electrification prevailing in this sector. roseillion kwh5illion kwh05 billion kwh1 and is planned to continue to increaseate of aboutercent per year toillion kwh Less thanercent of the kolkhozes andercent of the uovkbozes and tractor stations were electrified 0 the proportion using electricity in some form had grown toercentercent, respectively. Although allenterprises are to be electrifiedhe level of the average consumption of electric power by each electrified kolkhoz ia to fall still further behind that of each electrified sovkhoz as the result of thefuller electrification of the aovkhozes. Whereas0 the average electrified kolkhoz usedercent as much power as the average electriried sovkhoz,0 the kolkhoz level had fallen toercent, and5 it will fall further toercent of the sovkhoz level.
In contrast to the situation ln the other productive aee-tora of tho Soviet economy, the increasing electrification of the rural economy is to be attributed as much to social and ideological sa toeconomic motives. The growth In rural electrification has been directed mainly toward bringing the umonltles of the city to theand to mechanizing the stationary work of tbe farm laborer.
Consumption of electric power by the urban economyat an averagerale6 percent,illion kwh55 billion kwh Although the share of the urban economy in the total final consumption of electric power in the USSR declined slightlyroaercent6 percent0he urban economy has remained the second largest consuming sector. Consumption by the urban sector of the economy Is planned to Increase toillion kwhhen the sector is to use6 percent of the total final consumption. Within the urban sector,consumption of electric power for living needs (including stores and schools) haa grown onlyear. The moat rapidly growing part of the urban sector of the economy (in terms of consumption of electric power) has been the governmental part, which includescommunications, military, and research facilities. of electric power by governmental establishmentsearndearlone. Consumption of electric power for living needs per urban Inhabitant in the USSR remained aboutoercent of similar US Because of the much more rapid rote of growth of the total final consumption in the USSR, however, living needs have taken ansmaller share of the total consumption of electric power in the USSR, while at the same time such needs have taken an Increasingly larger oliure in the US.
-
It is possible, if past trends in consumption of electric power continue, that the planned levels of consumption by theand transportation sectors of the economyill be exceeded by as muchillionillion kwh, respectively. It is equally possible that consumption in the industrial sector of the economy will fall short of5 eoal by as muchillion kwh and that the urban and rural sectors will each fail to achieve their goals byillion kwh. The total final consumption thus mayillion kwh below the planned levelillion kwh. The probability ofmall underfulfillment cannot bc established at this time.
C. Distribution by Area
The distribution of the final consumption of electric power in the USSRy area, is shown in Tablend on the map.* Consumption of electric power in the eastern areas has grown more rapidly than in any other area, having grownimes the national average in the. Consumption in these areas is plunned to growimes that planned for the countryhole. The share of the eastern areas in the total final consumption of electric power in the USSR increased fromercent0 toercent8 and is to grow toercent The only other area to increuse its consumption more rapidly than tho national average was the non-RSFSR area of the European USSR, which0 had not yet fully repaired the war damages. Consumption in the Urals area was aboutercent of the national total,8 but will decline to l6 percent The fuel-short European RSFSRmaller portion of the total final consumption ofpower8 than0 and willtill smaller share
The great variations by aiea in the structure of the allocation of electric power in the USSR8 are shown on The Urals area, whichelatively greater concentration of heavy industry than the other areas, allocatesercent to industry, whereas the national allocation is aboutercent to industry. The older areas of theRSFSR allocateercent. The comparatively slow rate Of expansion of the economy of the Urals area is reflected by the fact that it usedercent of its power for construction, whereas other areas more closely approximated the national average of '( perceat. The influence of the electrification of the Trans-Siberian Railroad is shown in the high allocation to the transportation sector in the Urals urea und in the
ollows onollowingbove.ollows on
Table 5
Eatimated Distribution of the Total Final Consumption of Bloc trie Power in the USSR, by Area a/ Selected,5 PUn
Area
Kilowatt-Hours
Kilowatt-Hours
Kilowatt-Hours
Kilowatt Sours
areaa
*
area
areas
2
final consumption
See the second footnote on p.bove.
