THE CRISIS USSR/CUBA

Created: 10/30/1962

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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I. THE SITUATION IN CUBA

Photographic coverage ofctober on Sagua La Grandend tbe Remedlos site was poor Id quality and does not permit any judgments regarding the nature of activity there. Yesterday's coverage of the Sanand Guanajay sites is not available for interpretation as0 EST.

Castro continues his effort to insinuate bis owninto tho Kennedy-Khrushchev agreement.' WeHavana

that some Cubans wereonont even before the agreement materialized. The alert in Cuba continues. Cuban exile organizations are despondent.

Castro insists that the US must meet his conditions before he vill be satisfied vith the US assurance that it

SOVIET DIPLOMATIC MOVES

The USSR is maneuvering; to bring its agreement onof offensive missiles from Cuba into line with its general disarmament stand. Soviet propaganda continues to work on portrayal of the agreementuccessful Soviet peace initiative, but in Peiping political circles,to one Western press report, it is described as aMunich."

The USSR is also trying to tie the US' hands byln its propaganda that President Kennedy's commitment not to Invade Cuba Includestop to anti-Castro activities by "counterrevolutionaries."

Moscow's refusal to allow UN inspection of the actual dismantling of the missiles appears to be at least in part an attempt to avoidrecedent which could be cited ln general disarmament negotiations. Soviet First Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsovhant in bis firstwith him onctoberN team can be sent to verify the dismantling after the USSR informs theCouncil that the process has been completed.

This fits with the standard Soviet position onthere will be no inspection of armaments, but only of disarmament, and then only to verify that thehas been completed.

Kuznetsov said tbe missiles were already beingin preparation for shipment. He did not sayhow long the process would take,hantthe Impression it would not be more thaneek or two."

Kuznetsov also made lt clear that the Sovietwould not permit UN teams to inspect Incoming Soviet ships to verify that they were not carrying offensive arms. He noted that Moscow would accept such Inspection by Red Cross representatives from neutral countries if they boarded the Soviet freighters from other Soviet or neutral ships. Kuznetsov offered no objectionsuggestion thatbe carried out in Cuban ports, if the Cuban government agreed.

Tho central theme of Moscow's propaganda commentary for the lastours has been to portray Khrushchev'sctober letter to the Presidentew peace initiative by tbe Soviet leader. Specific indications as to which-areas of International dispute may become the subject of new Soviet initiatives for negotiations are lacking,

The USSR ls still attempting to broaden tbe President's commitment not to Invade Cuba. Talk of the alleged anti-Castro activities of Cuban "counterrevolutionaries"to appear in bloc broadcasts,oviet commentator asking whether President Kennedy, ln permitting the "shady maneuverings" of these counterrevolutionaries to continue, is living up to his guarantee that Cuba will/not be Invaded.

Reaction from Pelping continues to be at variance with the propaganda from Moscow and Eastern Europe. Pelpingcarried an extensive TASS item on Khrushchev'sctober offer to swap missiles in Cuba for US missiles ln Turkey, but has played down the final agreement. An NCSA review of the Octoberelping press says that "topis given to Castro's "important" statement of Sunday upholding Cuba's Independence and sovereignty. estern news agency in Pelping reports that news ofetter was received with "surprise andnd that the highest political circles ln PelpingSoviet Munich."

SOVIET MILITARY STATUS

No major changes have been detected ln the pastours in the disposition or readiness posture of the major Soviet and satellite military forces.

Surveys of rail yards, highways and airfields ln the Moscow area onndctober revealed no indication of unusual military activity. Police surveillance of the attaches was reported to be normal. The army and air attaches ln Warsaw report no evidence of unusual movement by air or ground units ln Poland, and have heard no rumors of troop movements as had been tbe case during the Berlin crisis of

There haselaxation of Soviet restrictions on travel by western attaches. Onctober the Sovietspermissionrip by auto from Moscow tothe same day the request was made; such speed inequest is highly unusual.

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TOP SFPRET

TOP SLUiEX

SOVIET BLOC SHIPPING TO CUBA

During the two-day cessation of the quarantinehaot Is in Havana, three blocSoviet tankerne Soviet dry-cargo shipnd one Czech dry-cargo shipreach Cuba. These ships currently are lying dead ln the water withiniles of the quarantine line.

Tour other Sovietther Soviet dry-cargo vessels, and possibly another satellite dry-cargo vessel are an route to Cuba, the nearest still one day's sailing from the quarantine line.

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riun

The Soviet tanker GROZNY has been lying to since earlyctober Just inside the quarantine line. The Soviet dry-cargo vessel BBLOVODSI, vhich halted on the morning Ofh, is aboutiles east of the line, and the Csech vessel ILADNO stopped at nightfall onctober about 60

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