THE CRISIS USSR/CUBA

Created: 10/31/1962

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

APPROVED FOR RELEASE2

THE CRISIS

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PREPARED FOR THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.

FURTHER DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT AUTHORIZED.

THE SITUATION IN CUBA

Further analysis of low-level photographyrovides clear evidenceconstruction andhave continued at the MRBM sites ln Cuba sincectober. Limited and poor photographyositive assessment of construction activity at IRBH sites. There ls no evidence that the Soviets are dismantling or vacating any of tho sites.

Many of the missile erectors at the MRBM sites have been moved from their hardstands and are no longer visible. There is evidence that at least one of these erectors and most of the missile-associated equipment have been concealed in the woods. As long as missile erectors remain near the MRBM sites, their full operational capability ls not

Launch stands, cabling, and other launchingremain in place at each of the MRBM sites. Removal of tbe cabling would probably be the first step lnoperations.

Construction activity at probable nuclear warhead bunkers has continued sincectober at Sagua La Grande MRBMnd at San Cristobal MRBMnd 3.

There ls increasing evidenceomprehensive air defense system manned by Soviet personnel is reaching full operational status ln Cuba. The communications and control structure of the system, probably not yet completed, now Includes at leastacilities including radar stations radio stations, and filter centers.

"he presence of automatic anti-aircraft weaponsan^assocT^ ated radars at some locations, including the ballisticsites, reflects efforts toefensiveagainst low-flying aircraft.

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Analysis of Soviet merchant ship movements indicates that it wouldinimum of two weeks, and norethree, to assemble in Cuban ports those Soviet dry-cargo ships with hatches suitable for loading missiles.

Dismantling and movement of essential missileto port areas could probably be accomplished within aboutours, buteek would be required for loading.

Inside Cuba, the armed forces remain mobilized, ban radios have announced military exercises, which yesterday and are to continueovember. "

'fjcontlnuing effor consolidate ground force defensive positions.

a unified armed forces mand in urlente province, probably under the direct mand of Saul Castro. The Kronstadt-class subchaser went aground near Banes onctober has still not refloated.

.tter disappointment at the Cuban end of thethat the US invasion many Cubans hadnot materialize. The CIA station in Floridathe morale of the Cuban exile community there hasatow ebb since the failure of the April

The possibilityuban reaction against tbe USSR or of some kind of problem within the Cuban leadership is suggested

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DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS

ly roreign presence in their territory. hant still has hopes of "shaking them out" of this position ln meetings set for this morning. If not, he mayecurity Council meeting for Thursday to seek more guidance.

Cuban propaganda themes-yesterday strongly suggest that Castro is Insisting that his "fivefor major US concessions before any US non-aggression guarantee would be acceptable toinjected Into UN discussions of the issue. Soviet propaganda media haveto refer to these as "Just Cuban demands."

lary, Brazilian pro-Communist General Albinowas receive^byCastroimmodlately on arrival onis

to "restore tne prestige" of Castro in Cuba and Latinby returning the Cuban crisis to the level of aUS-Cuban problem.

Soviet First Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsovagain assured Ambassador Stevenson "emphatically" that the offensive missiles in Cuba would be dismantled andafter which verification could be undertaken by any means the US desired. He said Khrushchev bad told himwould take two or three weeks.

Kuznetsov referred several times to removal of US "bases which threatened tbe Soviet Unlonas theyhadremoved their base ln Cuba which threatened the US."

The UN Secretary-General's office has already been in touch with the International Committee of the Red Cross, which has agreed to Inspect shipping reaching The ICRC is thinking in termstaff ofhich vould be briefed in New York before beginning Its work.

Foreign Minister Gromyko told Ambassador Kohlerthat the USSR wants to reach agreement as quickly as possible on the basis of the Kennedy-Khrushchev exchange of letters.

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Soviet UN officials appear to be trying to convince neutralist representatives that tbe lesson of the Cuban crisis ls "tbe sinister nature" of all foreign bases and the neod for their liquidation, in particular Guantanaao.

In the Geneva talksuclear testoviet delegate argued that the Cuban settlement reducestensionoint where the West should drop its demands for international controls and on-site inspection.

REACTION AND PROPAGANDA

Moscow propaganda expresses concern that tbe US still harbors aggressive intentions against Cuba and that Cuban exile groups are plotting against the Castro regime.has warned that the crisis has not ended and has called for "strict fulfillment" of US pledges of "noninterference in the 'internal affairs of Cuba. "

Soviet propaganda thus far gives no clear Indication

of policy decisions concerning future diplomaticoscow commentator, however, has endorsed Castro's five

demands ofctober as "justnd the East German Neues Deutschland also bas called for the US to evacuate its Guantanamo base.

Additional themes which haveair amount of emphasis ln Soviet broadcasts are calls for removal of the US quarantine of Cuba and for1the removal of US missile bases ln Turkey.

Izvestiya yesterday gaveelatively clear picture or Soviet withdrawal ln the face of US threats, but otherwise Moscow bas shown considerable sensitivity to suggestionsoviet retreat, balling the settlement asajor victory for Soviet policy."

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Chinese Communists are making their opposition to Soviet policy on Cuba increasingly clear. The editorial ln today's People's Dally says that President Kennedy bas given nothing but "empty promises" and that bis "so-called assurance" against Invading Cuba ishoax."

Usually reliable sources report that Latin American Communist parties are encountering considerable rank-and-file criticism of tbe USSR over the Cuban settlement. ommunist leader in Panama felt Khrushchev should have "sacrificed" Cuba inay as to provoke sympathy for Cuba and condemnation of the US. eader of tbe pro-Castro Chilean Socialist party noted that public opinion basturned against Cuba, and the party is reconsidering its pro-Castro stand.

No significant changes have been noted in theor readiness posture of the major Soviet and satellite military forces.

SOVIET BLOC SHIPPING TO CUBA

As0 EST there are five Soviet tankers (LISICHANSK, MIR, KARL MARX, GROZNY andour Soviet dry-cargo vesselsUGACHEV, MICHURINSK and CHERNYAKOVSK) and one Czechoslovak dry cargo vessel (KLADNO) en route to Cuba. As0 EST last night, the GROZNY and the BELOVODSK were waiting, dead ln the water, near the quarantine line. KLADNO was hove to in the same area onctober, but we have no later position report.

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