Current Intelligence Weekly Summary
! Ill PHUT EXEMPTIONS
central intelligence agency
of current intelligence
THE BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS
stake in the national elections scheduled for 7in Brazilwof the Senate seats, andeats in the Chamber of Deputies, as wellonsiderable number of lesser state offices.
The gubernatorial contests are probably the mo>tt Important. Governors ln Brazil haveIndependent authority. Including that of negotiating with bloc governments foraid. Preliminary indications are that as aany am sevencould be won by anti-US candidates.
The three most significant of the gubernatorial contests are probably those in Pernambuco, the most important state lo Brazil's impoverished northeast; in Sao Paulo, the industrial heart of Brazil; and ln Rio Grande do 3ul, which is the home state of leftist President Goulart and of bis demagogic, anti-US brother-in-law, Leonel Brizola, the incumbent governor.
largely because of effective opposition from local business and Catholic Church leaders, who have emphasized hisconnections. Inrevelations ofand inefficiency la Arraos' administration as mayor have impaired his appeal as an adnininirator. This race is
nevertheless expected to be clone.
In Sao Paulo, formerJanlo Quadros Ishree-way contest with apro-I'S machine politicianapable but colorless protege of tbe incumbent pro-US governor. The governor, sho cannot succeed himself undor Brazilian law, bas campaigned wholchonrtiidly for his protege, but Quadrat* and the machine politician, Adhemar do Barron, apparently have an edge. The ConniiniHts are not supporting m, of the three candidates, although Quadros bas veered to the left id tbe past year and evidenced hostility to the US during his period as.
pernambuco,Miguel Arraes, who is well liked and la Just finishing his tern as mayor of the stateis running againstJao Cleophas. Rarly straw polls indicated thaterceat of tbe voters favored Arraesover Cleophas, who is closel;associated with unpopular sugar interests long dominant la the state's economy. Arraes' campaign bas since ruo into difficulties
ln Rio Grande do Sul, there are three Important candidates all of whom are morethan incumbent Governor Brizola. ictory for Egldio Michaelson, candidate of Goulart's Labor Party, would strengthen Goulart and enhance tho reputation of Brizola. It now seens likely tbat Michael-son may be defoated eitherolorless conservative named Meneghetti or by Goulart's
enemy, leftist non-Com-munlst Fernando Ferrari.
Candidates of the extreme left appear to have an even chance in Rio de Janeiro State and Sergipe. Their prospects seem poorer ln Babal and Ccara. In the remaining fourcontests, all thecandidates appear friendly to the us,
Leftists are expected loew gains ln elections for tho Senate. Inftates, all leading candidates are centrists or conservatives. Only Plaui--poorest of allRio de Janeiro arc likely to elect extremists. Inillionaire industrialist associated with pro-Coaununlstas a fair chanco of success, while crypto-Communlst DJalma Barauhao, mayor of Natal, could winictory.
In 'in Chamber of Deputies, cxtremo leftists are expected to Increase their strength froaercent in the present bodyercent in the new Chamber. Two of tbe contests have particular interest. Leonel Brizola, vho ls seeking loader-ship of tbe leftist ultranatlonal-ists, ls running for federal
deputy from Guanabara, and Is seemingly certain to win heavily. Peasant League leader Francisco Jullao ls running for federal deputy from pernambuco. He Is not considered an effective political figure aod. should be win, hia victory could be attributed to tbe volume of publicity which bas surrounded the northeast's Peasant Leagues ln reconl years. efeat for Jullao wouldonsidorablo bloc to Coaaiunlst hopes oftheir Influence in tbe rural aross of the northeast.
f 22Original document.