THE CRISIS USSR/CUBA

Created: 10/27/1962

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

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CRISIS USSR/CUBA

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PREPARED FOR THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

FURTHER DISSEMINATION UV INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT AUTHORIZED.

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SUMMARY CONTENTS

I. Based on the latest low-level reconnissance mission, three of the four MRBM sites at San Cristobal and the two sites at Sagua La Grande appear to be fully operational. No further sites or missiles have been identified.

The mobilization of Cuban military forces continuesigh rate. However, they remain under order's not to take any hostile action unless attacked.

Steps toward establishing an Integrated air defense system are under way. On the diplomatic front, Cubanare trying to plant the idea that Havana would be receptive to UN mediation. They indicate, however,rerequisite must be "proof" that the US does not intend to attack Cuba.

II. Despite Khrushchev*m declaration tohant that ships would temporarily avoid the quarantine area, wo have no information as yet that the six Soviet and threeships en route have changed course. wedish vessel,to be under charter to the USSR, refused to stopwhen interceptedS destroyer and was allowed toto Havana.

III. No significant redeployment of Soviet ground, air or naval forces have been noted. However, there are continuing indications of lncroased readiness among some units. lass submarines have been identified on the surface inside or near the quarantine line.

IV. There has been no distinct shift in tbe pattern of reaction, in Western Europe, further support for the US has come from several quarters and unfavorable reactions areln the minority.

Official London seems intent on checking premature op-taism which is showing up in widely scattered parts of the world, particularly among the neutrals. French support for the US ls hardening.

There are reports that anti-US demonstrations have broken out in several Latin American capitals, including Buenos Aires, Caracas, and La Paz.

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Detailed analysis ofctober low-altitudeconfirms the rapid pace of construction of tbe MRBM and IRBM sites.

San Cristobal MRBM Sites,agua La Grandere considered fully operational. TbeMRBM site,at San Cristobal will probably be fully operational onctober.

Guanajay IRBMill probably be fully operationalecember, while Guanajay IRBMnd Remedios IRBMill probably achieve full operational capability onecember. Road construction activity ln the Remedios area suggests the location of the expected second IRBM site there.

Low-level photography bas provided the first evidenceauncher for ungulded rockets in Cuba. This launcher, noted near Remedios, is probablyocketange of0 yards.

Cuban government is exploiting the arrival of atanker in Havana onctober to putropaganda display designed to demonstrate the "failure of the US

Reporting from Havana on Castro s ucxooeroamonted tbat Castro seemed tired and uncertain at the beginning of the speech and his audience of government and party leaders looked serious and even glum. He and they warmed up, however, to the strains of his familiar revolutionary slogans and rhetoric, commented that "Castro reiterated his readiness tohis people, but seems rather less concerned about whether they or anyone else remains alive."

Ambassador in Canadiress conference that Cuba cannot trust the United States until it has "proof" that the US will not attack Cuba. When asked what would constitute proof, heS guarantee to the UN not to attack Cuba, the lifting of thend the removal of Cuban exiles from Florida.

linister Roa flatly denied to

that there are "any sive weapons in Cuba." He was told in this meeting with Roa that Cuba would be willing "even to dissolve Its army" if it could obtain "effective guarantees for Itsand sovereignty."

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XI. SOVIET SHIPPING TO CUBA

Despite tbe declaration by Khrushchevhant that Soviet ships would avoid temporarily the USarea, there is no information to indicate that any of the six Soviet ships en route to Cuba have turnod back. The three satellite ships have also continued their course to Cuba.

The latest position roports available for the two Soviet dry cargo ships are for about noon onctober. The Bolovodsk at that time was still in tbe Northproceeding to Cuba. Sheixed load of non-military cargoes andelicopters. The E. Pugachev, carrying commercial cargoes, is still off the Mexican coast, and apparently proceeding toward the Panama Canal.

The latest available position reports for the four Soviet tankers show that they are still progressingCuba. The Grozny should reach the quarantine zone to

day. It

INicaro-; At Nicaro it will undoubtealy :ons of ammonia that it is carrying ln deck tanks. This ammonia will be used by the nickel refinery at Nicaro.

Theoviet dry cargo ships that were carryingcargoes to Cuba and headed back toward tbe USSR have continued to maintain their easterly course.

