Current Intelligence Weekly Summary
fiPFfiQWO FOP, RELEASE DATE JUL 7MI
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE Of CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
the brrakoff of hi* third round of talks withTshombe. Congolese Premier Adoula haa Indicated hia bewilderment over what to do next. He told the USlast weok that TabomM'a ideaettlement wasdifferent from his own and that be was "not going to have any raoro to do with It."
Adoula's frustrations arise out of the fact thst ha has neither forces nor finances to use against Tshombe, while the Katangan leader stillman. European-led gendarmerie and the tuxfrem the Belgian mining operations. Tho Congolese Army (AMC) is over twice as largo as Tshombe'e, but itto be undisciplined, without experienced leadership or aonno of strategy, and uttorly primitive in its logistics, he efforts to retrsin it have never gotten under way.
A'loula thus has been forced to depend on tho multinational UN Command, whose actions are determined not ln Leopoldvllle but ln New York snd which ls subjectedariety ofpressuros. UN forces ln two battles with the Ka-tangnns were bontod in tho first ound by superior militaryin the second, they were denied full victory by an international outcry against the fighting and Tshombe's that he was willing to negotiate. ge thenhas been assiduouslyinternational opinion favorable to Katanga, and UN military action against him has become an increasinglystop for the UN to take.
The predictably fatal effect on Adoula's leadership of continued failure inand the deepeningcrisis both in the Congo and ln the UN lead eventhat tni> npxrsnnn should be to convene tbe joint commissions agreed to by Adoula and Tshombe, aftor which the two leaders should meet again. If nothing comes of this, Bunche has said, the secretary general would present the problem to the UN's CongoCommittee and tell it the time has come for economicoves by the US to collect Tshombe's mining revenues and to control hia ox-ports, together with Belgium's froealng UXHK assets ln bant, however, Is concerned with the effectsfighting would have on tbe UN finances. He feels that hoew mandate from the Security Council for such moves, although he is awsre of the difficulties ofougher Security Councilln the face of probable British acd French opposition.
Tshombe. meanwhile, taln-talns an appearance of he has0 In nld for the rest of the Congo and quickly appointed the
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Xngan nembera Of the Jolul commissions. At thu sane tine, however, he le probablynoves to undortilne Adoula. He has publicly joined tbe attack on Foreign Hlnlater Booboko and has charged that Adoula no longer baa thoof the Leopoldville Aatl-Adoula groups from Leopoldville have been reported conferring withleaders ln
In Leopoldville. Adoula has tried to ward off theattacks on hisby making another cabinet reorganization. The mainhas comeoalition of extreme leftists led by Lumumblst Vice Premier Chrls-tophe Gbenyo and "rightist" dissidents Includingonakat deputies. ThoLeopoldville Province party Abako, led by Congolese President Knsavulm, has also been antagonisedill which aouldadoral district of Leopoldville city. Abako. normally pro-Adoula. now has Joined tho attack.
Preliminary rnportn on Adoula's reorganized cabinet state that Bomboko. aobject of oppositionhas been retained as foreign slalater. Intorlor Ministerormer Glzcnglst who haatalwart of the Adoula regime, has also been kept On. Gbenye has been dropped, although six lesser lights of the moderate wing Of bis party were given poets. The anll-Tsbombe Baluba tribal leader from northern Katanga. Jason Sendwo, lsas the only vice premier.
Glzenga had been one of the throe vice premiers, as had Equateur Province leader Joan Bollkango. Adoula, during his talks with Tshombe, offered to
ice presidency for blm and two other ministries for other Katangan leaders, but the offer was rejected. Gbenye, Bollkango, and their followers now arc likely to move even closer to the Glzengists, and to the Conakat party.
Adoula has stayed in Office In part because there have been no other leaders able andto take on the Job. Bis opponents are clearly becoming bolder, however; they findln popularover the high living of government officials ln the face of unemployment and hunger anong the masses. The Congo's foreign exchange reserves are again near exhaustion, and there ls talk of another devaluation. The Congolese franc now is quoted ln Brusselso the dollar; par*
Adoula continues to have trouble ln the provinces which nominally recognize his Orlentale, Kasai, and Kivu have been particularly troublo-some, as pro- and antl-Adoula forces struggle for provincial power. In Orlentale, Adoula has sought ever slnco theof the Oizenga regime there toovernment more responsive to leopoldville.
Even if the Katanganwere miraculously solved, new difficulties thus would be likely to spring up. One of the dangers likely to face any central government is thedemand for the creation of still moreas many These deaands, reflecting tribal differences, are being taken upost of local political leaders who see themselves as futurepresidents. Thotrend at present thus ls toward ereater fragmentation
f 24Original document.