CIWR: BRAZIL

Created: 9/21/1962

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Current Intelligence Weekly Review

INTELLIGENCE

OFFICE OF CUWENT

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NO FOREIGN

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topjecrej^tnar

CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW

brazil

politicalId Brazil have strength-encd President Goulart'sposition for tbeonths. Oneptember tbe Congressanuary as the datelebiscite on tbe parliamentary system adopted to Curb Goulart's power when ba tookear ago. Congress also empowered him torovisional cabinot without parliamentary approval, an arrangement which allowed the legislators to resumeforctober elections.

The plebiscite is generally expected to resulttrong presidency. Political attention nowocused on tho balloting for two thirds of the ienate. the entire Chamber of Deputies, eleven state governors,umber of lesser state and municipal offices.

The elections are expected to result in somo diminution of the axehconwev'vative majority in the legislature. Extreme leftists, who havef the seats In tbeare likely to make some gains. Goulart's anti-US brother-in-law, state governor Leonel Brizola, who aspires to leadership of the leftistforces in Brazil, le likely to be elected as federal deputy. Tbe Braziliansystem, however, hasresistance to sharp swings of the political pendulum, and thore is little chance that the leftists willajority in either house of Congress.

The three most Important gubernatorial races are in Gou-lart'e hone state of Rio Grande do 3ul, the Industrial state of Sao Paulo, and in Pernambuco. the key state in the impoverished northeast. In Rio Grande do Sul the race is among threeeach of whom Is lessthan Incumbent Governor Brizola. Goulart's Labor Party candidate Miebaeleoa appeara to be trailing both thecandidate and areformer.

In Sao Paulo, tbe race to be very close between corrupt nachlne politiciande Barros and erraticPresident Quadros. lapro-Comnunist Miguel Arraes appears to be losing ground to his stronglyopponent.

If Mlchaelson, Quadros and Arraes all are defeated, thehas appeared increasingly menacing during tbe pastrecede, andpro-US former President Kubltschek believes It will then be possible to renove Coamunlstfrom many of tho of-rice* -hero they now are Installed.

TOTJ^errrT DINAR

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