Onctober the Swedish vessel CoolangottaS destroyer. The Coolangotta refused to respond or to stop and was allowed to proceed to Bavana. The Coolangotta, reportedly under charter to the USSR,fron Leningradctober.

The East German passenger ship Voelkerfruendschaft and the Polish freighter Blalystok passed into thearea aboutctober and should arrive in Havana tod or tomorrow. Thezechoslovak ship ls still en routo to Cuba and i. expected to arrive in Havana onc tober. Both of the satellite cargo ships are estimated to be carrying ordinary commercial cp.rgoes.

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2 III. THE SITUATION IN THE BLOC A. MILITARY

Be have noted the following Soviet militaryan assessment of their significance will be issued later this morning by the USIB Watch Committee.

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lass submarine (conventional-powered attack type) was photographed well inside the quarantine line. Intwolass submarines have been identified just outside the line.

Khrushchev's Instructions to Soviet ships bound for Cuba to avoid tenporarily the Interception zoneby the US Navy, announced in responsehant'sctober appeal, Is intended tohow of Sovlot reasonableness and peaceful intentions and to play for time.

Khrushchev'sctober remarks to US businessman William Knox were also calculated to draw the US into talks on Cuba. He indicatedersonal meeting with the President was preferableN appearance for the purpose ofuban settlement. Heeeting in Moscow or Washington,endezvous at sea.

To point up the frultfulness of negotiations,remarked that he was "very pleased" with theof the Gromyko-Rusk talks on Berlin prior to 22 Consistent with current Soviet practice, he made no threats of retaliation in Berlin for US actions withto Cuba.

In his conversation with Mr. Knox, however, Khrushchev adhered to the line that President Kennedy wasiratical policy. Obviously expecting his remarks would be passed to Western leaders, Khrushchev said that the US can stop Soviet ships once, twice, or maybe three times, but somewhere along the line he would give orders toS blockader. He added that he might stop some US ships elsewhere.

Khrushchev noted that "we have anti-aircraft missiles and we have ballistic missiles with both nuclear and high explosive warheads already" in Cuba. In an effort tothe West, he stressed they were under strict Soviet control and would so remain. He avowed that he would never fire these missiles except in defense of Cuba or the Soviet Union. He nlzo stated that he would not be the first touclear weapon.

Soviet UN dolegate Zorin reportedly told u -roup of neutral African and Asian UN delegates that "the Americans are thoroughly mistaken If they think we shall fall into their trap. We shall undertake nothing In Berlin, foragainst Berlin is just what the Americans wouldorin went on to say that the USSR will do everything to preserve peace.

The Soviet press onctOD*TT*orffTnued to give heavy coverage to Cuba but with somewhat more emphasis than ln the previous two days on the necessity forwar and somewhat less on the alleged wave ofsweeping the world. Soviet broadcasts contrast the allegedly aggressive, hysterical US attitudes with peaceful Soviet movessincere desire to ease lnternatlonal tension."

East European propaganda mediaeavy flow of comment denouncing the US quarantine action, but emphasis appears to be turning from unrelievedof the United States to praise for the Soviet Union'! "calm" and "peaceful" response to the US move. There is also an effort to offset any notion that Sovietign of weakness. The Hungarian daily Nepszabad-aag asserts, for example, tbat "awareness of tremendous strength is the explanation of the calmness that emanates from the Soviet statement."

Reporting remains fragmentary on popular reaction in the East European satellites. Reports of panic buying have been received from Warsaw and Prague, but apparentlyesser scale than occurred last year during thecrisis. No demonstrations against the US have been reported forctober. Thereemonstration in East Germany onctober, as wellass "hands-off Cuba" demonstration ln East Berlin on tbe same day.

The Yugoslav government view of the Cuban situation, as expressed in the press and private conversationsS Embassy officer and others, has swung considerably in an anti-American direction during the lastours.

Peiping continues to devote extensive propaganda to Cuba but restricts itself largely to reportage ofprotests against US measures and broadcasts little original comment. The Chinese previously endorsed the Soviet government statement but indicated their preferenceirm bloc posture on the crisis.