-
Table 6
Estimated Structure of Allocation of the Final Consumption Of Electric Power in the USSB, by Area and by Economic Sector a/
Percent
Kurouoat: Areas
Economic Sector RSFSR Bon-RSFSR Urals Area Eastern Areas Total
Industry
economy
economy
See the second footnote on p.bove.
eastern areas. The higher proportional allocation of electric power to the urban economyhe European RSFSR can be attributed molnly toby Leningrad and Moscow, with their highly developed urbanand many governmental establishments.
The estimated distribution of consuaption of electric powerin the USSR by area is shown in Tablend on the* The paramount position of the European RSFSR, whichone-third of all consumption of electric power by industry lnstill maintained owever, the share of thisplanned to decline to about one-fourth of consumption ofby industry. The non-RSFSR area of the European USSR haauned aboutillion kwh leoo than the RSFSR foruppomitly will continue to do so inof the Urals
n consumption of electric power by Industry in the USSR, which was between one-fourth and one-fifth of the total conaumption, is planned to decline to leas than one-fifth The eastern RSFSR usedoercent of the total amount of powerby Soviet Industrynd, according to the Seven Year Plan, apparently will use almost one-fourth of the powerto industry
ollows on* Following p. U, above.
Table 7
Estimated Distribution of Consumption of Electric Power by Industry in the UiSSR, by Area a/ Selected,5 Plan
Billion Kilowatt-Hours
Area
Han
areas
.1
area
areas
industry
the second footnote on p.bove.
II. Branch Allocation of Consuaption by Industry A. Trends
Consumption of electric power by each branch of industry in the USSR has steadily increased each yeari5. The Share allocated to the fuel, ferrous metallurgical, and machine building and metal-working branches of industry decreased fromercent50ew industry, the nuclear materials industry, wasinto the consumption pattern and consumed increasingly larger amounts of electric power, until0 it was using almost l4 percent of all electric power allocated to industry. It is apparently planned* that the proportional allocation to the fuel, ferrous Metallurgical, and machine building and motaluorking branches of Industry will decline to5 and chat the share of the nuclear materials industry will grow to more than l8 percent. ense, then, consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials industry has grown at the expense of the
* Planned consumption of electric power by various branches of industry7 is derived fron planned output by the respective branches ofand from planned or projected trends in unit conaunption ofpower.
-
fuel, ferrous metallurgical, and machine building and metalworking branches of industry, and other consumershole have retained roughly the same shares throughoutyear period. The estimated consumption of electric power by Soviet industry Is summarized by branch of industry in Tablend shown graphically ln*
The planned levels of consumption indicated forrobably will be achieved in most branches of industry. Present estimateshowever, that consumption of electric power probably will be short of the plan byillion kwh in the chemical industry andil-lion kwh ln each of the following;: the nonferrous metals industry; the timber, woodworking, and paper industry; and light industry. It isthat consumption of electric power will exceed the plan byillion kwh In the construction materials induatry andillion kwh in the machine building and metalworking industry and willfulfill the plan in the other nonnuclear branches of industry. If Soviet Industryhole fails to fulfill the plan for consumption of electric powerillion kwhrojection of recent trends would indicate) and if nonnuclear Industry fails to achieve planned levels of consumptionillion kwh, the nuclear materials Industry will fall short of its planned consumption5illion kwh. As the degree of underfulfillment of plans for consumption of electric power by Industryhole and by the nuclear materials industry in particular Ib small enough to fall within the range of error attached to the estimates of consumption by these conaumere, it is eatimated that the plane for consumption of electric power will be approximately
A comparison of the pattern of consumption of electric power by various branches of industry in the USSR8 with that in the US shows that the relative allocation of electric power to the fuel industry in the USSR was much greater and that the relative share going to the metallurgical and the machine building and metalworking industries was considerably greater than in the US. The relative allocation to the timber, woodworking, and paper industry and to the chemical and nuclear materials industries in the US was, however, much greater than ln the USSR, as is shown in
B. Major honnuclear Branches of Industry
Consumption of electric power by the fuel, industry isto have2 billion kwh02 billion kwheven times5 level and more than consumption by any other
ollows on Followingollows on
-
1ittc!