I. NCN-BLOC REACTION

Reaction to yesterday's follow-up statement byhas been slow to come up. Before this thero wasin seme countries to see an easing cf thethe situation. The non-aligned countries 3eeri toonface-saving device" for theallies of the United States have expressedof support, but not all of then- have done so Asian neutrals have been reluctant to take aAfricans, apprehensive and taffled, remain Two CENTOandbeencome out with solid public, support of the United

Opinion in western Europe is divided on whether there has been an easing of the crisis. Hopefulness, mixed with lingering concern, is expressed in the Italian press. West German commentators consider that the immediate tension has declined, and there is an air of relief in West Berlin where scare-buying has fallen off. However, topsources in Britain, according to the press, taketo overly rosy views.

When Soviet charge Loginov in London told ForeignHome onctober that Moscow hoped Britain would help avert developments in Cuba, Home took an "extremely tough" line, repeating several times that nothing could be done until after the removal of tbe Soviet weapons. ally Mail poll shows% of Britons thought the US should' beisagreed. The deputy leader of the British Labor party, George Brown, urges that the US under no circumstances consider dickering with Moscow on Turkish bases.

the end of the year, Khrushchev had quickly to rectify the imbalance in strategic striking power. By moving In anof peaceful East-West relations, he hoped toa base inside the US warning network and present the USait accompli. He tndoubtedly expects some vigor-response from Washington, II but he felt the sites were worth the

Further support for the US has come from several quarters. In Spain, an emergency cabinet meeting called by France expressed its "completetalian Foreign Minister Piccioni told Ambassador Reinhardt onctober that Premier Fanfani had understated theof Italy's support for domestic political reasons.

The French Foreign Ministry at all levels continues to show solidarity and support of the US. Officials are aware of the possibility that the US may eventually have to use force against the Cuban bases; they have voiced no objection. The French press shows anunderstanding of the US position.

Austrian Foreign Minister Kreisky, who appears to endorse US views on Cuba but is concerned about Soviets publicly promoting the idea of an East-West deal to withdraw Soviet missiles in Cuba in exchange for the withdrawal of US missiles in Turkey and Italy. This idea has not been echoed in Italy, however, even by organs of the extreme left.

United Press reports eruption of violent rioting and terror bombing in more than half dozen Latincapitals. It states that La Paz, Bolivia, was the scene of street fighting near the United States Embassy involvingnti-American labor union members, pro-American demonstrators,and police reports five killed and twenty-six injured.

The wire service also reports that Buenos Aires and Caracas have been hit by demonstrations.

The Venezuelan Defense Ministry has requested riot control equipment and ammunition for all services against the contingency of an all-out Communist effort. Embassy Caracas considers this request to be of theurgency.

Evidence of the firmness of Argentine support for the US position continues to accumulate. The Argentine Army is considering making available two Infantry If Argentina should carry through on this

regard it would be tbe first'time Argentine troops bave served outside the national territory since the end of the Paraguayan War

The Bolivian Chamber of Deputies passed two anti-US resolutions on One demanded that Bolivia adhere to principles of non-intervention and The other condemned "repressive" US measures against Cuba without OAS consultation and reiteratedand self-determination themes. This action reinforces'^previous indications that the anti-US extreme left now dominates the official party.

Although Premier Adoula has assured Ambassador Gullion of tbe Congo's support, Adoula told tbe Egyptian ambassador onctober that he supported the neutrals ,in theirfor mediation of the crisis. He added that the United States quarantine was "an unlawful act which was pushinga world war." Elsewhere in Africa, Nkrumah bashimself to registering concern. Julius Nyerere of Tanganyika asserts that no matter what tbe Africans say, most of them think President Kennedy was right.

Nasir believes that Khrushchev basreat deal of prestige, accordingsually reliable source. eutral Cuba free of foreign bases, the lifting of tbe quarantine,Nof nuclear weapons exports to non-nuclearreportedly were dictated by Nasir himself.

The Philippine defense minister, with President Ma capa-gal's permission, reportedly will request the Philippine senate to invite the United States to set up missile bases in the islands.

Trinidad has assured American representatives that they will not grant overflight and landing privileges to Havana-bound Soviet aircraft. Although Senegal has given similars still scheduled to transit Dakar onctober nr. its way to Havana.

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