I
lj
M1 1
:;lff
1
!
flk
-SECRET -
Estimated Dmsuirrptiun of Electric Pcwec in ti Branch af
Table 9
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power ln the USSR and the US by Branch of8
Billion
Industry
as a
of Industry
of
7
3
building
metalworking
woodworking.
paper
materials
i ndustry
industry
materials
industry
group of industries. The rapid growthesult not only ofercenl increaseroduciion of coamercial fuel* but also ofpercent increase ln the specific consumption of electric power per ton of Standard fuel produced. Within the fuel industry the coul industry has been by far the largest consumer, although theallocation to the petroleum and natural gas industry has been gradually increasing, as shown in"
The amount of electric power needed toetricf standard fuel, in the coal Industry increasedypercentesult of greater mechanization and the higherof cleaning activity, but the corresponding figure in the oil
isured in standard fuel units, defined asilocal-
bleollows on
rinuges are given in metric tons, throughout this report.
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1
and natural gas industry waa at the same level0 ashe latter Industry increased Its levels of electrificationbut was able to offset these increases by stressing the development of less power-intensive methods of petroleum extraction. It is estimated that consumption of electric power by the2 will6 billion kwh and that the55 billion kwh. It Is estimated that tho actual consumption will be close to this level, as consumption goalo oi* the cool industry probably will be underfulfil led by about the some amount that consumption goals of the petroleum industry will be overfulfilled, largelyesult of decreased production In the coal industry and Increased production In the petroleum industry.
The ferrous metallurgical industry van the largest consumer of electric power In Soviet Industry throughout most of the postwar period, as consumption grewillion kvh5 billion kwh00 billion kwhl. , consumption ofpower per ton of finished product decreased byercent as aof increasing efficiency ln operation, but1 thefor electric power, per ton of product, have grown byercentesult of the processing of progressively leaner ores, the use of more power-intensive production techniques, and the increasing complexity of the product mix. Within the industry the relative shares of electric power allocated to raining operations have remained about the flame in spite of more complex processing. area allocated to coke and finishing operations have Increasedesult of tbe Increasingof product mix, whereas the shares allocated to basic proceaElng and to miscellaneous auxiliary operations have decreasedesult of increasing efficiencies in operation. It is eatimated that consumption of electric power by the ferroua metallurgical industry2 will be close toillion kwh and that the planned consumption5 Isillion kwh. It is estimated that the plan for production of steel ir. the USSB5 will be exceeded but thnt the plan for consumption of electric power by the ferrous metallurgical induatry will not beontinuation ofver theears would Indicate that the overfulfilment of production cf steel will be more than offset by an underfulfillment in the rather ambitious plan for increasingof electric power per ton of product.
The nonferrous metallurgical industry is estimated to havek billion kwh1 compared1 billion kwh5illion kvh , there has been aannual reductionercent ln consumption of electric power per ton of productesult of Increasing efficiencies in con-aunptlon of electric power. It la estimated lhat consumption by the nonferrous metallurgical Industry will3 billion kwhhat the plan55 billion kwh, of6 billion kwh
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are to be uaed for light metals; and thafc;the. aetual. consumption of electric power by .thebranch5 will; be!llliloD;kvbless than planned bocauoe of the probable underfulflllmenfc-lo-the plan for production of the copperThe: relative shares -of :the .various nonferrous metals industries .in consumption- ofower bybranches are estimated to have changed.as', shown in Table.ll;*,
-;. aichemical industry has consistently usedhe total Industrial consumption.of-electric Consumption is estimated to. havewhis expected to be aboutbillion kwhndgrow to7 billion kwhper ruble of output by the chemical Industry haaesult,of the declining relative importance withof Industry of power-intensive electrochemical"productionincreasing efficiency in the use of>electrleof electric power among tbe. major coniponents of theIndustry le shown ln TablenoJ tV
Mtv SnlaatrtSivr
.here.has boon.an;increasing.-allo-cation of electric power-to, productiont of..heavy'wotof by/fl&ectrplysis. It is estimated, that consumption of electrlc-powcr-by, the:.chomlcal Industry may beillion kwh less than planned,esult of the probable underfulfillment of>production goalfli***
The Soviet machine building and metal working Industry Isto havo increased Itswh59 billion kwh9 bllllon/kvn6 billion kwh3 billion kwh About, three-fourths of this power, goes to machine building and-theto metal working and repair. Consuaption of. electric poweron of ferrouG metals used by thie branch of Industry is estimated .to. have increased only slightly ln the postwar.period. An approximateofercent in consumption of electric power, foruses (such ao electric furnaces, heatnd welding) per ton of ferrous mctala used has been offset by an equivalent- reduction in the amount of power used for such purposes aa lighting, and he amounts of power used for, tho manufacturing of producers durables Increased fromercent toercent of the total power consumption by the machine building Industry. The amounts of power estimated to have been allocated to consumers durables increased
* Tableollows on
** Tableollows on p.
*** Based on estimated production of the chemical industry5rojection of the relationship between consumption of electric power and output of the chemical industry/
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3
Table 12
Estimated Allocation of CofUMsptloo of Electric Pover by tba Chemical Industry In tba USSR a/ Selacted,5 Plan
Plan
Branch of the Kilowatt-Chemical Industry Hours
Kilowatt-
Hours Percent
Kilowatt-Hours
en*.
Kilowatt-Hcurp
chemicals and mineral fertilizers
group
group
Inorganic chemicals
group
'
organic chemicals (including synthetics)
chemical products
>** M
3
Because of rounding, data froa the absolute data shovn.
BjOi
to the
shown
percentages may not Be directly dcrivtd
ercentercent in the same period, whereas consumption of electric power by military end items ic estimated to have fallenercent of the total consumption by machine building0 toercent robable overfulfillment in the production plan5 for machine building aod metalworking together with aof the past trend in the relationship between consumption ofpower and the value of output indicates that consumption of electric power by this branch of industry5 may beillion kwh more than theillion kwh planned.
Other industries have not individually been major consumers of electric power, although they have, in total, used large amounts of electric power.
C. Distribution by Area
The branch structure of consumption of electric power by industry in the various areas of the USSR showed two trendshat are worthy of note. Host noticeable was the introduction into thepattern in the UrolB and eastern areasubstantialof electric power to the nuclear materials induatry accompaniedecline in the share of other industries in power consumption by area. Consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials industry grewoercent of the total power consumption byin the Urals area,ercent ln the eastern RSFSR, andercent in Central Asia and Kazakhstoa. Except for this development, however, there haseneral tendency throughout most areas for theallocation of power to any one branch of industry to decrease and for the consumption pattern of tbe area to become more diversified, as areas have become more balanced in their Industrial development. Theallocation of consumption of electric power by branch of industry and by area in the USSR8 is shown in*
According to plans, the nuclear materials industry is to account for an even greater percentage of consumption of electric power in the eastern RSFSRhen it is to useercent of the power allocated to industry in the area. 5 the nuclear materials industry is still to useercent of the power consumed by industry ln the Urals andercent in the Central Asian republics and Kazakhstan. The estimated planned structure of the branch allocation of consumption of electric power by industry and by area in the USSR5 is shown In
* Tableollows* Table ik follows on p.text continued On.
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Mil;
Table 14
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR by Branch of Industry and by Area5 Plan
Billion Kilowatt-Hours
EuropeanAreas
Branch of Industry
Area
metals
metals
building and
woodworking,
paper
Ji
tier, materials
y
industry
'
;;<
industry
materials
industries
industry
See the second footnote on p.bove. Because cf rounding, data aay not add to the totals shown, and percentages may not be directly derived from the absolute data shown.
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Ill, Consumption by the Kuclcor Materials Industry
A. Trends
Starting from insignificant levels in the immediate poatvar period, consumption of electric power by the nuclear materialsln the USSR le estimated to have grown4 bill Ion kwh06 billion kwhI. Apparently it is planned that thecontinue its rapid growth end that It will use close toillion kwh2 andillion kwh* Tbe estimated consuaption of electric power by the nuclear materlnle Industry In the USSR' and In the US ie given in* and ia shown graphically in It is estimated that1 the nuclear materials industry. .In tho .USSR usedercent as much electric power as did the USAEC; that the Soviet industry will uaoercent as muchnd that,'If planned future changes ore carried out, it will be consuming5 significantly greater amounts of electric power than the US nuclear materials. Industry. If, as is quite possible, Soviet consumption does not exceedillion kwht will still exceed that of the US. Hot5 will thematerials industry in the USSR useercent of the electric power allocated tohare attained by the UShen theby tbe US industry reached ita peak.
lhe major share of the power used by the Soviet nuclear materials industry has gone to the gaseous diffusion program for production ofenriched- It is estimated that gaseous diffusion plants in the USSR used close toillion kwh0billion kwh. It also is estimated that gaseous diffusion plants are .planned to use aboutillion kwh2 and almost twice this amountompared with the US program, the Soviet nuclear materials Industry apparentlyuch larger proportion or consumption of electric power for technological uses, such aa electrolysis and electric furnaces.
B. Distribution by Area
The Urals and the eastern RSFSR together have used aboutoercent of the electric power estimated to have been consumed by the nuclear materials industry in the USSR. The amounts of electric power
* The figures given for the planned consumption of electric power by the Soviet nuclear materials industry25 are derived from national and area power balances based on fragmentary Soviet data and thus are estimated plans rather than directly reported plans. ** Tableollows on Followingbove.
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!fi|
Be? ill j
V 'it TrT
o have been consuoed^by the nuclear materials industry in the USSR, distributed by area, ore given 1'or selected years in Tablend are shown on the map.
. Table
Estimatedonsumption of Electric Power by the Nuclear! teterlale^^dtiatry in the USSR, by Area a/ Selected,5 Han
: -. Kilowatt-Hours
8 0 . .5 Flan
European areas
RSFSR
0.8
area
1^6
8.6
ureas
3.1
Sec the second footnote^onp. 3,
* fc-tlvSft
The nuclear materials industry in the Urals area has consistently used about half of the electric power allocated to the' industry, having increased its consumption. billion kwh0illion kwh5lUion kwh Soviet plans apparently call for consumption to increase to an estimated level ofbillion kwh
Until recently, the second largest consumption by area has been in the eastern RSFSR, where consumption If. estimated to have grownill ion kwh0illion kwh5illion kwh It is estimated, however, that nuclear materials enterprises In the eastern RSFSR05 billion kwhmore than similar enterprises in the Urals.
An analysis of Soviet plans indicates that consumption Of electric powery the nuclear materials Industry in the eastern
p. U, above.
RSFSR will grow byillion kwh, en amount in excess of the totalby the nuclear materials industry in the USSR0 and equal toercent of the total growth in consumption by the industry in the period. Plans" apparently call for consumption ofillion kwh, two-thirds of the total consumption by the Soviet nuclear materials industry. In the eastern RSFSR Thie amount will be substantially the same as that to be consumed by tbe three gaseous diffusion plants in the Oakortsmouth complex in the US. If the USSR falle to fulfill ita apparent plan for consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials industryhe underfulfillment probably will occur in the eastern RSFSR.
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Original document.
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